Abdominal visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio in the prediction of metabolic syndrome risk in Japanese Americans followed prospectively for 10-years loses information.

AIMS: Visceral fat predicts the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS), but it is not known whether the visceral to subcutaneous fat area ratio (VSR) measured using imaging predicts MetS risk as well or better. Thus, we aimed to examine if VSR predicted future risk of MetS over 10-years. METHODS: We followed 329 participants in the longitudinal Japanese American Community Diabetes Study without MetS at baseline for its development over 10 years. Intra-abdominal (VFA) and subcutaneous abdominal (SFA) fat areas were measured at baseline and 10-years and used to calculate VSR. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of incident MetS by baseline and 10-year change in VSR and other adipose depots with and without adjustment for baseline MetS features. Areas under ROC curves were calculated in predicting the development of MetS. RESULTS: 99 participants developed MetS over 10-years. Logistic regression models showed a higher odds of incident MetS with greater VSR and 10-year VSR change (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI 1.11-2.51; OR = 1.46, 95 % CI 1.06-2.01, respectively) adjusting for age, sex, and MetS features at baseline. However, VSR alone performed poorly at discriminating (AUROC 0.5807) compared to VFA (AUROC 0.6970, p < 0.001) or a logistic model incorporating VFA and SFA (AUROC 0.7221, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: VSR and VFA predict 10-year MetS risk in Japanese Americans, confirming the importance of relatively greater fat distribution in the visceral depot in the development of MetS. However, VSR is a weaker predictor of MetS development and provides less information compared to VFA alone, and its further use in predicting metabolic abnormalities is not recommended.

Women's subsistence strategies predict fertility across cultures, but context matters.

While it is commonly assumed that farmers have higher, and foragers lower, fertility compared to populations practicing other forms of subsistence, robust supportive evidence is lacking. We tested whether subsistence activities-incorporating market integration-are associated with fertility in 10,250 women from 27 small-scale societies and found considerable variation in fertility. This variation did not align with group-level subsistence typologies. Societies labeled as "farmers" did not have higher fertility than others, while "foragers" did not have lower fertility. However, at the individual level, we found strong evidence that fertility was positively associated with farming and moderate evidence of a negative relationship between foraging and fertility. Markers of market integration were strongly negatively correlated with fertility. Despite strong cross-cultural evidence, these relationships were not consistent in all populations, highlighting the importance of the socioecological context, which likely influences the diverse mechanisms driving the relationship between fertility and subsistence.

Associations of plasma sphingolipids with measures of insulin sensitivity, ß-cell function, and incident diabetes in Japanese Americans.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To prospectively investigate associations of plasma sphingolipids with insulin sensitivity, ß-cell function, and incident diabetes in the Japanese American Community Diabetes Study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Baseline plasma samples from adults without diabetes (n = 349; mean age 56.7 years, 51 % men) were assayed for circulating ceramide and sphingomyelin species. Adjusted regression models examined cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with insulin sensitivity (HOMA2-%S), ß-cell function (oral disposition index: DIo) and with incident diabetes over 5 years follow-up. Concentrations of four species (Ceramide C16:0, C18:0, C20:0, and C22:0) were inversely associated with HOMA2-%S at baseline (all P values < 0.05, Q values < 0.05) and change in HOMA2-%S over 5 years (all P values < 0.05, Q values < 0.05). No sphingolipids were associated with baseline or change in DIo. Of the four species associated with HOMA2-%S, only Ceramide C18:0 was significantly and positively associated with incident diabetes (RR/1SD 1.44, 95 % CI 1.10-1.80, P = 0.006, Q = 0.024). The association of plasma Ceramide C18:0 with the risk of diabetes was partially mediated by change in HOMA2-%S between baseline and 5 years (mediation proportion: 61.5 %, 95 % CI 21.1%-212.5 %). CONCLUSION: Plasma Ceramide C18:0 was associated with higher risk of incident diabetes which was partially mediated through a decrease in insulin sensitivity between baseline and five years. Circulating Ceramide C18:0 could be a potential biomarker for identifying those at risk of developing diabetes.

