Fine-Grained Forecasting of COVID-19 Trends at the County Level in the United States.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, first identified in Wuhan China in December 2019, has profoundly impacted various aspects of daily life, society, healthcare systems, and global health policies. There have been more than half a billion human infections and more than 6 million deaths globally attributable to COVID-19. Although treatments and vaccines to protect against COVID-19 are now available, people continue being hospitalized and dying due to COVID-19 infections. Real-time surveillance of population-level infections, hospitalizations, and deaths has helped public health officials better allocate healthcare resources and deploy mitigation strategies. However, producing reliable, real-time, short-term disease activity forecasts (one or two weeks into the future) remains a practical challenge. The recent emergence of robust time-series forecasting methodologies based on deep learning approaches has led to clear improvements in multiple research fields. We propose a recurrent neural network model named Fine-Grained Infection Forecast Network (FIGI-Net), which utilizes a stacked bidirectional LSTM structure designed to leverage fine-grained county-level data, to produce daily forecasts of COVID-19 infection trends up to two weeks in advance. We show that FIGI-Net improves existing COVID-19 forecasting approaches and delivers accurate county-level COVID-19 disease estimates. Specifically, FIGI-Net is capable of anticipating upcoming sudden changes in disease trends such as the onset of a new outbreak or the peak of an ongoing outbreak, a skill that multiple existing state-of-the-art models fail to achieve. This improved performance is observed across locations and periods. Our enhanced forecasting methodologies may help protect human populations against future disease outbreaks.

Survivin as a mediator of stiffness-induced cell cycle progression and proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells.

Stiffened arteries are a pathology of atherosclerosis, hypertension, and coronary artery disease and a key risk factor for cardiovascular disease events. The increased stiffness of arteries triggers a phenotypic switch, hypermigration, and hyperproliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs), leading to neointimal hyperplasia and accelerated neointima formation. However, the mechanism underlying this trigger remains unknown. Our analyses of whole-transcriptome microarray data from mouse VSMCs cultured on stiff hydrogels simulating arterial pathology identified 623 genes that were significantly and differentially expressed (360 upregulated and 263 downregulated) relative to expression in VSMCs cultured on soft hydrogels. Functional enrichment and gene network analyses revealed that these stiffness-sensitive genes are linked to cell cycle progression and proliferation. Importantly, we found that survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis protein, mediates stiffness-dependent cell cycle progression and proliferation as determined by gene network and pathway analyses, RT-qPCR, immunoblotting, and cell proliferation assays. Furthermore, we found that inhibition of cell cycle progression did not reduce survivin expression, suggesting that survivin functions as an upstream regulator of cell cycle progression and proliferation in response to ECM stiffness. Mechanistically, we found that the stiffness signal is mechanotransduced via the FAK-E2F1 signaling axis to regulate survivin expression, establishing a regulatory pathway for how the stiffness of the cellular microenvironment affects VSMC behaviors. Overall, our findings indicate that survivin is necessary for VSMC cycling and proliferation and plays a role in regulating stiffness-responsive phenotypes.

Survivin regulates intracellular stiffness and extracellular matrix production in vascular smooth muscle cells.

Vascular dysfunction is a common cause of cardiovascular diseases characterized by the narrowing and stiffening of arteries, such as atherosclerosis, restenosis, and hypertension. Arterial narrowing results from the aberrant proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) and their increased synthesis and deposition of extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins. These, in turn, are modulated by arterial stiffness, but the mechanism for this is not fully understood. We found that survivin is an important regulator of stiffness-mediated ECM synthesis and intracellular stiffness in VSMCs. Whole-transcriptome analysis and cell culture experiments showed that survivin expression is upregulated in injured femoral arteries in mice and in human VSMCs cultured on stiff fibronectin-coated hydrogels. Suppressed expression of survivin in human VSMCs significantly decreased the stiffness-mediated expression of ECM components related to arterial stiffening, such as collagen-I, fibronectin, and lysyl oxidase. By contrast, expression of these ECM proteins was rescued by ectopic expression of survivin in human VSMCs cultured on soft hydrogels. Interestingly, atomic force microscopy analysis showed that suppressed or ectopic expression of survivin decreases or increases intracellular stiffness, respectively. Furthermore, we observed that inhibiting Rac and Rho reduces survivin expression, elucidating a mechanical pathway connecting intracellular tension, mediated by Rac and Rho, to survivin induction. Finally, we found that survivin inhibition decreases FAK phosphorylation, indicating that survivin-dependent intracellular tension feeds back to maintain signaling through FAK. These findings suggest a novel mechanism by which survivin potentially modulates arterial stiffness.

