Cancer incidence after an open cut coal mine fire.

Using population-level cancer diagnosis data, we compared cancer incidence in locations affected by smoke from a six week-long open cut coal mine fire in regional Victoria, Australia, up to seven years following the event. There was no detectable effect on cancer incidence overall. While several subgroups exhibited changes, these were more likely due to statistical chance rather than real effects. These findings may be limited by low statistical power and short duration of follow up. To confirm the influence of open cut coal mine fires on cancer incidence, further research and an extended follow-up duration are necessary.

Long-term effects of a coalmine fire on hospital and ambulance use: An interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the Hazelwood coalmine fire in regional Victoria, Australia shrouded nearby communities in smoke for six weeks. Prior investigations identified substantial adverse effects, including increases in the use of health services. In this study, we examined the effects on hospital and ambulance use in the eight years following the fire. METHODS: Using Victorian hospital (Jan 2009-Jun 2022) and ambulance (Jan 2013-Dec 2021) data, we conducted an interrupted time series of changes to the rate of hospital admissions, emergency presentations, and ambulance attendances. A categorical exposure model compared two locations, most-exposed Morwell and less-exposed Latrobe Valley, to the rest of regional Victoria. A continuous exposure model used spatial estimates of fire-related PM2.5. Analyses were stratified by sex, age group (<65/65+ years), and condition (cardiovascular, respiratory, mental health, injury). RESULTS: There were small but significant increases in overall hospital admissions and emergency presentations across all analyses, but little evidence of change in overall ambulance attendances. Effects varied considerably by condition, with the biggest relative increases observed among hospital admissions for mental health conditions and injuries. While cardiovascular-related hospital admissions and emergency presentations increased post-fire, ambulance attendances decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest the Hazelwood coalmine fire likely increased hospital usage. However, it is unclear whether this was due to the direct effects of smoke exposure on health, or the disruptive socioeconomic and behavioural impacts of an environmental disaster that affected how communities engaged with various health services.

Association between PM2.5 from a coal mine fire and FeNO concentration 7.5 years later.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There are few long-term studies of respiratory health effects of landscape fires, despite increasing frequency and intensity due to climate change. We investigated the association between exposure to coal mine fire PM2.5 and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) concentration 7.5 years later. METHODS: Adult residents of Morwell, who were exposed to the 2014 Hazelwood mine fire over 6 weeks, and unexposed residents of Sale, participated in the Hazelwood Health Study Respiratory Stream in 2021, including measurements of FeNO concentration, a marker of eosinophilic airway inflammation. Individual exposure to coal mine fire PM2.5 was modelled and mapped to time-location diaries. The effect of exposure to PM2.5 on log-transformed FeNO in exhaled breath was investigated using multivariate linear regression models in the entire sample and stratified by potentially vulnerable subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 326 adults (mean age: 57 years) had FeNO measured. The median FeNO level (interquartile range [IQR]) was 17.5 [15.0] ppb, and individual daily exposure to coal mine fire PM2.5 was 7.2 [13.8] µg/m3. We did not identify evidence of association between coal mine fire PM2.5 exposure and FeNO in the general adult sample, nor in various potentially vulnerable subgroups. The point estimates were consistently close to zero in the total sample and subgroups. CONCLUSION: Despite previous short-term impacts on FeNO and respiratory health outcomes in the medium term, we found no evidence that PM2.5 from the Hazelwood coal mine fire was associated with any long-term impact on eosinophilic airway inflammation measured by FeNO levels.

Does diet quality moderate the long-term effects of discrete but extreme PM2.5 exposure on respiratory symptoms? A study of the Hazelwood coalmine fire.

In 2014, a fire at an open cut coalmine in regional Victoria, Australia burned for 6 weeks. Residents of the nearby town of Morwell were exposed to smoke, which included high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We investigated whether the long-term effects of PM2.5 on respiratory health were moderated by diet quality. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data collected 8.5 years after the mine fire from 282 residents of Morwell and 166 residents from the nearby unexposed town of Sale. Primary outcomes were respiratory symptoms. Exposure was coalmine fire-related PM2.5 and diet quality was assessed as Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) derived using the Australian Eating Survey (AES). The moderating effect of diet quality on respiratory outcomes associated with PM2.5 was assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Diet quality was poor in this sample, with 60% in the lowest category of overall diet quality. Overall diet quality and fruit and vegetable quality significantly attenuated the association between PM2.5 and prevalence of chronic cough and phlegm. Sauce/condiment intake was associated with a greater effect of PM2.5 on COPD prevalence. No other moderating effects were significant. The moderating effects of overall diet quality and vegetable and fruit intake aligned with a priori hypotheses, suggesting potential protective benefits. While more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, improving diets, especially fruit and vegetable intake, may provide some protection against the effects of smoke exposure from fire events.

