RESUMEN
A person-centred approach was used to examine whether children with various actual and perceived motor competence (AMC and PMC) profiles differ in (enjoyment of) physical fitness (PF). The strength of the relationship between AMC and PMC was also assessed through aligned assessment tools. A sample of 287 7-11-year-old children (47.40% boys, Mage = 8.92 ± .78 years) was assessed on AMC with the KörperkoordinationsTest für Kinder (KTK3), and on PF with six validated fitness tests. Animated videos fully aligned with the AMC- and PF-tests were used to assess children's PMC and enjoyment of PF, respectively. Cluster analyses identified one convergent (i.e. high AMC-high PMC) and three partially convergent AMC-PMC profiles (i.e. low AMC-high PMC). Furthermore, children with relatively high AMC (i.e. high-average profile) reported higher PF (F = 30.99, p < .001), while children with relatively high PMC (i.e. average-high profile) reported higher enjoyment of PF (F = 9.02, p < .001). The correlation between AMC and PMC was significant but weak (r = .16). Overall, it seems important to invest in both children's AMC and PMC as they may support a higher (enjoyment of) PF, potentially leading to higher PA-levels.
When it comes to physical fitness, actual motor competence rather than perceived motor competence seemed to play the biggest role. As extra high perceived motor competence did not add additional benefits in terms of physical fitness, there might have been a ceiling effect of perceived motor competence.When looking at enjoyment of physical fitness, perceived motor competence seemed to be a more important factor than actual motor competence. However, profile analyses revealed that a relatively high perceived motor competence score may not fully compensate the loss of enjoyment in physical fitness when children's actual motor competence is relatively low.
Asunto(s)
Destreza Motora , Aptitud Física , Placer , Humanos , Masculino , Niño , Destreza Motora/fisiología , Aptitud Física/fisiología , Femenino , Prueba de Esfuerzo/métodos , Percepción/fisiologíaRESUMEN
Objectives: The relationship between task constraints and player behaviors is of interest to coaches tasked with designing practice to optimize learning. This study aims to compare the skill involvements and cooperative team behavior of teams of youth soccer players engaged in a goal exaggeration and/or a prescriptive coach instruction condition compared to a free-play control condition. Methods: Twenty male soccer players aged 12-15 participated in small-sided games under four conditions: free-play, goal exaggeration, prescriptive coach instruction, and combination over four weeks. Using video footage, teams' collective skill involvements (shot, pass, dribble) and passing network characteristics (closeness, density, and betweenness) were measured for each game. Results: A Friedmans rank test identified that playing conditions resulted in significant differences in attempted dribbles (p < .001), goals scored (p < .001), network density (p = .001), closeness (p < .001) and betweenness (p = .002). Teams attempted to dribble the most in the free-play and goal-exaggeration conditions, and the most goals were scored in the goal-exaggeration and combination conditions. Additionally, teams exhibited more well-connected passing networks (i.e. higher density, higher closeness, and lower betweenness values) in the combination condition and higher network density in the explicit instruction condition. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that coach instruction may be more associated with cooperative team behavior, whereas free-play or manipulating task constraints in the absence of instruction may be associated with players attempting more individual actions.
RESUMEN
There is some, albeit inconsistent, evidence supporting sex differences in preschoolers' motor competence (MC), with these observations not uniform when analyzed by age, and cultural groups. Thus, this study examined sex differences across ages in 3- to 5-year-old children's MC. A cross-country pooled sample of 6241 children aged 3-5 years (49.6% girls) was assessed for MC using the Test of Gross Motor Development-2nd/3rd edition, and children were categorized into groups of age in months. Multiple linear regression models and predictive margins were calculated to explore how sex and age in months affect scores of MC (i.e., locomotor and ball skills), with adjustments for country and BMI. The Chow's Test was used to test for the presence of a structural break in the data. Significant differences in favor of girls were seen at 57-59 and 66-68 months of age for locomotor skills; boys performed better in ball skills in all age periods, except for 42-44 and 45-47 months of age. The higher marginal effects were observed for the period between 45-47 and 48-50 months for locomotor skills (F = 30.21; and F = 25.90 for girls and boys, respectively), and ball skills (F = 19.01; and F = 42.11 for girls and boys, respectively). A significantly positive break point was seen at 45-47 months, highlighting the age interval where children's MC drastically improved. The identification of this breakpoint provides an evidence-based metric for when we might expect MC to rapidly increase, and an indicator of early delay when change does not occur at that age.
