Predictive usefulness of qSOFA, NEWS and GYM scores in the elderly patient: EDEN-5 study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prognostic accuracy of the scores NEWS, qSOFA, GYM used in hospital emergency department (ED) in the assessment of elderly patients who consult for an infectious disease. METHODS: Data from the EDEN (Emergency Department and Elderly Need) cohort were used. This retrospective cohort included all patients aged ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs during two weeks (from 1-4-2019 to 7-4-2019 and 30/3/2020 to 5/4/2020) with an infectious disease diagnosis in the emergency department. Demographic variables, demographic variables, comorbidities, Charlson and Barthel index and needed scores parameters were recorded. The predictive capacity for 30-day mortality of each scale was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated for different cut-off points. The primary outcome variable was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 6054 patients were analyzed. Median age was 80 years (IQR 73-87) and 45.3% women. 993 (16,4%) patients died. NEWS score had better AUC than qSOFA (0.765, 95CI: 0.725-0.806, versus 0.700, 95%CI: 0.653-0.746; P < .001) and GYM (0.716, 95%CI: 0.675-0.758; P = .024), and there was no difference between qSOFA and GYM (P = .345). The highest sensitivity scores for 30-day mortality were GYM ≥ 1 point (85.4%) while the qSOFA score ≥2 points showed high specificity. In the case of the NEWS scale, the cut-off point ≥4 showed high sensitivity, while the cut-off point NEWS ≥ 8 showed high specificity. CONCLUSION: NEWS score showed the highest predictive capacity for 30-day mortality. GYM score ≥1 showed a great sensitivity, while qSOFA ≥2 scores provide the highest specificity but lower sensitivity.

Predictors of noninvasive mechanical ventilation weaning failure in the emergency department. / Factores predictivos de fracaso en el destete de la ventilación mecánica no invasiva en urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze factors related to the failure of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) weaning in a hospital emergency department (ED). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective, observational cohort study with enrolled a sample of consecutive patients who required NIV during ED care. The dependent variable was NIV weaning failure, defined by the need to restart NIV in the ED after a first attempt to withdraw the respirator. RESULTS: Of a total of 675 candidates, we included 360 patients (53.4%). Exclusions were 100 patients (31.7%) who were on NIV at home; 58 (18.4%) in whom NIV initially failed; and 157 (49.9%) in whom weaning was attempted outside the ED. Seventy-two (17.3%) cases of weaning failure in the ED were observed. Factors independently associated with failure were the bicarbonate (HCO3) concentrations before attempted weaning (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12; P = .014), time on NIV in hours (aOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16; P .001), and a pH less than 7.35 before weaning (aOR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.16-5.31; P = .019). CONCLUSION: Weaning failure occurs in 17% of ED patients on NIV. Time on NIV, HCO3 concentration, and a pH less than 7.35 before weaning are independently associated with failure to wean from the respirator.

OBJETIVO: Analizar los factores predictivos del fracaso del destete en los pacientes sometidos a ventilación mecánica no invasiva (VMNI) en un servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH). METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo con muestreo consecutivo de los pacientes que precisaron VMNI durante la atención en el SUH. Se estableció como variable dependiente el fracaso del destete de la VMNI, definido como la necesidad de reiniciar o instaurar la VMNI durante el mismo ingreso hospitalario tras el primer intento de destete. RESULTADOS: Del total de 675 pacientes elegibles, se incluyeron 360 pacientes (53,4%). Se excluyeron 100 (31,7%), 58 (18,4%) y 157 (49,9%) por VMNI domiciliaria, fracaso previo al intento de destete y por realización del intento de destete fuera del SUH, respectivamente. Sesenta y dos casos (17,3%) presentaron con fracaso del destete de la VMNI. Los factores independientes asociados al fracaso del destete fueron la concentración de bicarbonato antes del destete (ORa: 1,06; IC 95%: 1,01-1,12; p = 0,014), la duración VMNI en horas (ORa: 1,10; IC 95%: 1,04-1,16; p 0,001) y un pH 7,35 antes del destete (ORa: 2,48; IC: 1,16-5,31; p = 0,019). CONCLUSIONES: El fracaso del destete de la VMNI en el SUH ocurrió en un 17% de los casos. La duración de la técnica, el valor del HCO3 ­ y el pH 7,35 antes del destete fueron factores independientes asociados al fracaso.

Impact of geriatric assessment variables on 30-day mortality among older patients with acute heart failure. / Impacto de las variables geriátricas en la mortalidad a 30 días de los ancianos atendidos por insuficiencia cardiaca aguda?