Long-term effects of extreme smoke exposure on COVID-19: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the Hazelwood coalmine fire shrouded the regional Australian town of Morwell in smoke and ash for 6 weeks. One of the fire's by-products, PM2.5 , is associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 and severe disease. However, it is unclear whether the effect persisted for years after exposure. In this study, we surveyed a cohort established prior to the pandemic to determine whether PM2.5 from the coalmine fire increased long-term vulnerability to COVID-19 and severe disease. METHODS: From August to December 2022, 612 members of the Hazelwood Health Study's adult cohort, established in 2016/17, participated in a follow-up survey that included standardized items to capture COVID-19 cases, as well as questions about hospitalization and vaccinations. Associations were evaluated in crude and adjusted logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 268 (44%) participants self-reported or met symptom criteria for having had COVID-19 at least once. All models found a positive association, with odds of COVID-19 increasing by between 4% and 30% for a 10 µg/m3 increase in coalmine fire-related PM2.5 exposure. However, the association was significant in only 2 of the 18 models. There were insufficient hospitalizations to examine severity (n = 7; 1%). CONCLUSION: The findings are inconclusive on the effect of coalmine fire-related PM2.5 exposure on long-term vulnerability to COVID-19. Given the positive association that was robust to modelling variations as well as evidence for a causal mechanism, it would be prudent to treat PM2.5 from fire events as a long-term risk factor until more evidence accumulates.

Exploring Health Literacy and Psychological Resilience as Moderators of Symptoms of Mental Illness Among Australian Men.

Although highly related, mental illness may not fully determine perceived well-being, a distinction captured by dual-continuum models. Separating mental illness and well-being into related but separate constructs prompted investigation into potential buffers to reduce the impact of mental illness on perceived well-being. This study explored two such buffers in health literacy and psychological resilience among Australian men. Using the Ten to Men Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health, this secondary data analysis of n = 8,408 men between 18 and 60 years of age assessed the moderating effect of three components of health literacy (feeling supported by health care providers, ability to find health information, and active engagement with health care providers) and psychological resilience on the relationship between mental illness and well-being. Mental illness symptoms were negatively associated with well-being, whereas psychological resilience, active engagement with health care, and health care provider support (ß res = .65, ß eng = .28, and ß sup = .25) had positive significant relationships with the outcome (all p ≤ .001). Ability to find health information (p = .25) and psychological resilience (p = .43) were not significantly associated with well-being. Of the four interactions tested, health literacy relating to health care worker support was the only significant moderator between mental illness and well-being (ß sup = .03). This study identified that meaningful support and understanding from health care providers for Australian men aged between 18 and 60 years may somewhat ameliorate the impact of mental illness on well-being. Further related investigation may reveal specific interventions that improve perceptions of support among men.

Transition between social protection systems for workers with long term health problems: A controlled retrospective cohort study.

Many nations have established workers' compensation systems as a feature of their social protection system. These systems typically provide time-limited entitlements such as wage replacement benefits and funding for medical treatment. Entitlements may end for workers with long-term health conditions before they have returned to employment. We sought to determine the prevalence of transitions to alternative forms of social protection, specifically social security benefits, among injured workers with long-term disability, when workers' compensation benefits end. We linked Australian workers' compensation and social security data to examine receipt of social security payments one year before and after workers' compensation benefit cessation. Study groups included (1) injured workers whose workers' compensation benefits ceased due to reaching a 260-week limit introduced by legislative reform (N = 2761), (2) a control group of injured workers with at least 104 weeks workers compensation income support (N = 3890), and (3) a matched community control group (N = 10,114). Adjusted binary logistic regression examined the odds of transitions to social security in the injured worker groups relative to the community control group. Within 12 months of workers' compensation benefit cessation, 60% (N = 1669) of the exposed group received social security payments, of which 41% (N = 1120) received the unemployment allowance and 19% (N = 516) the disability pension. Among the work injured control group, 42% (N = 1676) received social security payments after workers compensation benefits ceased. Transitions to social security payments were significantly more common than community levels for both exposed (OR 25.0, 95%CI = 20.7, 30.1) and work injured control groups (OR 4.7, 95%CI = 4.2, 5.3). Many injured workers with long-term health problems transition to social security when their workers' compensation benefits cease. Transitions were more common among workers whose claims ended due to legislative reform which time-limited benefits. Design and implementation of system level policy reform should consider the social and economic impacts of transitions between separate social protection systems.

