Association between daily aspirin therapy and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma according to metabolic risk factor burden in non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated chemopreventive effects of aspirin against hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To investigate the associations of aspirin use with risks of HCC, liver-related mortality, and major bleeding according to metabolic risk factor burden among non-cirrhotic patients with CHB METHODS: Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we identified 282,611 non-cirrhotic adults with CHB. Data on obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, and hypercholesterolemia were collected. Subjects were stratified into lower and higher metabolic risk groups (≤2 and ≥3 risk factors, respectively). Propensity score-matched cohorts of aspirin users and non-users were generated. Risks of HCC, liver-related death and major bleeding were analyzed. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, positive associations between metabolic risk factor burden and outcomes were verified (all ptrend < 0.001). In the lower metabolic risk group (13,104 pairs), the association between aspirin use and HCC risk was not significant after multivariable adjustment (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR]: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.84-1.03); however, aspirin use was associated with elevated major bleeding risk (aSHR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08-1.39). In the higher metabolic risk group (2984 pairs), aspirin use was associated with reduced risks of HCC (aSHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57-0.91) and liver-related mortality (aSHR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.50-0.96) without an increase in risk of major bleeding (aSHR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.79-1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin therapy was associated with reduced risks of HCC and liver-related death without excess risk of major bleeding, in non-cirrhotic patients with CHB who had a higher metabolic risk factor burden.

Effectiveness of Transarterial Chemoembolization-First Treatment for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Still in real-world practice, advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This study compared the therapeutic effectiveness of initial TACE treatment and initial sorafenib treatment in advanced HCC patients. PATIENT AND METHODS: Advanced HCC patients initially treated with sorafenib or TACE were included in this study. Treatment crossover due to an unfavorable response to initial treatment was allowed. Propensity score (PS) matching was applied for balancing baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) and the secondary outcomes included tumor response. RESULTS: A total of 554 patients were included in this study: 85 were initially treated with sorafenib (the sorafenib-first group) and 469 with TACE (the TACE-first group). In the entire cohort, the TACE-first group was associated with lower risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.75, P=0.04]. In the PS-matched cohort (85 patients per group), the TACE-first group showed longer OS than the sorafenib-first group in both univariable (HR=0.68, P=0.02) and multivariable analyses (adjusted HR=0.58, P=0.002). Specifically, within both the entire and the PS-matched cohorts, the TACE-first group showed longer OS in subgroups with major portal vein tumor thrombosis (HR=0.72, P=0.048; HR=0.52, P=0.003) or infiltrative HCC (HR=0.42, P<0.001; HR=0.30, P=0.004, respectively). The objective response rate was higher in the TACE-first group (29.3% vs 14.7%, P=0.03) within the PS-matched cohort. CONCLUSION: For advanced HCC, initial TACE leads to longer OS with a more favorable tumor response than initial sorafenib treatment. Intrahepatic tumor control with initial locoregional therapy may be a potent strategy for advanced HCC.

Empirical Treatment With Carbapenem vs Third-generation Cephalosporin for Treatment of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Third-generation cephalosporins (TGCs) are recommended as first-line antibiotics for treatment of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). However, antibiotics against multidrug-resistant organisms (such as carbapenems) might be necessary. We aimed to evaluate whether carbapenems are superior to TGC for treatment of SBP. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 865 consecutive patients with a first presentation of SBP (275 culture positive; 103 with TGC-resistant bacterial infections) treated at 7 referral centers in Korea, from September 2013 through January 2018. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We made all comparisons using data from patients whose baseline characteristics were balanced by inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: Of patients who initially received empirical treatment with antibiotics, 95 (11.0%) received carbapenems and 655 (75.7%) received TGCs. Among the entire study cohort, there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality between the carbapenem (25.8%) and TGC (25.3%) groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.85-1.11; P = .66). In the subgroup of patients with high chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) scores (score of 7 or greater, n = 314), carbapenem treatment was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (23.1%) than in the TGC group (38.8%) (aOR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94; P=.002). In contrast, among patients with lower CLIF-SOFA scores (n = 436), in-hospital mortality did not differ significantly between the carbapenem group (24.7%) and the TGC group (16.0%) (aOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.85-1.32; P = .58). CONCLUSIONS: For patients with a first presentation of SBP, empirical treatment with carbapenem does not reduce in-hospital mortality compared to treatment with TGCs. However, among critically ill patients (CLIF-SOFA scores ≥7), empirical carbapenem treatment was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality than TGCs.

