Postoperative outcomes after receipt of ertapenem antimicrobial prophylaxis for colon surgery: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate postoperative outcomes among patients undergoing colon surgery who receive perioperative prophylaxis with ertapenem compared to other antibiotic regimens. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicenter retrospective cohort study among adults undergoing colon surgery in seven hospitals across three health systems from 1/1/2010 to 9/1/2015. METHODS: Generalized linear mixed logistic regression models were applied to assess differential odds of select outcomes among patients who received perioperative prophylaxis with ertapenem compared to other regimens. Postoperative outcomes of interest included surgical site infection (SSI), Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) and clinical culture positivity for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteraciae (CRE). Inverse probability weights were applied to account for differing covariate distributions across ertapenem and non-ertapenem groups. RESULTS: A total of 2,109 patients were included for analysis. The odds of postoperative SSI was 1.56 times higher among individuals who received ertapenem than among those receiving other perioperative antimicrobial prophylaxis regimens in our cohort (46 [3.5%] vs 20 [2.5%]; IPW-weighted OR 1.56, [95% CI, 1.08-2.26], P = .02). No statistically significant differences in odds of postoperative CDI (24 [1.8%] vs 16 [2.0%]; IPW-weighted OR 1.07 [95% CI, .68-1.68], P = .78) were observed between patients who received ertapenem prophylaxis compared to other regimens. Clinical CRE culture positivity was rare in both groups (.2%-.5%) and did not differ statistically. CONCLUSIONS: Ertapenem use for perioperative prophylaxis was associated with increased odds of SSI among patients undergoing colon surgery in our study population, though no differences in CDI or clinical CRE culture positivity were identified. Further study and replication of these findings are needed.

RECOVER-NEURO: study protocol for a multi-center, multi-arm, phase 2, randomized, active comparator trial evaluating three interventions for cognitive dysfunction in post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC).

BACKGROUND: Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) symptoms have broad impact, and may affect individuals regardless of COVID-19 severity, socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, or age. A prominent PASC symptom is cognitive dysfunction, colloquially referred to as "brain fog" and characterized by declines in short-term memory, attention, and concentration. Cognitive dysfunction can severely impair quality of life by impairing daily functional skills and preventing timely return to work. METHODS: RECOVER-NEURO is a prospective, multi-center, multi-arm, phase 2, randomized, active-comparator design investigating 3 interventions: (1) BrainHQ is an interactive, online cognitive training program; (2) PASC-Cognitive Recovery is a cognitive rehabilitation program specifically designed to target frequently reported challenges among individuals with brain fog; (3) transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive form of mild electrical brain stimulation. The interventions will be combined to establish 5 arms: (1) BrainHQ; (2) BrainHQ + PASC-Cognitive Recovery; (3) BrainHQ + tDCS-active; (4) BrainHQ + tDCS-sham; and (5) Active Comparator. The interventions will occur for 10 weeks. Assessments will be completed at baseline and at the end of intervention and will include cognitive testing and patient-reported surveys. All study activities can be delivered in Spanish and English. DISCUSSION: This study is designed to test whether cognitive dysfunction symptoms can be alleviated by the use of pragmatic and established interventions with different mechanisms of action and with prior evidence of improving cognitive function in patients with neurocognitive disorder. If successful, results will provide beneficial treatments for PASC-related cognitive dysfunction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05965739. Registered on July 25, 2023.

IL-6 inhibition with clazakizumab in patients receiving maintenance dialysis: a randomized phase 2b trial.

