Caregiving for China's one-child generation: a simulation study of caregiving responsibility and impact on women's time use.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction, strict enforcement and recent exit of China's one-child policy (OCP) resulted in China's demographical changes, and, alongside its epidemiological transition, disproportionately impacted caregiving needs and demands on women. This study examines women's caregiving responsibilities in contemporary China and evaluates how the OCP affected them. METHODS: We simulated the female population aged 25-54 years in 2020 in China and their caregiving responsibilities based on epidemiological and demographic data for women, their parents and parents-in-law, and children under 10. Three different health states were simulated for children and the senior generation: (1) healthy, (2) end of life-decedents and (3) non-decedents in need of palliative care. We combine the care responsibility for senior family members and for children using an aggregate indicator-the Care Responsibility Score (CRS) -to compare the impact of the OCP across different generations of women. RESULTS: Approximately 60 million working-age women are living with medium to high levels of care responsibilities (a CRS over 0.8), which is equivalent to caring for a senior family member with palliative care needs without any assistance from siblings. This includes more than one-third of the 156 million women born after the OCP and only 5% of women born before the OCP. CONCLUSION: For women born under the OCP, the additional responsibility generated by a lack of siblings outweighs the benefit of having four dedicated grandparents to support them in raising children.

Global Assessment of Palliative Care Need: Serious Health-Related Suffering Measurement Methodology.

CONTEXT: Inequities and gaps in palliative care access are a serious impediment to health systems especially in low- and middle-income countries and the accurate measurement of need across health conditions is a critical step to understanding and addressing the issue. Serious Health-related Suffering (SHS) is a novel methodology to measure the palliative care need and was originally developed by The Lancet Commission on Global Access to Palliative Care and Pain Relief. In 2015, the first iteration - SHS 1.0 - was estimated at over 61 million people worldwide experiencing at least 6 billion days of SHS annually as a result of life-limiting and life-threatening conditions. OBJECTIVES: In this paper, an updated methodology - SHS 2.0 - is presented building on the work of the Lancet Commission and detailing calculations, data requirements, limitations, and assumptions. METHODS AND RESULTS: The updates to the original methodology focus on measuring the number of people who die with (decedents) or live with (non-decedents) SHS in a given year to assess the number of people in need of palliative care across health conditions and populations. Detail on the methodology for measuring the number of days of SHS that was pioneered by the Lancet Commission, is also shared, as this second measure is essential for determining the health system responses that are necessary to address palliative care need and must be a priority for future methodological work on SHS. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology encompasses opportunities for applying SHS to future policy making assessment of future research priorities particularly in light of the dearth of data from low- and middle-income countries, and sharing of directions for future work to develop SHS 3.0.

Association between concurrence of multiple risk factors and under-5 mortality: a pooled analysis of data from Demographic and Health Survey in 61 low-and-middle-income countries.

Background: Exposure to multiple risk factors is prevalent in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), challenging one-directional strategies to address preventable under-5 mortality (U5M). This study aims to assess the associations between concurrence of multiple risk factors and U5M in LMICs. Methods: We extracted data from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2010 and 2021 across 61 LMICs. Our primary outcome was U5M, defined as deaths from birth to 59 months. Binary logistic regression model was applied to ascertain the association between U5M and a total of 20 critical risk factors. Upon identifying the risk factors demonstrating the strongest associations, we investigated the simultaneous presence of multiple risk factors in each individual and assessed their combined effects on U5M with logistic regression models. Findings: Of the 604,372 under-5 children, 18,166 (3.0%) died at the time of the survey. Unsatisfied family planning needs was the strongest risk factor for U5M (odds ratio [OR]: 2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-2.1), followed by short birth interval (<18 months; OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.9-2.1), small birth size (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.8-2.1), never breastfed or delayed breastfeeding (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.9-2.0), and low maternal education (OR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4-1.8). 66.7% (66.6%-66.8%) of the children had 2 or more leading risk factors simultaneously. Simultaneous presence of multiple leading risk factors was significantly associated with elevated risk of U5M and children presenting with all 5 leading risk factors exhibited an exceedingly high risk of U5M (OR: 5.2, 95% CI: 4.3-6.3); a dose-response relationship between the number of risk factors and U5M was also observed-with the increment of numbers of leading risk factors, the U5M showed an increasing trend (p-trend < 0.001). Interpretation: Exposure to multiple risk factors is very common in LMICs and underscores the necessity of developing multisectoral and integrated approaches to accelerate progress in reducing U5M in line with the SDG 3.2. Funding: This research is funded by Research Fund, Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University.

Palliative care need in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and human resource requirements for effective response.

