Human and natural controls of the variation in aboveground tree biomass in African dry tropical forests.

Understanding the anthropogenic and natural controls that affect the patterns, distribution, and dynamics of terrestrial carbon is crucial to meeting climate change mitigation objectives. We assessed the human and natural controls over aboveground tree biomass density in African dry tropical forests, using Zambia's first nationwide forest inventory. We identified predictors that best explain the variation in biomass density, contrasted anthropogenic and natural sites at different spatial scales, and compared sites with different stand structure characteristics and species composition. In addition, we evaluated the effects of different management and conservation practices on biomass density. Variation in biomass density was mostly determined by biotic processes, linked with both species richness and dominance (evenness), and to a lesser extent, by land use, environmental controls, and spatial structure. Biomass density was negatively associated with tree species evenness and positively associated with species richness for both natural and human-modified sites. Human influence variables (including distance to roads, distance to town, fire occurrence, and the population on site) did not explain substantial variation in biomass density in comparison to biodiversity variables. The relationship of human activities to biomass density in managed sites appears to be mediated by effects on species diversity and stand structure characteristics, with lower values in human-modified sites for all metrics tested. Small contrasts in carbon density between human-modified and natural forest sites signal the potential to maintain carbon in the landscape inside but also outside forestlands in this region. Biodiversity is positively related to biomass density in both human and natural sites, demonstrating potential synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. This is the first evidence of positive outcomes of protected areas and participatory forest management on carbon storage at national scale in Zambia. This research shows that understanding controls over biomass density can provide policy relevant inputs for carbon management and on ecological processes affecting carbon storage.

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

Central Africa's tropical forests are among the world's largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection - forest management that is low or nonexistent - ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy's influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC's forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle.

Ten ways remote sensing can contribute to conservation.

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners' use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain-referral survey. We then used a workshop-based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real-time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing-derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?

Mapping and monitoring carbon stocks with satellite observations: a comparison of methods.

Mapping and monitoring carbon stocks in forested regions of the world, particularly the tropics, has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years as deforestation and forest degradation account for up to 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, and are now included in climate change negotiations. We review the potential for satellites to measure carbon stocks, specifically aboveground biomass (AGB), and provide an overview of a range of approaches that have been developed and used to map AGB across a diverse set of conditions and geographic areas. We provide a summary of types of remote sensing measurements relevant to mapping AGB, and assess the relative merits and limitations of each. We then provide an overview of traditional techniques of mapping AGB based on ascribing field measurements to vegetation or land cover type classes, and describe the merits and limitations of those relative to recent data mining algorithms used in the context of an approach based on direct utilization of remote sensing measurements, whether optical or lidar reflectance, or radar backscatter. We conclude that while satellite remote sensing has often been discounted as inadequate for the task, attempts to map AGB without satellite imagery are insufficient. Moreover, the direct remote sensing approach provided more coherent maps of AGB relative to traditional approaches. We demonstrate this with a case study focused on continental Africa and discuss the work in the context of reducing uncertainty for carbon monitoring and markets.

Comparing ape densities and habitats in northern Congo: surveys of sympatric gorillas and chimpanzees in the Odzala and Ndoki regions.

The conservation status of western lowland gorillas and central chimpanzees in western equatorial Africa remains largely speculative because many remote areas have never been surveyed and the impact of emergent diseases in the region has not been well documented. In this study, we compared ape densities and habitats in the Lokoué study area in Odzala National Park and the Goualougo Triangle in Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park in northern Republic of Congo. Both of these sites have long been considered strongholds for the conservation of chimpanzees and gorillas, but supposedly differ in vegetative composition and relative ape abundance. We compared habitats between these sites using conventional ground surveys and classified Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite images. We present density estimates via both standing-crop and marked-nest methods for the first time for sympatric apes of the Congo Basin. The marked-nest method was effective in depicting chimpanzee densities, but underestimated gorilla densities at both sites. Marked-nest surveys also revealed a dramatic decline in the ape population of Lokoué which coincided with a local Ebola epidemic. Normal baseline fluctuations in ape nest encounter rates during the repeated passages of marked-nest surveys were clearly distinguishable from a 80% decline in ape nest encounter rates at Lokoué. Our results showed that ape densities, habitat composition, and population dynamics differed between these populations in northern Congo. We emphasize the importance of intensifying monitoring efforts and further refinement of ape survey methods, as our results indicated that even the largest remaining ape populations in intact and protected forests are susceptible to sudden and dramatic declines.

Expansion of industrial logging in Central Africa.

Industrial logging has become the most extensive land use in Central Africa, with more than 600,000 square kilometers (30%) of forest currently under concession. With use of a time series of satellite imagery for the period from 1976 to 2003, we measured 51,916 kilometers of new logging roads. The density of roads across the forested region was 0.03 kilometer per square kilometer, but areas of Gabon and Equatorial Guinea had values over 0.09 kilometer per square kilometer. A new frontier of logging expansion was identified within the Democratic Republic of Congo, which contains 63% of the remaining forest of the region. Tree felling and skid trails increased disturbance in selectively logged areas.