Inflammation mediated by interleukin-6 (IL-6) is strongly associated with cardiovascular risk. Here we evaluated clazakizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6 ligand, in a phase 2b dose-finding study. Adults with cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes receiving maintenance dialysis with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) ≥ 2 mg l-1 at baseline were randomized to receive clazakizumab (2.5 mg, 5 mg or 10 mg, n = 32 per dose group) or placebo (n = 31) every 4 weeks. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline in hs-CRP to week 12, expressed as the geometric mean ratio. Clazakizumab treatment signficantly reduced serum hs-CRP concentrations at week 12 by 86%, 90% and 92% relative to placebo in patients randomized to 2.5 mg, 5 mg or 10 mg clazakizumab, respectively (all P < 0.0001), meeting the primary outcome. With regard to secondary endpoints, clazakizumab treatment reduced serum fibrinogen, amyloid A, secretory phospholipase A2, and lipoprotein(a) concentrations, as well as increased mean serum albumin concentrations at 12 weeks, relative to placebo. The proportion of patients who achieved hs-CRP < 2.0 mg l-1 was 79%, 82% and 79% in the 2.5 mg, 5 mg and 10 mg clazakizumab groups, respectively, compared with 0% of placebo-treated patients. With regard to safety, no cases of sustained grade 3 or 4 thrombocytopenia or neutropenia were observed. Serious infections were seen with similar frequency in the placebo, clazakizumab 2.5 mg and clazakizumab 5 mg groups, but were numerically more frequent in the clazakizumab 10 mg group. The results of this trial indicate that in patients receiving maintenance dialysis, clazakizumab reduced inflammatory biomarkers associated with cardiovascular events. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05485961 .

Are the cardiovascular properties of GLP-1 receptor agonists differentially modulated by sulfonylureas? Insights from post-hoc analysis of EXSCEL.

AIMS: To examine whether the cardiovascular effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists are attenuated by concurrent sulfonylurea (SU) therapy in a post-hoc analysis of the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). METHODS: We investigated whether SUs, as a class or by specific type, modulated the effects of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes in intent-to-treat analyses of all trial participants, categorized as SU users or nonusers. Marginal structural models were used to evaluate whether there were differential EQW effects by SU category on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), depending on duration of SU use (6, 12, and 18 months). EQW-by-SU type interaction p-values and hazard ratios (95 % CIs) for EQW versus placebo for each baseline SU type (glibenclamide, gliclazide, glimepiride, other SUs) were calculated. RESULTS: Neither SU use nor baseline SU type modified the effect of EQW on time to MACE (pinteraction = 0.88 and 0.78, respectively), nor did individual SU types, including glibenclamide (a systemically wide-acting SU). CONCLUSIONS: SUs did not modulate the effect of EQW on cardiovascular outcomes, suggesting that SU treatment choices need not be altered to optimize the cardiovascular effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists in people with type 2 diabetes.

Baseline characteristics including blood and urine metal levels in the Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy 2 (TACT2).

BACKGROUND: The reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) events with edetate disodium (EDTA) in the Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT) suggested that chelation of toxic metals might provide novel opportunities to reduce CVD in patients with diabetes. Lead and cadmium are vasculotoxic metals chelated by EDTA. We present baseline characteristics for participants in TACT2, a randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled trial designed as a replication of the TACT trial limited to patients with diabetes. METHODS: TACT2 enrolled 1,000 participants with diabetes and prior myocardial infarction, age 50 years or older between September 2016 and December 2020. Among 959 participants with at least one infusion, 933 had blood and/or urine metals measured at the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention using the same methodology as in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We compared metal levels in TACT2 to a contemporaneous subset of NHANES participants with CVD, diabetes and other inclusion criteria similar to TACT2's participants. RESULTS: At baseline, the median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 67 (60, 72) years, 27% were women, 78% reported white race, mean (SD) BMI was 32.7 (6.6) kg/m2, 4% reported type 1 diabetes, 46.8% were treated with insulin, 22.3% with GLP1-receptor agonists or SGLT-2 inhibitors, 90.2% with aspirin, warfarin or P2Y12 inhibitors, and 86.5% with statins. Blood lead was detectable in all participants; median (IQR) was 9.19 (6.30, 13.9) µg/L. Blood and urine cadmium were detectable in 97% and median (IQR) levels were 0.28 (0.18, 0.43) µg/L and 0.30 (0.18, 0.51) µg/g creatinine, respectively. Metal levels were largely similar to those in the contemporaneous NHANES subset. CONCLUSIONS: TACT2 participants were characterized by high use of medication to treat CVD and diabetes and similar baseline metal levels as in the general US population. TACT2 will determine whether chelation therapy reduces the occurrence of subsequent CVD events in this high-risk population. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier: NCT02733185. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02733185.