Injured worker outcomes after compensation system overhaul: an interrupted time series study.

OBJECTIVE: In 2015, South Australia replaced its workers' compensation system with the aim of improving return to work rates. We examined whether this was achieved by focusing on the duration of time off work, as well as claim processing times and claim volumes to understand how this may have been achieved. METHODS: The primary outcome was mean weeks of compensated disability duration. Secondary outcomes tested alternative mechanisms of a change in disability duration: (1) mean employer report and insurer decision times to evaluate whether there had been changes in claim processing and (2) claim volumes to determine whether the new system altered the cohort under investigation. Outcomes were aggregated into monthly units and analysed with an interrupted time series design. Three condition subgroups-injury, disease and mental health-were compared in separate analyses. RESULTS: While disability duration steadily declined before the RTW Act came into effect, afterwards it flatlined. A similar effect was observed in insurer decision time. Claim volumes gradually increased. Employer report time gradually decreased. Condition subgroups mostly followed a similar pattern to overall claims, though the increase in insurer decision time appears largely driven by changes in injury claims. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in disability duration after the RTW Act took effect may be attributable to an increase in insurer decision time, which itself could be due to the disruption of overhauling a compensation system or the elimination of provisional liability entitlements that incentivised early decision making and provided early intervention.

Sociodemographic circumstances, health, and life experience shape posttraumatic distress trajectories among individuals exposed to smoke during a large-scale coal mine fire.

The 2014 Hazelwood coal mine fire in the Latrobe Valley, Australia, distributed toxic smoke into surrounding communities over 45 days. This study investigated risk and protective factors associated with four trajectories of posttraumatic distress (resilient, recovery, delayed-onset, chronic) among exposed adults. Participants (N = 709) completed surveys in 2016-2017 and 2019-2020 assessing mine fire-related particulate matter (PM2.5 ) exposure; sociodemographic, physical, and mental health variables; and exposure to other traumatic and recent stressful events. Mine fire-related posttraumatic distress was measured using the IES-R; trajectories were determined according to established clinical significance thresholds. Relative risk ratios (RRRs) were generated from multivariate multinomial regressions. The resilient trajectory was most common (77.0%). The chronic trajectory (8.5%) was associated with loneliness, RRR = 2.59, 95% CI [1.30, 5.16], and physical health diagnoses, RRR = 2.31, 95% CI [1.32, 4.02]. The delayed-onset trajectory (9.1%) was associated with multiple recent stressful events, RRR = 2.51, 95% CI [1.37, 4.59]; mental health diagnoses, RRR = 2.30, 95% CI [1.25, 4.24]; loneliness, RRR = 2.05, 95% CI [1.09, 3.88]; and male gender, RRR = 2.01, 95% CI [1.18, 3.44]. Socioeconomic advantage protected against chronic, RRR = 0.68, 95% CI [0.53, 0.86], and delayed-onset trajectory membership, RRR = 0.68, 95% CI [0.50, 0.94]; social support protected against chronic trajectory membership, RRR = 0.67, 95% CI [0.49, 0.92]. PM2.5 exposure did not determine trajectory. These findings enhance understanding of longer-term posttraumatic responses to large-scale smoke events and can inform mental health initiatives within at-risk communities.

Long-term impact of the 2014 Hazelwood coal mine fire on emergency department presentations in Australia.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, wildfires ignited a coal mine in Australia, burning for 6 weeks, releasing large amounts of fine particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). We investigated the association between individual PM2.5 exposure and emergency department presentations (EDPs) within 5 years post-fire. METHODS: Survey and exposure data for 2725 residents from an exposed and unexposed town were linked with ED administrative data from 2009 to 2019. The association between individual PM2.5 and EDPs was assessed using recurrent survival analysis. RESULTS: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 10% increase in respiratory EDPs (HR = 1.10; 95%CI:1.00-1.22) over 5 years post-fire. Increased risks of EDPs for ischaemic heart disease (HR = 1.39; 95%CI:1.12-1.73), atherothrombotic disease (HR = 1.27; 95%CI:1.08-1.50), and cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.10, 95%CI:0.99-1.22) were evident within 2.5 years. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 exposure from a 6-week mine fire increased the 5-year risk of respiratory conditions. An increased risk of CVD within 2.5 years post-fire subsided after this time.