Plasma amino acid profile, a biomarker for visceral adipose tissue that can substitute for waist circumference in Japanese Americans.

BACKGROUND: Greater visceral fat area (VFA) is associated with cardiometabolic outcomes. We sought to identify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between amino acid (AA) levels and VFA in Japanese-Americans. METHODS: From the cohort of 342 Japanese-American participants (51% men) in a study of diabetes risk factors who were free from diabetes, we measured levels of 20 AA by mass spectrometry, height, weight, waist circumference (WC), VFA, subcutaneous fat area by single-slice CT at the umbilicus. Using AA significantly associated with VFA in univariate analyses, we created a VFA prediction index, termed the 4A index. We compared area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the 4A index to WC and an existing AA index (Yamakado et al. Clin Obes 2012) in classifying VFA at different cutoff values. We fit age-adjusted linear regression models to evaluate associations between AA levels and change in VFA over 5 years. RESULTS: All 20 AA levels significantly detected VFA excess, but WC was better. The 4A index performed better than Yamakado index at classifying VFA ≥ 100 cm2 (0.798, 0.807 vs. 0.677, 0.671 for men and women, p < 0.0033) and VFA ≥ sex-specific median values (0.797, 0.786 vs. 0.676, 0.629 for men and women, p < 0.0017). AA significantly associated with change in VFA over 5 years were asparagine, glutamate, glutamine, glycine, methionine, proline, threonine in men; and histidine, isoleucine, tyrosine in women (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The 4A index can serve as a biomarker for VFA in Japanese-Americans and be considered for this purpose when WC is not available.

Lower High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Concentration Is Independently Associated with Greater Future Accumulation of Intra-Abdominal Fat.

BACKGROUND: Both intra-abdominal fat (IAF) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are known to be associated with cardiometabolic health. We evaluated whether the accumulation of computed tomography (CT)-measured IAF over 5 years was related to baseline HDL-C concentration in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: All participants were Japanese-Americans between the ages of 34 and 74 years. Plasma HDL-C concentration and CT measurements of IAF, abdominal subcutaneous fat (SCF), and thigh SCF cross-sectional areas were assessed at baseline and at 5-year follow-up visits. RESULTS: A total of 397 subjects without diabetes were included. The mean±standard deviation HDL-C concentration was 51.6±13.0 mg/dL in men and 66.0±17.0 mg/dL in women, and the IAF was 91.9±48.4 cm2 in men and 63.1±39.5 cm2 in women. The baseline plasma concentration of HDL-C was inversely associated with the change in IAF over 5 years using multivariable regression analysis with adjustment for age, sex, family history of diabetes, weight change over 5 years, and baseline measurements of body mass index, IAF, abdominal SCF, abdominal circumference, thigh SCF, and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that HDL-C concentration significantly predicts future accumulation of IAF over 5 years independent of age, sex, insulin sensitivity, and body composition in Japanese-American men and women without diabetes.

Leptin and Adiponectin Concentrations Independently Predict Future Accumulation of Visceral Fat in Nondiabetic Japanese Americans.

OBJECTIVE: Whether leptin and adiponectin are independently associated with regional body fat distribution was investigated in a prospective study of Japanese Americans. METHODS: Nondiabetic participants 39 to 79 years of age were followed for 5 years to assess change in body composition. Leptin and adiponectin concentrations were evaluated at baseline and by single-slice computed tomography measurements of intra-abdominal fat (IAF), abdominal subcutaneous fat (SCF), and thigh SCF cross-sectional areas at baseline and at 5 years. RESULTS: Ninety-six men and ninety-five women without diabetes had the following baseline mean (SD) values: age 45.7 (3.5) years and 46.4 (3.9) years, IAF 78.7 (38.6) cm2 and 62.1 (39.0) cm2 , leptin concentration 4.5 (2.3) µg/L and 10.2 (5.2) µg/L, and adiponectin concentration 7.4 (3.2) µg/mL and 10.8 (4.7) µg/mL, respectively. Baseline leptin (ß = 1.7722, P = 0.014) and adiponectin concentrations (ß = -0.4162, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with IAF change over 5 years in multivariable models adjusting for age, sex, diabetes family history, weight change over 5 years, and baseline measurements of BMI, IAF, abdominal SCF, waist circumference, thigh fat, and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: In nondiabetic Japanese Americans, a higher concentration of leptin was associated with greater accumulation of IAF and a higher concentration of adiponectin with lesser accumulation of IAF over 5 years.

