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BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Gonorrhoea cases increased steeply in women aged 20 to 24 years across 15 EU/EEA countries in July to December 2022 and January to June 2023 with, respectively, 73% and 89% more cases reported than expected, based on historical data from 2015 to 2019. Smaller increases among men due to heterosexual transmission were observed in nine EU/EEA countries. Interventions to raise awareness among young people about sexually transmitted infection risks are needed, emphasising the benefit of safe sexual practices and testing.
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Gonorrea , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Adolescente , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/epidemiología , Conducta Sexual , HeterosexualidadRESUMEN
Vaccine hesitancy tends to exhibit geographical patterns and is often associated with social deprivation and migrant status. We aimed to estimate COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy in a high-vaccination-acceptance country, Portugal, and determine its association with sociodemographic risk factors. We used the Registry of National Health System Users to determine the eligible population and the Vaccination Registry to determine individuals without COVID-19 vaccine doses. Individuals older than five with no COVID-19 vaccine dose administered by 31 March 2022 were considered hesitant. We calculated hesitancy rates by municipality, gender, and age group for all municipalities in mainland Portugal. We used the spatial statistical scan method to identify spatial clusters and the Besag, Yorke, and Mollié (BYM) model to estimate the effect of age, gender, social deprivation, and migrant proportion across all mainland municipalities. The eligible population was 9,852,283, with 1,212,565 (12%) COVID-19 vaccine-hesitant individuals. We found high-hesitancy spatial clusters in the Lisbon metropolitan area and the country's southwest. Our model showed that municipalities with higher proportions of migrants are associated with an increased relative risk (RR) of vaccine hesitancy (RR = 8.0; CI 95% 4.6; 14.0). Social deprivation and gender were not associated with vaccine hesitancy rates. We found COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has a heterogeneous distribution across Portugal and has a strong association with the proportion of migrants per municipality.
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During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, governments and public health authorities collected massive amounts of data on daily confirmed positive cases and incidence rates. These data sets provide relevant information to develop a scientific understanding of the pandemic's spatiotemporal dynamics. At the same time, there is a lack of comprehensive approaches to describe and classify patterns underlying the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence across regions over time. This seriously constrains the potential benefits for public health authorities to understand spatiotemporal patterns of disease incidence that would allow for better risk communication strategies and improved assessment of mitigation policies efficacy. Within this context, we propose an exploratory statistical tool that combines functional data analysis with unsupervised learning algorithms to extract meaningful information about the main spatiotemporal patterns underlying COVID-19 incidence on mainland Portugal. We focus on the timeframe spanning from August 2020 to March 2022, considering data at the municipality level. First, we describe the temporal evolution of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases by municipality as a function of time, and outline the main temporal patterns of variability using a functional principal component analysis. Then, municipalities are classified according to their spatiotemporal similarities through hierarchical clustering adapted to spatially correlated functional data. Our findings reveal disparities in disease dynamics between northern and coastal municipalities versus those in the southern and hinterland. We also distinguish effects occurring during the 2020-2021 period from those in the 2021-2022 autumn-winter seasons. The results provide proof-of-concept that the proposed approach can be used to detect the main spatiotemporal patterns of disease incidence. The novel approach expands and enhances existing exploratory tools for spatiotemporal analysis of public health data.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Portugal/epidemiología , Incidencia , SARS-CoV-2 , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
Several SARS-CoV-2 variants that evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic have appeared to differ in severity, based on analyses of single-country datasets. With decreased testing and sequencing, international collaborative studies will become increasingly important for timely assessment of the severity of new variants. Therefore, a joint WHO Regional Office for Europe and ECDC working group was formed to produce and pilot a standardised study protocol to estimate relative case-severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants during periods when two variants were co-circulating. The study protocol and its associated statistical analysis code was applied by investigators in Denmark, England, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal and Scotland to assess the severity of cases with the Omicron BA.1 virus variant relative to Delta. After pooling estimates using meta-analysis methods (random effects estimates), the risk of hospital admission (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)â¯=â¯0.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31-0.54), admission to intensive care unit (aHR = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.05-0.27) and death (aHR = 0.31; 95% CI: 0.28-0.35) was lower for Omicron BA.1 compared with Delta cases. The aHRs varied by age group and vaccination status. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the feasibility of conducting variant severity analyses in a multinational collaborative framework and adds evidence for the reduced severity of the Omicron BA.1 variant.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/epidemiología , Pandemias , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Metaanálisis como AsuntoRESUMEN
