DNA ploidy and PTEN as biomarkers for predicting aggressive disease in prostate cancer patients under active surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification tools for prostate cancer patients under active surveillance (AS) may inadequately identify those needing treatment. We investigated DNA ploidy and PTEN as potential biomarkers to predict aggressive disease in AS patients. METHODS: We assessed DNA ploidy by image cytometry and PTEN protein expression by immunohistochemistry in 3197 tumour-containing tissue blocks from 558 patients followed in AS at a Norwegian local hospital. The primary endpoint was treatment, with treatment failure (biochemical recurrence or initiation of salvage therapy) as the secondary endpoint. RESULTS: The combined DNA ploidy and PTEN (DPP) status at diagnosis was associated with treatment-free survival in univariable- and multivariable analysis, with a HR for DPP-aberrant vs. DPP-normal tumours of 2.12 (p < 0.0001) and 1.94 (p < 0.0001), respectively. Integration of DNA ploidy and PTEN status with the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score improved risk stratification (c-index difference = 0.025; p = 0.0033). Among the treated patients, those with DPP-aberrant tumours exhibited a significantly higher likelihood of treatment failure (HR 2.01; p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: DNA ploidy and PTEN could serve as additional biomarkers to identify AS patients at increased risk of developing aggressive disease, enabling earlier intervention for nearly 50% of the patients that will eventually receive treatment with current protocol.

Effect of Drug Monitoring on Adherence and Blood Pressure: A Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Drug concentration in blood or urine is an acknowledged method to detect non-adherence. Observational studies suggest that informing patients about low or absent serum drug levels improves blood pressure (BP). We performed a multicenter randomized clinical trial to test the hypothesis that therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) could improve drug adherence and BP in patients with uncontrolled hypertension and reduced adherence to antihypertensive drugs. METHODS: Patients were ≥18 years on stable treatment with at least two antihypertensive agents. We planned to randomize 80 non-adherent patients with a systolic daytime ambulatory BP (ABPM) ≥135 mmHg to TDM-intervention or not. The control group and the study-personnel who measured BP remained uninformed about serum drug measurements throughout. All patients and physicians were blinded for BPs. Lifestyle advice and detailed information on disease process and importance of BP treatment were given to both groups. RESULTS: From 2017 to 2022, we randomized 46 diagnosed non-adherent from a total of 606 patients with uncontrolled hypertension. The TDM-group had a 6.7 (±14.5) mmHg reduction from 147.9 (±10.3) to 141.1 (±14.1) mmHg, and the control group experienced a 7.3 (±13.2) mmHg reduction from 147.1 (±9.2) to 139.1 (±17.4) mmHg, p=0.9 between groups. Adherence improved in both groups, 73% in the TDM group and 59% in the control group became adherent at three months, p=0.51. CONCLUSIONS: In our prospective multicenter clinical trial of uncontrolled and non-adherent hypertensive patients, we found no additional effect of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) on blood pressure and drug adherence compared with standard care.

Preoperative versus postoperative survival in patients with univentricular heart: a nationwide, retrospective study of patients born in 1990-2015.

OBJECTIVES: Few data exist on mortality among patients with univentricular heart (UVH) before surgery. Our aim was to explore the results of intention to perform surgery by estimating preoperative vs postoperative survival in different UVH subgroups. DESIGN: Retrospective. SETTING: Tertiary centre for congenital cardiology and congenital heart surgery. PARTICIPANTS: All 595 Norwegian children with UVH born alive from 1990 to 2015, followed until 31 December 2020. RESULTS: One quarter (151/595; 25.4%) were not operated. Among these, only two survived, and 125/149 (83.9%) died within 1 month. Reasons for not operating were that surgery was not feasible in 31.1%, preoperative complications in 25.2%, general health issues in 23.2% and parental decision in 20.5%. In total, 327/595 (55.0%) died; 283/327 (86.5%) already died during the first 2 years of life. Preoperative survival varied widely among the UVH subgroups, ranging from 40/65 (61.5%) among patients with unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect to 39/42 (92.9%) among patients with double inlet left ventricle. Postoperative survival followed a similar pattern. Postoperative survival among patients with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) improved significantly (5-year survival, 42.5% vs 75.3% among patients born in 1990-2002 vs 2003-2015; p<0.0001), but not among non-HLHS patients (65.7% vs 72.6%; p=0.22)-among whom several subgroups had a poor prognosis similar to HLHS. A total of 291/595 patients (48.9%) had Fontan surgery CONCLUSIONS: Surgery was refrained in one quarter of the patients, among whom almost all died shortly after birth. Long-term prognosis was largely determined during the first 2 years. There was a strong concordance between preoperative and postoperative survival. HLHS survival was improved, but non-HLHS survival did not change significantly. This study demonstrates the complications and outcomes encountering newborns with UVH at all major stages of preoperative and operative treatment.