Comparison of twenty indices of insulin sensitivity in predicting type 2 diabetes in Japanese Americans: The Japanese American Community Diabetes Study.

AIMS: We compared 20 previously reported indices of insulin sensitivity derived from samples during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to determine which was best in predicting incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 418 Japanese Americans without diabetes for 10-11 years. We compared ability to predict incident diabetes of 20 insulin sensitivity indices-9 based on fasting samples, 7 based on 2-h and/or fasting samples, and 4 based on multiple samples (0, 30, 60, 120 min) during an OGTT-by integrated discrimination improvement, category free net reclassification improvement, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. RESULTS: There were 95 incident cases of diabetes. The Cederholm and Gutt indices, requiring more than only fasting samples, were the best to predict incident diabetes as judged by integrated discrimination improvement (0.187, 0.184), category free net reclassification improvement (0.962, 1.030), and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.864, 0.863, respectively). Fasting indices were clearly inferior to both the Cederholm and Gutt indices. CONCLUSIONS: Among the 20 indices, the Cederholm and Gutt indices predicted diabetes best but the Gutt index may be preferable because it requires fewer samples during an OGTT.

Longitudinal changes in plasma sex hormone concentrations correlate with changes in CT-measured regional adiposity among Japanese American men over 10 years.

OBJECTIVE: Ageing in male adults is typically accompanied by adiposity accumulation and changes in circulating sex hormone concentrations. We hypothesized that an ageing-associated increase in oestrogens and decrease in androgens would correlate with an increase in adiposity. DESIGN: 10-year prospective, observational study. STUDY SUBJECTS: A total of 190, community-dwelling men in the Japanese American Community Diabetes Study. MEASUREMENTS: At 0 and 10 years, CT scanning quantified intra-abdominal fat (IAF) and subcutaneous fat (SCF) areas while plasma concentrations of oestradiol, oestrone, testosterone and dihydrotestosterone were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem-mass spectrometry at each time point. Multivariate linear regression analyses assessed correlations between 10-year changes in hormone concentrations and IAF or SCF, adjusting for age and baseline fat depot area. RESULTS: Participants were middle-aged [median 54.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 39.9-62.8] men and mostly overweight by Asian criterion (median BMI 24.9, IQR 23.3-27.1) and with few exceptions had normal sex-steroid concentrations. Median oestradiol and dihydrotestosterone did not change significantly between 0 and 10 years (P = .084 and P = .596, respectively) while median oestrone increased (P < .001) and testosterone decreased (P < .001). Median IAF and SCF increased from 0 to 10 years (both P < .001). In multivariate analyses, change in oestrone positively correlated (P = .019) while change in testosterone (P = .003) and dihydrotestosterone (P = .014) negatively correlated with change in IAF. Plasma oestradiol and oestrone positively correlated with change in SCF (P = .041 and P = .030, respectively) while testosterone (P = .031) negatively correlated in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Among 190 community-dwelling, Japanese American men, increases in IAF were associated with decreases in plasma androgens and increases in plasma oestrone, but not oestradiol, at 10 years. Further research is necessary to understand whether changing hormone concentrations are causally related to changes in regional adiposity or whether the reverse is true.

Apolipoprotein B Levels Predict Future Development of Hypertension Independent of Visceral Adiposity and Insulin Sensitivity.

