Quantitative Computed Tomography Image Analysis to Predict Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumor Grade.

PURPOSE: The therapeutic management of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) is based on pathological tumor grade assessment. A noninvasive imaging method to grade tumors would facilitate treatment selection. This study evaluated the ability of quantitative image analysis derived from computed tomography (CT) images to predict PanNET grade. METHODS: Institutional database was queried for resected PanNET (2000-2017) with a preoperative arterial phase CT scan. Radiomic features were extracted from the primary tumor on the CT scan using quantitative image analysis, and qualitative radiographic descriptors were assessed by two radiologists. Significant features were identified by univariable analysis and used to build multivariable models to predict PanNET grade. RESULTS: Overall, 150 patients were included. The performance of models based on qualitative radiographic descriptors varied between the two radiologists (reader 1: sensitivity, 33%; specificity, 66%; negative predictive value [NPV], 63%; and positive predictive value [PPV], 37%; reader 2: sensitivity, 45%; specificity, 70%; NPV, 72%; and PPV, 47%). The model based on radiomics had a better performance predicting the tumor grade with a sensitivity of 54%, a specificity of 80%, an NPV of 81%, and a PPV of 54%. The inclusion of radiomics in the radiographic descriptor models improved both the radiologists' performance. CONCLUSION: CT quantitative image analysis of PanNETs helps predict tumor grade from routinely acquired scans and should be investigated in future prospective studies.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: Have IAP Consensus Guidelines Changed our Approach?: Results from a Multi-institutional Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of consensus guidelines on the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) and the subsequent changes in pathologic outcomes. BACKGROUND: Over time, multiple guidelines have been developed to identify high-risk IPMN. We hypothesized that the development and implementation of guidelines should have increased the percentage of resected IPMN with high-risk disease. METHODS: Memorial Sloan-Kettering (MSK), Johns Hopkins (JH), and Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) databases were queried for resected IPMN (2000-2015). Patients were categorized into main-duct (MD-IPMN) versus branch-duct (BD-IPMN). Guideline-specific radiographic/endoscopic features were recorded. High-risk disease was defined as high-grade dysplasia/carcinoma. Fisher's exact test was used to detect differences between institutions. Logistic regression evaluated differences between time-points [preguidelines (pre-GL, before 2006), Sendai (SCG, 2006-2012), Fukuoka (FCG, after 2012)]. RESULTS: The study included 1210 patients. The percentage of BD-IPMN with ≥1 high-risk radiographic feature differed between centers (MSK 69%, JH 60%, MGH 45%; P < 0.001). In MD-IPMN cohort, the presence of radiographic features such as solid component and main pancreatic duct diameter ≥10 mm also differed (solid component: MSK 38%, JH 30%, MGH 18%; P < 0.001; duct ≥10 mm: MSK 49%, JH 32%, MGH 44%; P < 0.001). The percentage of high-risk disease on pathology, however, was similar between institutions (BD-IPMN: P = 0.36, MD-IPMN: P = 0.48). During the study period, the percentage of BD-IPMN resected with ≥1 high-risk feature increased (52% pre-GL vs 67% FCG; P = 0.005), whereas the percentage of high-risk disease decreased (pre-GL vs FCG: 30% vs 20%). For MD-IPMN, there was not a clear trend towards guideline adherence, and the rate of high-risk disease was similar over the time (pre-GL vs FCG: 69% vs 67%; P = 0.63). CONCLUSION: Surgical management of IPMN based on radiographic criteria is variable between institutions, with similar percentages of high-risk disease. Over the 15-year study period, the rate of BD-IPMN resected with high-risk radiographic features increased; however, the rate of high-risk disease decreased. Better predictors are needed.

Multimodal radiomics and cyst fluid inflammatory markers model to predict preoperative risk in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms.