Screening adequacy of unstained thyroid fine needle aspiration samples using a deep learning-based classifier.

Fine needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy of thyroid nodules is a safe, cost-effective, and accurate diagnostic method for detecting thyroid cancer. However, about 10% of initial FNA biopsy samples from patients are non-diagnostic and require repeated FNA, which delays the diagnosis and appropriate care. On-site evaluation of the FNA sample can be performed to filter out non-diagnostic FNA samples. Unfortunately, it involves a time-consuming staining process, and a cytopathologist has to be present at the time of FNA. To bypass the staining process and expert interpretation of FNA specimens at the clinics, we developed a deep learning-based ensemble model termed FNA-Net that allows in situ screening of adequacy of unstained thyroid FNA samples smeared on a glass slide which can decrease the non-diagnostic rate in thyroid FNA. FNA-Net combines two deep learning models, a patch-based whole slide image classifier and Faster R-CNN, to detect follicular clusters with high precision. Then, FNA-Net classifies sample slides to be non-diagnostic if the total number of detected follicular clusters is less than a predetermined threshold. With bootstrapped sampling, FNA-Net achieved a 0.81 F1 score and 0.84 AUC in the precision-recall curve for detecting the non-diagnostic slides whose follicular clusters are less than six. We expect that FNA-Net can dramatically reduce the diagnostic cost associated with FNA biopsy and improve the quality of patient care.

Deep cross-modal feature learning applied to predict acutely decompensated heart failure using in-home collected electrocardiography and transthoracic bioimpedance.

BACKGROUND: Deep learning has been successfully applied to ECG data to aid in the accurate and more rapid diagnosis of acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Previous applications focused primarily on classifying known ECG patterns in well-controlled clinical settings. However, this approach does not fully capitalize on the potential of deep learning, which directly learns important features without relying on a priori knowledge. In addition, deep learning applications to ECG data obtained from wearable devices have not been well studied, especially in the field of ADHF prediction. METHODS: We used ECG and transthoracic bioimpedance data from the SENTINEL-HF study, which enrolled patients (≥21 years) who were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of heart failure or with ADHF symptoms. To build an ECG-based prediction model of ADHF, we developed a deep cross-modal feature learning pipeline, termed ECGX-Net, that utilizes raw ECG time series and transthoracic bioimpedance data from wearable devices. To extract rich features from ECG time series data, we first adopted a transfer learning approach in which ECG time series were transformed into 2D images, followed by feature extraction using ImageNet-pretrained DenseNet121/VGG19 models. After data filtering, we applied cross-modal feature learning in which a regressor was trained with ECG and transthoracic bioimpedance. Then, we concatenated the DenseNet121/VGG19 features with the regression features and used them to train a support vector machine (SVM) without bioimpedance information. RESULTS: The high-precision classifier using ECGX-Net predicted ADHF with a precision of 94 %, a recall of 79 %, and an F1-score of 0.85. The high-recall classifier with only DenseNet121 had a precision of 80 %, a recall of 98 %, and an F1-score of 0.88. We found that ECGX-Net was effective for high-precision classification, while DenseNet121 was effective for high-recall classification. CONCLUSION: We show the potential for predicting ADHF from single-channel ECG recordings obtained from outpatients, enabling timely warning signs of heart failure. Our cross-modal feature learning pipeline is expected to improve ECG-based heart failure prediction by handling the unique requirements of medical scenarios and resource limitations.