OBJETIVE: To study the impact of geriatric assessment variables on 30-day mortality among older patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS: Retrospective analysis of cases in the OAK Registry (Older Acute Heart Failure Key Data), a prospectively compiled database of consecutive patients aged 65 years or older treated for AHF in 3 Spanish emergency departments over a 4-month period (November-December 2011 and January-February 2014). The patients underwent a geriatric assessment adapted for emergency department use on weekdays between 8 AM and 10 PM. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and geriatric assessment variables were recorded. The geriatric variables were concurrent diseases; polypharmacy; frailty; functional, social, and cognitive status at baseline; results of screening for confusional state, cognitive impairment, and depression; and nutritional status. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days. RESULTS: We included 565 patients with a mean (SD) age of 83 (7.1) years; 346 (61.6%) were women. Sixty-five (11.5%) died within 30 days. Independent factors associated with 30-day mortality were acute confusional state (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.0­4.8; P=.04), acute illness (aOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.9­3.4; P=.05), loss of appetite in the past 3 months (aOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0­3.4; P=.04), frailty (aOR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.0­4.1; P=.05), and severe disability (aOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.9­11.4; P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: Certain geriatric variables should be considered when assessing short-term risk in older patients with AHF.

OBJETIVOS: Estudiar el impacto de las variables geriátricas en la mortalidad a 30 días entre los ancianos con insuficiencia cardiaca aguda (ICA). MÉTODO: Análisis retrospectivo del registro Older Acute heart failure Key data (OAK) que incluye prospectivamente a pacientes consecutivos 65 años con ICA en 3 servicios de urgencias españoles durante 4 meses (noviembre-diciembre 2011 y enero-febrero 2014). Se realizó una valoración geriátrica adaptada a urgencias durante los días laborales de 8 am a 10 pm. Se recogieron variables demográficas, clínicas, analíticas y geriátricas (comorbilidad, polifarmacia, fragilidad, situación basal funcional, cognitiva y social, despistaje de síndrome confusional, deterioro cognitivo y depresión, y situación nutricional). La variable de resultado fue la mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 565 pacientes con edad media 83 años (DE 7,1), 346 mujeres (61,6%). Sesenta y cinco sujetos (11,5%) fallecieron a los 30 días. La presencia de síndrome confusional agudo (OR ajustada = 2,2; IC95% 1,0-4,8; p = 0,04), de enfermedad aguda (OR ajustada = 1,8; IC95% 0,9-3,4; p = 0,05) o pérdida de apetito (OR ajustada = 1,8; IC95% 1-3,4; p = 0,04) en los últimos 3 meses, y de fragilidad (OR ajustada = 2,0; IC95% 1,0-4,1; p = 0,05) o dependencia funcional grave (OR ajustada = 4,4; IC95% 1,9-11,4; p = 0,01) fueron factores independientes asociados con mortalidad a los 30 días. CONCLUSIONES: Existen ciertas variables geriátricas que debieran contemplarse en la estratificación de riesgo a corto plazo de los pacientes ancianos con ICA.

Impact of Frailty and Disability on 30-Day Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

The objectives were to determine the impact of frailty and disability on 30-day mortality and whether the addition of these variables to HFRSS EFFECT risk score (FBI-EFFECT model) improves the short-term mortality predictive capacity of both HFRSS EFFECT and BI-EFFECT models in older patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) atended in the emergency department. We performed a retrospective analysis of OAK Registry including all consecutive patients ≥65 years old with ADHF attended in 3 Spanish emergency departments over 4 months. FBI-EFFECT model was developed by adjusting probabilities of HFRSS EFFECT risk categories according to the 6 groups (G1: non frail, no or mildly dependent; G2: frail, no or mildly dependent; G3: non frail, moderately dependent; G4: frail, moderately dependent; G5: severely dependent; G6: very severely dependent).We included 596 patients (mean age: 83 [SD7]; 61.2% females). The 30-day mortality was 11.6% with statistically significant differences in the 6 groups (p < 0.001). After adjusting for HFRSS EFFECT risk categories, we observed a progressive increase in hazard ratios from groups G2 to G6 compared with G1 (reference). FBI-EFFECT had a better prognostic accuracy than did HFRSS EFFECT (log-rank p < 0.001; Net Reclassification Improvement [NRI] = 0.355; p < 0.001; Integrated Discrimination Improvement [IDI] = 0.052; p ;< 0.001) and BI-EFFECT (log-rank p = 0.067; NRI = 0.210; p = 0.033; IDI = 0.017; p = 0.026). In conclusion, severe disability and frailty in patients with moderate disability are associated with 30-day mortality in ADHF, providing additional value to HFRSS EFFECT model in predicting short-term prognosis and establishing a care plan.