Towards a qAOP framework for predictive toxicology - Linking data to decisions.

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a conceptual construct that facilitates organisation and interpretation of mechanistic data representing multiple biological levels and deriving from a range of methodological approaches including in silico, in vitro and in vivo assays. AOPs are playing an increasingly important role in the chemical safety assessment paradigm and quantification of AOPs is an important step towards a more reliable prediction of chemically induced adverse effects. Modelling methodologies require the identification, extraction and use of reliable data and information to support the inclusion of quantitative considerations in AOP development. An extensive and growing range of digital resources are available to support the modelling of quantitative AOPs, providing a wide range of information, but also requiring guidance for their practical application. A framework for qAOP development is proposed based on feedback from a group of experts and three qAOP case studies. The proposed framework provides a harmonised approach for both regulators and scientists working in this area.

Human health risk-benefit assessment of fish and other seafood: a scoping review.

Fish and other seafood are important sources of nutrients, but they are also sources of chemical contaminants that may cause adverse health effects. This article aimed to identify existing risk-benefit assessments (RBA) of fish, shellfish, and other seafood, compare methodologies, discuss differences and commonalities in findings, and identify limitations and ways forward for future studies. We conducted a scoping review of the scientific literature of studies in all languages published from 2000 through April 2019. We identified 106 RBA of fish and other seafood across Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, and at the global level. Studies were heterogeneous in terms of types of fish and other seafood considered, beneficial and adverse compounds assessed, and overall methodology. Collected data showed that a diet consisting of a variety of lean and fatty fish and other seafood is recommended for the overall population and that women of childbearing age and children should limit the consumption of fish and other seafood types that have a high likelihood of contamination. Our review emphasizes the need for evidence-based, up-to-date, and harmonized approaches in RBA in general.

A generic PBTK model implemented in the MCRA platform: Predictive performance and uses in risk assessment of chemicals.

Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are important tools for in vitro to in vivo or inter-species extrapolations in health risk assessment of foodborne and non-foodborne chemicals. Here we present a generic PBTK model implemented in the EuroMix toolbox, MCRA 9 and predict internal kinetics of nine chemicals (three endocrine disrupters, three liver steatosis inducers, and three developmental toxicants), in data-rich and data-poor conditions, when increasingly complex levels of parametrization are applied. At the first stage, only QSAR models were used to determine substance-specific parameters, then some parameter values were refined by estimates from substance-specific or high-throughput in vitro experiments. At the last stage, elimination or absorption parameters were calibrated based on available in vivo kinetic data. The results illustrate that parametrization plays a capital role in the output of the PBTK model, as it can change how chemicals are prioritized based on internal concentration factors. In data-poor situations, estimates can be far from observed values. In many cases of chronic exposure, the PBTK model can be summarized by an external to internal dose factor, and interspecies concentration factors can be used to perform interspecies extrapolation. We finally discuss the implementation and use of the model in the MCRA risk assessment platform.

The MCRA toolbox of models and data to support chemical mixture risk assessment.

A model and data toolbox is presented to assess risks from combined exposure to multiple chemicals using probabilistic methods. The Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) toolbox, also known as the EuroMix toolbox, has more than 40 modules addressing all areas of risk assessment, and includes a data repository with data collected in the EuroMix project. This paper gives an introduction to the toolbox and illustrates its use with examples from the EuroMix project. The toolbox can be used for hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. Examples for hazard identification are selection of substances relevant for a specific adverse outcome based on adverse outcome pathways and QSAR models. Examples for hazard characterisation are calculation of benchmark doses and relative potency factors with uncertainty from dose response data, and use of kinetic models to perform in vitro to in vivo extrapolation. Examples for exposure assessment are assessing cumulative exposure at external or internal level, where the latter option is needed when dietary and non-dietary routes have to be aggregated. Finally, risk characterisation is illustrated by calculation and display of the margin of exposure for single substances and for the cumulation, including uncertainties derived from exposure and hazard characterisation estimates.

A retain and refine approach to cumulative risk assessment.

Mixtures of substances to which humans are exposed may lead to cumulative exposure and health effects. To study their effects, it is first necessary to identify a cumulative assessment group (CAG) of substances for risk assessment or hazard testing. Excluding substances from consideration before there is sufficient evidence may underestimate the risk. Conversely, including everything and treating the inevitable uncertainties using conservative assumptions is inefficient and may overestimate the risk, with an unknown level of protection. An efficient, transparent strategy is described to retain a large group, quantifying the uncertainty of group membership and other uncertainties. Iterative refinement of the CAG then focuses on adding information for the substances with high probability of contributing significantly to the risk. Probabilities can be estimated using expert opinion or derived from data on substance properties. An example is presented with 100 pesticides, in which the retain step identified a single substance to target refinement. Using an updated hazard characterisation for this substance reduced the mean exposure estimate from 0.43 to 0.28 µg kg-bw-1 day-1 and reduced the 99.99th percentile exposure from 24.9 to 5.1 µg kg-bw-1 day-1. Other retained substances contributed little to the risk estimates, even after accounting for uncertainty.