Asunto(s)
Destreza Motora , Humanos , Destreza Motora/fisiología , Femenino , Masculino , Preescolar , Estudios Transversales , Factores Sexuales , Factores de Edad , Desarrollo Infantil/fisiología , Modelos LinealesRESUMEN
This study aimed to explore the perceptual-cognitive characteristics of coaches as they assessed team performance in youth soccer. The primary focus was to investigate the alignment between coaches' subjective analyses of team behaviour and objective analyses, while also examining the relationship between coaches' gaze behaviour and their levels of coaching experience, particularly considering the potential differences that may exist among coaches with varying levels of experience. Sixty-five male and female adults with various soccer coaching experience (experienced, novice, other team sport experience, and non-team sport experience) watched five 4-minute videos and assessed team behaviour. These subjective evaluations were compared to objective data obtained from video analysis and GPS, which included measures of completed skills, spatiotemporal characteristics, and passing networks. The participants' fixation duration and frequency were measured for each video clip, and the area around the ball specifically. The study found no significant differences between groups regarding the number of times participants' subjective analysis aligned with the objective data (p = 0.059, ɳ2 = 0.07). However, coaches with soccer coaching experience demonstrated a higher fixation frequency and more revisits to the ball area when compared to participants without soccer experience (p = <.001, ɳ2 = 0.09). The current study offers a unique approach to uncovering soccer coaching expertise by combining objective and subjective evaluations of team performance. In summary, the study reveals that coaching experience did not impact how often coaches subjective analyses matched objective data. However, soccer coaches had distinctive gaze behaviour patterns where they revisited the area around the ball more often.
Coaches' perceptions of collective behaviour in soccer teams do not align with objective data, regardless of their level of coaching experience.Gaze behaviour differs between coaches with varying expertise levels.Both experienced and novice coaches visually revisit the area around the ball more often than non-coaches when assessing team performance.Quantitative data may provide an additional level of team analysis than subjective coach assessment alone.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: One in five preschool children are overweight/obese, and increased weight status over time increases the risks of poorer future health. Motor skill competence may be a protective factor, giving children the ability to participate in health-enhancing physical activity. Yet, we do not know when the relationship between motor competence and weight status first emerges or whether it is evident across the body mass index (BMI) spectrum. This study examined the association between motor skill competence and BMI in a multi-country sample of 5545 preschoolers (54.36 ± 9.15 months of age; 50.5% boys) from eight countries. METHODS: Quantile regression analyses were used to explore the associations between motor skill competence (assessed using the Test of Gross Motor Development, Second/Third Edition) and quantiles of BMI (15th; 50th; 85th; and 97th percentiles), adjusted for sex, age in months, and country. RESULTS: Negative associations of locomotor skills, ball skills, and overall motor skill competence with BMI percentiles (p < 0.005) were seen, which became stronger at the higher end of the BMI distribution (97th percentile). Regardless of sex, for each raw score point increase in locomotor skills, ball skills, and overall motor skill competence scores, BMI is reduced by 8.9%, 6.8%, and 5.1%, respectively, for those preschoolers at the 97th BMI percentile onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Public health policies should position motor skill competence as critical for children's obesity prevention from early childhood onwards. Robust longitudinal and experimental designs are encouraged to explore a possible causal pathway between motor skill competence and BMI from early childhood.
Asunto(s)
Ejercicio Físico , Destreza Motora , Masculino , Humanos , Preescolar , Femenino , Índice de Masa Corporal , Estudios Transversales , ObesidadRESUMEN
Well-designed talent programmes in sports with a focus on talent identification, orientation, development, and transfer support the engagement of young individuals and the pursuit of elite performance. To facilitate these processes, an analysis of task, environmental and individual characteristics per sport is much needed. The aims of this study were to 1) analyse whether unique profiles per sport could be established by generic characteristics and 2) to discuss similarities and differences for the potential application in talent development and transfer. By means of a validated survey, 1247 coaches from 34 sports ranked 18 characteristics on importance to their sports (0 = not important - 10 = very important). To discriminate the responses per sport a Discriminant Analysis (DA) was carried out. To refine the DA-classification, Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) with CatBoost classifier was performed. To test the performance of the CatBoost classifier-algorithm, a confusion-matrix was generated. The cross-validated DA showed that 70.2% of the coaches were correctly classified to their sport. The UMAP/CatBoost technique revealed 75.1% accuracy with correctly predicted responses per sport ranging from 18.2% (sailing) to 98.2% (soccer). With varying precision, the algorithm was able to differentiate sports by importance of its characteristics indicating similarities and differences per sport.