Middle-Aged and Older Patients With Left Ventricular Hypertrophy: Higher Mortality With Drug Treated Systolic Blood Pressure Below 130 mm Hg.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of people with hypertension have left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) detected by ECG or echocardiography. Because patients with LVH have poor myocardial microcirculation, they may be too sensitive to lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) too much due to a lack of myocardial perfusion pressure. We aimed to investigate whether the average achieved SBP <130 mm Hg may cause harm in patients with LVH in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-Term Use Evaluation trial (VALUE). METHODS: Of the 15 245 VALUE participants, we identified 13 803 patients without cardiovascular events during the first 6 months after randomization. Of these, 2458 patients had electrocardiographic LVH (ECG-LVH). Cox analyses adjusted for age, gender, and baseline variables compared cardiac and all-cause mortality and other prespecified end points for patients who achieved average SBP 130 to 139 mm Hg (No-LVH group n=4863; ECG-LVH group n=929) and <130 mm Hg (No-LVH group n=2107; ECG-LVH group n=305). Reference groups were patients who achieved average SBP ≥140 mm Hg following the first excluded 6 months (No-LVH group n=4375; ECG-LVH group n=1224). RESULTS: The No-LVH group achieving average SBP <130 mm Hg had a significantly lower incidence of several cardiovascular end points. The ECG-LVH group achieving average SBP <130 mm Hg had higher cardiac mortality (hazard ratio, 1.98 [95% CIs, 1.06-3.70]; P=0.032) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CIs, 1.17-2.60]; P=0.007), and SBP <130 mm Hg was not associated with a reduction in any end point. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings may be seen as a signal that caution is warranted when treating middle-aged and older patients with electrocardiographic or echocardiographic LVH to SBP <130 mm Hg.

Transvenous lead extractions in a single high-volume center over a 24-year period: High success rate and low complication rate.

Background: Transvenous lead extraction (TLE) procedures can be complicated and are associated with a small but significant risk of cardiovascular complications. However, methods and tools vary among centers. Objective: The purpose of this study was to the present the methods and results of pacemaker and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator TLE procedures in our center over a 24-year period. Methods: From April 1997 through 2020, we attempted to extract 2964 leads in 1780 procedures and 1642 patients. We mainly utilized single sheath technique using snaring or mechanical rotational sheaths and steel sheaths when necessary. Difficult procedures were performed by an experienced cardiologist, and close supervision was emphasized. Most of the extractions were performed using local anesthesia with sedation. Results: Median age of patients was 65.0 [interquartile range 20.00] years, and median dwelling time of leads was 5.0 [7.0] years. Clinical success was achieved in 1739 procedures (97.7%) and complete technical success in 2841 leads (95.8%). Clinical success (leaving <4 cm of the lead in the body and achieving the clinical goal for the patient) was achieved for 79 leads (2.7%). TLE failed in 44 leads (1.1%) and 41 procedures (2.3%) among 36 patients (2.2%). There were 23 cases (1.3%) of major complications, with only 1 death directly related to the procedure (<0.1%). In addition, 2 patients with sepsis died within the first 24 hours after the procedure. No caval tears occurred. Conclusion: Single sheath lead extractions utilizing snaring or mechanical rotational sheaths were effective and safe in our high-volume center as performed by experienced operators.