Unsupervised Contour Tracking of Live Cells by Mechanical and Cycle Consistency Losses.

Analyzing the dynamic changes of cellular morphology is important for understanding the various functions and characteristics of live cells, including stem cells and metastatic cancer cells. To this end, we need to track all points on the highly deformable cellular contour in every frame of live cell video. Local shapes and textures on the contour are not evident, and their motions are complex, often with expansion and contraction of local contour features. The prior arts for optical flow or deep point set tracking are unsuited due to the fluidity of cells, and previous deep contour tracking does not consider point correspondence. We propose the first deep learning-based tracking of cellular (or more generally viscoelastic materials) contours with point correspondence by fusing dense representation between two contours with cross attention. Since it is impractical to manually label dense tracking points on the contour, unsupervised learning comprised of the mechanical and cyclical consistency losses is proposed to train our contour tracker. The mechanical loss forcing the points to move perpendicular to the contour effectively helps out. For quantitative evaluation, we labeled sparse tracking points along the contour of live cells from two live cell datasets taken with phase contrast and confocal fluorescence microscopes. Our contour tracker quantitatively outperforms compared methods and produces qualitatively more favorable results. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/JunbongJang/contour-tracking/.

Heterogeneity-Preserving Discriminative Feature Selection for Subtype Discovery.

The discovery of subtypes is pivotal for disease diagnosis and targeted therapy, considering the diverse responses of different cells or patients to specific treatments. Exploring the heterogeneity within disease or cell states provides insights into disease progression mechanisms and cell differentiation. The advent of high-throughput technologies has enabled the generation and analysis of various molecular data types, such as single-cell RNA-seq, proteomic, and imaging datasets, at large scales. While presenting opportunities for subtype discovery, these datasets pose challenges in finding relevant signatures due to their high dimensionality. Feature selection, a crucial step in the analysis pipeline, involves choosing signatures that reduce the feature size for more efficient downstream computational analysis. Numerous existing methods focus on selecting signatures that differentiate known diseases or cell states, yet they often fall short in identifying features that preserve heterogeneity and reveal subtypes. To identify features that can capture the diversity within each class while also maintaining the discrimination of known disease states, we employed deep metric learning-based feature embedding to conduct a detailed exploration of the statistical properties of features essential in preserving heterogeneity. Our analysis revealed that features with a significant difference in interquartile range (IQR) between classes possess crucial subtype information. Guided by this insight, we developed a robust statistical method, termed PHet (Preserving Heterogeneity) that performs iterative subsampling differential analysis of IQR and Fisher's method between classes, identifying a minimal set of heterogeneity-preserving discriminative features to optimize subtype clustering quality. Validation using public single-cell RNA-seq and microarray datasets showcased PHet's effectiveness in preserving sample heterogeneity while maintaining discrimination of known disease/cell states, surpassing the performance of previous outlier-based methods. Furthermore, analysis of a single-cell RNA-seq dataset from mouse tracheal epithelial cells revealed, through PHet-based features, the presence of two distinct basal cell subtypes undergoing differentiation toward a luminal secretory phenotype. Notably, one of these subtypes exhibited high expression of BPIFA1. Interestingly, previous studies have linked BPIFA1 secretion to the emergence of secretory cells during mucociliary differentiation of airway epithelial cells. PHet successfully pinpointed the basal cell subtype associated with this phenomenon, a distinction that pre-annotated markers and dispersion-based features failed to make due to their admixed feature expression profiles. These findings underscore the potential of our method to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms underlying diseases and cell differentiation and contribute significantly to personalized medicine.

Protocol for live cell image segmentation to profile cellular morphodynamics using MARS-Net.