Sex Differences in Branched-chain Amino Acid and Tryptophan Metabolism and Pathogenesis of Youth-onset Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: Insulin resistance is associated with elevations in plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs). BCAAs compete with aromatic amino acids including tryptophan for uptake into ß cells. To explore relationships between BCAAs and tryptophan metabolism, adiposity, and glucose tolerance, we compared urine metabolites in overweight/obese youth with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with those in nondiabetic overweight/obese and lean youth. METHODS: Metabolites were measured in 24-hour and first-morning urine samples of 56 nondiabetic adolescents with overweight/obesity, 42 adolescents with T2D, and 43 lean controls, aged 12 to 21 years. Group differences were assessed by Kruskal Wallis or ANOVA. RESULTS: Groups were comparable for age, pubertal status, and ethnicity. Youth with T2D were predominantly female and had highest percent body fat. BCAAs, branched-chain ketoacids (BCKAs), tryptophan, and kynurenine were higher in urine of subjects with T2D. There were no differences between lean controls and nondiabetic youth with overweight/obesity. T2D was associated with diversion of tryptophan from the serotonin to the kynurenine pathway, with higher urinary kynurenine/serotonin ratio and lower serotonin/tryptophan and 5-HIAA/kynurenine ratios. Urinary BCAAs, BCKAs, tryptophan, and ratios reflecting diversion to the kynurenine pathway correlated positively with metrics of body fat and hemoglobin A1c. Increases in these metabolites in the obese T2D group were more pronounced and statistically significant only in adolescent girls. CONCLUSION: Increases in urinary BCAAs and BCKAs in adolescent females with T2D are accompanied by diversion of tryptophan metabolism from the serotonin to the kynurenine pathway. These adaptations associate with higher risks of T2D in obese adolescent females than adolescent males.

Catabolism of fats and branched-chain amino acids in children with Type 1 diabetes: Association with glycaemic control and total daily insulin dose.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperglycaemia in Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from an absolute insulin deficiency. However, insulin resistance (IR) may exacerbate glycaemic instability in T1D and contribute to long-term cardiovascular complications. We previously showed that IR in teenagers with obesity is associated with sex-dependent derangements in the catabolism of branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) and fatty acids. Here we hypothesized that byproducts of BCAA and fatty acid metabolism may serve as biomarkers or determinants of glycaemic control and IR in prepubertal or early pubertal children with T1D. METHODS: Metabolites, hormones and cytokines from fasting blood samples were analysed in 28 children (15 females, 13 males; age 6-11 years) with T1D. Principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression models were used to correlate metabolites of interest with glycaemic control, total daily insulin dose (TDD, units/kg/d), adiponectin and the triglyceride (TG) to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio. RESULTS: Males and females were comparable in age, BMI-z, insulin sensitivity, glycaemic control, inflammatory markers, BCAAs and C2/C3/C5-acylcarnitines. The majority of components retained in PCA were related to fatty acid oxidation (FAO) and BCAA catabolism. HbA1c correlated positively with Factor 2 (acylcarnitines, incomplete FAO) and Factor 9 (fasting glucose). TDD correlated negatively with C3 and C5 and Factor 10 (BCAA catabolism) and positively with the ratio of C2 to C3 + C5 and Factor 9 (fasting glucose). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that glucose intolerance in prepubertal or early pubertal children with T1D is accompanied by incomplete FAO while TDD is associated with preferential catabolism of fats relative to amino acids.

Time-dependent event accumulation in a cardiovascular outcome trial of patients with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). METHODS: Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes. RESULTS: Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205.

Effects of Long-Term Sertraline Use on Pediatric Growth and Development: The Sertraline Pediatric Registry for The Evaluation of Safety (SPRITES).

