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OBJECTIVE: To identify factors influencing recurrence after percutaneous transhepatic choledochoscopic lithotripsy (PTCSL) and to develop a predictive model. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from 354 patients with intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile duct stones treated with PTCSL at Qinzhou First People's Hospital between February 2018 and January 2020. Patients were followed for three years and categorized into non-recurrence and recurrence groups based on postoperative outcome. Univariate analysis identified possible predictors of stone recurrence. Data were split using the gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, assigning 70% as the training set and 30% as the test set. The predictive performance of the GBM model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, and compared with a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Six factors were identified as significant predictors of recurrence: age, diabetes, total bilirubin, biliary stricture, number of stones, and stone diameter. The GBM model, developed based on these factors, showed high predictive accuracy. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.695-0.830) for the training set and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.596-0.822) for the test set. Optimal cutoff values were 0.286 and 0.264, with sensitivities of 62.30% and 66.70%, and specificities of 77.20% and 68.50%, respectively. Calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted probabilities and observed recurrence rates in both sets. DeLong's test revealed no significant differences between the GBM and logistic regression models in predictive performance (training set: D = 0.003, P = 0.997 > 0.05; test set: D = 0.075, P = 0.940 > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Biliary stricture, stone diameter, diabetes, stone number, age, and total bilirubin significantly influence stone recurrence after PTCSL. The GBM model, based on these factors, demonstrates robust accuracy and discrimination. Both GBM and logistic regression models effectively predicted stone recurrence post-PTCSL.
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The clinical efficacy of thymosin α1 (Tα1) therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) subsequent to radical hepatectomy is unclear. In the present study, the impact of Tα1 therapy on outcomes in HCC patients after radical hepatectomy was retrospectively evaluated. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for 146 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated HCC who were treated by radical hepatectomy and subsequently with Tα1 therapy, as well as for 412 control patients with HBV-associated HCC treated by radical hepatectomy. Propensity score matching was used to minimize confounding variables due to baseline differences. Liver function, recurrence-free survival and overall survival rates were compared between the two groups. Serum markers of liver function were significantly improved in the Tα1 group compared with the control group. The 1-, 2- and 3-year overall survival rates were 87.2, 82.0 and 68.4% in the Tα1 group and 78.2, 64.2 and 49.7% in the control group (P=0.011). The 1-, 2- and 3-year recurrence-free survival rates were 79.7, 70.8 and 67.3% in the Tα1 group and 69.9, 61.5 and 51.6% in the control group (P=0.019). The results suggested that post-hepatectomy Tα1 therapy improves liver function and significantly prolong recurrence-free and overall survival in patients with HBV-associated HCC.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of antiviral therapy for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical hepatectomy. METHODS: A total of 478 HBV-related HCC patients treated by radical hepatectomy were retrospectively collected. Patients in the treatment group (n=141) received postoperative lamivudine treatment (100 mg/d), whereas patients in the control group (n=337) did not. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates, overall survival (OS) rates, treatments for recurrent HCC and cause of death were compared between the two groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was also conducted to reduce confounding bias between the two groups. RESULTS: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates didn't significantly differ between the two groups (P=0.778); however, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates in the treatment group were significantly higher than those in the control group (P=0.002). Similar results were observed in the matched data. Subgroup analysis showed that antiviral treatment conferred a significant survival benefit for Barcelona Clinical Liver Cancer stage A/B patients. Following HCC recurrence, more people in the treatment group were able to choose curative treatments than those in the control group (P=0.031). For cause of death, fewer people in the treatment group died of liver failure than those in the control group (P=0.041). CONCLUSION: Postoperative antiviral therapy increases chances of receiving curative treatments for recurrent HCC and prevents death because of liver failure, thereby significantly prolonging OS, especially in early- or intermedian-stage tumors.
