Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. METHODS: Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection. FINDINGS: We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 serum samples in the model. For the delta wave, we estimated peak titre values as 490·0 IC50 (95% credible interval 224·3-1515·9) for people with no previous infection and as 702·4 IC50 (300·8-2322·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron; the delta wave did not include people with a previous omicron infection. For the BA.2 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 858·1 IC50 (689·8-1363·2) for people with no previous infection, 1020·7 IC50 (725·9-1722·6) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1422·0 IC50 (679·2-3027·3) for people with a previous omicron infection. For the XBB 1.5 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 703·2 IC50 (415·0-3197·8) for people with no previous infection, 1215·9 IC50 (511·6-7338·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1556·3 IC50 (757·2-7907·9) for people with a previous omicron infection. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows the feasibility of real-time estimation of antibody kinetics before SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence. This estimation is valuable for understanding how specific combinations of SARS-CoV-2 exposures influence antibody kinetics and for examining how COVID-19 vaccination-campaign timing could affect population-level immunity to emerging variants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, UK Research and Innovation, UK Medical Research Council, Francis Crick Institute, and Genotype-to-Phenotype National Virology Consortium.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Seasonal influenza (flu) viruses cause outbreaks every winter. People infected with influenza typically develop mild respiratory symptoms. But flu infections can cause serious illness in young children, older adults and people with chronic medical conditions. Infected or vaccinated individuals develop some immunity, but the viruses evolve quickly to evade these defenses in a process called antigenic drift. As the viruses change, they can re-infect previously immune people. Scientists update the flu vaccine yearly to keep up with this antigenic drift. The immune system fights flu infections by recognizing two proteins, known as antigens, on the virus's surface, called hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, mutations in the genes encoding these proteins can make them unrecognizable, letting the virus slip past the immune system. Scientists would like to know how these changes affect the size, severity and timing of annual influenza outbreaks. Perofsky et al. show that tracking genetic changes in HA and NA may help improve flu season predictions. The experiments compared the severity of 22 flu seasons caused by the A(H3N2) subtype in the United States with how much HA and NA had evolved since the previous year. The A(H3N2) subtype experiences the fastest rates of antigenic drift and causes more cases and deaths than other seasonal flu viruses. Genetic changes in HA and NA were a better predictor of A(H3N2) outbreak severity than the blood tests for protective antibodies that epidemiologists traditionally use to track flu evolution. However, the prevalence of another subtype of influenza A circulating in the population, called A(H1N1), was an even better predictor of how severe A(H3N2) outbreaks would be. Perofsky et al. are the first to show that genetic changes in NA contribute to the severity of flu seasons. Previous studies suggested a link between genetic changes in HA and flu season severity, and flu vaccines include the HA protein to help the body recognize new influenza strains. The results suggest that adding the NA protein to flu vaccines may improve their effectiveness. In the future, flu forecasters may want to analyze genetic changes in both NA and HA to make their outbreak predictions. Tracking how much of the A(H1N1) subtype is circulating may also be useful for predicting the severity of A(H3N2) outbreaks.

Stop H5N1 influenza in US cattle now.

The relentless march of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) strain, known as H5N1, to become an unprecedented panzootic continues unchecked. The leap of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b from Eurasia and Africa to North America in 2021 and its further spread to South America and the Antarctic have exposed new avian and mammalian populations to the virus and led to outbreaks on an unrivaled scale. The virus has infected wild birds across vast geographic regions and caused wildlife deaths in some of the world's most biodiverse ecosystems. Hundreds of millions of poultry have died or been culled, affecting global food security in some of the world's poorest regions. Numerous mammalian species, including sea lions and fur animals, have been infected. Outbreaks in dairy cows in the United States have been occurring for months, seemingly unchecked in most affected states. Why is there not a greater sense of urgency to control these infections?

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

A case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England, November 2023.

Under International Health Regulations from 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus variant is considered an event that has potential for high public health impact and is immediately notifiable to the World Health Organisation. We here describe the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of a confirmed human case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England detected through community respiratory virus surveillance. Swabbing and contact tracing helped refine public health risk assessment, following this unusual and unexpected finding.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Antigenic mapping of the hemagglutinin of the H9 subtype influenza A viruses using sera from Japanese quail (Coturnix c. japonica).