RESUMEN
A good set of cognitive and psycho-behavioural skills are beneficial for young athletes to overcome and benefit from developmental challenges. Unfortunately, there is still a dearth of knowledge on how both these cognitive (i.e., executive functions; EF) and psycho-behavioural (i.e., psychological characteristics of developing excellence; PCDE) skills develop in youth athletes. Especially for athletes in early specialisation sports such as artistic gymnastics, the early EF and PCDE development might be important to be able to cope with the pressure and challenges that comes with a transition to the next stage. In the current study, artistic gymnasts between 9 and 22 years old were tested twice with a 12-month interval to investigate the changes in EF and PCDE. Results showed that EF developed within the youngest stage, but plateaued at the later stages. Most PCDE did not seem to change over time within each stage. Furthermore, the transition to a new stage does not seem to coincide with an increased improvement of PCDE. However, with a case study approach in the oldest stages, still inter-individual differences in EF and PCDE scores over time were observed. This study shows that EF and PCDE develop over time, albeit in a non-linear way, and along a variety of developmental trajectories.
Asunto(s)
Atletas , Gimnasia , Adolescente , Humanos , Niño , Adulto Joven , Adulto , Estudios de Seguimiento , CogniciónRESUMEN
Psycho-behavioural skills play a key role in optimising progression through talent development, and this study investigated to what extent athlete's self-perceptions align with those of their coaches and parents. Firstly, we examined if levels of alignment between these three raters differ across age of the athlete. To this end, 122 athletes between 9 and 18 years old (12.17 ± 2.41 years old; 47 gymnasts, 13 cyclists and 62 badminton players) completed a psycho-behavioural questionnaire. The ANOVA's indicated low levels of correspondence between the ratings of the athlete, the coach and the parents during childhood, while better levels of shared perceptions were found in adolescence. Secondly, we investigated to what extent coaches and parents believed their own perception of the athlete's and the perception of the athlete's psycho-behavioural skills were accurate. Parents appeared to be more confident in accurately perceiving the psycho-behavioural skills of the athlete than coaches. Parents and coaches also believed that older athletes would be more honest on their psycho-behavioural shortcomings than younger athletes. Altogether, these findings highlight that athletes and other stakeholders in the talent development environment should strive for better alignment in perceptions on psycho-behavioural skills during the talent development pathway. With better integrated perceptions, a more functional and efficient talent development system for the athlete targeting the psycho-behavioural skills can be created.
Asunto(s)
Padres , Deportes de Raqueta , Adolescente , Humanos , Niño , Atletas , Proteínas del Tejido Nervioso , InvestigadoresRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: (1) To develop reference values for health-related fitness in European children and adolescents aged 6-18 years that are the foundation for the web-based, open-access and multilanguage fitness platform (FitBack); (2) to provide comparisons across European countries. METHODS: This study builds on a previous large fitness reference study in European youth by (1) widening the age demographic, (2) identifying the most recent and representative country-level data and (3) including national data from existing fitness surveillance and monitoring systems. We used the Assessing Levels of PHysical Activity and fitness at population level (ALPHA) test battery as it comprises tests with the highest test-retest reliability, criterion/construct validity and health-related predictive validity: the 20 m shuttle run (cardiorespiratory fitness); handgrip strength and standing long jump (muscular strength); and body height, body mass, body mass index and waist circumference (anthropometry). Percentile values were obtained using the generalised additive models for location, scale and shape method. RESULTS: A total of 7 966 693 test results from 34 countries (106 datasets) were used to develop sex-specific and age-specific percentile values. In addition, country-level rankings based on mean percentiles are provided for each fitness test, as well as an overall fitness ranking. Finally, an interactive fitness platform, including individual and group reporting and European fitness maps, is provided and freely available online (www.fitbackeurope.eu). CONCLUSION: This study discusses the major implications of fitness assessment in youth from health, educational and sport perspectives, and how the FitBack reference values and interactive web-based platform contribute to it. Fitness testing can be conducted in school and/or sport settings, and the interpreted results be integrated in the healthcare systems across Europe.