Little is known about the effects of woody plant encroachment-a recent but pervasive phenomenon-on the hydraulic properties of bedrock substrates. Recent work using stream solute concentrations paired with weathering models suggests that woody plant encroachment accelerates limestone weathering. In this field study, we evaluate this hypothesis by examining bedrock in the Edwards Plateau, an extensive karst landscape in Central Texas. We compared a site that has been heavily encroached by woody plants (mainly Quercus fusiformis and Juniperus ashei), with an adjacent site that has been maintained free of encroachment for the past eight decades. Both sites share the same bedrock, as confirmed by trenching, and originally had very few trees, which enabled us to evaluate how encroachment impacted the evolution of hydraulic properties over a period of no more than 80 years. Using in situ permeability tests in boreholes drilled into the weathered bedrock, we found that the mean saturated hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher-by an order of magnitude-beneath woody plants than in the areas where woody plants have been continuously suppressed. Additionally, woody plant encroachment was associated with greater regolith thickness, greater plant rooting depths, significantly lower rock hardness, and a 24-44% increase in limestone matrix porosity. These findings are strong indicators that woody plant encroachment enhances bedrock weathering, thereby amplifying its permeability-a cycle of mutual reinforcement with the potential for substantial changes within a few decades. Given the importance of shallow bedrock for ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes, the broader impacts of woody plant encroachment on weathering rates and permeability warrant further investigation.
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Carbonato de Calcio , Carbonatos , Permeabilidad , Madera , ÁrbolesRESUMEN
On 5 April 2022, the United Kingdom reported an increase of cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology in children, several needing hospitalisation and some required liver transplant or died. Thereafter, 35 countries reported probable cases, almost half of them in Europe. Facing the alert, on 28 April, Portugal created a multidisciplinary Task Force (TF) for rapid detection of probable cases and response. The experts of the TF came from various disciplines: clinicians, laboratory experts, epidemiologists, public health experts and national and international communication. Moreover, Portugal adopted the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition and recommendations. By 31 December 2022, 28 probable cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology were reported: 16 male and 17 aged under 2â¯years. Of these cases, 23 were hospitalised but none required liver transplant or died. Adenovirus was detected from nine of 26 tested cases. No association was observed between adenovirus infection and hospital admission after adjusting for age, sex and region in a binomial regression model. The TF in Portugal may have contributed to increase awareness among clinicians, enabling early detection and prompt management of the outbreak.
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Hepatitis , Trasplante de Hígado , Niño , Humanos , Masculino , Anciano , Portugal/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Europa (Continente) , Enfermedad AgudaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Sisal is a common stiff fibre produced around the world, corresponding to approximately 70% of the commercial production of all fibres of this type. The fibres are extracted from the leaves of Agave sisalana, from which approximately 4% of their weight is obtained, with the remaining 96% considered to be residues from the process of the sisal industry. The objective of this work was to obtain a polyphenol-enriched extract from the A. sisalana residue by ultrasonically assisted extraction, characterize it chemically, evaluate in vitro antioxidant activity, and develop safe and stable photoprotective formulations for future application in cosmetic preparations. METHODS: Ultrasonic extraction of solid plant material was performed using 50% ethanol/water (v/v). The extract was chemically characterized by high-performance liquid chromatography equipment associated with classical molecular networking and evaluated for in vitro antioxidant activity by different methodologies. Ten formulations were prepared, varying the component concentrations and the shear time. The 1.0% sisal extract was incorporated into the most stable formulations, and preliminary and accelerated stability were evaluated. The emulsions were investigated for safety by assessment of primary accumulated dermal irritability and sensitization and a dermatological clinical study of phototoxicity and photosensitization. The photoprotective formulations containing or not containing the extract that were stable after 90 days had their in vivo sun protection factor (SPF), UVA protection factor, critical wavelength, and protection against visible and blue light determined. RESULTS: Ultrasound extraction using 50% ethanol/water (EH 50) as an extractor vehicle showed the best yield. The extract exhibited a concentration of phenolic compounds (77.93 mg of equivalent to the standard gallic acid/g) and showed in vitro antioxidant activity. Emulsions without and with 1.0% sisal extract remained stable and safe. The addition of the extract to the photoprotective formulation statistically increased the SPF when compared to the formulation without the extract and offered protection against UVA radiation, critical wavelengths, and absorption of visible and blue light. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings, the solid residue of A. sisalana may be indicated as a component of photoprotective and antioxidant cosmetic formulations.