The Geriatric Prognostic Index: a clinical prediction model for survival of older diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with standard immunochemotherapy.

The International prognostic Index (IPI) is the most widely used clinical prediction model for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (R-CHOP), but may be suboptimal in older patients. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model for older, RCHOP- treated DLBCL patients by examining geriatric assessment and lymphoma-related parameters in real-world cohorts. A population-based training set of 365 R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients ≥70 years was identified through the Cancer Registry of Norway. The external test set consisted of a population-based cohort of 193 patients. Data on candidate predictors were retrieved from the Cancer Registry and through review of clinical records. Cox regression models for 2-year overall survival were used for model selection. Activities of daily living, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, age, sex, albumin, stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and lactate dehydrogenase level were identified as independent predictors and combined into a Geriatric Prognostic Index (GPI). The GPI demonstrated good discrimination (optimismcorrected C-index 0.752), and identified low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups with significantly different survivals (2- year overall survival, 94%, 65%, and 25%, respectively). At external validation, the continuous and grouped GPI demonstrated good discrimination (C-index 0.727 and 0.710, respectively) and the GPI groups had significantly different survivals (2-year overall survival 95%, 65%, and 44%, respectively). Both the continuous and grouped GPI showed better discrimination than the IPI, revised-IPI and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-IPI (C-index 0.621, 0.583, and 0.670, respectively). In conclusion, we have developed and externally validated a GPI for older DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP that outperformed the IPI, revised-IPI and NCCN-IPI. A web-based calculator is available at https://wide.shinyapps. io/GPIcalculator/.

PHLPP1 regulates CFTR activity and lumen expansion through AMPK.

Complex organ development depends on single lumen formation and its expansion during tubulogenesis. This can be achieved by correct mitotic spindle orientation during cell division, combined with luminal fluid filling that generates hydrostatic pressure. Using a human 3D cell culture model, we have identified two regulators of these processes. We find that pleckstrin homology leucine-rich repeat protein phosphatase (PHLPP) 2 regulates mitotic spindle orientation, and thereby midbody positioning and maintenance of a single lumen. Silencing the sole PHLPP family phosphatase in Drosophila melanogaster, phlpp, resulted in defective spindle orientation in Drosophila neuroblasts. Importantly, cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) is the main channel regulating fluid transport in this system, stimulated by phosphorylation by protein kinase A and inhibited by the AMP-activated protein kinase AMPK. During lumen expansion, CFTR remains open through the action of PHLPP1, which stops activated AMPK from inhibiting ion transport through CFTR. In the absence of PHLPP1, the restraint on AMPK activity is lost and this tips the balance in the favour of channel closing, resulting in the lack of lumen expansion and accumulation of mucus.

A clinical decision support system optimising adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancers by integrating deep learning and pathological staging markers: a development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: The DoMore-v1-CRC marker was recently developed using deep learning and conventional haematoxylin and eosin-stained tissue sections, and was observed to outperform established molecular and morphological markers of patient outcome after primary colorectal cancer resection. The aim of the present study was to develop a clinical decision support system based on DoMore-v1-CRC and pathological staging markers to facilitate individualised selection of adjuvant treatment. METHODS: We estimated cancer-specific survival in subgroups formed by pathological tumour stage (pT<4 or pT4), pathological nodal stage (pN0, pN1, or pN2), number of lymph nodes sampled (≤12 or >12) if not pN2, and DoMore-v1-CRC classification (good, uncertain, or poor prognosis) in 997 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer considered to have no residual tumour (R0) from two community-based cohorts in Norway and the UK, and used these data to define three risk groups. An external cohort of 1075 patients with stage II or III R0 colorectal cancer from the QUASAR 2 trial was used for validation; these patients were treated with single-agent capecitabine. The proposed risk stratification system was evaluated using Cox regression analysis. We similarly evaluated a risk stratification system intended to reflect current guidelines and clinical practice. The primary outcome was cancer-specific survival. FINDINGS: The new risk stratification system provided a hazard ratio of 10·71 (95% CI 6·39-17·93; p<0·0001) for high-risk versus low-risk patients and 3·06 (1·73-5·42; p=0·0001) for intermediate versus low risk in the primary analysis of the validation cohort. Estimated 3-year cancer-specific survival was 97·2% (95% CI 95·1-98·4; n=445 [41%]) for the low-risk group, 94·8% (91·7-96·7; n=339 [32%]) for the intermediate-risk group, and 77·6% (72·1-82·1; n=291 [27%]) for the high-risk group. The guideline-based risk grouping was observed to be less prognostic and informative (the low-risk group comprised only 142 [13%] of the 1075 patients). INTERPRETATION: Integrating DoMore-v1-CRC and pathological staging markers provided a clinical decision support system that risk stratifies more accurately than its constituent elements, and identifies substantially more patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer with similarly good prognosis as the low-risk group in current guidelines. Avoiding adjuvant chemotherapy in these patients might be safe, and could reduce morbidity, mortality, and treatment costs. FUNDING: The Research Council of Norway.

