Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, local hospitals need to anticipate a surge in health care needs. We examined the modelled surge because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that was used to inform the early hospital-level response against cases as they transpired. METHODS: To estimate hospital-level surge in March and April 2020, we simulated a range of scenarios of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using the best available data at the time. We applied outputs to hospital-specific data to estimate surge over 6 weeks at 2 hospitals (St. Michael's Hospital and St. Joseph's Health Centre). We examined multiple scenarios, wherein the default (R0 = 2.4) resembled the early trajectory (to Mar. 25, 2020), and compared the default model projections with observed COVID-19 admissions in each hospital from Mar. 25 to May 6, 2020. RESULTS: For the hospitals to remain below non-ICU bed capacity, the default pessimistic scenario required a reduction in non-COVID-19 inpatient care by 38% and 28%, respectively, with St. Michael's Hospital requiring 40 new ICU beds and St. Joseph's Health Centre reducing its ICU beds for non-COVID-19 care by 6%. The absolute difference between default-projected and observed census of inpatients with COVID-19 at each hospital was less than 20 from Mar. 25 to Apr. 11; projected and observed cases diverged widely thereafter. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. INTERPRETATION: Scenario-based analyses were reliable in estimating short-term cases, but would require frequent re-analyses. Distribution of the city's surge was expected to vary across hospitals, and community-level strategies were key to mitigating each hospital's surge.

Does diabetes mellitus affect presentation, stage and survival in operable pancreatic cancer?

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study is to investigate differences in clinical presentation, disease stage and survival of operable pancreatic cancer patients with new onset DM compared to long standing diabetes mellitus (DM) and non diabetics. METHODS: A prospectively maintained pancreatic cancer surgery database of a tertiary care teaching hospital from January 2006 to August 2012 was reviewed. Only patients with a histological diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma (PC) were included in final analysis. DM was defined as HbA1c >6.5% or any patient on anti-diabetic treatment regardless of HbA1c value. New onset DM was defined when diagnosed within two preceding years of surgery. Patients were stratified into two groups: DM and non DM. Among the DM patients, patients with new onset DM were further stratified and studied separately. Staging of PC was performed according to the 6(th) edition of AJCC. Survival of patients with PC was determined by reviewing medical records. Patients and their families were contacted if there was no existing follow-up. RESULTS: Eighty-six patients (n=55, 63.9% male) with a mean age of 62 years (range, 29-85 years) underwent pancreatic cancer surgery during the study period. Of the 86 patients, 30 (34%) had DM of which eight patients (9% overall) had new onset DM. DM patients tended to be older compared to non DM patients (67.8 vs. 58.5 years, P=0.0005). The majority of non DM patients were symptomatic (98.2%), and there was a tendency for DM group patients to be asymptomatic at presentation (13.3% vs. 1.8%, P=0.05). Abdominal pain was less common in DM patients compared to non DM patients (30% vs. 53.6%, P=0.04). The median duration of new onset DM prior to diagnosis of PC was 2 months (range, 1-23 months). There was a tendency for DM patients to present at an early stage (stage I and stage II) (P=0.08). There was no difference in survival (P=0.17) for new onset DM compared to long standing DM and non DM patients. CONCLUSIONS: DM patients tend to be older and are less likely to present with abdominal pain. Asymptomatic presentation and early stage disease tends to occur in DM patients. A larger sample size is required to determine if survival of new onset DM patients differs from long standing and non DM patients.

Twelve-month outcomes of the loozit randomized controlled trial: a community-based healthy lifestyle program for overweight and obese adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the outcomes of the Loozit adolescent weight management intervention and to evaluate the effect of additional therapeutic contact 12 months into the program. DESIGN: A 24-month, 2-arm randomized controlled trial. Results at 12 months are presented. SETTING: Community health center and children's hospital in Sydney, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 151 overweight or obese 13- to 16-year-olds. INTERVENTION: In the first 2 months (phase 1), participants received 7 adolescent and parent weekly sessions focused on lifestyle modification. From 2 to 24 months (phase 2), adolescents attended booster sessions once every 3 months. During phase 2, adolescents randomized to the additional therapeutic contact arm also received telephone coaching and electronic communications once every 2 weeks. OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline to 12-month changes in body mass index z score and waist to height ratio (primary outcomes) and changes in metabolic, psychosocial, and behavioral variables. RESULTS: Of 151 randomized adolescents, 82.1% completed 12-month follow-up. Intent-to-treat analyses showed significant reductions in mean body mass index z score (-0.09; 95% CI, -0.12 to -0.06), waist to height ratio (-0.02; 95% CI, -0.03 to -0.01), total cholesterol level (-4 mg/dL; 95% CI, -8 to 0 mg/dL; to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0259), and triglycerides level (geometric mean, -80 mg/dL; 95% CI, -88 to -71 mg/dL; to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0113). Most psychosocial outcomes improved, including global self-worth, but there were few dietary, physical activity, or sedentary behavior changes. No difference was found in primary outcomes between participants who did or did not receive additional therapeutic contact. CONCLUSIONS: The Loozit randomized controlled trial produced a significant but modest reduction in body mass index z score and improved psychosocial outcomes at 12 months. Supplementary telephone and electronic contact provided no additional benefit at 12 months. Trial Registration anzctr.org.au Identifier: 12606000175572.