BACKGROUND: High plasma apolipoprotein B (apoB) levels have been shown to be associated with hypertension, central obesity, and insulin resistance in cross-sectional research. However, it is unclear whether apoB levels predict future hypertension independent of body composition and insulin sensitivity. Therefore, we prospectively investigated whether plasma apoB concentrations independently predicted the risk of hypertension in a cohort of Japanese Americans. METHODS: A total of 233 normotensive Japanese Americans (77 men, 156 women; mean age, 46.4±11.0 years) were followed over 10 years to monitor them for the development of hypertension. Fasting plasma concentrations of apoB, glucose, and insulin were measured at baseline. Insulin sensitivity was estimated using the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). The abdominal visceral and subcutaneous fat areas were measured at baseline using computed tomography. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the association between apoB concentrations and the odds of incident hypertension. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 21.5%. The baseline apoB level was found to be positively associated with the odds of incident hypertension over 10 years after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, abdominal visceral fat area, abdominal subcutaneous fat area, total plasma cholesterol concentration, diabetes status, and HOMA-IR at baseline (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for a 1-standard deviation increase, 1.89 [1.06 to 3.37]; P=0.030). CONCLUSION: Higher apoB concentrations predicted greater risks of future hypertension independent of abdominal visceral fat area and insulin sensitivity in Japanese Americans.

Short Report: Circulating microRNAs are associated with incident diabetes over 10 years in Japanese Americans.

Epigenetic changes precede the development of diabetes by many years, providing clues to its pathogenesis. We explored whether the epigenetic markers, circulating microRNAs (miRNAs), were associated with incident diabetes in Japanese Americans. We conducted a pilot study (n = 10) using plasma from age- and sex-matched participants who did or did not develop diabetes in the Japanese American Community Diabetes Study, an observational study of diabetes risk factors. Extraction and high-throughput sequencing of miRNAs were performed using samples collected at baseline. Regression models were fit comparing circulating miRNAs (N = 1640) among individuals who did or did not develop incident diabetes at 10-year follow-up. Participants averaged 51.7 years of age at baseline; 60% were male. We identified 36 miRNAs present at different (10 higher and 26 lower) levels in individuals who developed diabetes compared to those who did not (log2fold change ≥1.25 and false discovery rate ≤5%). These included miRNAs with functions in skeletal muscle insulin metabolism (miR-106b and miR-20b-5p) and miRNAs with functions in both skeletal muscle insulin metabolism and cell cycle regulation in endocrine pancreas (miR-15a and miR-17). Circulating miRNAs were associated with subsequent development of diabetes among Japanese Americans over 10 years of follow-up. Results are preliminary. Large-scale miRNA sequencing studies could inform our understanding of diabetes pathogenesis and development of therapies, based on gene expression regulation, that target diabetes.

Intra-Abdominal Fat and High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Are Associated in a Non-Linear Pattern in Japanese-Americans.

BACKGROUND: We describe the association between high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration and computed tomography (CT)-measured fat depots. METHODS: We examined the cross-sectional associations between HDL-C concentration and intra-abdominal (IAF), abdominal subcutaneous (SCF), and thigh fat (TF) areas in 641 Japanese-American men and women. IAF, SCF, and TF were measured by CT at the level of the umbilicus and mid-thigh. The associations between fat area measurements and HDL-C were examined using multivariate linear regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, diabetes family history, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and body mass index (BMI). Non-linearity was assessed using fractional polynomials. RESULTS: Mean±standard deviation of HDL-C concentration and IAF in men and women were 1.30±0.34 mg/dL, 105±55.3 cm², and 1.67±0.43 mg/dL, 74.4±46.6 cm² and differed significantly by gender for both comparisons (P<0.001). In univariate analysis, HDL-C concentration was significantly associated with CT-measured fat depots. In multivariate analysis, IAF was significantly and non-linearly associated with HDL-C concentration adjusted for age, sex, BMI, HOMA-IR, SCF, and TF (IAF: ß=-0.1012, P<0.001; IAF²: ß=0.0008, P<0.001). SCF was also negatively and linearly associated with HDL-C (ß=-0.4919, P=0.001). CONCLUSION: HDL-C does not linearly decline with increasing IAF in Japanese-Americans. A more complex pattern better fits this association.

Change in CT-measured abdominal subcutaneous and visceral but not thigh fat areas predict future insulin sensitivity.