Asunto(s)
Fuerza de la Mano , Aptitud Física , Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Adolescente , Niño , Valores de Referencia , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Ejercicio Físico , Prueba de Esfuerzo/métodos , Índice de Masa CorporalRESUMEN
PURPOSE: To evaluate the predictive value of a (non-)sport-specific test battery on the future success of young cyclists, test scores were compared with competition performances 2-3 years later. METHODS: Three motor coordination, 5 physical performance, and 2 cycling-specific measurements were collected in 111 U15 (13.0-14.9 y) and 67 U17 (15.0-16.9 y) male road cyclists. In addition, maturity status, relative age, and competition history were assessed. National and provincial competition results 2-3 years later, in the U17year2 and U19year2 categories, were submitted to 2 separate 4-stage hierarchical regressions. RESULTS: The results of the model of the U15 group revealed that maturity, relative age, competition history, motor coordination, physical performance, and cycling-specific performance accounted for 22.6% of the variance in competitive success. For the U15 category, only maturity and motor coordination were significant predictors of competitive success in the U17year2 category. Maturity and motor coordination each uniquely explained ±5% of the variance. However, for the U17 group-neither motor coordination, physical performance, nor cycling-specific performance could predict competitive success in the U19year2 category. CONCLUSIONS: The current study underlines the importance of general motor coordination as a building block necessary for optimal development in youth cycling. However, considering the lack of predictive value from the U17 category onward, other features may determine further development of youth athletes. Nevertheless, it is questioned why athletes need to possess a minimum level of all physical, motor coordination, and cycling-specific characteristics to experience success and enjoyment in their sport.
Asunto(s)
Rendimiento Atlético , Logro , Adolescente , Atletas , Ciclismo , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMEN
In this paper, we explore the use of the Static Qualitative Trajectory Calculus (QTCS), a qualitative spatiotemporal method based on the QTC, for the analysis of team formations in football. While methods for team formation analysis in sports are predominantly quantitative in nature, QTCS enables the comparison of team formations by describing the relative positions between players in a qualitative manner, which is more related to the way players position themselves on the field. QTCS has the potential to allow to monitor to what extent a football team plays according to a coach's predetermined formation. When applied to multiple matches of one team, the method can contribute to the definition of the playing style of a team. We present an experiment aimed at identifying the team formation played by Belgian national football team during the 2018 FIFA World Cup held in France.
RESUMEN
In sports, studies on visual behavior have mostly focused on expert-novice differences during decision making tasks and during aiming tasks. How visual behavior changes during the early stages of skill acquisition however, has hardly been documented. The current study investigated gaze behavior of young soccer players during the execution of a soccer passing task. Gaze behavior of eleven 8- to 10-year-old soccer players was recorded while they performed the Loughborough Soccer Passing Test. Based on their score, participants were then divided into a high performance group (N=5), and a low performance group (N=6). Results showed that the low performance group tended to look more at the ball while they were handling it. These findings suggest that gaze strategies develop alongside technical skills. More insights in the interplay between technical skills and gaze strategies during skill acquisition could lead to improved training methods for young soccer players.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: An expert/non-expert paradigm often helps understand the underpinnings of sports expertise; however, this method is scarcely extended to the complexities of collective behaviour in youth soccer. AIM: Therefore, the objectives of the current study are to investigate differences in the collective behaviour of youth soccer teams by expertise level. METHODOLOGY: Soccer players aged 15 to 20 years from high (n = 35) and low (n = 40) playing levels competed in two age-matched 5v5 small-sided games. For each game, teams' skill involvement (shot, pass, dribble, touch), passing networks (closeness, density, betweenness), and spatiotemporal characteristics (stretch index, effective area, length (L) & width (W), LpW ratio, synchrony) were measured using video footage and GPS coordinates. RESULTS: High level teams had more attempted (p = .009), and completed skills (p = .003), particularly for the number of passes (p = .001) and shots (p = .012-.045). However, there were no significant between-group differences for either the passing networks or spatiotemporal characteristics. CONCLUSION: The findings from the current research suggest that the high-level teams can quickly and effectively move the ball within existing team structures and may better optimise their afforded space to execute desired skills when compared to the low-level teams.