Objective: To describe the results of the Sertraline Pediatric Registry for The Evaluation of Safety (SPRITES) outcome measures of cognitive, emotional, and physical development following long-term treatment with sertraline (for up to 3 years) in children and adolescents aged 6-16 years. Methods: SPRITES was a long-term, multicenter, open-label, prospective observational study designed to compare physical and psychological development in pediatric patients exposed to sertraline (with or without psychotherapy) or psychotherapy alone in usual care settings. Data were summarized descriptively, and outcomes were evaluated using a marginal structural model. Results: Between April 2012 and September 2020, 941 patients across 44 U.S. sites participated in the study. At baseline, 695 participants were exposed to sertraline (physician prescribed) with or without psychotherapy, and 245 participants were exposed to psychotherapy alone. Of these, 432 participants (46.0%) completed the full 3-year study follow-up. No significant changes across time were found in standardized height, BRIEF (Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function), Trails B, and Tanner stage based on cumulative sertraline exposure or exposure since the last visit. Change in mean standardized weight across time was positively associated with both cumulative sertraline exposure (p = 0.02) and exposure since the last visit (p = 0.029). The mean changes from baseline across time in standardized weight were standard deviations of 0.02, 0.03, 0.16, and 0.17 at months 3, 6, 30, and 36, respectively. However, this finding was not observed in the mean change across time in standardized body mass index, which was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Results are consistent with normal development. Although a statistically significant finding for standardized weight was observed in comparative analyses, the magnitude of the change is small and observed at higher doses of sertraline only. No other significant differences were observed between the "sertraline" group and the "no pharmacological therapy" group on other primary outcome measures. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01302080.

Sex differences in the complications, care and clinical outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

AIM: To examine sex differences in the characteristics and outcomes in participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD), randomized to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) or placebo in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Baseline characteristics were summarized and compared by sex. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for clinical outcomes, including the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular (CV) death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke (MACE3). Models including sex-by-treatment interaction were used to evaluate differences in effects of EQW. RESULTS: Overall, 5603 women and 9149 men were followed for a median of 3.2 years. Women were younger (mean 61.4 vs. 62.2 years, P < .001) and had a shorter duration of diabetes (mean 12.9 vs. 13.2 years, P = .039) and less coronary artery disease (35.2% vs. 61.0%, P < .001) than men, but also a less favourable metabolic risk profile and lower use of cardioprotective medications. MACE3 occurred in 9.1% of women and 13.5% of men, corresponding to 2.82 versus 4.40 events/100 participant-years (adjusted hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.93, P = .003). There was no difference in MACE3 with EQW compared with placebo, or evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect by sex. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of a large population of individuals with T2D, with or without established CVD, identified between-sex differences in clinical characteristics and care. Despite having worse management of CV risk factors, women had significantly lower rates of important CV events not attributable to the effects of study treatment.

Evaluation of an Opt-Out Protocol for Antibiotic De-Escalation in Patients With Suspected Sepsis: A Multicenter, Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis guidelines recommend daily review to de-escalate or stop antibiotics in appropriate patients. This randomized, controlled trial evaluated an opt-out protocol to decrease unnecessary antibiotics in patients with suspected sepsis. METHODS: We evaluated non-intensive care adults on broad-spectrum antibiotics despite negative blood cultures at 10 US hospitals from September 2018 through May 2020. A 23-item safety check excluded patients with ongoing signs of systemic infection, concerning or inadequate microbiologic data, or high-risk conditions. Eligible patients were randomized to the opt-out protocol vs usual care. Primary outcome was post-enrollment antibacterial days of therapy (DOT). Clinicians caring for intervention patients were contacted to encourage antibiotic discontinuation using opt-out language. If continued, clinicians discussed the rationale for continuing antibiotics and de-escalation plans. To evaluate those with zero post-enrollment DOT, hurdle models provided 2 measures: odds ratio of antibiotic continuation and ratio of mean DOT among those who continued antibiotics. RESULTS: Among 9606 patients screened, 767 (8%) were enrolled. Intervention patients had 32% lower odds of antibiotic continuation (79% vs 84%; odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], .47-.98). DOT among those who continued antibiotics were similar (ratio of means, 1.06; 95% CI, .88-1.26). Fewer intervention patients were exposed to extended-spectrum antibiotics (36% vs 44%). Common reasons for continuing antibiotics were treatment of localized infection (76%) and belief that stopping antibiotics was unsafe (31%). Thirty-day safety events were similar. CONCLUSIONS: An antibiotic opt-out protocol that targeted patients with suspected sepsis resulted in more antibiotic discontinuations, similar DOT when antibiotics were continued, and no evidence of harm. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03517007.