AIMS: We examined the longitudinal association between change in body composition directly measured by computed tomography (CT) and future insulin sensitivity. METHODS: This was a prospective study with 10 years of follow-up with 297 Japanese-American without diabetes. Intra-abdominal fat area (IAFA) and abdominal subcutaneous fat area (SCFA), and thigh SCFA were measured by CT. Insulin sensitivity was calculated by HOMA-IR and the Matsuda index. RESULTS: Baseline and change in IAFA were significantly and independently associated with change in HOMA-IR and Matsuda index during follow-up. In multivariate analysis, IAFA and 10-year change in IAFA (Δ IAFA) was significantly and positively associated with 10-year HOMA-IR (p < 0.001) and significantly and negatively associated with 10-year Matsuda index (p < 0.001). The association with Matsuda index though was non-linear and best modeled as a quadratic function (Δ IAFA +â€¯Δ IAFA2). No significant associations in multivariate analyses were seen between thigh SCFA and insulin sensitivity or abdominal SCFA and HOMA-IR but an increase in abdominal SCFA was associated with diminished insulin sensitivity measured by the Matsuda index. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in visceral adiposity predicts diminished insulin sensitivity over 10 years of follow-up independent of the size of this adipose depot at baseline.

Higher High Density Lipoprotein 2 (HDL2) to Total HDL Cholesterol Ratio Is Associated with a Lower Risk for Incident Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is inversely associated with the development of hypertension. We aimed to determine the association between different HDL cholesterol subclasses and risk of future hypertension. METHODS: A total of 270 Japanese Americans (130 men, 140 women) without hypertension between the ages of 34 to 75 years were enrolled. Blood pressure was measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer, and average blood pressure was calculated. Incident hypertension was determined 5 to 6 and 10 to 11 years after enrollment. HDL2, HDL3, and total HDL cholesterol were measured at baseline. RESULTS: During 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of hypertension was 28.1% (76/270). In univariate analysis, age, diabetes, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin resistance index, total and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and visceral adipose tissue were significant predictors for incident hypertension. Among the HDL cholesterol subclass, HDL2 cholesterol was inversely associated with hypertension incidence, but both total and HDL3 cholesterol were not. In addition, HDL2/HDL cholesterol was inversely associated with future hypertension risk. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 to 2.31; P=0.001), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.31 to 2.56; P<0.001), and HDL2/HDL cholesterol (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.98; P=0.035), were associated with future development of hypertension. CONCLUSION: A higher proportion of HDL2 cholesterol among total HDL cholesterol predicted a lower risk for incident hypertension. However, concentrations of total HDL, HDL2, and HDL3 cholesterol were not independent predictors of incident hypertension.

Association of Thigh Muscle Mass with Insulin Resistance and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Americans.

BACKGROUND: Skeletal muscle plays a major role in glucose metabolism. We investigated the association between thigh muscle mass, insulin resistance, and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. In addition, we examined the role of body mass index (BMI) as a potential effect modifier in this association. METHODS: This prospective study included 399 Japanese Americans without diabetes (mean age 51.6 years) who at baseline had an estimation of thigh muscle mass by computed tomography and at baseline and after 10 years of follow-up a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and determination of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). We fit regression models to examine the association between thigh muscle area and incidence of T2DM and change in HOMA-IR, both measured over 10 years. RESULTS: Thigh muscle area was inversely associated with future HOMA-IR after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, HOMA-IR, fasting plasma glucose, total abdominal fat area, and thigh subcutaneous fat area at baseline (P=0.033). The 10-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 22.1%. A statistically significant interaction between thigh muscle area and BMI was observed, i.e., greater thigh muscle area was associated with lower risk of incident T2DM for subjects at lower levels of BMI, but this association diminished at higher BMI levels. CONCLUSION: Thigh muscle mass area was inversely associated with future insulin resistance. Greater thigh muscle area predicts a lower risk of incident T2DM for leaner Japanese Americans.

Design and validation of a novel estimator of visceral adipose tissue area and comparison to existing adiposity surrogates.