The Oslo Ischaemia Study: cohort profile.

PURPOSE: The Oslo Ischaemia Study was designed to investigate the prevalence and predictors of silent coronary disease in Norwegian middle-aged men, specifically validating exercise electrocardiography (ECG) findings compared with angiography. The study has been important in investigating long-term predictors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, as well as investigating a broad spectrum of epidemiological and public health perspectives. PARTICIPANTS: In 1972-1975, 2014 healthy men, 40-59 years old, were enrolled in the study. Comprehensive clinical examination included an ECG-monitored exercise test at baseline and follow-ups. The cohort has been re-examined four times during 20 years. Linkage to health records and national health registries has ensured complete endpoint registration of morbidity until the end of 2006, and cancer and mortality until the end of 2017. FINDINGS TO DATE: The early study results provided new evidence, as many participants with a positive exercise ECG, but no chest pain ('silent ischaemia'), did not have significant coronary artery stenosis after all. Still, they were over-represented with coronary disease after years of follow-up. Furthermore, participants with the highest physical fitness had lower risk of cardiovascular disease, and the magnitude of blood pressure responses to moderate exercise was shown to influence the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. With time, follow-up data allowed the scope of research to expand into other fields of medicine, with the aim of investigating predictors and the importance of lifestyle and risk factors. FUTURE PLANS: Recently, the Oslo Ischaemia Study has been found worthy, as the first scientific study, to be preserved by The National Archives of Norway. All the study material will be digitised, free to use and accessible for all. In 2030, the Oslo Ischaemia Study will be linked to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry to obtain complete follow-up to death. Thus, a broad spectrum of additional opportunities opens.

A simplified frailty score predicts survival and can aid treatment-intensity decisions in older patients with DLBCL.

Patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) have a median age of 70 years. Yet, empirical knowledge about the treatment of older patients is limited because they are frequently excluded from clinical trials. We aimed to construct a simplified frailty score and examine survival and treatment-related mortality (TRM) according to frailty status and treatment intensity in an older real-world population with DLBCL. All patients aged ≥70 years diagnosed with DLBCL between 2006 and 2016 in southeastern Norway (N = 784) were included retrospectively and divided into training (n = 522) and validation (n = 262) cohorts. We constructed and validated a frailty score based on geriatric assessment variables and examined survival and TRM according to frailty status and treatment. The frailty score identified 3 frailty groups with distinct survival and TRM, independent of established prognostic factors (2-year overall survival [OS]: fit, 82%; unfit, 47%; frail, 14%; P < .001). For fit patients, full-dose R-CHOP (initial dosage >80%) was associated with better survival than attenuated R-CHOP ([R-miniCHOP]; 2-year OS: 86% vs 70%; P = .012), also in adjusted analyses. For unfit and frail patients, full-dose R-CHOP was not superior to R-miniCHOP, whereas an anthracycline-free regimen was associated with poorer survival in adjusted analyses. A simplified frailty score identified unfit and frail patients with a higher risk for death and TRM, which can aid treatment-intensity decisions in older patients with DLBCL. In this study, fit patients benefited from full-dose R-CHOP, whereas unfit and frail patients had no benefit from full-dose R-CHOP over R-miniCHOP. An online calculator for assessment of the frailty score is available at https://wide.shinyapps.io/app-frailty/.