The Disproportionate Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Healthcare-Associated Infections in Community Hospitals: Need for Expanding the Infectious Disease Workforce.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had a considerable impact on US healthcare systems, straining hospital resources, staff, and operations. However, a comprehensive assessment of the impact on healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) across different hospitals with varying level of infectious disease (ID) physician expertise, resources, and infrastructure is lacking. METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal multicenter cohort study included central-line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs), Clostridioides difficile infections (CDIs), and ventilator-associated events (VAEs) from 53 hospitals (academic and community) in Southeastern United States from 1 January 2018 to 31 March 2021. Segmented negative binomial regression generalized estimating equations models estimated changes in monthly incidence rates in the baseline (01/2018-02/2020) compared to the pandemic period (03/2020-03/2021, further divided into three pandemic phases). RESULTS: CLABSIs and VAEs increased by 24% and 34%, respectively, during the pandemic period. VAEs increased in all phases of the pandemic, while CLABSIs increased in later phases of the pandemic. CDI trend increased by 4.2% per month in the pandemic period. On stratifying the analysis by hospital characteristics, the impact of the pandemic on healthcare-associated infections was more significant in smaller sized and community hospitals. CAUTIs did not change significantly during the pandemic across all hospital types. CONCLUSIONS: CLABSIs, VAEs, and CDIs increased significantly during the pandemic, especially in smaller community hospitals, most of which lack ID physician expertise. Future efforts should focus on better understanding challenges faced by community hospitals, strengthening the infection prevention infrastructure, and expanding the ID workforce, particularly to community hospitals.

Early recognition and response to increases in surgical site infections using optimised statistical process control charts-The early 2RIS trial: A multicentre stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial.