Purpose: Our paper contributes to the burgeoning field of surgical data science. Specifically, multimodal integration of relevant patient data is used to determine who should undergo a complex pancreatic resection. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) represent cystic precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer with varying risk for malignancy. We combine previously defined individual models of radiomic analysis of diagnostic computed tomography (CT) with protein markers extracted from the cyst fluid to create a unified prediction model to identify high-risk IPMNs. Patients with high-risk IPMN would be sent for resection, whereas patients with low-risk cystic lesions would be spared an invasive procedure. Approach: Retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired cyst fluid and CT scans was undertaken for this study. A predictive model combining clinical features with a cyst fluid inflammatory marker (CFIM) was applied to patient data. Quantitative imaging (QI) features describing radiomic patterns predictive of risk were extracted from scans. The CFIM model and QI model were combined into a single predictive model. An additional model was created with tumor-associated neutrophils (TANs) assessed by a pathologist at the time of resection. Results: Thirty-three patients were analyzed (7 high risk and 26 low risk). The CFIM model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74. Adding the QI model improved performance with an AUC of 0.88. Combining the CFIM, QI, and TAN models further increased performance to an AUC of 0.98. Conclusions: Quantitative analysis of routinely acquired CT scans combined with CFIMs provides accurate prediction of risk of pancreatic cancer progression. Although a larger cohort is needed for validation, this model represents a promising tool for preoperative assessment of IPMN.

Alterations in driver genes are predictive of survival in patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A, and SMAD4 are established driver genes in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study was aimed at determining whether the mutational status of driver genes and those involved in DNA repair pathways are associated with clinical outcomes for individuals who undergo resection. METHODS: Eligible individuals were those who underwent resection of PDAC and consented to targeted sequencing of their primary tumor via Memorial Sloan Kettering-Integrated Mutation Profiling of Actionable Cancer Targets (MSK-IMPACT). Genomic alterations were determined on the basis of MSK-IMPACT results from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples. Associations between genomic alterations and clinical outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: Targeted sequencing was performed on 283 primary tumors resected between 2004 and 2017. The median follow-up was 23 months among survivors. Alterations in KRAS and TP53 were associated with worse overall survival (OS) in comparison to wild type (median for KRAS, 38.8 months [95% CI, 33.0-45.5 months] vs 91.0 months [95% CI, 34.8 months to not available (NA)]; P = .043; median for TP53, 37.4 months [95% CI, 32.1-42.8 months] vs 65.0 months [95% CI, 33.0 months to NA]; P = .035). KRAS G12D mutations were associated with worse OS (median, 31.6 months [95% CI, 25.3-45.5 months] vs 39.2 months [95% CI, 37.4-75.2 months]; P = .012). TP53 truncating mutations (median, 39.6 months [95% CI, 32.4-75.2 months] vs 33.9 months [95% CI, 24.0-39.0 months]; P = .020) and those associated with loss of heterozygosity (median, 26.6 months [95% CI, 21.6-44.2 months] vs 39.2 months [95% CI, 34.5-49.1 months]; P = .048) had decreased OS. TP53 alterations were independently associated with OS in a multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.01-2.33; P = .042). Individuals with germline alterations in homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) genes had improved OS in comparison with those without them (median, not reached vs 37.0 months; 95% CI, 33.0-49.8 months; P = .035). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with resected PDAC, genomic alterations in KRAS and TP53 are associated with worse outcomes, whereas alterations in HRD genes are associated with a favorable prognosis. Further studies are needed to better define these alterations as biomarkers in resected PDAC.

Altered RNA Splicing by Mutant p53 Activates Oncogenic RAS Signaling in Pancreatic Cancer.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is driven by co-existing mutations in KRAS and TP53. However, how these mutations collaborate to promote this cancer is unknown. Here, we uncover sequence-specific changes in RNA splicing enforced by mutant p53 which enhance KRAS activity. Mutant p53 increases expression of splicing regulator hnRNPK to promote inclusion of cytosine-rich exons within GTPase-activating proteins (GAPs), negative regulators of RAS family members. Mutant p53-enforced GAP isoforms lose cell membrane association, leading to heightened KRAS activity. Preventing cytosine-rich exon inclusion in mutant KRAS/p53 PDACs decreases tumor growth. Moreover, mutant p53 PDACs are sensitized to inhibition of splicing via spliceosome inhibitors. These data provide insight into co-enrichment of KRAS and p53 mutations and therapeutics targeting this mechanism in PDAC.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as a Predictor of Invasive Carcinoma in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas.