IMPORTANCE: Determining the relevant amino acids involved in antigenic drift on the surface protein hemagglutinin (HA) is critical to understand influenza virus evolution and efficient assessment of vaccine strains relative to current circulating strains. We used antigenic cartography to generate an antigenic map of the H9 hemagglutinin (HA) using sera produced in one of the most relevant minor poultry species, Japanese quail. Key antigenic positions were identified and tested to confirm their impact on the antigenic profile. This work provides a better understanding of the antigenic diversity of the H9 HA as it relates to reactivity to quail sera and will facilitate a rational approach for selecting more efficacious vaccines against poultry-origin H9 influenza viruses in minor poultry species.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity of H5 Avian Influenza Viruses in the United Kingdom from 2020-2022.

Since 2020, the United Kingdom and Europe have experienced annual epizootics of high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV). The first epizootic, during the autumn/winter of 2020-2021, involved six H5Nx subtypes, although H5N8 HPAIV dominated in the United Kingdom. While genetic assessments of the H5N8 HPAIVs within the United Kingdom demonstrated relative homogeneity, there was a background of other genotypes circulating at a lower degree with different neuraminidase and internal genes.  Following a small number of detections of H5N1 in wild birds over the summer of 2021, the autumn/winter of 2021-2022 saw another European H5 HPAIV epizootic that dwarfed the prior epizootic. This second epizootic was dominated almost exclusively by H5N1 HPAIV, although six distinct genotypes were defined. We have used genetic analysis to evaluate the emergence of different genotypes and proposed reassortment events that have been observed. The existing data suggest that the H5N1 viruses circulating in Europe during late 2020 continued to circulate in wild birds throughout 2021, with minimal adaptation, but then went on to reassort with AIVs in the wild bird population. We have undertaken an in-depth genetic assessment of H5 HPAIVs detected in the United Kingdom over two winter seasons and demonstrate the utility of in-depth genetic analyses in defining the diversity of H5 HPAIVs circulating in avian species, the potential for zoonotic risk, and whether incidents of lateral spread can be defined over independent incursions of infections from wild birds. This provides key supporting data for mitigation activities. IMPORTANCE High-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks devastate avian species across all sectors, having both economic and ecological impacts through mortalities in poultry and wild birds, respectively. These viruses can also represent a significant zoonotic risk. Since 2020, the United Kingdom has experienced two successive outbreaks of H5 HPAIV. While H5N8 HPAIV was predominant during the 2020-2021 outbreak, other H5 subtypes were also detected. The following year, there was a shift in the subtype dominance to H5N1 HPAIV, but multiple H5N1 genotypes were detected. Through the thorough utilization of whole-genome sequencing, it was possible to track and characterize the genetic evolution of these H5 HPAIVs in United Kingdom poultry and wild birds. This enabled us to assess the risk posed by these viruses at the poultry-wild bird and the avian-human interfaces and to investigate the potential lateral spread between infected premises, a key factor in understanding the threat to the commercial sector.

The production of Newcastle disease virus-like particles in Nicotiana benthamiana as potential vaccines.

Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral respiratory and neurological disease that has a severe impact on poultry production worldwide. In the present study, an expression platform was established for the transient production in N.bethamiana of ND virus-like particles (VLPs) for use as vaccines against ND. The expression of the ND Fusion (F) and/or Hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) proteins of a genotype VII.2 strain formed ND VLPs in planta as visualized under the transmission electron microscope, and HN-containing VLPs agglutinated chicken erythrocytes with hemagglutination (HA) titres of up to 13 log2.The immunogenicity of the partially-purified ND VLPs was confirmed in specific-pathogen-free White leghorn chickens. Birds receiving a single intramuscular immunization with 1024 HA units (10 log2) of the F/HN ND VLPs administered with 20% [v/v] Emulsigen®-P adjuvant, seroconverted after 14 days with F- and HN-specific antibodies at ELISA titres of 5705.17 and HI geometric mean titres (GMTs) of 6.2 log2, respectively. Furthermore, these ND-specific antibodies successfully inhibited viral replication in vitro of two antigenically closely-related ND virus isolates, with virus-neutralization test GMTs of 3.47 and 3.4, respectively. Plant-produced ND VLPs have great potential as antigen-matched vaccines for poultry and other avian species that are highly immunogenic, cost-effective, and facilitate prompt updating to ensure improved protection against emerging ND field viruses.

JMM Profile: Swine influenza A virus: a neglected virus with pandemic potential.

