A grey seasonal least square support vector regression model for time series forecasting.

Seasonality is a fundamental and common property of most time series in the real world. In this article, we propose a grey seasonal least square support vector regression, abbreviated as GSLSSVR, by combining the dummy variables, framework of the LSSVR model, and grey accumulation generation operation to reflect seasonal variations in functional forms, variables, and parameters. Our framework provides an intuitive and simple set up of arbitrary seasonality in any feature, which considerably enhances model realism. Further, the regulation method is introduced to increase the stability and generalization of the newly proposed model. Using the Lagrange multipliers algorithm, the model parameters are obtained by solving a set of linear equations. In addition, the last block evaluation is developed, which has the same size in the validating and testing data, to identify the hyperparameters of this novel model. For verification purposes, four real seasonal time series having various characteristics are employed in this work, including quarterly electricity consumption, monthly cargo throughput, monthly crude oil production, and monthly gasoline production in China. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model can provide for analysis of seasonal regulatory measures and is validated to be superior to other prevalent forecasting models referring to the SGM(1,1), SFGM(1,1), LSSVR, SARIMA-GARCH, and BPNN models. Ultimately, our model is highly recommended for addressing issues with periodic and nonlinear features.

Effectiveness of Traditional Chinese Exercise for Symptoms of Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Background: Growing evidences have advocated the potential benefits of traditional Chinese exercise (TCE) on symptomatic improvement of knee osteoarthritis (KOA). However, most of them have been derived from cross-sectional studies or case reports; the effectiveness of TCE therapies has not been fully assessed with a randomized control trial (RCT). In order to evaluate the combined clinical effectiveness of TCE for KOA, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the existing RCTs on KOA. Methods: A systematic search was performed in four electronic databases: PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE from the time of their inception to February 2020. All eligible RCTs were included in which TCE was utilized for treating KOA as compared to a control group. Two reviewers independently extracted the data and evaluated the risk of bias following the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for RCT. The symptoms of KOA evaluated by the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) and the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) were regarded as the primary outcomes in this study. Each outcome measure was pooled by a standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). A meta-analysis was applied with a random or fixed effect model for the collected data to calculate the summary SMD with 95% CI based on different statistical heterogeneity. In addition, subgroup analyses were used to investigate heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis was carried out for the results of the meta-analysis. Egger's test and the funnel plots were used to examine the potential bias in the RCTs. Results: A total of 14 RCTs involving 815 patients with KOA were included. Compared with a control group; the synthesized data of TCE showed a significant improvement in WOMAC/KOOS pain score (SMD = -0.61; 95% CI: -0.86 to -0.37; p < 0.001), stiffness score (SMD = -0.75; 95% CI: -1.09 to -0.41; p < 0.001), and physical function score (SMD = -0.67; 95% CI: -0.82 to -0.53; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis suggested that TCE may be effective in alleviating pain; relieving stiffness and improving the physical function for patients with KOA. Yet; given the methodological limitations of included RCTs in this meta-analysis; more high-quality RCTs with large sample size and long-term intervention are required to further confirm the effectiveness and underlying mechanisms of TCE for treating KOA.

Treadmill exercise ameliorates chronic REM sleep deprivation-induced anxiety-like behavior and cognitive impairment in C57BL/6J mice.

Various sleep disorders have deleterious effects on mental and cognitive performance. Exercise, as an alternative therapeutic strategy, exerts beneficial impacts on human health. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of 4 weeks treadmill exercise (4W-TE) on anxiety-like behavior and cognitive performance in mice exposed to 2 months REM sleep deprivation (2M-SD) (20 h per day). Behavioral performance of mice in elevated plus maze test (EPM), open field test (OFT), Y maze test (YM) and Morris water maze test (MWM) was recorded and analyzed 28 h after the last day of sleep deprivation. After behavioral tests, various neurotransmitters including norepinephrine (NE), dopamine (DA), serotonin (5-HT) and γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in mouse hippocampus were quantified using high performance liquid chromatography. The hippocampal levels of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) were further detected using ELISA. Behavioral data indicated that 2M-SD exposure induced anxiety-like behaviors and cognitive impairment, as evidenced by the decreased open-arm entries in EPM, reduced central area travels in OFT, declined spontaneous alteration in YM and prolonged escaping latency in MWM. In addition, 2M-SD exposure increased NE and DA, decreased 5-HT and GABA, and reduced IGF-1 and BDNF levels in mouse hippocampus. Interestingly, all these behavioral, neurochemical and neurobiological changes can be ameliorated by 4W-TE training. In summary, these findings confirm the beneficial impacts of exercise on health and provide further experimental evidence for future application of exercise as an alternative therapy against the mental and cognitive problems in patients with sleep disorders.

Therapeutic effect of gradual attention training on language function in patients with post-stroke aphasia: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of gradual attention training on language function with aphasia. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 40 patients (mean age: 53.47 years) with post-stroke aphasia came from the stroke rehabilitation unit of rehabilitation department in the First Hospital of Jilin University, of which 13 (32.5%) had intracerebral hemorrhage, 28 inpatients and 12 outpatients, 11 women and 29 men, 34 within three-month stroke and 6 within three months to one year. INTERVENTIONS: All participants were divided into control and experimental groups. Both groups received language treatment 20 minutes a day, six days/week, for five weeks, and the experimental group received gradual attention training 20 minutes a day, six days/week, for five weeks. MAIN MEASURES: Language function was assessed pre- and post-treatment by components of the Western Aphasia Battery (WAB) which included spontaneous speech, auditory comprehension, repetition, and naming and then calculated the aphasia quotient (AQ). RESULTS: The mean (SD) AQ of the experimental group and control group, respectively, was 25.71 (12.63) and 26.2 (12.31) at baseline. After treatment, the AQ mean (SD) was 43.08 (15.14) in the experimental group, which showed a significant improvement compared to 33.48 (14.04) in the control group (P = 0.02).All items of WAB were higher in experimental group than those in control group, especially in auditory comprehension and naming (P = 0.02, 0.01). CONCLUSION: Gradual attention training seemed to improve language function in post-stroke aphasia, specifically function of listening comprehension and naming.