Asunto(s)
Rendimiento Atlético , Fútbol , Adolescente , Humanos , Reuniones Masivas , Proyectos de InvestigaciónRESUMEN
The aim of the study was to identify benchmarks for anthropometric, physical performance, motor coordination, and psychological characteristics by comparing youth badminton players of different levels through the use of a multifactorial test battery. Sixty-one male participants aged 12-18 years were divided into three groups: elite (N = 10), sub-elite (N = 24), and novice (N = 27). Standard test batteries for anthropometry (including measures to estimate biological maturity), physical performance, and motor coordination were applied, as well as the modified PCDEQ2 questionnaire for psychological characteristics of youth athletes (Hill, 2016). Multivariate analyses of covariance (MANCOVAs) with age and biological maturity as covariates were used to investigate differences between skill levels. A discriminant analysis was used to reveal to what extent participants could be correctly assigned to their skill group. Significant differences were found in physical performance (explosive power, flexibility, speed, and endurance), BMI and motor coordination. In the psychological domain, perfectionism was found to be significantly different and elites scored highest. The discriminant analysis showed that 100% of the participants were correctly classified and 80.0% were correctly cross validated. These results significantly add to the previously limited youth players' reference values, and confirm the value of a generic, i.e. without sport-specific testing, multifactorial approach to talent identification in youth badminton.
RESUMEN
Whereas it has been shown that listening to music impairs the detection of auditory and visual signals, it is unclear to what extent music affects a cyclist's ability to detect and interpret hazardous traffic situations. In the current experiment, thirty-seven participants carried out a hazard perception test for cyclists. Participants were divided into three groups: control, passive, or active. The control group did the test without hearing music. The passive and active group did hear music, yet the passive group was asked to ignore the music, while the active group was asked to pay attention to the lyrics. Results showed no differences in reaction rate, reaction time, or gaze behaviour between any of the groups. These findings temper the existing safety concerns about the negative effect of music on traffic safety. Nevertheless, music might still have consequences under certain conditions or in certain risk-groups such as children. Practitioner summary: It is unclear how music affects traffic safety. The current experiment tested to what extent hazard perception was affected by listening actively or passively to music. Under the current experimental conditions, listening to music was found to have no effect on hazard perception. Abbreviation: NHTSA: national highway traffic safety administration; AOI: area of interest; TTFS: time to first saccade; FFD: first fixation duration.
Asunto(s)
Música , Percepción Auditiva , Niño , Humanos , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Purpose: The present study examined whether groups of children with different physical fitness and fitness enjoyment profiles could be identified and, if so, whether the different groups varied from one another in terms of organized sports participation. Method: Five hundred and fifty-eight 8-11-year-olds (56.99% boys) participated in this cross-sectional study. Physical fitness and fitness enjoyment were assessed with seven items from a standardized test battery and a pictorial scale containing pictures referring to the enjoyment in those seven physical fitness tests, respectively. To examine whether groups with different fitness and enjoyment profiles could be identified, we conducted cluster analyses based on children's standardized physical fitness and fitness enjoyment scores. A two-way ANCOVA (sex*cluster) was conducted to investigate differences in weekly organized sports participation among each of the identified groups while controlling for age. Results: Cluster analyses revealed two groups with aligned levels of physical fitness and fitness enjoyment (i.e., relatively low-low and relatively high-high) and two groups with unaligned levels (i.e., relatively low-moderate and relatively high-moderate), respectively. Both groups with relatively high fitness scores were found to spend significantly more time in organized sports (M = 2.01 h and 2.29 h, respectively) than the two groups with relatively low fitness scores (M = 1.08 h and 0.98 h, respectively), irrespective of their enjoyment levels. Conclusion: Increasing physical fitness levels (especially among those children with suboptimal enjoyment levels) may lead to increased organized sports participation, while increased organized sports participation in its turn may lead to higher fitness levels. As such, participation in sports programs should be promoted in children of all age groups.