OBJECTIF: Le sisal est une fibre rigide courante produite dans le monde entier, correspondant à environ 70 % de la production commerciale de toutes les fibres de ce type. Les fibres sont extraites des feuilles d'Agave sisalana dont environ 4 % du poids est obtenu, les 96 % restants étant considérés comme des résidus du procédé de l'industrie du sisal. L'objectif de ce projet était d'obtenir un extrait du résidu d'A. sisalana enrichi en polyphénols par extraction assistée par ultrasons (EAU), de le caractériser chimiquement, d'évaluer l'activité antioxydante in vitro et de développer des formulations photoprotectrices sûres et stables pour une application future dans des préparations cosmétiques. MÉTHODES: L'extraction ultrasonique de la matière végétale solide a été effectuée avec une solution à 50 % d'éthanol/eau (v/v). L'extrait a été chimiquement caractérisé avec un équipement de chromatographie en phase liquide à haute performance associé à un réseau moléculaire (RM) classique, puis évalué pour l'activité antioxydante in vitro par différentes méthodologies. Dix formulations ont été préparées en variant les concentrations des composants et le temps de cisaillement. L'extrait de sisal à 1,0 % a été incorporé dans les formulations les plus stables et la stabilité préliminaire et accélérée a été évaluée. La sécurité d'emploi des émulsions a été étudiée en évaluant l'irritabilité et la sensibilisation cutanées accumulées primaires et l'étude clinique dermatologique de la phototoxicité et de la photosensibilisation. Le facteur de protection solaire in vivo, le facteur de protection UVA, la longueur d'onde critique et la protection contre la lumière visible et bleue ont été déterminées pour les formulations photoprotectrices contenant ou non l'extrait qui étaient stables après 90 jours. RÉSULTATS: L'extraction par ultrasons utilisant une solution à 50 % d'éthanol/eau (EH 50) comme véhicule d'extraction a menée au meilleur rendement. L'extrait a présenté une concentration de composés phénoliques (77,93 mg d'EAG/g) et une activité antioxydante in vitro. Les émulsions sans et avec 1,0 % d'extrait de sisal sont restées stables et sans danger. L'ajout de l'extrait à la formulation photoprotectrice a statistiquement augmenté le SPF par rapport à la formulation sans extrait et a offert une protection contre les rayonnements UVA, la longueur d'onde critique et l'absorption de la lumière visible et bleue. CONCLUSION: D'après ces résultats, les résidus solides d'A. sisalana peuvent être indiqués comme composant des formulations cosmétiques photoprotectrices et antioxydantes.
