Causal dynamics of sleep, circadian rhythm, and mood symptoms in patients with major depression and bipolar disorder: insights from longitudinal wearable device data.

BACKGROUND: Sleep and circadian rhythm disruptions are common in patients with mood disorders. The intricate relationship between these disruptions and mood has been investigated, but their causal dynamics remain unknown. METHODS: We analysed data from 139 patients (76 female, mean age = 23.5 ± 3.64 years) with mood disorders who participated in a prospective observational study in South Korea. The patients wore wearable devices to monitor sleep and engaged in smartphone-delivered ecological momentary assessment of mood symptoms. Using a mathematical model, we estimated their daily circadian phase based on sleep data. Subsequently, we obtained daily time series for sleep/circadian phase estimates and mood symptoms spanning >40,000 days. We analysed the causal relationship between the time series using transfer entropy, a non-linear causal inference method. FINDINGS: The transfer entropy analysis suggested causality from circadian phase disturbance to mood symptoms in both patients with MDD (n = 45) and BD type I (n = 35), as 66.7% and 85.7% of the patients with a large dataset (>600 days) showed causality, but not in patients with BD type II (n = 59). Surprisingly, no causal relationship was suggested between sleep phase disturbances and mood symptoms. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that in patients with mood disorders, circadian phase disturbances directly precede mood symptoms. This underscores the potential of targeting circadian rhythms in digital medicine, such as sleep or light exposure interventions, to restore circadian phase and thereby manage mood disorders effectively. FUNDING: Institute for Basic Science, the Human Frontiers Science Program Organization, the National Research Foundation of Korea, and the Ministry of Health & Welfare of South Korea.

Ensemble Approach to Combining Episode Prediction Models Using Sequential Circadian Rhythm Sensor Data from Mental Health Patients.

Managing mood disorders poses challenges in counseling and drug treatment, owing to limitations. Counseling is the most effective during hospital visits, and the side effects of drugs can be burdensome. Patient empowerment is crucial for understanding and managing these triggers. The daily monitoring of mental health and the utilization of episode prediction tools can enable self-management and provide doctors with insights into worsening lifestyle patterns. In this study, we test and validate whether the prediction of future depressive episodes in individuals with depression can be achieved by using lifelog sequence data collected from digital device sensors. Diverse models such as random forest, hidden Markov model, and recurrent neural network were used to analyze the time-series data and make predictions about the occurrence of depressive episodes in the near future. The models were then combined into a hybrid model. The prediction accuracy of the hybrid model was 0.78; especially in the prediction of rare episode events, the F1-score performance was approximately 1.88 times higher than that of the dummy model. We explored factors such as data sequence size, train-to-test data ratio, and class-labeling time slots that can affect the model performance to determine the combinations of parameters that optimize the model performance. Our findings are especially valuable because they are experimental results derived from large-scale participant data analyzed over a long period of time.

Effect of a Wearable Device-Based Physical Activity Intervention in North Korean Refugees: Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Effective health interventions for North Korean refugees vulnerable to metabolic disorders are currently unelucidated. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the effects of digital health interventions in North Korean refugees using a wearable activity tracker (Fitbit device). METHODS: We conducted a prospective, randomized, open-label study on North Korean refugees aged 19-59 years between June 2020 and October 2021 with a 12-week follow-up period. The participants were randomly assigned to either an intervention group or a control group in a 1:1 ratio. The intervention group received individualized health counseling based on Fitbit data every 4 weeks, whereas the control group wore the Fitbit device but did not receive individualized counseling. The primary and secondary outcomes were the change in the mean daily step count and changes in the metabolic parameters, respectively. RESULTS: The trial was completed by 52 North Korean refugees, of whom 27 and 25 were in the intervention and control groups, respectively. The mean age was 43 (SD 10) years, and 41 (78.8%) participants were women. Most participants (44/52, 95.7%) had a low socioeconomic status. After the intervention, the daily step count in the intervention group increased, whereas that in the control group decreased. However, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups (+83 and -521 steps in the intervention and control groups, respectively; P=.500). The effects of the intervention were more prominent in the participants with a lower-than-average daily step count at baseline (<11,667 steps/day). After the 12-week study period, 85.7% (12/14) and 46.7% (7/15) of the participants in the intervention and control groups, respectively, had an increased daily step count (P=.05). The intervention prevented the worsening of the metabolic parameters, including BMI, waist circumference, fasting blood glucose level, and glycated hemoglobin level, during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The wearable device-based physical activity intervention did not significantly increase the average daily step count in the North Korean refugees in this study. However, the intervention was effective among the North Korean refugees with a lower-than-average daily step count; therefore, a large-scale, long-term study of this intervention type in an underserved population is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Research Information Service KCT0007999; https://cris.nih.go.kr/cris/search/detailSearch.do/23622.

