A cautionary tale about using the apparent carbon accumulation rate (aCAR) obtained from peat cores.

The carbon (C) accumulation histories of peatlands are of great interest to scientists, land users and policy makers. Because peatlands contain more than 500 billion tonnes of C, an understanding of the fate of this dynamic store, when subjected to the pressures of land use or climate change, is an important part of climate-change mitigation strategies. Information from peat cores is often used to recreate a peatland's C accumulation history from recent decades to past millennia, so that comparisons between past and current rates can be made. However, these present day observations of peatlands' past C accumulation rates (known as the apparent rate of C accumulation - aCAR) are usually different from the actual uptake or loss of C that occurred at the time (the true C balance). Here we use a simple peatland model and a more detailed ecosystem model to illustrate why aCAR should not be used to compare past and current C accumulation rates. Instead, we propose that data from peat cores are used with existing or new C balance models to produce reliable estimates of how peatland C function has changed over time.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Carbon storage dynamics in peatlands: Comparing recent- and long-term accumulation histories in southern Patagonia.

Peatlands have been important terrestrial carbon (C) reservoirs throughout the Holocene, yet whether these ecosystems will become stronger or weaker C sinks in the future remains debated. While surface peat layers (acrotelm) have a greater apparent rate of C accumulation than deeper, millennial-aged peat (catotelm), it is difficult to project how much more aerobic decomposition will take place before the younger surface cohorts join the older deeper ones. Studies have suggested that warming could lead to weakened C accumulation in peatlands due to enhanced aerobic decay in the acrotelm, which would lead to a slower transfer of peat into the catotelm, if any. Conversely, other studies have suggested increased C accumulation in the acrotelm and thus, larger long-term C transfer into the catotelm under warming conditions because of greater plant productivity and faster peat accumulation. Improving our predictions about the rate of present and future peatland development is important to forecast feedbacks on the global C cycle and help inform land management decisions. In this study, we analyzed two peat cores from southern Patagonia to calculate their long- versus short-peat C accumulation rates. The acrotelm rates were compared to the catotelm peat C legacies using an empirical modeling approach that allows calculating the future catotelm peat storage based on today's acrotelm characteristics, and thus predict if those recent rates of C accumulation will lead to greater or weaker long-term C storage in the future. Our results indicate that, depending on local bioclimatic parameters, some peatlands may become stronger C sinks in the future, while others may become weaker. In the case of this study, the wetter site is expected to increase its C sink capacity, while our prediction for the drier site is a net decrease in C sequestration in the coming decades to centuries.

Widespread global peatland establishment and persistence over the last 130,000 y.

Glacial-interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (>40°N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.

Networking our science to characterize the state, vulnerabilities, and management opportunities of soil organic matter.

Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest.

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a 'warm LIA' climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest.

Peatland Ecosystem Processes in the Maritime Antarctic During Warm Climates.

We discovered a 50-cm-thick peat deposit near Cape Rasmussen (65.2°S), in the maritime Antarctic. To our knowledge, while aerobic 'moss banks' have often been examined, waterlogged 'peatlands' have never been described in this region before. The waterlogged system is approximately 100 m2, with a shallow water table. Surface vegetation is dominated by Warnstorfia fontinaliopsis, a wet-adapted moss commonly found in the Antarctic Peninsula. Peat inception was dated at 2750 cal. BP and was followed by relatively rapid peat accumulation (~0.1 cm/year) until 2150 cal. BP. Our multi-proxy analysis then shows a 2000-year-long stratigraphic hiatus as well as the recent resurgence of peat accumulation, sometime after 1950 AD. The existence of a thriving peatland at 2700-2150 cal. BP implies regionally warm summer conditions extending beyond the mid-Holocene; this finding is corroborated by many regional records showing moss bank initiation and decreased sea ice extent during this time period. Recent peatland recovery at the study site (<50 years ago) might have been triggered by ongoing rapid warming, as the area is experiencing climatic conditions approaching those found on milder, peatland-rich sub-Antarctic islands (50-60°S). Assuming that colonization opportunities and stabilization mechanisms would allow peat to persist in Antarctica, our results suggest that longer and warmer growing seasons in the maritime Antarctic region may promote a more peatland-rich landscape in the future.

Recent peat accumulation rates in minerotrophic peatlands of the Bay James region, Eastern Canada, inferred by 210Pb and 137Cs radiometric techniques.

(210)Pb and (137)Cs dating techniques are used to characterise recent peat accumulation rates of two minerotrophic peatlands located in the La Grande Rivière hydrological watershed, in the James Bay region (Canada). Several cores were collected during the summer 2005 in different parts of the two selected peatlands. These minerotrophic patterned peatlands are presently affected by erosion processes, expressed by progressive mechanical destruction of their pools borders. This erosion process is related to a water table rise induced by a regional increase of humidity since the last century. The main objective of the present paper is to (1) evaluate if (210)Pb and (137)Cs dating techniques can be applied to build accurate chronologies in these environments and (2) detect changes in the peat accumulation rates in regard to this amplification of humidity. In both sites, unsupported (210)Pb shows an exponential decreasing according to the depth. Chronologies inferred from (210)Pb allow to reconstruct peat accumulation rates since ca. 1855 AD. The (137)Cs data displayed evident mobility and diffusion, preventing the establishment of any sustained chronology based on these measurements. In the two sites, peat accumulation rates inferred from (210)Pb chronologies fluctuate between 0.005 and 0.038 g cm(-2) yr(-1). As a result, the rise of the water table during the last decade has not yet affected peat accumulation rates.