High-quality, genome-wide SNP genotypic data for pedigreed germplasm of the diploid outbreeding species apple, peach, and sweet cherry through a common workflow.

High-quality genotypic data is a requirement for many genetic analyses. For any crop, errors in genotype calls, phasing of markers, linkage maps, pedigree records, and unnoticed variation in ploidy levels can lead to spurious marker-locus-trait associations and incorrect origin assignment of alleles to individuals. High-throughput genotyping requires automated scoring, as manual inspection of thousands of scored loci is too time-consuming. However, automated SNP scoring can result in errors that should be corrected to ensure recorded genotypic data are accurate and thereby ensure confidence in downstream genetic analyses. To enable quick identification of errors in a large genotypic data set, we have developed a comprehensive workflow. This multiple-step workflow is based on inheritance principles and on removal of markers and individuals that do not follow these principles, as demonstrated here for apple, peach, and sweet cherry. Genotypic data was obtained on pedigreed germplasm using 6-9K SNP arrays for each crop and a subset of well-performing SNPs was created using ASSIsT. Use of correct (and corrected) pedigree records readily identified violations of simple inheritance principles in the genotypic data, streamlined with FlexQTL software. Retained SNPs were grouped into haploblocks to increase the information content of single alleles and reduce computational power needed in downstream genetic analyses. Haploblock borders were defined by recombination locations detected in ancestral generations of cultivars and selections. Another round of inheritance-checking was conducted, for haploblock alleles (i.e., haplotypes). High-quality genotypic data sets were created using this workflow for pedigreed collections representing the U.S. breeding germplasm of apple, peach, and sweet cherry evaluated within the RosBREED project. These data sets contain 3855, 4005, and 1617 SNPs spread over 932, 103, and 196 haploblocks in apple, peach, and sweet cherry, respectively. The highly curated phased SNP and haplotype data sets, as well as the raw iScan data, of germplasm in the apple, peach, and sweet cherry Crop Reference Sets is available through the Genome Database for Rosaceae.

An Integrated System for the Automated Recording and Analysis of Insect Behavior in T-maze Arrays.

Host-plant resistance to insects like thrips and aphids is a complex trait that is difficult to phenotype quickly and reliably. Here, we introduce novel hardware and software to facilitate insect choice assays and automate the acquisition and analysis of movement tracks. The hardware consists of an array of individual T-mazes allowing simultaneous release of up to 90 insect individuals from their individual cage below each T-maze with choice of two leaf disks under a video camera. Insect movement tracks are acquired with computer vision software (EthoVision) and analyzed with EthoAnalysis, a novel software package that allows for automated reporting of highly detailed behavior parameters and statistical analysis. To validate the benefits of the system we contrasted two Arabidopsis accessions that were previously analyzed for differential resistance to western flower thrips. Results of two trials with 40 T-mazes are reported and we show how we arrived at optimized settings for the different filters and statistics. The statistics are reported in terms of frequency, duration, distance and speed of behavior events, both as sum totals and event averages, and both for the total trial period and in time bins of 1 h. Also included are higher level analyses with subcategories like short-medium-long events and slow-medium-fast events. The time bins showed how some behavior elements are more descriptive of differences between the genotypes during the first hours, whereas others are constant or become more relevant at the end of an 8 h recording. The three overarching behavior categories, i.e., choice, movement, and halting, were automatically corrected for the percentage of time thrips were detected and 24 out of 38 statistics of behavior parameters differed by a factor 2-6 between the accessions. The analysis resulted in much larger contrasts in behavior traits than reported previously. Compared to leaf damage assays on whole plants or detached leaves that take a week or more to complete, results were obtained in 8 h, with more detail, fewer individuals and higher significance. The potential value of the new integrated system, named EntoLab, for discovery of genetic traits in plants and insects by high throughput screening of large populations is discussed.

Modelling aggregate exposure to pesticides from dietary and crop spray sources in UK residents.

Human exposure to pesticide mixtures can occur from the diet and other sources. Realistic exposure and risk assessments should include multiple sources and compounds and include the relative hazards of the different compounds. The EU-funded Euromix project is developing new web-based tools to facilitate these calculations. A case study is presented that exemplifies their use for a population of UK residents, including exposure from crop-spraying. A UK pesticide usage survey provided information on real pesticide combinations applied to crops of wheat, potatoes, sugar beet and dessert apples. This information was combined with outputs from two alternative simulation models of spray drift to estimate dermal, oral and inhalation exposures of residents. These non-dietary exposures were combined with dietary exposure estimates using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment software to produce a distribution of aggregated and cumulative exposures. Compounds are weighted by relative potency to generate a measure of overall risk. Uncertainty quantification was also included in the distribution of exposures. These tools are flexible to allow diverse sources of exposure and can provide important information to decision-makers and help to prioritise testing of pesticide mixtures. Including non-dietary sources changed the prioritisation of pesticide mixtures, when compared to dietary exposure alone.