Background: Traditional approaches for surgical site infection (SSI) surveillance have deficiencies that delay detection of SSI outbreaks and other clinically important increases in SSI rates. We investigated whether use of optimised statistical process control (SPC) methods and feedback for SSI surveillance would decrease rates of SSI in a network of US community hospitals. Methods: We conducted a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial of patients who underwent any of 13 types of common surgical procedures across 29 community hospitals in the Southeastern United States. We divided the 13 procedures into six clusters; a cluster of procedures at a single hospital was the unit of randomisation and analysis. In total, 105 clusters were randomised to 12 groups of 8-10 clusters. All participating clusters began the trial in a 12-month baseline period of control or "traditional" SSI surveillance, including prospective analysis of SSI rates and consultative support for SSI outbreaks and investigations. Thereafter, a group of clusters transitioned from control to intervention surveillance every three months until all clusters received the intervention. Electronic randomisation by the study statistician determined the sequence by which clusters crossed over from control to intervention surveillance. The intervention was the addition of weekly application of optimised SPC methods and feedback to existing traditional SSI surveillance methods. Epidemiologists were blinded to hospital identity and randomisation status while adjudicating SPC signals of increased SSI rates, but blinding was not possible during SSI investigations. The primary outcome was the overall SSI prevalence rate (PR=SSIs/100 procedures), evaluated via generalised estimating equations with a Poisson regression model. Secondary outcomes compared traditional and optimised SPC signals that identified SSI rate increases, including the number of formal SSI investigations generated and deficiencies identified in best practices for SSI prevention. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03075813. Findings: Between Mar 1, 2016, and Feb 29, 2020, 204,233 unique patients underwent 237,704 surgical procedures. 148,365 procedures received traditional SSI surveillance and feedback alone, and 89,339 procedures additionally received the intervention of optimised SPC surveillance. The primary outcome of SSI was assessed for all procedures performed within participating clusters. SSIs occurred after 1171 procedures assigned control surveillance (prevalence rate [PR] 0.79 per 100 procedures), compared to 781 procedures that received the intervention (PR 0·87 per 100 procedures; model-based PR ratio 1.10, 95% CI 0.94-1.30, p=0.25). Traditional surveillance generated 24 formal SSI investigations that identified 120 SSIs with deficiencies in two or more perioperative best practices for SSI prevention. In comparison, optimised SPC surveillance generated 74 formal investigations that identified 458 SSIs with multiple best practice deficiencies. Interpretation: The addition of optimised SPC methods and feedback to traditional methods for SSI surveillance led to greater detection of important SSI rate increases and best practice deficiencies but did not decrease SSI rates. Additional research is needed to determine how to best utilise SPC methods and feedback to improve adherence to SSI quality measures and prevent SSIs. Funding: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Development and validation of a model to predict cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Among individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is common and confers increased risk for morbidity and mortality. Differentiating risk is key to optimize efficiency of treatment selection. Our objective was to develop and validate a model to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) comprising the first event of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke for individuals with both T2DM and ASCVD. METHODS: Using data from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), we used Cox proportional hazards models to predict MACE among participants with T2DM and ASCVD. All baseline covariates collected in the trial were considered for inclusion, although some were excluded immediately because of large missingness or collinearity. A full model was developed using stepwise selection in each of 25 imputed datasets, and comprised candidate variables selected in 20 of the 25 datasets. A parsimonious model with a maximum of 10 degrees of freedom was created using Cox models with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), where the adjusted R-square was used as criterion for selection. The model was then externally validated among a cohort of participants with similar criteria in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial. Discrimination of both models was assessed using Harrell's C-index and model calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino statistic based on 4-year event rates. RESULTS: Overall, 1491 (10.2%) of 14,671 participants in TECOS and 130 (9.3%) in the ACCORD validation cohort (n = 1404) had MACE over 3 years' median follow-up. The final model included 9 characteristics (prior stroke, age, chronic kidney disease, prior MI, sex, heart failure, insulin use, atrial fibrillation, and microvascular complications). The model had moderate discrimination in both the internal and external validation samples (C-index = 0.65 and 0.61, respectively). The model was well calibrated across the risk spectrum-from a cumulative MACE rate of 6% at 4 years in the lowest risk quintile to 26% in the highest risk quintile. CONCLUSION: Among patients with T2DM and prevalent ASCVD, this 9-factor risk model can quantify the risk of future ASCVD complications and inform decision making for treatments and intensity.

Validation of the WATCH-DM and TRS-HFDM Risk Scores to Predict the Risk of Incident Hospitalization for Heart Failure Among Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Multicohort Analysis.

Background The WATCH-DM (weight [body mass index], age, hypertension, creatinine, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes control [fasting plasma glucose], ECG QRS duration, myocardial infarction, and coronary artery bypass grafting) and TRS-HFDM (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] risk score for heart failure in diabetes) risk scores were developed to predict risk of heart failure (HF) among individuals with type 2 diabetes. WATCH-DM was developed to predict incident HF, whereas TRS-HFDM predicts HF hospitalization among patients with and without a prior HF history. We evaluated the model performance of both scores to predict incident HF events among patients with type 2 diabetes and no history of HF hospitalization across different cohorts and clinical settings with varying baseline risk. Methods and Results Incident HF risk was estimated by the integer-based WATCH-DM and TRS-HFDM scores in participants with type 2 diabetes free of baseline HF from 2 randomized clinical trials (TECOS [Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes With Sitagliptin], N=12 028; and Look AHEAD [Look Action for Health in Diabetes] trial, N=4867). The integer-based WATCH-DM score was also validated in electronic health record data from a single large health care system (N=7475). Model discrimination was assessed by the Harrell concordance index and calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino statistic. HF incidence rate was 7.5, 3.9, and 4.1 per 1000 person-years in the TECOS, Look AHEAD trial, and electronic health record cohorts, respectively. Integer-based WATCH-DM and TRS-HFDM scores had similar discrimination and calibration for predicting 5-year HF risk in the Look AHEAD trial cohort (concordance indexes=0.70; Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P>0.30 for both). Both scores had lower discrimination and underpredicted HF risk in the TECOS cohort (concordance indexes=0.65 and 0.66, respectively; Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P<0.001 for both). In the electronic health record cohort, the integer-based WATCH-DM score demonstrated a concordance index of 0.73 with adequate calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P=0.96). TRS-HFDM score could not be validated in the electronic health record because of unavailability of data on urine albumin/creatinine ratio in most patients in the contemporary clinical practice. Conclusions The WATCH-DM and TRS-HFDM risk scores can discriminate risk of HF among intermediate-risk populations with type 2 diabetes.