Detection of Nonadherence to Antihypertensive Treatment by Measurements of Serum Drug Concentrations.

[Figure: see text].

Novel insights into stroke risk beyond resting and maximal bicycle exercise systolic blood pressure.

OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown an association between moderate workload exercise blood pressure (BP) and coronary disease, whereas maximal exercise BP is associated with stroke. We aimed to investigate the association between the increase in BP during maximal exercise and the long-term risk of stroke in healthy, middle-aged men. METHODS: Two thousand and fourteen men were included in the Oslo Ischemia Study in the 1970s. In the present study, we examined baseline data of the 1392 participants who remained healthy and performed bicycle exercise tests both at baseline and 7 years later. Cox proportional hazard was used to assess the risk of stroke in participants divided into quartiles based on the difference between resting and maximal workload SBP (ΔSBP) at baseline, adjusting for resting BP, age, smoking, serum cholesterol and physical fitness. Follow-up was until the first ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke through 35 years. RESULTS: There were 195 incident strokes; 174 (89%) were ischemic. In univariate analyses, there were significant positive correlations between age, resting SBP, resting DBP and SBP at moderate and maximal workload, and risk of stroke. In the multivariate analysis, there was a 2.6-fold (P < 0.0001) increase in risk of stroke in ΔSBP quartile 4 (ΔSBP > 99 mmHg) compared with ΔSBP quartile 2 (ΔSBP 73-85 mmHg), which had the lowest risk of stroke. ΔSBP quartile 1 had a 1.7-fold (P = 0.02) increased risk compared with quartile 2, suggesting a J-shaped association to stroke risk. CONCLUSION: Stroke risk increased with increasing difference between resting and maximal exercise SBP, independent of BP at rest, suggesting that an exaggerated BP response to physical exercise may be an independent predictor of stroke.

Designing deep learning studies in cancer diagnostics.

The number of publications on deep learning for cancer diagnostics is rapidly increasing, and systems are frequently claimed to perform comparable with or better than clinicians. However, few systems have yet demonstrated real-world medical utility. In this Perspective, we discuss reasons for the moderate progress and describe remedies designed to facilitate transition to the clinic. Recent, presumably influential, deep learning studies in cancer diagnostics, of which the vast majority used images as input to the system, are evaluated to reveal the status of the field. By manipulating real data, we then exemplify that much and varied training data facilitate the generalizability of neural networks and thus the ability to use them clinically. To reduce the risk of biased performance estimation of deep learning systems, we advocate evaluation in external cohorts and strongly advise that the planned analyses, including a predefined primary analysis, are described in a protocol preferentially stored in an online repository. Recommended protocol items should be established for the field, and we present our suggestions.

Ten-year prediction of cardiovascular disease in healthy Norwegian men, based on NORRISK-2. / Tiårsprediksjon av hjerte- og karsykdom hos friske norske menn basert på NORRISK-2.

BACKGROUND: Norwegian guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease recommend the use of the NORRISK-2 risk model, with some additions. We wished to investigate whether NORRISK-2 could predict cardiovascular disease in healthy Norwegian men who took part in the Oslo Ischaemia Study. MATERIAL: NORRISK-2 scores were calculated for 2 014 men in the age group 40-60 years who were included in the Oslo Ischaemia Study in 1972-75. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the hazard ratio for death and cardiovascular disease within ten years of the participants' initial assessment. RESULTS: No participant was lost to follow-up of the 2 014 men, 125 died in the first ten years after inclusion, 61 of whom died from cardiovascular disease. Those who died were older than those who survived, with a larger proportion of daily smokers, and they had higher systolic blood pressure and resting pulse, increased total cholesterol and lower physical fitness. The majority of those who died from acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke within ten years were classified in the high-risk group in NORRISK-2. INTERPRETATION: NORRISK-2 satisfactorily identified the high-risk persons in this cohort of healthy, middle-aged Norwegian men. This supports use of the Norwegian guidelines in the decision on possible primary protection against cardiovascular disease.