Associations Between Firearm and Suicide Rates: A Replication of Kleck (2021).

OBJECTIVE: Using data from n = 194 nation-states, Kleck found that firearm availability was only associated with firearm suicide rates, but not total or non-firearm suicides. He thus concluded that while firearm availability influences how people commit suicide, it does not affect total numbers. However, the study contains numerous logical and methodological issues and is at odds with the evidence base. Therefore, I attempt to reproduce the original results. METHOD: I reproduce the original study's methods: ordinary least squares regression, weighted by the square root of the population, with log-transformed suicide rates and three separate firearm availability measures: global estimates from the Small Arms Survey, proportion of suicides committed with firearms, and a European Union survey of firearm ownership. I also test several methodological variations and include U.S. suicide data. RESULTS: In contrast to Kleck, global analyses with Small Arms Survey data found a significant and positive association between firearm availability and total suicides, as did U.S. analyses. Analyses with other firearm availability measures comported with the original study, finding no association. CONCLUSION: The main result in Kleck failed to reproduce, finding instead a significant association between firearm availability and suicide rates, as did U.S. analyses. While reproductions of Kleck's other analyses continued to show no association, they were based on unreliable methods. I therefore reject Kleck's conclusion that that firearm availability does not influence suicide rates. HighlightsUsing data global data, I find firearm availability is positively associated with suicide rates.I identify serious flaws in the logic and methods of Kleck and an earlier review.For transparency, data and code have been archived on a public repository.

Work-related injuries in the Australian education sector: A retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Educators are exposed to several work-related hazards. Evidence suggests musculoskeletal pain, psychological distress, and student-inflicted violence-related injuries are common. However, there is little evidence on the burden of workplace injury among Australian educators. AIM: To compare incidence of injury claims and duration of compensated time off work between educators and non-educators, and associated factors. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 1,559,676 Australian workers' compensation claims, including 84,915 educator claims, lodged between July 2009 to June 2015, from the National Dataset for Compensation-based Statistics. Cases were included if aged 18+ years and working in the education sector less than 100 h per week. Negative binomial regression models estimated the relative risk of making a compensation claim and survival analyses calculated disability duration within educators by sex, age, injury type and mechanism, socioeconomic area, remoteness, and jurisdiction. RESULTS: Compared to non-educators, educators had lower rates of injury claims and shorter disability durations. However, educators had a higher rate of claims for mental health conditions and assault, with the highest risk being among those in special education and education aides. Among educators, injury claim rates were highest among special educators, education aides, and secondary educators. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Though surveys indicate Australians in the education sector have higher incidences of work-related injuries, this study found lower incidence of injury claims and shorter disability durations than others. Educators' injury-reporting and absenteeism behaviors may be constrained by ethical, social, and administrative attitudes. Educators had higher rates of claims for mental health and assault-related injury, particularly special educators, and education aides, which suggests a need for targeted prevention efforts.

The Association Between Continuity of Care With a Primary Care Physician and Duration of Work Disability for Low Back Pain: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study are to determine the continuity of care (CoC) provided by primary care physicians among workers with low back pain, to identify factors associated with CoC, and to investigate whether CoC is associated with working time loss. METHODS: Continuity of care was measured with the usual provider continuity metric. Ordinal logistic regression models examined factors associated with CoC. Quantile regression models examined the association between working time loss and CoC. RESULTS: Complete CoC was observed in 33.8% of workers, high CoC among 37.7%, moderate CoC in 22.1%, and low CoC in 6.4%. In workers with more than 2-months time loss, those with complete CoC had less time off work. CONCLUSIONS: Higher CoC with a primary care physician is associated with less working time loss and this relationship is strongest in the subacute phase of low back pain.

Exploring Differences in Work Disability Duration by Size of Firm in Canada and Australia.