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Agave , Cosméticos , Residuos Industriales , Agave/química , Antioxidantes/farmacología , Extractos Vegetales , Etanol , AguaRESUMEN
The alteration in the shape of the femoral neck is an important radiographic sign for scoring canine hip dysplasia (CHD). Previous studies have reported that the femoral neck thickness (FNT) is greater in dogs with hip joint dysplasia, becoming progressively thicker with disease severity. The main objective of this work was to describe a femoral neck thickness index (FNTi) to quantify FNT and to study its association with the degree of CHD using the Fédération Cynologique Internationale (FCI) scheme. A total of 53 dogs (106 hips) were randomly selected for this study. Two examiners performed FNTi estimation to study intra- and inter-examiner reliability and agreement. The paired t-test, the Bland-Altman plots, and the intraclass correlation coefficient showed excellent agreement and reliability between the measurements of the two examiners and the examiners' sessions. All joints were scored in five categories by an experienced examiner according to FCI criteria. The results from examiner 1 were compared between FCI categories. Hips that were assigned an FCI grade of A (n = 19), B (n = 23), C (n = 24), D (n = 24), and E (n = 16) had a mean ± standard deviation FNTi of 0.809 ± 0.024, 0.835 ± 0.044, 0.868 ± 0.022, 0.903 ± 0.033, and 0.923 ± 0.068, respectively (ANOVA, p < 0.05). Therefore, these results show that FNTi is a parameter capable of evaluating proximal femur bone modeling and that it has the potential to enrich conventional CHD scoring criteria if incorporated into a computer-aided diagnosis capable of detecting CHD.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the time interval and possible delay in transportation to referral units for the treatment of testicular torsion. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed all cases of spermatic cord torsion surgically treated at a university hospital between January 2018 to December 2021. We evaluated the time intervals, including pain onset until the first presentation (D1), interhospital transference time (D2), pain onset until urological evaluation in a tertiary service (D3), urological evaluation until surgery (D4), and time from pain onset to surgical treatment (D5). We analyzed demographic and surgical data, orchiectomy rates, and time intervals (D1-D5). Torsions presented to the first medical presentation within 6h were considered early for testicular preservation. RESULTS: Of the 116 medical records evaluated, 87 had complete data for the time interval analysis (D1 to D5) and were considered the total sample. Thirty-three had D1 ≤6h, 53 had D1 ≤24h (includes patients in the D1 ≤6h subgroup), and 34 had D1 >24h. The median time intervals of the total samples and subgroups D1 ≤6h, D1 ≤24h, and D1 >24h were D1 = 16h 42min, 2h 43min, 4h 14min and 72h, D2 = 4h 41min, 3h 39min, 3h 44min and 9h 59min; D3 = 24h, 6h 40min, 7h and 96h; D4 = 2h 20min, 1h 43min, 1h 52min and 3h 44min; D5 = 24h 42min, 8h 03min, 9h 26min and 99h 10min, respectively. Orchiectomy rates of the total sample, subgroups D1 ≤6h, D1 ≤24h, and D1 >24h were 56.32%, 24.24% (p<0.01), 32.08% (p<0.01), and 91.18% (p<0.01), respectively. CONCLUSION: Late arrival at the emergency department or a long interhospital transference time determined a large number of patients who underwent orchiectomy. Thus, public health measures and preventive strategies can be developed based on the data from this study aiming to reduce this avoidable outcome.
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Torsión del Cordón Espermático , Masculino , Humanos , Torsión del Cordón Espermático/cirugía , Estudios Retrospectivos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Hospitales Universitarios , Registros MédicosRESUMEN
Adequate radiographic positioning on the X-ray table is paramount for canine hip dysplasia (HD) screening. The aims of this study were to evaluate femoral parallelism on normal ventrodorsal hip extended (VDHE) view and the effect of femoral angulation (FA) on Norberg Angle (NA) and Hip Congruency Index (HCI). The femoral parallelism was evaluated comparing the alignment of the long femoral axis with the long body axis in normal VDHE views and the effect of FA on NA and HCI on repeated VDHE views with different levels of FA. The femoral long axis in normal VDHE views showed a ranged of FA from -4.85° to 5.85°, mean ± standard deviation (SD) of -0.06 ± 2.41°, 95% CI [-4.88, 4.76°]. In the paired views, the mean ± SD femur adduction of 3.69 ± 1.96° led to a statistically significant decrease NA, and HCI, and femur abduction of 2.89 ± 2.12 led to a statistically significant increase in NA and HCI (p < 0.05). The FA differences were also significantly correlated with both NA differences (r = 0.83) and HCI differences (r = 0.44) (p < 0.001). This work describes a methodology that allows evaluation of femoral parallelism in VDHE views and the results suggest that femur abduction yielded more desirable NA and HCI values and adduction impaired NA and HCI values. The positive linear association of FA with NA and HCI allows the use of regression equations to create corrections, to reduce the influence of poor femoral parallelism in the HD scoring.