Recruitment challenges and recommendations for adolescent obesity trials.

AIM: To report our experiences with recruiting overweight and obese 13- to 16-year-olds for the Loozit® weight management randomised control trial (RCT) and to identify effective strategies for recruiting adolescents from the community to a treatment trial. METHODS: The Loozit RCT is a two-arm, community-based, lifestyle intervention that aims to evaluate the effect of additional therapeutic contact provided via telephone coaching and electronic communications as an adjunct to the Loozit group programme. Strategic areas that were targeted to recruit adolescents included media, schools, health professionals and community organisations. The programme aimed to recruit a cohort of 12-16 adolescents (body mass index z-score range 1.0-2.5) aged 13-16 years every 3 months over 3 years. Information regarding recruitment and eligibility to participate was initially assessed during a telephone screen. The relative cost effectiveness of recruitment strategies was determined based on recruitment rates and costs including administrative costs and research assistant time. RESULTS: Out of 474 enquiries, 32% resulted in an enrollment to the RCT. Newspaper articles and school newsletters accounted for nearly 60% of enquiries and enrollments and were the most cost-effective recruitment strategies. Common reasons for ineligibility for inclusion in the RCT were adolescents being too young (21%) and parents consenting but adolescents refusing to participate (17%). CONCLUSIONS: The most successful recruitment strategies for the Loozit RCT were local newspapers and school newsletters. Future studies should consider involving a Public Relations department and other potentially cost-effective strategies such as peer recruitment.

Short-term outcomes of community-based adolescent weight management: The Loozit® Study.

BACKGROUND: The Loozit(®) Study is a randomised controlled trial investigating extended support in a 24 month community-based weight management program for overweight to moderately obese, but otherwise healthy, 13 to 16 year olds. METHODS: This pre-post study examines the two month outcomes of the initial Loozit(®) group intervention received by both study arms. Adolescents (n = 151; 48% male) and their parents separately attended seven weekly group sessions focused on lifestyle modification. At baseline and two months, adolescents' anthropometry, blood pressure, and fasted blood sample were assessed. Primary outcomes were two month changes in body mass index (BMI) z-score and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR). Secondary outcomes included changes in metabolic profile, self-reported dietary intake/patterns, physical and sedentary activities, psychological characteristics and social status. Changes in outcome measures were assessed using paired samples t-tests for continuous variables or McNemar's test for dichotomous categorical variables. RESULTS: Of the 151 adolescents who enrolled, 130 (86%) completed the two month program. Among these 130 adolescents (47% male), there was a statistically significant (P < 0.01) reduction in mean [95% CI] BMI (0.27 kg/m2 [0.41, 0.13]), BMI z-score (0.05 [0.06, 0.03]), WHtR (0.02 [0.03, 0.01]), total cholesterol (0.14 mmol/L [0.24, 0.05]) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.12 mmol/L [0.21, 0.04]). There were improvements in all psychological measures, the majority of the dietary intake measures, and some physical activities (P < 0.05). Time spent watching TV and participating in non-screen sedentary activities decreased (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The Loozit(®) program may be a promising option for stabilizing overweight and improving various metabolic factors, psychological functioning and lifestyle behaviors in overweight adolescents in a community setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials RegistryACTRNO12606000175572.