Integration of palliative care into health care systems is considered an ethical responsibility, yet no country in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EaMReg) has achieved integration. Data on palliative care need and cost are crucial forEaMReg health care planners and implementers in the region. Using data from the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, we estimated the number of people in each EaMReg country who needed palliative care in 2015 and their degree of access. In three countries, we estimated the number of days during which an encounter for palliative care was needed at each level of the health care system. This enabled calculation of the number of full-time equivalents (FTEs) of clinical and non-clinical staff members needed at each level to administer the essential package of palliative care recommended by WHO. In 2015, 3.2 million people in the EaMReg needed palliative care, yet most lacked access to it. The most common types of suffering were pain, fatigue, weakness, anxiety or worry, and depressed mood. To provide safe, effective palliative care at all levels of health care systems, between 5.4 and 11.1 FTEs of trained and supervised community health workers per 100,000 population would be needed in addition to 1.0-1.9 FTEs of doctors, 2.2-4.3 FTEs of nurses, and 1.4-2.9 FTEs of social workers. Data from our study enables design of palliative care services to meet the specific needs of each EaMReg country and to calculate the cost or cost savings.

Effect of Training on Physicians' Palliative Care-Related Knowledge and Attitudes in Vietnam.

CONTEXT: Palliative care remains largely inaccessible in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and efforts to increase access are impeded by lack of training of proven effectiveness for physicians. OBJECTIVES: To measure the effectiveness of palliative care training for Vietnamese physicians. METHODS: The palliative care-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessment of Vietnamese physicians were studied prior to a basic course in palliative care (baseline), just after the physicians completed the course (post), and 6-18 months later (follow-up). RESULTS: The self-assessment scores and knowledge scores increased significantly from baseline to post and decreased significantly from post to follow-up, but the follow-up scores remained significantly higher than baseline. There were significant interactions between changes over time of the knowledge scores and baseline age, degree, years of graduation, training, type of work, and whether participants had ever prescribed morphine for pain. Medically appropriate attitudes increased significantly from baseline to post and did not decrease significantly from post to follow-up. CONCLUSION: Our basic palliative care course in Vietnam resulted in significant and enduring improvements among physicians in palliative care-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessed competence. To respond to the enormous unmet need for palliative care in LMICs, primary care providers and physician-specialists in many fields, among others, should receive palliative care training of proven effectiveness, receive ongoing mentoring or refresher training, and be given the responsibility and opportunity to practice what they learn.

Bridging gaps to universal palliative care access in Chile: serious health-related suffering and the cost of expanding the package of care services.

Background: The Lancet Commission on Palliative Care (PC) and Pain Relief quantified the burden of serious health-related suffering (SHS), proposing an Essential Package of PC (EPPC) to narrow the global PC divide. We applied the EPPC framework to analyze PC access in Chile, identify gaps in coverage, and provide recommendations to improve PC access. Methods: Total SHS and population in need of PC was estimated using official 2019 government data. We differentiated between cancer and non-cancer related SHS given guaranteed Chilean PC coverage for cancer. We calculated differences between the Chilean PC package and the Lancet Commission EPPC to estimate the cost of expanding to achieve national coverage of palliative care. Findings: In 2019, nearly 105,000 decedent and non-decedent Chileans experienced SHS with a lower-bound estimate of 12.1 million days and an upper-bound estimate of 42.4 million days of SHS. Each individual experienced between 116 and 520 days of SHS per year. People living with a cancer diagnosis had PC access with financial protection, accounting for almost 42% of patients in need. People with non-cancer diagnoses-about 61 thousand patients-lacked PC coverage. Expanding coverage of the EPPC for all patients in need would cost just above $123 million USD, equivalent to 0.47% of Chilean National Health Expenditure. Interpretation: Achieving universal PC access is urgent and feasible for Chile, classified as a high-income country. Expanding PC services and coverage to the EPPC standard are affordable and critical health system responses to ensuring financial protection for patients with SHS. In Chile, this requires closing large gaps in PC coverage pertaining to patients with non-cancer conditions and treatment of symptoms that go beyond pain. Our research provides an empirical approach for applying the Lancet Commission SHS framework to estimate the cost of achieving national universal PC access anchored in a package of health care services. Funding: This research was partially funded by the Chilean Government through the Fondo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (Fondecyt Regular) grant number 1201721, the U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee grant AWD-003806 awarded to the University of Miami and by the University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas. We acknowledge NIH/NCI award P30CA008748.

Frequency and duration of suffering of cervical cancer patients and caregivers: Results from an international Delphi study.