OBJECTIVES: Preoperative determination of the grade of dysplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) is necessary for optimal management. Previous data have suggested that serum neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) can predict invasive disease in patients with IPMN. METHODS: A prospectively maintained database was queried for consecutive patients who underwent resection of IPMN. Exclusion criteria included recent diagnosis of cancer, immunosuppression, and infection or jaundice within 1 month of operation. A complete blood count with differential within 30 days of operation was used to calculate NLR. RESULTS: Within the study period, 446 patients underwent resection for IPMN, and 348 patients (78%) met the inclusion criteria. Low-grade dysplasia was present in 60 patients (17%), 137 patients (39%) had intermediate-grade dysplasia, 76 (22%) had high-grade dysplasia, and 75 (22%) had invasive carcinoma. A higher NLR was associated with invasive carcinoma as compared with noninvasive disease (3.00 vs 2.68, P = 0.039). There was no difference in NLR between patients with high-risk (invasive and high-grade) and low-risk (low-grade and intermediate-grade) lesions (2.80 vs 2.71, P > 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was significantly higher in patients with IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma as compared with patients with noninvasive disease; however, NLR was not helpful in differentiating between high- and low-grade lesions.

Perioperative Bundle to Reduce Surgical Site Infection after Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomy is historically associated with incisional surgical site infection (iSSI) rates between 15% and 20%. Prospective studies have been mixed with respect to the benefit of individual interventions directed at decreasing iSSI. We hypothesized that the application of a perioperative bundle during pancreaticoduodenectomy would decrease the rate of iSSIs significantly. METHODS: An initial cohort of 150 consecutive post-pancreaticoduodenectomy patients were assessed within 2 to 4 weeks of operation to determine baseline iSSI rates. The CDC definition of iSSI was used. A 4-part perioperative bundle was then instituted for the second cohort of 150 patients. This bundle consisted of a double-ring wound protector, gown/glove and drape change before fascial closure, irrigation of the wound with bacitracin solution, and a negative-pressure wound dressing that was left in place until postoperative day 7 or day of discharge. Three-hundred patients provided 80% power to detect a 50% risk reduction in iSSIs. RESULTS: Cohorts 1 and 2 were similar with respect to age (68 vs 69 years; p = 0.918), sex (male, 51% vs 55%; p = 0.644), BMI (26 vs 26 kg/m2; p = 0.928), use of neoadjuvant therapy (21% vs 17%; p = 0.377), median operative time (222 vs 215 minutes; p = 0.366), and presence of a preoperative stent (53% vs 41%; p = 0.064). The iSSI rate was 22.3% in the initial cohort. This rate was higher than both our institutional database (13%) and NSQIP reporting (11%). Within the second cohort, the iSSI rate decreased significantly to 10.7% (n = 16; p = 0.012). All 4 components of the bundle were used in 91% of cohort 2 patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort study of 300 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, the implementation of a 4-part bundle decreased iSSI rate from 22% to 11%.

Should Patients With Cystic Lesions of the Pancreas Undergo Long-term Radiographic Surveillance?: Results of 3024 Patients Evaluated at a Single Institution.

OBJECTIVE: In 2015, the American Gastroenterological Association recommended the discontinuation of radiographic surveillance after 5 years for patients with stable pancreatic cysts. The current study evaluated the yield of continued surveillance of pancreatic cysts up to and after 5 years of follow up. METHODS: A prospectively maintained registry of patients evaluated for pancreatic cysts was queried (1995-2016). Patients who initially underwent radiographic surveillance were divided into those with <5 years and ≥5 years of follow up. Analyses for the presence of cyst growth (>5 mm increase in diameter), cross-over to resection, and development of carcinoma were performed. RESULTS: A total of 3024 patients were identified, with 2472 (82%) undergoing initial surveillance. The ≥5 year group (n = 596) experienced a greater frequency of cyst growth (44% vs. 20%; P < 0.0001), a lower rate of cross-over to resection (8% vs 11%; P = 0.02), and a similar frequency of progression to carcinoma (2% vs 3%; P = 0.07) compared with the <5 year group (n = 1876). Within the ≥5 year group, 412 patients (69%) had demonstrated radiographic stability at the 5-year time point. This subgroup, when compared with the <5 year group, experienced similar rates of cyst growth (19% vs. 20%; P= 0.95) and lower rates of cross-over to resection (5% vs 11%; P< 0.0001) and development of carcinoma (1% vs 3%; P= 0.008). The observed rate of developing cancer in the group that was stable at the 5-year time point was 31.3 per 100,000 per year, whereas the expected national age-adjusted incidence rate for this same group was 7.04 per 100,000 per year. CONCLUSION: Cyst size stability at the 5-year time point did not preclude future growth, cross-over to resection, or carcinoma development. Patients who were stable at 5 years had a nearly 3-fold higher risk of developing cancer compared with the general population and should continue long-term surveillance.