A high-density, multi-parental SNP genetic map on apple validates a new mapping approach for outcrossing species.

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping approaches rely on the correct ordering of molecular markers along the chromosomes, which can be obtained from genetic linkage maps or a reference genome sequence. For apple (Malus domestica Borkh), the genome sequence v1 and v2 could not meet this need; therefore, a novel approach was devised to develop a dense genetic linkage map, providing the most reliable marker-loci order for the highest possible number of markers. The approach was based on four strategies: (i) the use of multiple full-sib families, (ii) the reduction of missing information through the use of HaploBlocks and alternative calling procedures for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, (iii) the construction of a single backcross-type data set including all families, and (iv) a two-step map generation procedure based on the sequential inclusion of markers. The map comprises 15 417 SNP markers, clustered in 3 K HaploBlock markers spanning 1 267 cM, with an average distance between adjacent markers of 0.37 cM and a maximum distance of 3.29 cM. Moreover, chromosome 5 was oriented according to its homoeologous chromosome 10. This map was useful to improve the apple genome sequence, design the Axiom Apple 480 K SNP array and perform multifamily-based QTL studies. Its collinearity with the genome sequences v1 and v3 are reported. To our knowledge, this is the shortest published SNP map in apple, while including the largest number of markers, families and individuals. This result validates our methodology, proving its value for the construction of integrated linkage maps for any outbreeding species.

PediHaplotyper: software for consistent assignment of marker haplotypes in pedigrees.

In the study of large outbred pedigrees with many founders, individual bi-allelic markers, such as SNP markers, carry little information. After phasing the marker genotypes, multi-allelic loci consisting of groups of closely linked markers can be identified, which are called "haploblocks". Here, we describe PediHaplotyper, an R package capable of assigning consistent alleles to such haploblocks, allowing for missing and incorrect SNP data. These haploblock genotypes are much easier to interpret by the human investigator than the original SNP data and also allow more efficient QTL analyses that require less memory and computation time.

New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncertainties that should be addressed as part of risk analysis and decision-making. A general approach is outlined for identifying and classifying the relevant uncertainties and variabilities. The implementation of uncertainty analysis within the MCRA software, developed as part of the EU-funded ACROPOLIS project to address some of these uncertainties, is demonstrated. An example is presented for dietary and non-dietary exposures to the triazole class of compounds. This demonstrates the chaining of models, linking variability and uncertainty generated from an external model for bystander exposure with variability and uncertainty in MCRA dietary exposure assessments. A new method is also presented for combining pesticide usage survey information with limited residue monitoring data, to address non-detect uncertainty. The results show that incorporating usage information reduces uncertainty in parameters of the residue distribution but that in this case quantifying uncertainty is not a priority, at least for UK grown crops. A general discussion of alternative approaches to treat uncertainty, either quantitatively or qualitatively, is included.

A European model and case studies for aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds.

The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure.

Multi-objective evolutionary design of adenosine receptor ligands.

A novel multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) for de novo design was developed and applied to the discovery of new adenosine receptor antagonists. This method consists of several iterative cycles of structure generation, evaluation, and selection. We applied an evolutionary algorithm (the so-called Molecule Commander) to generate candidate A1 adenosine receptor antagonists, which were evaluated against multiple criteria and objectives consisting of high (predicted) affinity and selectivity for the receptor, together with good ADMET properties. A pharmacophore model for the human A1 adenosine receptor (hA1AR) was created to serve as an objective function for evolution. In addition, three support vector machine models based on molecular fingerprints were developed for the other adenosine receptor subtypes (hA2A, hA2B, and hA3) and applied as negative objective functions, to aim for selectivity. Structures with a higher evolutionary fitness with respect to ADMET and pharmacophore matching scores were selected as input for the next generation and thus developed toward overall fitter ("better") compounds. We finally obtained a collection of 3946 unique compounds from which we derived chemical scaffolds. As a proof-of-principle, six of these templates were selected for actual synthesis and subsequently tested for activity toward all adenosine receptors subtypes. Interestingly, scaffolds 2 and 3 displayed low micromolar affinity for many of the adenosine receptor subtypes. To further investigate our evolutionary design method, we performed systematic modifications on scaffold 3. These modifications were guided by the substitution patterns as observed in the set of generated compounds that contained scaffold 3. We found that an increased affinity with appreciable selectivity for hA1AR over the other adenosine receptor subtypes was achieved through substitution of the scaffold; compound 3a had a Ki value of 280 nM with approximately 10-fold selectivity with respect to hA2AR, while 3g had a 1.6 µM affinity for hA1AR with negligible affinity for the hA2A, hA2B, and hA3 receptor subtypes.