This paper describes a Delphi process executed between August and September, 2020, to identify types of physical, psychological, social and spiritual suffering and their severity, prevalence and duration associated with cervical cancer to enable estimation of the global and regional palliative care needs of these cervical cancer patients and their family caregivers. Patients were dichotomized into decedents (those who died of cervical cancer in any given year) and non-decedents (those who had cervical cancer in any given year but did not die in that year). A two-round web-based Delphi study was conducted using a panel of 12 experts with first-hand experience taking care of cervical cancer patients and their family caregivers, two from each World Health Organization (WHO) region. We identified thirteen types of physical suffering, six psychological types, three social types and three spiritual types. Frequencies and durations were given for each of the suffering types for a decedent, a non-decedent and a primary family caregiver. Our findings of the types, severity, frequency and duration of suffering associated with cervical cancer should inform global, regional, national and local health care strategic planning so that the health investments can be better aligned with the needs.

Economic evaluations of health system strengthening activities in low-income and middle-income country settings: a methodological systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Health system strengthening (HSS) activities should accompany disease-targeting interventions in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Economic evaluations provide information on how these types of investment might best be balanced but can be challenging. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate how researchers address these economic evaluation challenges. METHODS: We identified studies about economic evaluation of HSS activities in LMICs using a two-stage approach. First, we conducted a broad search to identify areas where economic evaluations of HSS activities were being conducted. Next, we selected specific interventions for more targeted literature review. We extracted study characteristics using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. Finally, we summarised authors' modelling decisions using a framework that examines how models are developed to emphasise generalisability, precision, or realism. FINDINGS: Our searches produced 1978 studies, out of which we included 36. Most studies used data from prospective trials and calculated cost-effectiveness directly from these trial inputs, rather than using simulation methods. As a group, these studies primarily emphasised precision and realism over generalisability, meaning that their results were best suited to specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: The number of included studies was small. Our findings suggest that most economic evaluations of HSS do not leverage methods like sensitivity analyses or inputs from literature review that would produce more generalisable (but potentially less precise) results. More research into how decision-makers would use economic evaluations to define the expansion path to strengthening health systems would allow for conceptualising impactful work on the economic value of HSS.

Decolonizing global health: what should be the target of this movement and where does it lead us?

The current decolonizing global health movement is calling us to take a post-colonial perspective at the research and practice of global health, an area that has been re-defined by contemporary scholars and advocates with the purpose of promoting equity and justice. In this article, we summarize the main points of discussion from the Symposium organized by the editorial board of Global Health Research and Policy, convened in July 2021 in Wuhan, China. Experts participating in the symposium discussed what decolonizing global health means, how to decolonize it, and what criteria to apply in measuring its completion. Through the meeting, a consensus was reached that the current status quo of global health is still replete with various forms of colonial vestiges-ideologies and practices-, and to fully decolonize global health, systemic reforms must be taken that target the fundamental assumptions of global health: does investment in global health bring socioeconomic development, or is it the other way around? Three levels of colonial vestiges in global health were raised and one guiding principle was proposed when thinking of solutions for them. More theoretical discussion needs to be explored to guide practices to decolonize global health.

Health priority-setting for official development assistance in low-income and middle-income countries: a Best Fit Framework Synthesis study with primary data from Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Decision making process for Official Development Assistance (ODA) for healthcare sector in low-income and middle-income countries involves multiple agencies, each with their unique power, priorities and funding mechanisms. This process at country level has not been well studied. METHODS: This paper developed and applied a new framework to analyze decision-making process for priority setting in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania, and collected primary data to validate and refine the model. The framework was developed following a scoping review of published literature. Interviews were then conducted using a pre-determined interview guide developed by the research team. Transcripts were reviewed and coded based on the framework to identify what principles, players, processes, and products were considered during priority setting. Those elements were further used to identify where the potential capacity of local decision-makers could be harnessed. RESULTS: A framework was developed based on 40 articles selected from 6860 distinct search records. Twenty-one interviews were conducted in three case countries from 12 institutions. Transcripts or meeting notes were analyzed to identify common practices and specific challenges faced by each country. We found that multiple stakeholders working around one national plan was the preferred approach used for priority setting in the countries studied. CONCLUSIONS: Priority setting process can be further strengthened through better use of analytical tools, such as the one described in our study, to enhance local ownership of priority setting for ODA and improve aid effectiveness.