Quantitative studies of cellular morphodynamics rely on accurate cell segmentation in live cell images. However, fluorescence and phase contrast imaging hinder accurate edge localization. To address this challenge, we developed MARS-Net, a deep learning model integrating ImageNet-pretrained VGG19 encoder and U-Net decoder trained on the datasets from multiple types of microscopy images. Here, we provide the protocol for installing MARS-Net, labeling images, training MARS-Net for edge localization, evaluating the trained models' performance, and performing the quantitative profiling of cellular morphodynamics. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Jang et al. (2021).

A deep learning-based segmentation pipeline for profiling cellular morphodynamics using multiple types of live cell microscopy.

MOTIVATION: Quantitative studies of cellular morphodynamics rely on extracting leading-edge velocity time series based on accurate cell segmentation from live cell imaging. However, live cell imaging has numerous challenging issues regarding accurate edge localization. Fluorescence live cell imaging produces noisy and low-contrast images due to phototoxicity and photobleaching. While phase contrast microscopy is gentle to live cells, it suffers from the halo and shade-off artifacts that cannot be handled by conventional segmentation algorithms. Here, we present a deep learning-based pipeline, termed MARS-Net (Multiple-microscopy-type-based Accurate and Robust Segmentation Network), that utilizes transfer learning and data from multiple types of microscopy to localize cell edges with high accuracy, allowing quantitative profiling of cellular morphodynamics. SUMMARY: To accurately segment cell edges and quantify cellular morphodynamics from live-cell imaging data, we developed a deep learning-based pipeline termed MARS-Net (multiple-microscopy-type-based accurate and robust segmentation network). MARS-Net utilizes transfer learning and data from multiple types of microscopy to localize cell edges with high accuracy. For effective training on distinct types of live-cell microscopy, MARS-Net comprises a pretrained VGG19 encoder with U-Net decoder and dropout layers. We trained MARS-Net on movies from phase-contrast, spinning-disk confocal, and total internal reflection fluorescence microscopes. MARS-Net produced more accurate edge localization than the neural network models trained with single-microscopy-type datasets. We expect that MARS-Net can accelerate the studies of cellular morphodynamics by providing accurate pixel-level segmentation of complex live-cell datasets.

A machine learning pipeline revealing heterogeneous responses to drug perturbations on vascular smooth muscle cell spheroid morphology and formation.

Machine learning approaches have shown great promise in biology and medicine discovering hidden information to further understand complex biological and pathological processes. In this study, we developed a deep learning-based machine learning algorithm to meaningfully process image data and facilitate studies in vascular biology and pathology. Vascular injury and atherosclerosis are characterized by neointima formation caused by the aberrant accumulation and proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) within the vessel wall. Understanding how to control VSMC behaviors would promote the development of therapeutic targets to treat vascular diseases. However, the response to drug treatments among VSMCs with the same diseased vascular condition is often heterogeneous. Here, to identify the heterogeneous responses of drug treatments, we created an in vitro experimental model system using VSMC spheroids and developed a machine learning-based computational method called HETEROID (heterogeneous spheroid). First, we established a VSMC spheroid model that mimics neointima-like formation and the structure of arteries. Then, to identify the morphological subpopulations of drug-treated VSMC spheroids, we used a machine learning framework that combines deep learning-based spheroid segmentation and morphological clustering analysis. Our machine learning approach successfully showed that FAK, Rac, Rho, and Cdc42 inhibitors differentially affect spheroid morphology, suggesting that multiple drug responses of VSMC spheroid formation exist. Overall, our HETEROID pipeline enables detailed quantitative drug characterization of morphological changes in neointima formation, that occurs in vivo, by single-spheroid analysis.

Increased prevalence of indoor Aspergillus and Penicillium species is associated with indoor flooding and coastal proximity: a case study of 28 moldy buildings.