Purpose To identify whether there were differences in work disability duration between injured workers employed by small, medium, large, and self-insured firms and whether these differences varied between workers' compensation jurisdictions in Canada and Australia. Methods Workers' compensation data were used to identify comparable lost-time, work-related injury and musculoskeletal disorder claims in five Canadian and five Australian jurisdictions between 2011 and 2015. Work disability duration was measured using cumulative disability days paid up to one-year post-injury. Jurisdiction-specific quantile regression models were used to estimate differences in cumulative disability days paid to claims from small (< 20 full-time equivalents (FTEs)) medium (20-199 FTEs), large (200 + FTEs) and self-insured firms at the 25th, 50th, and 70th percentiles in the disability distribution, adjusting for confounders. Results Compared to large firms, workers in small firms generally had longer work disability duration at each percentile, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta (Canada), Victoria and Australian Capital Territory (Australia), where an additional 31.1, 18.4, 58.5 and 37.0 days were paid at the 75th percentiles, respectively. The disability duration of workers from self-insured firms was longer than large firms in all Canadian jurisdictions but was shorter or no different in Australian jurisdictions. Smaller differences were observed between claims from large and medium-sized firms. Conclusions Workers in small firms had longer work disability duration than those in large firms in all but one of the study jurisdictions. Claims management processes need to be sensitive to the challenges that small firms face in accommodating and returning injured workers back to work.

Regional Differences in Time Off Work After Injury: A Comparison of Australian States and Territories Within A Single Workers' Compensation System.

Purpose Time off work after workplace injury varies by compensation system. While often attributed to features of the compensation system, unaccounted regional factors may drive much of the effect. In this study, we compare disability durations by state and territory of residence within a single national workers' compensation system. Large differences would indicate that factors other than compensation system settings are responsible for system effects observed in previous studies. Methods We applied crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to compare disability durations by state and territory of residence. Confounders included factors known to influence disability duration. Durations were left-censored at two weeks and right-censored at 104 weeks. Results We analysed N = 31,641 claims. In both crude and adjusted models, three of the seven states and territories significantly differed from the reference group, New South Wales. However, two of the three were different between crude and adjusted models. Regional effects were relatively small compared to other factors including insurer type, age, and type of injury. Conclusions Regional factors influence disability duration, which persist with adjustment for demographic, work, insurer type, and injury confounders. However, the effects are inconsistently significant and fairly small, especially when compared to the effect of confounders and system effects found in previous studies. Regional factors likely only account for a small share of the difference in disability duration between compensation systems.

Collider Bias in Administrative Workers' Compensation Claims Data: A Challenge for Cross-Jurisdictional Research.

PURPOSE: Workers' compensation claims consist of occupational injuries severe enough to meet a compensability threshold. Theoretically, systems with higher thresholds should have fewer claims but greater average severity. For research that relies on claims data, particularly cross-jurisdictional comparisons of compensation systems, this results in collider bias that can lead to spurious associations confounding analyses. In this study, I use real and simulated claims data to demonstrate collider bias and problems with methods used to account for it. METHODS: Using Australian claims data, I used a linear regression to test the association between claim rate and mean disability durations across Statistical Areas. Analyses were repeated with nesting by state/territory to account for variations in compensability thresholds across compensation systems. Both analyses are repeated on left-censored data. Simulated claims data are analysed with Cox survival analyses to illustrate how left-censoring can reverse effects. RESULTS: The claim rate within a Statistical Area was inversely associated with disability duration. However, this reversed when Statistical Areas were nested by state/territory. Left-censoring resulted in an attenuation of the unnested association to non-significance, while the nested association remained significantly positive. Cox regressions with simulated claims data demonstrated how left-censoring can reverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: Collider bias can seriously confound work disability research, particularly cross-jurisdictional comparisons. Work disability researchers must grapple with this challenge by using appropriate study designs and analytical approaches, and considering how it affects the interpretation of results.

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities.

This study investigated whether homicides increased after protested police-involved deaths, focusing on the period after Michael Brown's death in Ferguson in August 2014. It also tests for effects of legal cynicism by comparing effects in homicide and aggravated assault on the assumption that reporting of the latter is discretionary and police abuses may make communities reluctant to notify police. Using FBI data from 44 U.S. cities, homicide and assault rates from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and combined in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled effects. A meta-regression tested effect moderators including external investigations and city/county sociodemographic characteristics. With a conservative threshold of p ≤ .01, 21 of the 44 cities experienced a significant increase and one had a significant decrease. The pooled effect was a 26.1% increase in the homicide (99% CI: 15.3% to 36.8%). Aggravated assaults increased above baseline, though the effect was 15.2 percentage points smaller (99% CI: -26.7 to -3.6) than the effect in homicides. When outcomes were measured as percent change, there were no significant effect moderators, but when measured as absolute change, homicides increased to a greater extent when the death was subject to external investigation and in cities with higher Black populations, poverty rates, and baseline homicide rates. The findings suggest that protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities whom police are meant to protect.