Effectiveness of nivolumab versus regorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma patients who failed sorafenib treatment.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Several treatment options are currently available for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) failing previous sorafenib treatment. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of regorafenib and nivolumab in these patients. METHODS: Consecutive HCC patients who received regorafenib or nivolumab after failure of sorafenib treatment were included. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) and secondary endpoints were time to progression, tumor response rate, and adverse events. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score was conducted to reduce treatment selection bias. RESULTS: Among 150 study patients, 102 patients received regorafenib and 48 patients received nivolumab. Median OS was 6.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-10.8) months for regorafenib and 5.9 (95% CI, 3.7-8.1) months for nivolumab (P=0.77 by log-rank test). In multivariable analysis, nivolumab was associated with prolonged OS (vs. regorafenib: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.30-0.96; P=0.04). Time to progression was not significantly different between groups (nivolumab vs. regorafenib: aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.51-1.30; P=0.48). HRs were maintained after IPTW. Objective response rates were 5.9% and 16.7% in patients treated with regorafenib and nivolumab, respectively (P=0.04). CONCLUSION: After sorafenib failure, the use of nivolumab may be associated with improved OS and better objective response rate as compared to using regorafenib.

Design and validation of risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma can develop after hepatitis C virus eradication. We developed a new hepatocellular carcinoma risk score (HCC-SVR score) based on independent predictors for chronic hepatitis C after sustained virological response. METHODS: Between 2003 and 2016, a total of 1193 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response through antiviral therapy were included (669 for training cohort and 524 for validation cohort). The HCC-SVR score was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modelling. RESULTS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 19) occurred more frequently in older, male patients and was associated with liver cirrhosis; hypertension; diabetes; lower platelet count; higher alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate, and alanine aminotransferase; lower total cholesterol; and higher fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) (all P < 0.05). FIB-4 (hazard ratio = 1.080), male gender (hazard ratio = 8.189), and higher alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio = 1.060) independently predicted hepatocellular carcinoma (all P < 0.05). HCC-SVR score successfully predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development risk [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.771, 0.857, and 0.911 at 2, 4, and 6 years, respectively]. The cumulative incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma differed significantly among groups stratified by HCC-SVR risk score (0-2 points, low; 3-7 points, intermediate; 8-9 points, high risk) (all P < 0.05 by log-rank test). HCC-SVR score was maintained in a validation cohort (n = 524) (AUC = 0.728 at 2 years, 0.737 at 4 years, and 0.809 at 6 years). CONCLUSION: The HCC-SVR score enables risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma development at sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Tumor Marker-Based Definition of the Transarterial Chemoembolization-Refractoriness in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multi-Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the definition of refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which might make them a candidate for systemic therapy, is still controversial. We aimed to derive and validate a tumor marker-based algorithm to define the refractoriness to TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. METHODS: This multi-cohort study was comprised of patients who underwent TACE for treatment-naïve intermediate-stage HCC. We derived a prediction model for overall survival (OS) using the pre- and post-TACE model to predict tumor recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (MoRAL) (i.e., MoRAL score = 11×√protein induced by vitamin K absence-II + 2×√alpha-fetoprotein), which was proven to reflect both tumor burden and biologic aggressiveness of HCC in the explant liver, from a training cohort (n = 193). These results were externally validated in both an independent hospital cohort (from two large-volume centers, n = 140) and a Korean National Cancer Registry sample cohort (n = 149). RESULTS: The changes in MoRAL score (ΔMoRAL) after initial TACE was an independent predictor of OS (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-3.46, p = 0.001; median OS = 18.8 vs. 37.8 months). In a subgroup of patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5, 25th percentile and higher), the prognostic impact of ΔMoRAL was more pronounced (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.54-8.76, p < 0.001; median OS = 9.9 vs. 37.4 months). These results were reproduced in the external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: The ΔMoRAL after the first TACE, a simple and objective index, provides refined prognostication for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. Proceeding to a second TACE may not provide additional survival benefits in cases of a MoRAL-increase after the first TACE in patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5), who might be candidates for systemic therapy.