Swine influenza is an acute respiratory disease of swine caused by swine influenza A virus (SwIAV). The ability of SwIAV to spread bidirectionally from animals to humans (zoonotic), and from humans to animals (reverse zoonotic), drives coinfection that can result in gene segment exchange and elevates the risk of generating viruses with pandemic potential. Compared to human-origin influenza A viruses, current data indicate a greater diversity amongst circulating SwIAVs, with three major subtypes (classified by haemagglutinin and neuraminidase) circulating globally in swine (H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2). The lack of protection afforded by human seasonal influenza vaccines against SwIAVs exacerbates the risk associated with reassortment of human, swine and potentially avian viruses. As such, global monitoring of SwIAVs is important for both human and animal health as they represent a true 'One Health' challenge with pandemic potential.

Swine-to-Ferret Transmission of Antigenically Drifted Contemporary Swine H3N2 Influenza A Virus Is an Indicator of Zoonotic Risk to Humans.

Human-to-swine transmission of influenza A (H3N2) virus occurs repeatedly and plays a critical role in swine influenza A virus (IAV) evolution and diversity. Human seasonal H3 IAVs were introduced from human-to-swine in the 1990s in the United States and classified as 1990.1 and 1990.4 lineages; the 1990.4 lineage diversified into 1990.4.A-F clades. Additional introductions occurred in the 2010s, establishing the 2010.1 and 2010.2 lineages. Human zoonotic cases with swine IAV, known as variant viruses, have occurred from the 1990.4 and 2010.1 lineages, highlighting a public health concern. If a variant virus is antigenically drifted from current human seasonal vaccine (HuVac) strains, it may be chosen as a candidate virus vaccine (CVV) for pandemic preparedness purposes. We assessed the zoonotic risk of US swine H3N2 strains by performing phylogenetic analyses of recent swine H3 strains to identify the major contemporary circulating genetic clades. Representatives were tested in hemagglutination inhibition assays with ferret post-infection antisera raised against existing CVVs or HuVac viruses. The 1990.1, 1990.4.A, and 1990.4.B.2 clade viruses displayed significant loss in cross-reactivity to CVV and HuVac antisera, and interspecies transmission potential was subsequently investigated in a pig-to-ferret transmission study. Strains from the three lineages were transmitted from pigs to ferrets via respiratory droplets, but there were differential shedding profiles. These data suggest that existing CVVs may offer limited protection against swine H3N2 infection, and that contemporary 1990.4.A viruses represent a specific concern given their widespread circulation among swine in the United States and association with multiple zoonotic cases.

Detection of Clade 2.3.4.4b Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus in Cambodia, 2021.

In late 2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses were detected in domestic ducks in poultry markets in Cambodia. Surveillance, biosafety, and biosecurity efforts should be bolstered along the poultry value chain to limit spread and infection risk at the animal-human interface.

Antigenic Characterization and Pandemic Risk Assessment of North American H1 Influenza A Viruses Circulating in Swine.

The first pandemic of the 21st century was caused by an H1N1 influenza A virus (IAV) introduced from pigs into humans, highlighting the importance of swine as reservoirs for pandemic viruses. Two major lineages of swine H1 circulate in North America: the 1A classical swine lineage (including that of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) and the 1B human seasonal-like lineage. Here, we investigated the evolution of these H1 IAV lineages in North American swine and their potential pandemic risk. We assessed the antigenic distance between the HA of representative swine H1 and human seasonal vaccine strains (1978 to 2015) in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays using a panel of monovalent antisera raised in pigs. Antigenic cross-reactivity varied by strain but was associated with genetic distance. Generally, the swine 1A lineage viruses that seeded the 2009 H1 pandemic were antigenically most similar to the H1 pandemic vaccine strains, with the exception of viruses in the genetic clade 1A.1.1.3, which had a two-amino acid deletion mutation near the receptor-binding site, which dramatically reduced antibody recognition. The swine 1B lineage strains, which arose from previously circulating (pre-2009 pandemic) human seasonal viruses, were more antigenically similar to pre-2009 human seasonal H1 vaccine viruses than post-2009 strains. Human population immunity was measured by cross-reactivity in HI assays to representative swine H1 strains. There was a broad range of titers against each swine strain that was not associated with age, sex, or location. However, there was almost no cross-reactivity in human sera to the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 genetic clades of swine viruses, and the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 clades were also the most antigenically distant to the human vaccine strains. Our data demonstrate that the antigenic distances of representative swine strains from human vaccine strains represent an important part of the rational assessment of swine IAV for zoonotic risk research and pandemic preparedness prioritization. IMPORTANCE Human H1 influenza A viruses (IAV) spread to pigs in North America, resulting in a sustained circulation of two major groups of H1 viruses in swine. We quantified the genetic diversity of H1 in swine and measured antigenic phenotypes. We demonstrated that the swine H1 lineages were significantly different from the human vaccine strains and that this antigenic dissimilarity increased over time as the viruses evolved in swine. Pandemic preparedness vaccine strains for human vaccines also demonstrated a loss in similarity with contemporary swine strains. Human sera revealed a range of responses to swine IAV, including two groups of viruses with little to no immunity. The surveillance and risk assessment of IAV diversity in pig populations are essential to detect strains with reduced immunity in humans and provide critical information for pandemic preparedness.