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Artificial intelligence and machine learning have been increasingly used in the medical imaging field in the past few years. The evaluation of medical images is very subjective and complex, and therefore the application of artificial intelligence and deep learning methods to automatize the analysis process would be very beneficial. A lot of researchers have been applying these methods to image analysis diagnosis, developing software capable of assisting veterinary doctors or radiologists in their daily practice. This article details the main methodologies used to develop software applications on machine learning and how veterinarians with an interest in this field can benefit from such methodologies. The main goal of this study is to offer veterinary professionals a simple guide to enable them to understand the basics of artificial intelligence and machine learning and the concepts such as deep learning, convolutional neural networks, transfer learning, and the performance evaluation method. The language is adapted for medical technicians, and the work already published in this field is reviewed for application in the imaging diagnosis of different animal body systems: musculoskeletal, thoracic, nervous, and abdominal.
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OBJECTIVES: Healthcare workers (HCWs) were the first to be prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to estimate the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection among HCWs in Portuguese hospitals. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analysed data from HCWs (all professional categories) from three central hospitals: one in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and two in the central region of mainland Portugal, between December 2020 and March 2022. VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated as one minus the confounder adjusted HRs by Cox models considering age group, sex, self-reported chronic disease and occupational exposure to patients diagnosed with COVID-19 as adjustment variables. RESULTS: During the 15 months of follow-up, the 3034 HCWs contributed a total of 3054 person-years at risk, and 581 SARS-CoV-2 events occurred. Most participants were already vaccinated with a booster dose (n=2653, 87%), some are vaccinated with only the primary scheme (n=369, 12.6%) and a few remained unvaccinated (n=12, 0.4%) at the end of the study period. VE against symptomatic infection was 63.6% (95% CI 22.6% to 82.9%) for HCWs vaccinated with two doses and 55.9% (95% CI -1.3% to 80.8%) for HCWs vaccinated with one booster dose. Point estimate VE was higher for individuals with two doses taken between 14 days and 98 days (VE=71.9%; 95% CI 32.3% to 88.3%). CONCLUSION: This cohort study found a high COVID-19 VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in Portuguese HCWs after vaccination with one booster dose, even after Omicron variant occurrence. The small sample size, the high vaccine coverage, the very low number of unvaccinated individuals and the few events observed during the study period contributed to the low precision of the estimates.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Prospectivos , Eficacia de las Vacunas , SARS-CoV-2 , Personal de Salud , HospitalesRESUMEN
Background: Information on vaccine effectiveness in a context of novel variants of concern (VOC) emergence is of key importance to inform public health policies. This study aimed to estimate a measure of comparative vaccine effectiveness between Omicron (BA.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2 and sub-lineages) VOC according to vaccination exposure (primary or booster). Methods: We developed a case-case study using data on RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2-positive cases notified in Portugal during Weeks 49-51, 2021. To obtain measure of comparative vaccine effectiveness, we compared the odds of vaccination in Omicron cases versus Delta using logistic regression adjusted for age group, sex, region, week of diagnosis, and laboratory of origin. Results: Higher odds of vaccination were observed in cases infected by Omicron VOC compared with Delta VOC cases for both complete primary vaccination (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8 to 2.4) and booster dose (OR = 5.2; 95% CI: 3.1 to 8.8), equivalent to reduction of vaccine effectiveness from 44.7% and 92.8%, observed against infection with Delta, to -6.0% (95% CI: 29.2% to 12.7%) and 62.7% (95% CI: 35.7% to 77.9%), observed against infection with Omicron, for complete primary vaccination and booster dose, respectively. Conclusion: Consistent reduction in vaccine-induced protection against infection with Omicron was observed. Complete primary vaccination may not be protective against SARS-CoV-2 infection in regions where Omicron variant is dominant.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Registros Electrónicos de SaludRESUMEN