The impact of long-term workers' compensation benefit cessation on welfare and health service use: protocol for a longitudinal controlled data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, the Australian state of New South Wales passed legislation that reformed its workers' compensation system. Section 39 introduced a five-year limit on income replacement, with the first affected group having their benefits cease in December 2017. There is limited evidence on how this will affect their healthcare service use and where they will go for financial support. METHODS: Multiple data sources will be linked: administrate workers' compensation claims data from the State Insurance Regulatory Authority (SIRA), universal health insurance data from the Medical Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), state hospital and emergency department data, and social welfare data from the Department of Social Services' Data Over Multiple Individual Occurrences (DOMINO). An estimated 4,125 injured workers had their benefits cease due to Section 39. These will form the exposure group who will be compared to 1) a similar group of workers' compensation claimants who have had at least two years of compensated time off work but whose benefits did not cease due to Section 39; and 2) a community comparison group drawn from state hospital and emergency department records.An accredited third party will link the data, which will be accessible only via secure virtual machine. Initial analyses will compare the prevalence and incidence of service use across groups in both the year before and year after benefit cessation; the community control will be assigned the median benefit cessation date in lieu of an actual date. To estimate the impact of benefit cessation due to Section 39, we will conduct time series analysis of the prevalence and incidence of service use. DISCUSSION: This study will provide much-needed evidence on the consequences of long-term benefit cessation, particularly on subsequent healthcare and welfare service use.

Geographic variation in work disability burden: Identifying hotspots, coldspots, and associated sociodemographic factors.

OBJECTIVES: To identify geographic hotspots and coldspots of work disability burden and their associated sociodemographic factors in Australia. METHODS: Using Australian workers' compensation and census data, we calculated weeks of compensated time off work per 1000 labor force, an indicator of work disability burden, at Statistical Area Level 4, the smallest level of labor force data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Records included all claims with at least 1 day of compensated time off work lodged between 2010 and 2015. Work disability burden was z-transformed by state and territory and mapped across Australia. Statistical Areas that were more than 1 standard deviation from the state or territory mean were considered hotspots and coldspots. We tested several sociodemographic factors as predictors of work disability burden. RESULTS: Work disability burden hotspots were concentrated in lower socioeconomic suburbs and exurbs of state capitals, in addition to several regional areas. Coldspots were primarily in wealthy central urban and suburban areas. Factors associated with greater work disability burden include higher area socioeconomic disadvantage, rurality, lower labor force participation, higher unemployment, higher proportion of work in production industries and in blue-collar occupations, and higher numbers of those with core activity limitations, those aged 65+ years, and foreign-born residents. CONCLUSIONS: Work disability burden is unequally distributed across Australia and strongly influenced by sociodemographic and occupational factors. The findings can guide more efficient allocation of resources for work disability prevention and rehabilitation.

Step-downs reduce workers' compensation payments to encourage return to work: are they effective?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether step-downs, which cut the rate of compensation paid to injured workers after they have been on benefits for several months, are effective as a return to work incentive. METHODS: We aggregated administrative claims data from seven Australian workers' compensation systems to calculate weekly scheme exit rates, a proxy for return to work. Jurisdictions were further subdivided into four injury subgroups: fractures, musculoskeletal, mental health and other trauma. The effect of step-downs on scheme exit was tested using a regression discontinuity design. Results were pooled into meta-analyses to calculate combined effects and the proportion of variance attributable to heterogeneity. RESULTS: The combined effect of step-downs was a 0.86 percentage point (95% CI -1.45 to -0.27) reduction in the exit rate, with significant heterogeneity between jurisdictions (I2=68%, p=0.003). Neither timing nor magnitude of step-downs was a significant moderator of effects. Within injury subgroups, only fractures had a significant combined effect (-0.84, 95% CI -1.61 to -0.07). Sensitivity analysis indicated potential effects within mental health and musculoskeletal conditions as well. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest some workers' compensation recipients anticipate step-downs and exit the system early to avoid the reduction in income. However, the effects were small and suggest step-downs have marginal practical significance. We conclude that step-downs are generally ineffective as a return to work policy initiative.Postprint link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/19012286.