Interspecies Transmission from Pigs to Ferrets of Antigenically Distinct Swine H1 Influenza A Viruses with Reduced Reactivity to Candidate Vaccine Virus Antisera as Measures of Relative Zoonotic Risk.

During the last decade, endemic swine H1 influenza A viruses (IAV) from six different genetic clades of the hemagglutinin gene caused zoonotic infections in humans. The majority of zoonotic events with swine IAV were restricted to a single case with no subsequent transmission. However, repeated introduction of human-seasonal H1N1, continual reassortment between endemic swine IAV, and subsequent drift in the swine host resulted in highly diverse swine IAV with human-origin genes that may become a risk to the human population. To prepare for the potential of a future swine-origin IAV pandemic in humans, public health laboratories selected candidate vaccine viruses (CVV) for use as vaccine seed strains. To assess the pandemic risk of contemporary US swine H1N1 or H1N2 strains, we quantified the genetic diversity of swine H1 HA genes, and identified representative strains from each circulating clade. We then characterized the representative swine IAV against human seasonal vaccine and CVV strains using ferret antisera in hemagglutination inhibition assays (HI). HI assays revealed that 1A.3.3.2 (pdm09) and 1B.2.1 (delta-2) demonstrated strong cross reactivity to human seasonal vaccines or CVVs. However, swine IAV from three clades that represent more than 50% of the detected swine IAVs in the USA showed significant reduction in cross-reactivity compared to the closest CVV virus: 1A.1.1.3 (alpha-deletion), 1A.3.3.3-clade 3 (gamma), and 1B.2.2.1 (delta-1a). Representative viruses from these three clades were further characterized in a pig-to-ferret transmission model and shown to exhibit variable transmission efficiency. Our data prioritize specific genotypes of swine H1N1 and H1N2 to further investigate in the risk they pose to the human population.

A threat from both sides: Multiple introductions of genetically distinct H5 HPAI viruses into Canada via both East Asia-Australasia/Pacific and Atlantic flyways.

From 2016 to 2020, high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses circulated in Asia, Europe, and Africa, causing waves of infections and the deaths of millions of wild and domestic birds and presenting a zoonotic risk. In late 2021, H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from poultry in Canada and also retrospectively from a great black-backed gull (Larus marinus), raising concerns that the spread of these viruses to North America was mediated by migratory wild bird populations. In February and April 2022, H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from a bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) and broiler chickens in British Columbia, Canada. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the virus from bald eagle was genetically related to H5N1 HPAI virus isolated in Hokkaido, Japan, in January 2022. The virus identified from broiler chickens was a reassortant H5N1 HPAI virus with unique constellation genome segments containing PB2 and NP from North American lineage LPAI viruses, and the remaining gene segments were genetically related to the original Newfoundland-like H5N1 HPAI viruses detected in November and December 2021 in Canada. This is the first report of H5 HPAI viruses' introduction to North America from the Pacific and the North Atlantic-linked flyways and highlights the expanding risk of genetically distinct virus introductions from different geographical locations and the potential for local reassortment with both the American lineage LPAI viruses in wild birds and with both Asian-like and European-like H5 HPAI viruses. We also report the presence of some amino acid substitutions across each segment that might contribute to the replicative efficiency of these viruses in mammalian host, evade adaptive immunity, and pose a potential zoonotic risk.

Has Epizootic Become Enzootic? Evidence for a Fundamental Change in the Infection Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2021.

Phylogenetic evidence from the recent resurgence of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b, observed in European wild birds and poultry since October 2021, suggests at least two different and distinct reservoirs. We propose contrasting hypotheses for this emergence: (i) resident viruses have been maintained, presumably in wild birds, in northern Europe throughout the summer of 2021 to cause some of the outbreaks that are part of the most recent autumn/winter 2021 epizootic, or (ii) further virus variants were reintroduced by migratory birds, and these two sources of reintroduction have driven the HPAI resurgence. Viruses from these two principal sources can be distinguished by their hemagglutinin genes, which segregate into two distinct sublineages (termed B1 and B2) within clade 2.3.4.4b, as well as their different internal gene compositions. The evidence of enzootic HPAI virus circulation during the summer of 2021 indicates a possible paradigm shift in the epidemiology of HPAI in Europe.