Patients with high-risk DLBCL benefit from dose-dense immunochemotherapy combined with early systemic CNS prophylaxis.

Survival of patients with high-risk diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is suboptimal, and the risk of central nervous system (CNS) progression is relatively high. We conducted a phase 2 trial in 139 patients aged 18 to 64 years who had primary DLBCL with an age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (aaIPI) score of 2 to 3 or site-specific risk factors for CNS recurrence. The goal was to assess whether a dose-dense immunochemotherapy with early systemic CNS prophylaxis improves the outcome and reduces the incidence of CNS events. Treatment consisted of 2 courses of high-dose methotrexate in combination with biweekly rituximab (R), cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP-14), followed by 4 courses of R-CHOP-14 with etoposide (R-CHOEP) and 1 course of high-dose cytarabine with R. In addition, liposomal cytarabine was administered intrathecally at courses 1, 3, and 5. Coprimary endpoints were failure-free survival and CNS progression rates. Thirty-six (26%) patients experienced treatment failure. Progression occurred in 23 (16%) patients, including three (2.2%) CNS events. At 5 years of median follow-up, failure-free survival, overall survival, and CNS progression rates were 74%, 83%, and 2.3%, respectively. Treatment reduced the risk of progression compared with our previous trial, in which systemic CNS prophylaxis was given after 6 courses of biweekly R-CHOEP (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.31-0.77; P = .002) and overcame the adverse impact of an aaIPI score of 3 on survival. In addition, outcome of the patients with BCL2/MYC double-hit lymphomas was comparable to the patients without the rearrangements. The results are encouraging, with a low toxic death rate, low number of CNS events, and favorable survival rates. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01325194.

Blood Pressure-Lowering Profiles and Clinical Effects of Angiotensin Receptor Blockers Versus Calcium Channel Blockers.

Blood pressure-lowering drugs have different blood pressure-lowering profiles. We studied if differences in blood pressure mean and variability can explain the differences in risks of cardiovascular events and death among 15 245 high-risk hypertensive patients randomized to valsartan or amlodipine and followed for 4.2 years in the VALUE trial (Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-Term Use Evaluation). We selected patients with ≥3 visits and performed Cox regression analyses, defining mean blood pressure as a time-dependent covariate and visit-to-visit and within-visit blood pressure variability as the SD. Of 14 996 eligible patients, participants in the valsartan group had higher systolic mean blood pressure by 2.2 mm Hg, higher visit-to-visit systolic variability by 1.4 mm Hg, and higher within-visit systolic variability by 0.2 mm Hg (P values <0.0001). The higher risks of myocardial infarction and stroke in the valsartan group was attenuated after adjustment for mean and variability of systolic blood pressure, from HR 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.39) to 1.11 (0.96-1.30) and from HR 1.13 (0.96-1.33) to 1.00 (0.85-1.18), respectively. The lower risk of congestive heart failure in the valsartan group was accentuated after adjustment, from HR 0.86 (0.74-1.00) to 0.76 (0.65-0.89). A smaller effect was seen on risk of death, from 1.01 (0.92-1.12) to 0.94 (0.85-1.04). In conclusion, the higher risks of myocardial infarction and stroke in patients randomized to valsartan versus amlodipine were related to the drugs' different blood pressure modulating profiles. The risk of congestive heart failure with valsartan was lower, independent of the less favorable blood pressure modulating profile.

Change in Body Weight and Long-Term Risk of Stroke and Death in Healthy Men.