AIMS: Visceral adiposity measured by computed tomography (CT) as intra-abdominal fat area (IAFA) predicts metabolic diseases. Existing adiposity surrogates have not been systematically compared to a regression-based model derived in individuals of Japanese ancestry. We developed and validated a method to estimate IAFA in individuals of Japanese ancestry and compared it to existing adiposity surrogates. METHODS: We assessed age, BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting lipids, glucose, smoking status, grip strength, mid-thigh circumference (MTC), humeral length, leg length, and IAFA by single-slice CT at the umbilicus for 622 Japanese Americans. We used stepwise linear regression to predict IAFA and termed the predicted value the Estimate of Visceral Adipose Tissue Area (EVA). For men, the final model included age, BMI, WC, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), glucose, and MTC; for women, age, BMI, WC, HDLc, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, and MTC. We compared goodness-of-fit (R2) from linear regression models and mean-squared errors (MSE) from k-fold cross-validation to compare the ability of EVA to estimate IAFA compared to an estimate by Després et al., waist-to-height ratio, WC, deep abdominal adipose tissue index, BMI, lipid accumulation product, and visceral adiposity index (VAI). We classified low/high IAFA using area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC) for IAFA dichotomized at the 75th percentile. RESULTS: EVA gave the least MSE and greatest R2 (men: 1244, 0.61; women: 581, 0.72). VAI gave the greatest MSE and smallest R2 (mean 2888, 0.08; women 1734, 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: EVA better predicts IAFA in Japanese-American men and women compared to existing surrogates for adiposity.

Predictors of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Americans with Normal Fasting Glucose Level.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the natural course of normal fasting glucose (NFG) in Asians and the risk factors for future diabetes. METHODS: A total of 370 Japanese Americans (163 men, 207 women) with NFG levels and no history of diabetes, aged 34 to 75 years, were enrolled. Oral glucose tolerance tests were performed at baseline, 2.5, 5, and 10 years after enrollment. RESULTS: During 10 years of follow-up, 16.1% of participants met criteria for diabetes diagnosis, and 39.6% of subjects still had NFG levels at the time of diabetes diagnosis. During 5 years of follow-up, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.10; P=0.026) and family history of diabetes (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.42 to 7.40; P=0.005) were independently associated with future diabetes diagnosis; however, fasting glucose level was not an independent predictor. During 10 years of follow-up, family history of diabetes (OR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.37 to 5.54; P=0.004), fasting insulin level (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02; P=0.037), and fasting glucose level (OR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.13 to 12.01; P=0.030) were associated with diabetes diagnosis independent of conventional risk factors for diabetes. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of subjects with NFG at baseline still remained in the NFG range at the time of diabetes diagnosis. A family history of diabetes and fasting insulin and glucose levels were associated with diabetes diagnosis during 10 years of follow-up; however, fasting glucose level was not associated with diabetes risk within the relatively short-term follow-up period of 5 years in subjects with NFG.

Predictors of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Americans with Normal Fasting Glucose Level.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the natural course of normal fasting glucose (NFG) in Asians and the risk factors for future diabetes. METHODS: A total of 370 Japanese Americans (163 men, 207 women) with NFG levels and no history of diabetes, aged 34 to 75 years, were enrolled. Oral glucose tolerance tests were performed at baseline, 2.5, 5, and 10 years after enrollment. RESULTS: During 10 years of follow-up, 16.1% of participants met criteria for diabetes diagnosis, and 39.6% of subjects still had NFG levels at the time of diabetes diagnosis. During 5 years of follow-up, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.10; P=0.026) and family history of diabetes (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.42 to 7.40; P=0.005) were independently associated with future diabetes diagnosis; however, fasting glucose level was not an independent predictor. During 10 years of follow-up, family history of diabetes (OR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.37 to 5.54; P=0.004), fasting insulin level (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02; P=0.037), and fasting glucose level (OR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.13 to 12.01; P=0.030) were associated with diabetes diagnosis independent of conventional risk factors for diabetes. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of subjects with NFG at baseline still remained in the NFG range at the time of diabetes diagnosis. A family history of diabetes and fasting insulin and glucose levels were associated with diabetes diagnosis during 10 years of follow-up; however, fasting glucose level was not associated with diabetes risk within the relatively short-term follow-up period of 5 years in subjects with NFG.

Natural history of impaired glucose tolerance in Japanese Americans: Change in visceral adiposity is associated with remission from impaired glucose tolerance to normal glucose tolerance.