We estimated comparative primary and booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 and BA.2 lineages against infection and disease progression. During April-June 2022, we implemented a case-case and cohort study and classified lineages using whole-genome sequencing or spike gene target failure. For the case-case study, we estimated the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of vaccination using a logistic regression. For the cohort study, we estimated VE against disease progression using a penalized logistic regression. We observed no reduced VE for primary (aOR 1.07 [95% CI 0.93-1.23]) or booster (aOR 0.96 [95% CI 0.84-1.09]) vaccination against BA.5 infection. Among BA.5 case-patients, booster VE against progression to hospitalization was lower than that among BA.2 case-patients (VE 77% [95% CI 49%-90%] vs. VE 93% [95% CI 86%-97%]). Although booster vaccination is less effective against BA.5 than against BA.2, it offers substantial protection against progression from BA.5 infection to severe disease.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , Portugal , Estudios de Cohortes , SARS-CoV-2 , Progresión de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) are an unsupervised learning clustering and dimensionality reduction algorithm capable of mapping an initial complex high-dimensional data set into a low-dimensional domain, such as a two-dimensional grid of neurons. In the reduced space, the original complex patterns and their interactions can be better visualized, interpreted and understood. METHODS: We use SOM to simultaneously couple the spatial and temporal domains of the COVID-19 evolution in the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal during the first year of the pandemic. Temporal 14-days cumulative incidence time series along with socio-economic and demographic indicators per municipality were analyzed with SOM to identify regions of the country with similar behavior and infer the possible common origins of the incidence evolution. RESULTS: The results show how neighbor municipalities tend to share a similar behavior of the disease, revealing the strong spatiotemporal relationship of the COVID-19 spreading beyond the administrative borders of each municipality. Additionally, we demonstrate how local socio-economic and demographic characteristics evolved as determinants of COVID-19 transmission, during the 1st wave school density per municipality was more relevant, where during 2nd wave jobs in the secondary sector and the deprivation score were more relevant. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that SOM can be an effective tool to analysing the spatiotemporal behavior of COVID-19 and synthetize the history of the disease in mainland Portugal during the period in analysis. While SOM have been applied to diverse scientific fields, the application of SOM to study the spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 is still limited. This work illustrates how SOM can be used to describe the spatiotemporal behavior of epidemic events. While the example shown herein uses 14-days cumulative incidence curves, the same analysis can be performed using other relevant data such as mortality data, vaccination rates or even infection rates of other disease of infectious nature.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Portugal/epidemiología , Algoritmos , Pandemias , Análisis por Conglomerados , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2021, the European Union reported >270,000 excess deaths, including >16,000 in Portugal. The Portuguese Directorate-General of Health developed a deep neural network, AUTOCOD, which determines the primary causes of death by analyzing the free text of physicians' death certificates (DCs). Although AUTOCOD's performance has been established, it remains unclear whether its performance remains consistent over time, particularly during periods of excess mortality. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the sensitivity and other performance metrics of AUTOCOD in classifying underlying causes of death compared with manual coding to identify specific causes of death during periods of excess mortality. METHODS: We included all DCs between 2016 and 2019. AUTOCOD's performance was evaluated by calculating various performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and F1-score, using a confusion matrix. This compared International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health-Related Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10), classifications of DCs by AUTOCOD with those by human coders at the Directorate-General of Health (gold standard). Subsequently, we compared periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. We defined excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score above the 95% baseline limit, severe excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >4 SDs, and extreme excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >6 SDs. Finally, we repeated the analyses for the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters focusing on block-level classification. RESULTS: We analyzed a large data set comprising 330,098 DCs classified by both human coders and AUTOCOD. AUTOCOD demonstrated high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 10 ICD-10 chapters examined, with values surpassing 0.90 for the more prevalent chapters (chapter II-"Neoplasms," chapter IX-"Diseases of the circulatory system," and chapter X-"Diseases of the respiratory system"), accounting for 67.69% (223,459/330,098) of all human-coded causes of death. No substantial differences were observed in these high-sensitivity values when comparing periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. The same holds for specificity, which exceeded 0.96 for all chapters examined, and for PPV, which surpassed 0.75 in 9 chapters, including the more prevalent ones. When considering block classification within the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters, AUTOCOD maintained a high performance, demonstrating high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 13 ICD-10 blocks, high PPV for 9 blocks, and specificity of >0.98 in all blocks, with no significant differences between periods without excess mortality and those with excess mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that, during periods of excess and extreme excess mortality, AUTOCOD's performance remains unaffected by potential text quality degradation because of pressure on health services. Consequently, AUTOCOD can be dependably used for real-time cause-specific mortality surveillance even in extreme excess mortality situations.