JMM Profile: Avian influenza: a veterinary pathogen with zoonotic potential.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are classified as either low pathogenicity (LP; generally causing sub-clinical to mild infections) or high pathogenicity (HP; capable of causing significant mortality events in birds). To date, HPAIVs appear o be restricted to the haemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein H5 and H7 AIV subtypes. Both LPAIV and HPAIV H5 and H7 AIV subtypes are classified as the causative agents of notifiable disease in poultry. A broad range of non-H5/non-H7 LPAIVs also exist that have been associated with more severe disease outcomes in avian species. As a result, the constant threat from AIVs causes significant economic damage in poultry production systems worldwide. The close proximity between mammalian and susceptible avian species in some environments provides the opportunity for both inter-host transmission and mammalian adaptation, potentially resulting in novel AIV strains capable of infecting humans.

Detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b in Great Skuas: A Species of Conservation Concern in Great Britain.

The UK and Europe have seen successive outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza across the 2020/21 and 2021/22 autumn/winter seasons. Understanding both the epidemiology and transmission of these viruses in different species is critical to aid mitigating measures where outbreaks cause extensive mortalities in both land- and waterfowl. Infection of different species can result in mild or asymptomatic outcomes, or acute infections that result in high morbidity and mortality levels. Definition of disease outcome in different species is of great importance to understanding the role different species play in the maintenance and transmission of these pathogens. Further, the infection of species that have conservation value is also important to recognise and characterise to understand the impact on what might be limited wild populations. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has been detected in great skuas (Stercorarius skua) across different colonies on islands off the shore of Scotland, Great Britain during summer 2021. A large number of great skuas were observed as developing severe clinical disease and dying during the epizootic and mortalities were estimated to be high where monitored. Of eight skuas submitted for post-mortem examination, seven were confirmed as being infected with this virus using a range of diagnostic assays. Here we overview the outbreak event that occurred in this species, listed as species of conservation concern in Great Britain and outline the importance of this finding with respect to virus transmission and maintenance.

Antigenic Distance between North American Swine and Human Seasonal H3N2 Influenza A Viruses as an Indication of Zoonotic Risk to Humans.

Human-to-swine transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) repeatedly occurs, leading to sustained transmission and increased diversity in swine; human seasonal H3N2 introductions occurred in the 1990s and 2010s and were maintained in North American swine. Swine H3N2 strains were subsequently associated with zoonotic infections, highlighting the need to understand the risk of endemic swine IAV to humans. We quantified antigenic distances between swine H3N2 and human seasonal vaccine strains from 1973 to 2014 using a panel of monovalent antisera raised in pigs in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Swine H3N2 lineages retained the closest antigenic similarity to human vaccine strains from the decade of incursion. Swine lineages from the 1990s were antigenically more similar to human vaccine strains of the mid-1990s but had substantial distance from recent human vaccine strains. In contrast, lineages from the 2010s were closer to human vaccine strains from 2011 and 2014 and the most antigenically distant from human vaccine strains prior to 2007. HI assays using ferret antisera demonstrated that swine lineages from the 1990s and 2010s had significant fold reductions compared to the homologous HI titer of the nearest pandemic preparedness candidate vaccine virus (CVV) or seasonal vaccine strain. The assessment of postinfection and postvaccination human serum cohorts demonstrated limited cross-reactivity to swine H3N2 from the 1990s, especially in older adults born before the 1970s. We identified swine strains to which humans are likely to lack population immunity or are not protected against by a current human seasonal vaccine or CVV to use in prioritizing future human CVV strain selection. IMPORTANCE Human H3N2 influenza A viruses spread to pigs in North America in the 1990s and more recently in the 2010s. These cross-species events led to sustained circulation and increased H3N2 diversity in pig populations. The evolution of H3N2 in swine led to a reduced similarity to human seasonal H3N2 and the vaccine strains used to protect human populations. We quantified the antigenic phenotypes and found that North American swine H3N2 lineages retained more antigenic similarity to historical human vaccine strains from the decade of incursion but had substantial differences compared to recent human vaccine strains. Additionally, pandemic preparedness vaccine strains demonstrated a loss of similarity to contemporary swine strains. Finally, human sera revealed that although these adults had antibodies against human H3N2 strains, many had limited immunity to swine H3N2, especially older adults born before 1970. Antigenic assessment of swine H3N2 provides critical information for pandemic preparedness and candidate vaccine development.