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BACKGROUND: Geographical and meteorological factors have been reported to influence the prevalence of echinococcosis, but there's a lack of indicator system and model. OBJECTIVE: To provide further insight into the impact of geographical and meteorological factors on AE prevalence and establish a theoretical basis for prevention and control. METHODS: Principal component and regression analysis were used to screen and establish a three-level indicator system. Relative weights were examined to determine the impact of each indicator, and five mathematical models were compared to identify the best predictive model for AE epidemic levels. RESULTS: By analyzing the data downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Service Center and Geospatial Data Cloud, we established the KCBIS, including 50 basic indicators which could be directly obtained online, 15 characteristic indicators which were linear combination of the basic indicators and showed a linear relationship with AE epidemic, and 8 key indicators which were characteristic indicators with a clearer relationships and fewer mixed effects. The relative weight analysis revealed that monthly precipitation, monthly cold days, the difference between negative and positive temperature anomalies, basic air temperature conditions, altitude, the difference between positive and negative atmospheric pressure anomalies, monthy extremely hot days, and monthly fresh breeze days were correlated with the natural logarithm of AE prevalence, with sequential decreases in their relative weights. The multinomial logistic regression model was the best predictor at epidemic levels 1, 3, 5, and 6, whereas the CART model was the best predictor at epidemic levels 2, 4, and 5.
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What is already known about this topic?: Echinococcosis is classified as a Class C infectious disease in China. It is endemic in 370 counties located in the agricultural and pastoral regions of western China. What is added by this report?: This report provides a comprehensive overview of the cases of echinococcosis reported in China in 2022. Following a thorough evaluation conducted by provincial CDCs, it was identified that 105 new cases were not reported through the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. Furthermore, there were 1,051 cases that were reported among patients who had been previously diagnosed with echinococcosis. What are the implications for public health practice?: The reported cases of echinococcosis in non-endemic counties of provincial-level administrative divisions where the disease is endemic need to be given more attention, as there is a potential risk of it spreading within the non-endemic areas. Inadequate reporting practices by clinical medical institutions are hindering the subsequent investigations carried out by CDCs. It is important to implement enhanced health promotion efforts that focus on high-risk populations to address unhealthy lifestyles.
RESUMEN
WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: Echinococcosis, also known as hydatid disease, is a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the larvae of Echinococcus granulosus. Western China has one of the most severe epidemics worldwide. Echinococcosis is endemic in 370 counties of 9 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC). WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: From 2017 to 2020, 244 cases were reported in 21 non-endemic PLADs. Of the cases reported in non-endemic PLADs, the majority were imported from endemic areas. Cases reported from non-endemic PLADs have been sporadic, and the number has increased in some areas. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: Migrant workers and livestock from endemic areas may have contributed to the increased incidence of locally acquired infections in non-endemic PLADs, suggesting that health education among workers and livestock quarantine is important for the control of spread in non-endemic PLADs.