Indoor flooding is a leading contributor to indoor dampness and the associated mold infestations in the coastal United States. Whether the prevalent mold genera that infest the coastal flood-prone buildings are different from those not flood-prone is unknown. In the current case study of 28 mold-infested buildings across the U.S. east coast, we surprisingly noted a trend of higher prevalence of indoor Aspergillus and Penicillium genera (denoted here as Asp-Pen) in buildings with previous flooding history. Hence, we sought to determine the possibility of a potential statistically significant association between indoor Asp-Pen prevalence and three building-related variables: (i) indoor flooding history, (ii) geographical location, and (iii) the building's use (residential versus non-residential). Culturable spores and hyphal fragments in indoor air were collected using the settle-plate method, and corresponding genera were confirmed using phylogenetic analysis of their ITS sequence (the fungal barcode). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) using Generalized linear model procedure (GLM) showed that Asp-Pen prevalence is significantly associated with indoor flooding as well as coastal proximity. To address the small sample size, a multivariate decision tree analysis was conducted, which ranked indoor flooding history as the strongest determinant of Asp-Pen prevalence, followed by geographical location and the building's use.

Mechanosensitive expression of lamellipodin promotes intracellular stiffness, cyclin expression and cell proliferation.

Cell cycle control is a key aspect of numerous physiological and pathological processes. The contribution of biophysical cues, such as stiffness or elasticity of the underlying extracellular matrix (ECM), is critically important in regulating cell cycle progression and proliferation. Indeed, increased ECM stiffness causes aberrant cell cycle progression and proliferation. However, the molecular mechanisms that control these stiffness-mediated cellular responses remain unclear. Here, we address this gap and show good evidence that lamellipodin (symbol RAPH1), previously known as a critical regulator of cell migration, stimulates ECM stiffness-mediated cyclin expression and intracellular stiffening in mouse embryonic fibroblasts. We observed that increased ECM stiffness upregulates lamellipodin expression. This is mediated by an integrin-dependent FAK-Cas-Rac signaling module and supports stiffness-mediated lamellipodin induction. Mechanistically, we find that lamellipodin overexpression increased, and lamellipodin knockdown reduced, stiffness-induced cell cyclin expression and cell proliferation, and intracellular stiffness. Overall, these results suggest that lamellipodin levels may be critical for regulating cell proliferation. This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Emerging machine learning approaches to phenotyping cellular motility and morphodynamics.

Cells respond heterogeneously to molecular and environmental perturbations. Phenotypic heterogeneity, wherein multiple phenotypes coexist in the same conditions, presents challenges when interpreting the observed heterogeneity. Advances in live cell microscopy allow researchers to acquire an unprecedented amount of live cell image data at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Phenotyping cellular dynamics, however, is a nontrivial task and requires machine learning (ML) approaches to discern phenotypic heterogeneity from live cell images. In recent years, ML has proven instrumental in biomedical research, allowing scientists to implement sophisticated computation in which computers learn and effectively perform specific analyses with minimal human instruction or intervention. In this review, we discuss how ML has been recently employed in the study of cell motility and morphodynamics to identify phenotypes from computer vision analysis. We focus on new approaches to extract and learn meaningful spatiotemporal features from complex live cell images for cellular and subcellular phenotyping.

Deep transfer learning-based hologram classification for molecular diagnostics.

Lens-free digital in-line holography (LDIH) is a promising microscopic tool that overcomes several drawbacks (e.g., limited field of view) of traditional lens-based microcopy. However, extensive computation is required to reconstruct object images from the complex diffraction patterns produced by LDIH. This limits LDIH utility for point-of-care applications, particularly in resource limited settings. We describe a deep transfer learning (DTL) based approach to process LDIH images in the context of cellular analyses. Specifically, we captured holograms of cells labeled with molecular-specific microbeads and trained neural networks to classify these holograms without reconstruction. Using raw holograms as input, the trained networks were able to classify individual cells according to the number of cell-bound microbeads. The DTL-based approach including a VGG19 pretrained network showed robust performance with experimental data. Combined with the developed DTL approach, LDIH could be realized as a low-cost, portable tool for point-of-care diagnostics.