AIMS: To describe the roles of intra-abdominal fat and its change in the remission of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) to normal glucose tolerance (NGT). METHODS: We followed 157 Japanese Americans with IGT at baseline for 10-11 years without external intervention. We measured intra-abdominal and abdominal subcutaneous fat area (IAFA and ASFA) by computed tomography at baseline and at 5-6 years of follow-up. Change in IAFA and ASFA (ΔIAFA and ΔASFA) were calculated by subtracting baseline fat area from 5-6 year follow-up fat area. Glucose and insulin at fasting and during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, insulinogenic index (IGI [Δinsulin/Δglucose (30-0 min)]) and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were measured at baseline. RESULTS: Fourty-four subjects remitted to NGT. Among those with lower IAFA (≤median 91.31 cm2) and the lowest tertile of ΔIAFA, 45% remitted, while with higher IAFA (>91.31 cm2) and the highest tertile of ΔIAFA, only 12.5% remitted. ΔIAFA was significantly associated with remission to NGT (multiple-adjusted odd ratio [1-SD decrease] 1.93, 95% CI 1.10-3.36) independent of IAFA, ASFA, ΔASFA, IGI, HOMA-IR, age, sex, and family history of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In the natural history of IGT, change in intra-abdominal fat was associated with remission to NGT.

Change in visceral adiposity is an independent predictor of future arterial pulse pressure.

OBJECTIVES: Pulse pressure (PP), a marker of arterial stiffness, and body composition are both risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Little is known about whether changes in body composition may be linked to future PP. We sought to determine whether change in amount of abdominal and thigh fat over 5 years predicted PP at 10 years. METHODS: Visceral fat as well as abdominal and thigh subcutaneous fat areas were measured by computed tomography at baseline and 5 years later in 284 Japanese Americans (mean age 49.3 years; 50.4% men) without hypertension, heart disease, and glucose-lowering medication use at baseline. PP at 10 years was calculated as the difference between SBP and DBP measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer. The association between change in fat at 5 years and arterial PP at 10 years, adjusted for baseline PP, was examined using linear regression analysis. MAIN RESULTS: Change in abdominal visceral fat area at 5 years was positively associated with 10-year PP independent of sex, 5-year change in BMI, and baseline age, BMI, PP, abdominal visceral fat, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, and fasting plasma glucose. There were no significant associations between baseline amounts or change in abdominal or thigh subcutaneous fat areas and future PP. CONCLUSION: The accumulation of abdominal visceral fat over time independently predicted future PP in Japanese Americans.

Effects of combination of change in visceral fat and thigh muscle mass on the development of type 2 diabetes.

AIM: We investigated the association between combined changes of visceral fat and thigh muscle over 5 years and incident type 2 diabetes in a prospective study of Japanese Americans. METHODS: We followed 420 nondiabetic Japanese American subjects for 5 years and assessed visceral fat and thigh muscle by computed tomography (CT) at baseline and at 5 years. We categorized study subjects into 4 body composition change groups: visceral fat loss/thigh muscle gain (VF-loss/TM-gain), visceral fat loss/thigh muscle loss (VF-loss/TM-loss), visceral fat gain/thigh muscle gain (VF-gain/TM-gain), and visceral fat gain/thigh muscle loss (VF-gain/TM-loss) by combining changes from baseline in CT measured visceral fat and estimated thigh muscle areas. We fit a logistic regression model to examine the association between body composition categories and the development of incident type 2 diabetes at 5 years. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes was 9.8% at 5 years. VF-gain/TM-gain and VF-loss/TM-loss groups had higher risk for incident type 2 diabetes in a model adjusted for age, sex, family history of diabetes, and body mass index compared to VF-loss/TM-gain group as the reference category (OR=6.83 (1.85-25.17), 4.55 (1.06-19.48), respectively). However, the VF-gain/TM-loss group did not show a significant association with the odds of incident diabetes (3.24; 95% CI. 0.78-13.47). CONCLUSIONS: Concordant gain or loss in visceral fat and thigh muscle was related to higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared to the reference combination of loss of visceral fat and gain of thigh muscle in Japanese Americans.