RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In several health economic analyses of rotavirus vaccines in Japan, all were not cost-effective from the healthcare payer perspective (HPP) but generally cost-effective from the societal perspective (SP). However, few studies have incorporated clinically significant factors of vaccine herd immunity, convulsions with gastroenteritis, encephalopathies, nosocomial infections, death, and intussusception as a vaccine side effect. A cost-utility analysis incorporating these were conducted. METHODS: We used Bakir's decision-tree model and data in Japan with 94% coverage rate, 5-year time horizon, and 2% discount. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a willingness-to-pay of Japanese Yen (JPY) 5 million from HPP and SP. Scenario 1 examined items based on existing research; scenario 2 additionally examined the above-mentioned items. In scenario 2, break-even prices were determined, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: In scenario 1, the ICER was JPY 6,057,281 from the HPP and dominant from the SP. In scenario 2, it was JPY 3,713,488 from the HPP. From the HPP in scenario 2, break-even prices were JPY 34,227 for an ICER of JPY 5 million and JPY 17,798 for cost-saving. One-way sensitivity analysis showed ICERs fluctuated widely with ambulatory visits and vaccination costs. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ICERs of 54.8% were less than the willingness-to-pay. In scenario 2, from the SP, vaccines were dominant. CONCLUSION: From the HPP in scenario 2, the vaccines were cost-effective. In the sensitivity analyses, ICERs also improved from the HPP over previous studies. Herd immunity for ambulatory visits contributed most to the decline.