Deconvolution of subcellular protrusion heterogeneity and the underlying actin regulator dynamics from live cell imaging.

Cell protrusion is morphodynamically heterogeneous at the subcellular level. However, the mechanism of cell protrusion has been understood based on the ensemble average of actin regulator dynamics. Here, we establish a computational framework called HACKS (deconvolution of heterogeneous activity in coordination of cytoskeleton at the subcellular level) to deconvolve the subcellular heterogeneity of lamellipodial protrusion from live cell imaging. HACKS identifies distinct subcellular protrusion phenotypes based on machine-learning algorithms and reveals their underlying actin regulator dynamics at the leading edge. Using our method, we discover "accelerating protrusion", which is driven by the temporally ordered coordination of Arp2/3 and VASP activities. We validate our finding by pharmacological perturbations and further identify the fine regulation of Arp2/3 and VASP recruitment associated with accelerating protrusion. Our study suggests HACKS can identify specific subcellular protrusion phenotypes susceptible to pharmacological perturbation and reveal how actin regulator dynamics are changed by the perturbation.

Functional hierarchy of redundant actin assembly factors revealed by fine-grained registration of intrinsic image fluctuations.

Highly redundant pathways often contain components whose functions are difficult to decipher from the responses induced by genetic or molecular perturbations. Here, we present a statistical approach that samples and registers events observed in images of intrinsic fluctuations in unperturbed cells to establish the functional hierarchy of events in systems with redundant pathways. We apply this approach to study the recruitment of actin assembly factors involved in the protrusion of the cell membrane. We find that the formin mDia1, along with nascent adhesion components, is recruited to the leading edge of the cell before protrusion onset, initiating linear growth of the lamellipodial network. Recruitment of Arp2/3, VASP, cofilin, and the formin mDia2 then promotes sustained exponential growth of the network. Experiments changing membrane tension suggest that Arp2/3 recruitment is mechano-responsive. These results indicate that cells adjust the overlapping contributions of multiple factors to actin filament assembly during protrusion on a ten-second timescale and in response to mechanical cues.

Self-assembly of filopodia-like structures on supported lipid bilayers.

Filopodia are finger-like protrusive structures, containing actin bundles. By incubating frog egg extracts with supported lipid bilayers containing phosphatidylinositol 4,5 bisphosphate, we have reconstituted the assembly of filopodia-like structures (FLSs). The actin assembles into parallel bundles, and known filopodial components localize to the tip and shaft. The filopodia tip complexes self-organize--they are not templated by preexisting membrane microdomains. The F-BAR domain protein toca-1 recruits N-WASP, followed by the Arp2/3 complex and actin. Elongation proteins, Diaphanous-related formin, VASP, and fascin are recruited subsequently. Although the Arp2/3 complex is required for FLS initiation, it is not essential for elongation, which involves formins. We propose that filopodia form via clustering of Arp2/3 complex activators, self-assembly of filopodial tip complexes on the membrane, and outgrowth of actin bundles.

A Stochastic Model of Conductance Transitions in Voltage-Gated IonChannels.

We present a statistical physics model to describe the stochastic behaviorof ion transport and channel transitions under an applied membrane voltage.To get pertinent ideas we apply our general theoretical scheme to ananalytically tractable model of the channel with a deep binding site whichinteracts with the permeant ions electrostatically. It is found that theinteraction is modulated by the average ionic occupancy in the bindingsite, which is enhanced by the membrane voltage increases. Above acritical voltage, the interaction gives rise to a emergence of a newconducting state along with shift of S4 charge residues in the channel.This exploratory study calls for further investigations to correlate thecomplex transition behaviors with a variety of ion channels, withparameters in the model, potential energy parameters, voltage, and ionicconcentration.