Research capacity of global health institutions in China: a gap analysis focusing on their collaboration with other low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: This paper presented qualitative and quantitative data collected on the research capacity of global health institutions in China and aimed to provide a landscaping review of the development of global health as a new discipline in the largest emerging economy of the world. METHODS: Mixed methods were used and they included a bibliometric analysis, a standardised survey and indepth interviews with top officials of 11 selected global health research and educational institutions in mainland China. RESULTS: The bibliometric analysis revealed that each institution had its own focus areas, some with a balanced focus among chronic illness, infectious disease and health systems, while others only focused on one of these areas. Interviews of key staff from each institution showed common themes: recognition that the current research capacity in global health is relatively weak, optimism towards the future, as well as an emphasis on mutual beneficial networking with other countries. Specific obstacles raised and the solutions applied by each institution were listed and discussed. CONCLUSION: Global health institutions in China are going through a transition from learning and following established protocols to taking a more leading role in setting up China's own footprint in this area. Gaps still remain, both in comparison with international institutions, as well as between the leading Chinese institutions and those that have just started. More investment needs to be made, from both public and private domains, to improve the overall capacity as well as the mutual learning and communication within the academic community in China.

Cervical Cancer-Associated Suffering: Estimating the Palliative Care Needs of a Highly Vulnerable Population.

PURPOSE: To enable design of optimum palliative care for women with cervical cancer, we studied the most common types of suffering and their severity, prevalence, and duration. METHODS: We first reviewed the literature on the major types, severity, prevalence, and duration of suffering associated with cervical cancer. We then conducted a modified Delphi process with experts in cervical cancer care to supplement the literature. For each type of suffering, we distinguished between decedents (those who die from cervical cancer in a given year) and nondecedents (those who have cervical cancer in a given year but do not die). By applying the suffering prevalence and duration estimates to the number of decedents, nondecedents, and family caregivers in 2017, we were able to estimate their palliative care needs and the intensity of palliative care needed to respond adequately to this suffering. RESULTS: There is a high prevalence among decedents of moderate or severe pain (84%), vaginal discharge (66%), vaginal bleeding (61%), and loss of faith (31%). Among both decedents and nondecedents, there is a high prevalence of clinically significant anxiety (63% and 50%, respectively), depressed mood (52% and 38%, respectively), and sexual dysfunction (87% and 83%, respectively). Moderate or severe financial distress is prevalent among decedents, nondecedents, and family caregivers (84%, 74%, and 66%, respectively). More than 40% of decedents and nondecedents are abandoned by their intimate partners. Most patients experience some combination of moderate or severe physical, psychological, social, and spiritual suffering. In total, 258,649 decedents and 2,558,857 nondecedents needed palliative care in 2017, approximately 85% of whom were in low- and middle-income countries where palliative care is rarely accessible. CONCLUSION: Among women with advanced cervical cancer, suffering is highly prevalent and often severe and multifaceted.

Essential Package of Palliative Care for Women With Cervical Cancer: Responding to the Suffering of a Highly Vulnerable Population.

Women with cervical cancer, especially those with advanced disease, appear to experience suffering that is more prevalent, complex, and severe than that caused by other cancers and serious illnesses, and approximately 85% live in low- and middle-income countries where palliative care is rarely accessible. To respond to the highly prevalent and extreme suffering in this vulnerable population, we convened a group of experienced experts in all aspects of care for women with cervical cancer, and from countries of all income levels, to create an essential package of palliative care for cervical cancer (EPPCCC). The EPPCCC consists of a set of interventions, medicines, simple equipment, social supports, and human resources, and is designed to be safe and effective for preventing and relieving all types of suffering associated with cervical cancer. It includes only inexpensive and readily available medicines and equipment, and its use requires only basic training. Thus, the EPPCCC can and should be made accessible everywhere, including for the rural poor. We provide guidance for integrating the EPPCCC into gynecologic and oncologic care at all levels of health care systems, and into primary care, in countries of all income levels.

Augmented Package of Palliative Care for Women With Cervical Cancer: Responding to Refractory Suffering.

The essential package of palliative care for cervical cancer (EPPCCC), described elsewhere, is designed to be safe and effective for preventing and relieving most suffering associated with cervical cancer and universally accessible. However, it appears that women with cervical cancer, more frequently than patients with other cancers, experience various types of suffering that are refractory to basic palliative care such as what can be provided with the EPPCCC. In particular, relief of refractory pain, vomiting because of bowel obstruction, bleeding, and psychosocial suffering may require additional expertise, medicines, or equipment. Therefore, we convened a group of experienced experts in all aspects of care for women with cervical cancer, and from countries of all income levels, to create an augmented package of palliative care for cervical cancer with which even suffering refractory to the EPPCCC often can be relieved. The package consists of medicines, radiotherapy, surgical procedures, and psycho-oncologic therapies that require advanced or specialized training. Each item in this package should be made accessible whenever the necessary resources and expertise are available.