Effect of race on cardiometabolic responses to once-weekly exenatide: insights from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

BACKGROUND: To determine whether there were racial differences in short-term cardiometabolic responses to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). METHODS: EXSCEL enrolled 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes (hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 6.5-10.0% [48-86 mmol/mol]) with or without cardiovascular disease who were randomized double-blind to EQW or placebo. Background glucose-lowering/other cardiovascular therapies were unaltered for 6 months post-randomization unless clinically essential, facilitating comparison of EQW-associated effects in 14,665 evaluable participants self-identifying as White (n = 11,113), Asian (n = 1444), Black (n = 870), or Other Race (n = 1,238. Placebo-adjusted 6 month absolute changes in cardiometabolic variables were assessed using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Mean 6-month placebo-adjusted HbA1c reductions were similar in the four groups (range 0.54-0.67% [5.9 to 7.3 mmol/mol], P = 0.11 for race×treatment interaction), with no significant difference in Asians (reference) versus other groups after covariate adjustment (all P ≥ 0.10). Six-month placebo-adjusted mean changes in systolic (-1.8 to 0.0 mmHg) and diastolic (0.2 to 1.2 mmHg) blood pressure, serum LDL (- 0.06 to 0.02 mmol/L) and HDL (0.00 to 0.01 mmol/L) cholesterol, and serum triglycerides (-0.1 to 0.0 mmol/L) were similar in the racial groups (P ≥ 0.19 for race×treatment interaction and all P ≥ 0.13 for comparisons of Asians with other races). Resting pulse rate increased more in Asians (4 beats/min) than in other groups (≤ 3 beats/min, P = 0.016 for race×treatment interaction and all P ≤ 0.050 for comparisons of Asians with other races). CONCLUSIONS: Short-term cardiometabolic responses to EQW were similar in the main racial groups in EXSCEL, apart from a greater pulse rate increase in Asians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov NCT01144338.

Cardiovascular Events and Long-Term Risk of Sudden Death Among Stabilized Patients After Acute Coronary Syndrome: Insights From IMPROVE-IT.

Background Unlike patients with low ejection fraction after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS), little is known about the long-term incidence and influence of cardiovascular events before sudden death among stabilized patients after ACS. Methods and Results A total of 18 144 patients stabilized within 10 days after ACS in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial) were studied. Cumulative incidence rates (IRs) and IRs per 100 patient-years of sudden death were calculated. Using Cox proportional hazards, the association of ≥1 additional postrandomization cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure) with sudden death was examined. Early (≤1 year after ACS) and late sudden deaths (>1 year) were compared. Of 2446 total deaths, 402 (16%) were sudden. The median time to sudden death was 2.7 years, with 109 early and 293 late sudden deaths. The cumulative IR was 2.47% (95% CI, 2.23%-2.73%) at 7 years of follow-up. The risk of sudden death following a postrandomization cardiovascular event (150/402 [37%] sudden deaths; median 1.4 years) was greater (IR/100 patient-years, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.23-1.69]) than the risk with no postrandomization cardiovascular event (IR/100 patient-years, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.24-0.30]). Postrandomization myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR], 3.64 [95% CI, 2.85-4.66]) and heart failure (HR, 4.55 [95% CI, 3.33-6.22]) significantly increased future risk of sudden death. Conclusions Patients stabilized within 10 days of an ACS remain at long-term risk of sudden death with the greatest risk in those with an additional cardiovascular event. These results refine the long-term risk and risk effectors of sudden death, which may help clinicians identify opportunities to improve care. Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00202878.