Asunto(s)
Placer , Deportes , Niño , Estudios Transversales , Ejercicio Físico , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Aptitud FísicaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: In 2008, a conceptual model explaining the role of motor competence (MC) in children's physical activity (PA), weight status, perceived MC and health-related fitness was published. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the current review was to systematically compile mediation, longitudinal and experimental evidence in support of this conceptual model. METHODS: This systematic review (registered with PROSPERO on 28 April 2020) was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Separate searches were undertaken for each pathway of interest (final search 8 November 2019) using CINAHL Complete, ERIC, Medline (OVID), PsycINFO, Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and SportDiscus. Potential articles were initially identified through abstract and title checking (N = 585) then screened further and combined into one review (n = 152), with 43 articles identified for extraction. Studies needed to be original and peer reviewed, include typically developing children and adolescents first assessed between 2 and 18 years and objective assessment of gross MC and at least one other variable (i.e., PA, weight status, perceived MC, health-related fitness). PA included sport participation, but sport-specific samples were excluded. Longitudinal or experimental designs and cross-sectional mediated models were sought. Strength of evidence was calculated for each pathway in both directions for each domain (i.e., skill composite, object control and locomotor/coordination/stability) by dividing the proportion of studies indicating a significantly positive pathway in the hypothesised direction by the total associations examined for that pathway. Classifications were no association (0-33%), indeterminate/inconsistent (34-59%), or a positive '+' or negative ' - ' association (≥ 60%). The latter category was classified as strong evidence (i.e., ++or --) when four or more studies found an association. If the total number of studies in a domain of interest was three or fewer, this was considered insufficient evidence to make a determination. RESULTS: There was strong evidence in both directions for a negative association between MC and weight status. There was strong positive evidence for a pathway from MC to fitness and indeterminate evidence for the reverse. There was indeterminate evidence for a pathway from MC to PA and no evidence for the reverse pathway. There was insufficient evidence for the MC to perceived MC pathway. There was strong positive evidence for the fitness-mediated MC/PA pathway in both directions. There was indeterminate evidence for the perceived MC-mediated pathway from PA to MC and no evidence for the reverse. CONCLUSION: Bidirectional longitudinal associations of MC with weight status are consistent with the model authored by Stodden et al. (Quest 2008;60(2):290-306, 2008). However, to test the whole model, the field needs robust longitudinal studies across childhood and adolescence that include all variables in the model, have multiple time points and account for potential confounding factors. Furthermore, experimental studies that examine change in MC relative to change in the other constructs are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: PROSPERO ID# CRD42020155799.
Asunto(s)
Ejercicio Físico , Deportes , Adolescente , Niño , Estudios Transversales , HumanosRESUMEN
ABSTRACTIn sports, outperforming your peers at young age does not guarantee a professional sports career as an adult. To gain more insight in how performance in youth cycling competitions can be an indicator for future success, the current study (a) examined differences in success rate between future achievers and future non-achievers, (b) investigated whether the relative age effect affects these career pathways and (c) explored to what extent youth competitive performance can predict success at adult age. The sample consisted of 307 male road cyclists who achieved at least one top 10 result during national and provincial youth competitions (U15, U17, U19). Thirty-two were classified as future achievers because they reached senior elite level; the remaining 275 were classed as future non-achievers. Non-parametric analyses of longitudinal data, Kruskal-Wallis and logistic regressions were applied. These analyses revealed that the future achievers started to outperform the future non-achievers from U17 onwards. While the relatively older cyclists have an advantage over other cyclists in U15, this effect was smaller in U17 and was absent in U19. Finally, the competitive success rate of U15 cyclists could not predict success at adult age. However, for U17 and U19 cyclists each additional top 10 result was associated with 3-5%, and 6% higher chance to reach elite level at adult age, respectively. Overall, these results demonstrate that estimating potential based on competition results is unpredictable in the U15 category, however, may provide a better indication of future success from U17 onwards.Highlights The competitive success rate of U15 cyclists could not predict success at adult ageFrom the U17 category onwards, future achievers had higher success rates, and success rate has some predictive value for performance at senior elite level.Competitive performance is influenced by relative age effect in the U15 category, however, this effect disappeared as the athlete progressed into older age categories.Future non-achievers experience a significant decrease in success rate when transitioning to a new competition category.