Health gains and financial risk protection afforded by public financing of selected malaria interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a public health burden and a major cause for morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia. Malaria also places a substantial financial burden on families and Ethiopia's national economy. Economic evaluations, with evidence on equity and financial risk protection (FRP), are therefore essential to support decision-making for policymakers to identify best buys amongst possible malaria interventions. The aim of this study is to estimate the expected health and FRP benefits of universal public financing of key malaria interventions in Ethiopia. METHODS: Using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA), the potential health and FRP benefits were estimated, and their distributions across socio-economic groups, of publicly financing a 10% coverage increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and malaria vaccine (hypothetical). RESULTS: ACT, LLIN, IRS, and vaccine would avert 358, 188, 107 and 38 deaths, respectively, each year at a net government cost of $5.7, 16.5, 32.6, and 5.1 million, respectively. The annual cost of implementing IRS would be two times higher than that of the LLIN interventions, and would be the main driver of the total costs. The averted deaths would be mainly concentrated in the poorest two income quintiles. The four interventions would eliminate about $4,627,800 of private health expenditures, and the poorest income quintiles would see the greatest FRP benefits. ACT and LLINs would have the largest impact on malaria-related deaths averted and FRP benefits. CONCLUSIONS: ACT, LLIN, IRS, and vaccine interventions would bring large health and financial benefits to the poorest households in Ethiopia.

Health system modelling research: towards a whole-health-system perspective for identifying good value for money investments in health system strengthening.

Global health research has typically focused on single diseases, and most economic evaluation research to date has analysed technical health interventions to identify 'best buys'. New approaches in the conduct of economic evaluations are needed to help policymakers in choosing what may be good value (ie, greater health, distribution of health, or financial risk protection) for money (ie, per budget expenditure) investments for health system strengthening (HSS) that tend to be programmatic. We posit that these economic evaluations of HSS interventions will require developing new analytic models of health systems which recognise the dynamic connections between the different components of the health system, characterise the type and interlinks of the system's delivery platforms; and acknowledge the multiple constraints both within and outside the health sector which limit the system's capacity to efficiently attain its objectives. We describe priority health system modelling research areas to conduct economic evaluation of HSS interventions and ultimately identify good value for money investments in HSS.

Solving the Global Crisis in Access to Pain Relief: Lessons From Country Actions.

Annually, more than 61 million people worldwide experience about 6 billion days of serious health-related suffering that could be alleviated with access to palliative care and pain relief. However, palliative care is limited or nonexistent in most parts of the world. The access abyss is so stark that 50% of the world's poorest populations live in countries that receive only 1% of the opioid analgesics distributed worldwide. By contrast, the richest 10% of the world's population live in countries that receive nearly 90% of the opioid pain relief medications.The Lancet Commission on Global Access to Palliative Care and Pain Relief developed a framework to measure the global burden of serious health-related suffering and generated the evidence base to address this burden.We present the inequities in access to pain relief and highlight key points from country responses, drawing from and building on recommendations of the Lancet Commission report "Alleviating the Access Abyss in Palliative Care and Pain Relief-An Imperative of Universal Health Coverage" to close the access abyss in relief of pain and other types of serious health-related suffering.

Avoidable Mortality: The Core of the Global Cancer Divide.

Purpose The incidence of infection-associated cancers and lethality of cancers amenable to treatment are closely correlated with the income of countries. We analyzed a core part of this global cancer divide-the distribution of premature mortality across country income groups and cancers-applying novel approaches to measure avoidable mortality and identify priorities for public policy. Methods We analyzed avoidable cancer mortality using set lower- and upper-bound age limits of 65 and 75 years (empirical approach), applying cancer-specific and country income group-specific ages of death (feasibility approach), and applying cancer-specific ages of death of high-income countries to all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; social justice approach). We applied these methods to 2015 mortality data on 16 cancers for which prevention is possible and/or treatment is likely to result in cure or significant increase in life expectancy. Results At least 30% and as much as 50% of cancer deaths are premature, corresponding to between 2.6 and 4.3 million deaths each year, and 70% to 80% are concentrated in LMICs. Using the feasibility approach, 36% of cancer deaths are avoidable; with the social justice approach, 45% of cancer deaths are avoidable. Five cancer types-breast, colorectal, lung, liver, and stomach-account for almost 75% of avoidable cancer deaths in LMICs and worldwide. Conclusion Each year, millions of premature cancer deaths could be avoided with interventions focused on four priority areas: infection-associated cancers, lifestyle and risk factors, women's cancers, and children's cancers. Our analysis of the global burden and the specific cancer types associated with avoidable cancer mortality suggests significant opportunities for health systems to redress the inequity of the global cancer divide.