A parent-led family-focused treatment program for overweight children aged 5 to 9 years: the PEACH RCT.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a healthy lifestyle intervention to reduce adiposity in children aged 5 to 9 years and assess whether adding parenting skills training would enhance this effect. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: We conducted a single-blinded randomized controlled trial of prepubertal moderately obese (International Obesity Task Force cut points) children, aged 5 to 9 years. The 6-month program targeted parents as the agents of change for implementing family lifestyle changes. Only parents attended group sessions. We measured BMI and waist z scores and parenting constructs at baseline, 6, 12, 18, 24 months. RESULTS: Participants (n = 169; 56% girls) were randomized to a parenting skills plus healthy lifestyle group (n = 85) or a healthy lifestyle-only group (n = 84). At final 24-month assessment 52 and 54 children remained in the parenting skills plus healthy lifestyle and the healthy lifestyle-only groups respectively. There were reductions (P < .001) in BMI z score (0.26 [95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.30]) and waist z score (0.33 [95% confidence interval: 0.26-0.40]). There was a 10% reduction in z scores from baseline to 6 months that was maintained to 24 months with no additional intervention. Overall, there was no significant group effect. A similar pattern of initial improvement followed by stability was observed for parenting outcomes and no group effect. CONCLUSIONS: Using approaches that specifically target parent behavior, relative weight loss of ∼10% is achievable in moderately obese prepubertal children and can be maintained for 2 years from baseline. These results justify an investment in treatment as an effective secondary obesity-prevention strategy.

Electronic therapeutic contact for adolescent weight management: the Loozit study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine adolescent and facilitator participation in the first 10 months of an obesity management intervention including electronic contact (e-contact) via e-mail and short message service (SMS) communication. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants (n=49) were overweight and obese (13-16 year olds) and were randomized to receive e-contact in the Loozit trial. Adolescents were sent brief, semipersonalized health messages approximately monthly, from 2 to 12 months. We analyzed adolescents' response patterns, reply content, satisfaction with e-contact intervention, and facilitator responsiveness. Two coding systems described the general attributes and content of adolescent replies and facilitator responses. RESULTS: Adolescents' overall reply rate was 22%. There was no difference in age, sex, socioeconomic status, body mass index z-score, or initial group program attendance between the 27 adolescents who replied to 0-2 messages and the 22 who replied to >or=3 messages. Adolescent SMS replies had less characters and a quicker response time compared with e-mail replies. Adolescent responses were largely relevant to initial health messages sent (91%), with few using "SMS language" (17%) or emoticons (7%). Most adolescents rated e-contact as "somewhat helpful." Facilitators responded to 93% of adolescent replies, and most responses were personalized (93%), encouraging (88%), and educational (75%). CONCLUSIONS: Although adolescent engagement was modest, SMS and e-mail communication is a feasible and acceptable adjunct to group lifestyle intervention and telephone coaching in overweight and obese adolescents. Healthy eating messages and those concluding with "please reply" elicited the highest reply rates, and thus these message types should be included in future adolescent e-contact interventions.

A randomised controlled trial of a community-based healthy lifestyle program for overweight and obese adolescents: the Loozit study protocol.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to develop sustainable and clinically effective weight management interventions that are suitable for delivery in community settings where the vast majority of overweight and obese adolescents should be treated. This study aims to evaluate the effect of additional therapeutic contact as an adjunct to the Loozit group program -- a community-based, lifestyle intervention for overweight and lower grade obesity in adolescents. The additional therapeutic contact is provided via telephone coaching and either mobile phone Short Message Service or electronic mail, or both. METHODS AND DESIGN: The study design is a two-arm randomised controlled trial that aims to recruit 168 overweight and obese 13-16 year olds (Body Mass Index z-score 1.0 to 2.5) in Sydney, Australia. Adolescents with secondary causes of obesity or significant medical illness are excluded. Participants are recruited via schools, media coverage, health professionals and several community organisations. Study arm one receives the Loozit group weight management program (G). Study arm two receives the same Loozit group weight management program plus additional therapeutic contact (G+ATC). The 'G' intervention consists of two phases. Phase 1 involves seven weekly group sessions held separately for adolescents and their parents. This is followed by phase 2 that involves a further seven group sessions held regularly, for adolescents only, until two years follow-up. Additional therapeutic contact is provided to adolescents in the 'G+ATC' study arm approximately once per fortnight during phase 2 only. Outcome measurements are assessed at 2, 12 and 24 months post-baseline and include: BMI z-score, waist z-score, metabolic profile indicators, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, eating patterns, and psychosocial well-being. DISCUSSION: The Loozit study is the first randomised controlled trial of a community-based adolescent weight management intervention to incorporate additional therapeutic contact via a combination of telephone coaching, mobile phone Short Message Service, and electronic mail. If shown to be successful, the Loozit group weight management program with additional therapeutic contact has the potential to be readily translatable to a range of health care settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol for this study is registered with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRNO12606000175572).