Background and Purpose- The importance of weight change for the risk of stroke is not well known. We examined the associations between early- and mid-life weight change and risks of stroke and death during long-term follow-up of healthy men. Methods- We recruited healthy men aged between 40 and 59 years and performed a cardiovascular examination at baseline and again at 7 years. We collected data on weight change since the age of 25 (early-life weight change) and measured weight change from baseline to the visit at 7 years (mid-life weight change). For both weight change periods, participants were divided into the following categories: weight loss, weight gain 0 to 4.9 kg, weight gain 5 to 9.9 kg, and weight gain ≥10 kg. Data on stroke and death were collected up to 35 years, from study visits, hospital records, and the National Cause of Death Registry. We used Cox regression to analyze the associations between weight change during early-life and mid-life and risks of stroke and death. Results- Of the 2014 participants, 2014 (100%) had data on early-life weight change and were followed for a median of 30.1 years, while 1403 had data on mid-life weight change and were followed for a median of 24.6 years. During early-life, compared with those who had weight gain 0 to 4.9 kg, hazard ratio for stroke was 1.46 (95% CI, 1.09-1.95) among those with weight gain 5 to 9.9 kg, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.03-1.87) for those with weight gain ≥10 kg, and 1.46 (95% CI, 0.99-2.11) among those with weight loss. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios were 1.08 (95% CI, 0.92-1.23), 1.14 (95% CI, 0.98-1.33), and 1.29 (95% CI, 1.06-1.56), respectively. During mid-life, there were no significant differences in risk of stroke or death between the groups. Conclusions- Weight increase during early-life, but not mid-life, seems to be associated with increased long-term risk of stroke in healthy men. If these findings can be confirmed, efforts to prevent weight increase should target the younger population.

DNA copy number motifs are strong and independent predictors of survival in breast cancer.

Somatic copy number alterations are a frequent sign of genome instability in cancer. A precise characterization of the genome architecture would reveal underlying instability mechanisms and provide an instrument for outcome prediction and treatment guidance. Here we show that the local spatial behavior of copy number profiles conveys important information about this architecture. Six filters were defined to characterize regional traits in copy number profiles, and the resulting Copy Aberration Regional Mapping Analysis (CARMA) algorithm was applied to tumors in four breast cancer cohorts (n = 2919). The derived motifs represent a layer of information that complements established molecular classifications of breast cancer. A score reflecting presence or absence of motifs provided a highly significant independent prognostic predictor. Results were consistent between cohorts. The nonsite-specific occurrence of the detected patterns suggests that CARMA captures underlying replication and repair defects and could have a future potential in treatment stratification.

Deep learning for prediction of colorectal cancer outcome: a discovery and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Improved markers of prognosis are needed to stratify patients with early-stage colorectal cancer to refine selection of adjuvant therapy. The aim of the present study was to develop a biomarker of patient outcome after primary colorectal cancer resection by directly analysing scanned conventional haematoxylin and eosin stained sections using deep learning. METHODS: More than 12 000 000 image tiles from patients with a distinctly good or poor disease outcome from four cohorts were used to train a total of ten convolutional neural networks, purpose-built for classifying supersized heterogeneous images. A prognostic biomarker integrating the ten networks was determined using patients with a non-distinct outcome. The marker was tested on 920 patients with slides prepared in the UK, and then independently validated according to a predefined protocol in 1122 patients treated with single-agent capecitabine using slides prepared in Norway. All cohorts included only patients with resectable tumours, and a formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumour tissue block available for analysis. The primary outcome was cancer-specific survival. FINDINGS: 828 patients from four cohorts had a distinct outcome and were used as a training cohort to obtain clear ground truth. 1645 patients had a non-distinct outcome and were used for tuning. The biomarker provided a hazard ratio for poor versus good prognosis of 3·84 (95% CI 2·72-5·43; p<0·0001) in the primary analysis of the validation cohort, and 3·04 (2·07-4·47; p<0·0001) after adjusting for established prognostic markers significant in univariable analyses of the same cohort, which were pN stage, pT stage, lymphatic invasion, and venous vascular invasion. INTERPRETATION: A clinically useful prognostic marker was developed using deep learning allied to digital scanning of conventional haematoxylin and eosin stained tumour tissue sections. The assay has been extensively evaluated in large, independent patient populations, correlates with and outperforms established molecular and morphological prognostic markers, and gives consistent results across tumour and nodal stage. The biomarker stratified stage II and III patients into sufficiently distinct prognostic groups that potentially could be used to guide selection of adjuvant treatment by avoiding therapy in very low risk groups and identifying patients who would benefit from more intensive treatment regimes. FUNDING: The Research Council of Norway.