Prediction of impending mood episode recurrence using real-time digital phenotypes in major depression and bipolar disorders in South Korea: a prospective nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mood disorders require consistent management of symptoms to prevent recurrences of mood episodes. Circadian rhythm (CR) disruption is a key symptom of mood disorders to be proactively managed to prevent mood episode recurrences. This study aims to predict impending mood episodes recurrences using digital phenotypes related to CR obtained from wearable devices and smartphones. METHODS: The study is a multicenter, nationwide, prospective, observational study with major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder I, and bipolar II disorder. A total of 495 patients were recruited from eight hospitals in South Korea. Patients were followed up for an average of 279.7 days (a total sample of 75 506 days) with wearable devices and smartphones and with clinical interviews conducted every 3 months. Algorithms predicting impending mood episodes were developed with machine learning. Algorithm-predicted mood episodes were then compared to those identified through face-to-face clinical interviews incorporating ecological momentary assessments of daily mood and energy. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy mood episodes recurred in 135 subjects during the follow-up period. The prediction accuracies for impending major depressive episodes, manic episodes, and hypomanic episodes for the next 3 days were 90.1, 92.6, and 93.0%, with the area under the curve values of 0.937, 0.957, and 0.963, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted the onset of mood episode recurrences exclusively using digital phenotypes. Specifically, phenotypes indicating CR misalignment contributed the most to the prediction of episodes recurrences. Our findings suggest that monitoring of CR using digital devices can be useful in preventing and treating mood disorders.

Identification of Healthy and Unhealthy Lifestyles by a Wearable Activity Tracker in Type 2 Diabetes: A Machine Learning-Based Analysis.

Lifestyle is a critical aspect of diabetes management. We aimed to define a healthy lifestyle using objectively measured parameters obtained from a wearable activity tracker (Fitbit) in patients with type 2 diabetes. This prospective observational study included 24 patients (mean age, 46.8 years) with type 2 diabetes. Expectation-maximization clustering analysis produced two groups: A (n=9) and B (n=15). Group A had a higher daily step count, lower resting heart rate, longer sleep duration, and lower mean time differences in going to sleep and waking up than group B. A Shapley additive explanation summary analysis indicated that sleep-related factors were key elements for clustering. The mean hemoglobin A1c level was 0.3 percentage points lower at the end of follow-up in group A than in group B. Factors related to regular sleep patterns could be possible determinants of lifestyle clustering in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Effectiveness of a Smartphone App With a Wearable Activity Tracker in Preventing the Recurrence of Mood Disorders: Prospective Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Smartphones and wearable devices can be used to obtain diverse daily log data related to circadian rhythms. For patients with mood disorders, giving feedback via a smartphone app with appropriate behavioral correction guides could play an important therapeutic role in the real world. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a smartphone app named Circadian Rhythm for Mood (CRM), which was developed to prevent mood episodes based on a machine learning algorithm that uses passive digital phenotype data of circadian rhythm behaviors obtained with a wearable activity tracker. The feedback intervention for the CRM app consisted of a trend report of mood prediction, H-score feedback with behavioral guidance, and an alert system triggered when trending toward a high-risk state. METHODS: In total, 73 patients with a major mood disorder were recruited and allocated in a nonrandomized fashion into 2 groups: the CRM group (14 patients) and the non-CRM group (59 patients). After the data qualification process, 10 subjects in the CRM group and 33 subjects in the non-CRM group were evaluated over 12 months. Both groups were treated in a similar manner. Patients took their usual medications, wore a wrist-worn activity tracker, and checked their eMoodChart daily. Patients in the CRM group were provided with daily feedback on their mood prediction and health scores based on the algorithm. For the CRM group, warning alerts were given when irregular life patterns were observed. However, these alerts were not given to patients in the non-CRM group. Every 3 months, mood episodes that had occurred in the previous 3 months were assessed based on the completed daily eMoodChart for both groups. The clinical course and prognosis, including mood episodes, were evaluated via face-to-face interviews based on the completed daily eMoodChart. For a 1-year prospective period, the number and duration of mood episodes were compared between the CRM and non-CRM groups using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: The CRM group had 96.7% fewer total depressive episodes (n/year; exp ß=0.033, P=.03), 99.5% shorter depressive episodes (total; exp ß=0.005, P<.001), 96.1% shorter manic or hypomanic episodes (exp ß=0.039, P<.001), 97.4% fewer total mood episodes (exp ß=0.026, P=.008), and 98.9% shorter mood episodes (total; exp ß=0.011, P<.001) than the non-CRM group. Positive changes in health behaviors due to the alerts and in wearable device adherence rates were observed in the CRM group. CONCLUSIONS: The CRM app with a wearable activity tracker was found to be effective in preventing and reducing the recurrence of mood disorders, improving prognosis, and promoting better health behaviors. Patients appeared to develop a regular habit of using the CRM app. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03088657; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03088657.