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ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate the time interval and possible delay in transportation to referral units for the treatment of testicular torsion. Methods We retrospectively analyzed all cases of spermatic cord torsion surgically treated at a university hospital between January 2018 to December 2021. We evaluated the time intervals, including pain onset until the first presentation (D1), interhospital transference time (D2), pain onset until urological evaluation in a tertiary service (D3), urological evaluation until surgery (D4), and time from pain onset to surgical treatment (D5). We analyzed demographic and surgical data, orchiectomy rates, and time intervals (D1-D5). Torsions presented to the first medical presentation within 6h were considered early for testicular preservation. Results Of the 116 medical records evaluated, 87 had complete data for the time interval analysis (D1 to D5) and were considered the total sample. Thirty-three had D1 ≤6h, 53 had D1 ≤24h (includes patients in the D1 ≤6h subgroup), and 34 had D1 >24h. The median time intervals of the total samples and subgroups D1 ≤6h, D1 ≤24h, and D1 >24h were D1 = 16h 42min, 2h 43min, 4h 14min and 72h, D2 = 4h 41min, 3h 39min, 3h 44min and 9h 59min; D3 = 24h, 6h 40min, 7h and 96h; D4 = 2h 20min, 1h 43min, 1h 52min and 3h 44min; D5 = 24h 42min, 8h 03min, 9h 26min and 99h 10min, respectively. Orchiectomy rates of the total sample, subgroups D1 ≤6h, D1 ≤24h, and D1 >24h were 56.32%, 24.24% (p<0.01), 32.08% (p<0.01), and 91.18% (p<0.01), respectively. Conclusion Late arrival at the emergency department or a long interhospital transference time determined a large number of patients who underwent orchiectomy. Thus, public health measures and preventive strategies can be developed based on the data from this study aiming to reduce this avoidable outcome.
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BACKGROUND: Using data from electronic health registries, this study intended to estimate the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the population aged 65 years and more, against symptomatic infection, COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and deaths, overall and by time since complete vaccination for the period February to September 2021. METHODS: We established a cohort of individuals aged 65 and more years old, resident in Portugal mainland, using the National Health Service User number to link eight electronic health registries. Outcomes included were symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths. The exposures of interest were the mRNA vaccines (Comirnaty or Spikevax) and the viral vector (Vaxzevria) vaccine. Complete schedule VE was estimated as one minus the confounder adjusted hazard ratio, for each outcome, estimated by time-dependent Cox regression with time-dependent vaccine exposure. RESULTS: For the cohort of individuals aged 65-79 years, complete scheme VE against symptomatic infection varied 43 (95%CI: 37-49) (Vaxzevria) and 65 (95%CI: 62-68) (mRNA vaccines). This estimate was slightly lower in the ≥80 years cohort (53, 95%CI: 45-60) for mRNA vaccines). VE against COVID-19 hospitalization varied between 89% (95%CI: 52-94) for Vaxzevria and 95% (95%CI: 93-97) for mRNA vaccines for the cohort aged 65-79 years and was 76% (95%CI: 67-83) for mRNA vaccines in the ≥80 years cohort. High VE against COVID-19-related deaths was estimated, for both vaccine types, 95% and 81 (95%CI:76-86) for the 65-79 years and the ≥80 years cohort, respectively. We observed a significant waning of VE against symptomatic infection, with VE estimates reaching approximately 34% for both vaccine types and cohorts. Significant waning was observed for the COVID-19 hospitalizations in the ≥80 years cohort (decay from 83% (95%CI:68 to 91) 14-41 days to 63% (95%CI:37 to 78) 124 days after mRNA second dose). No significant waning effect was observed for COVID-19-related deaths in the period of follow-up of either cohort. CONCLUSIONS: In a population with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 complications, we observed higher overall VE estimates against more severe outcomes for both age cohorts when compared to symptomatic infections. Considering the analysis of VE according to time since complete vaccination, the results showed a waning effect for both age cohorts in symptomatic infection and COVID-19 hospitalization for the 80 and more years cohort.