Identifying efficient linkage strategies for men (IDEaL): a study protocol for an individually randomised control trial.

INTRODUCTION: Men in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely than women to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and more likely to have longer cycles of disengagement from ART programmes. Treatment interventions that meet the unique needs of men are needed, but they must be scalable. We will test the impact of various interventions on 6-month retention in ART programmes among men living with HIV who are not currently engaged in care (never initiated ART and ART clients with treatment interruption). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a programmatic, individually randomised, non-blinded, controlled trial. 'Non-engaged' men will be randomised 1:1:1 to either a low-intensity, high-intensity or stepped arm. The low-intensity intervention includes one-time male-specific counseling+facility navigation only. The high-intensity intervention offers immediate outside-facility ART initiation+male-specific counselling+facility navigation for follow-up ART visits. In the stepped arm, intervention activities build in intensity over time for those who do not re-engage in care with the following steps: (1) one-time male-specific counselling+facility navigation→(2) ongoing male mentorship+facility navigation→(3) outside-facility ART initiation+male-specific counselling+facility navigation for follow-up ART visits. Our primary outcome is 6-month retention in care. Secondary outcomes include cost-effectiveness and rates of adverse events. The primary analysis will be intention to treat with all eligible men in the denominator and all men retained in care at 6 months in the numerator. The proportions achieving the primary outcome will be compared with a risk ratio, corresponding 95% CI and p value computed using binomial regression accounting for clustering at facility level. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Institutional Review Board of the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Health Sciences Research Council in Malawi have approved the trial protocol. Findings will be disseminated rapidly in national and international forums and in peer-reviewed journals and are expected to provide urgently needed information to other countries and donors. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05137210. DATE AND VERSION: 5 May 2023; version 3.

A modelling framework for translating discrete choice experiment results into cost-effectiveness estimates: an application to designing tailored and scalable HIV and contraceptive services for adolescents in Gauteng, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South African youth and adolescents face a high burden of (Sexually Transmitted Infections) STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancies, but uptake of services remains low. To address this, tailored and scalable interventions are urgently needed. We developed a framework to fill the gap and translate the impact of facility-level attributes into a cost-effectiveness analysis for increasing HIV/contraceptive service uptake in adolescents using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS: We used a DCE (n = 805) conducted in Gauteng, South Africa, which found that staff attitude, confidentiality, Wi-Fi, subsidized food, afternoon hours and youth-only services were preferred attributes of health services. Based on this, we simulated the uptake of services adapted for these preferences. We divided preferences into modifiable attributes that could readily be adapted (e.g. Wi-Fi), and challenging to modify (more nuanced attributes that are more challenging to cost and evaluate): staff attitude and estimated the incremental change in the uptake of services using adapted services. Costs for modifiable preferences were estimated using data from two clinics in South Africa (2019 US$). We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for additional adolescents using services of 15 intervention combinations, and report the results of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier. RESULTS: Greatest projected impact on uptake was from friendly and confidential services, both of which were considered challenging to modify (18.5% 95% CI: 13.0%-24.0%; 8.4% 95% CI: 3.0%-14.0%, respectively). Modifiable factors on their own resulted in only small increases in expected uptake. (Food: 2.3% 95% CI: 4.0%-9.00%; Wi-Fi: 3.0% 95% CI: -4.0% to 10.0%; Youth-only services: 0.3% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%; Afternoon services: 0.8% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%). The order of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier are Wi-Fi and youth-only services (ICER US$7.01-US$9.78 per additional adolescent utilizing HIV and contraceptive services), Wi-Fi, youth-only services and food (ICER US$9.32-US$10.45), followed by Wi-Fi, youth-only services and extended afternoon hours (ICER US$14.46-US$43.63). CONCLUSIONS: Combining DCE results and costing analyses within a modelling framework provides an innovative way to inform decisions on effective resource utilization. Modifiable preferences, such as Wi-Fi provision, youth-only services and subsidized food, have the potential to cost-effectively increase the proportion of adolescents accessing HIV and contraceptive services.

A cost description of the setup costs of community-owned maternity waiting homes in rural Zambia.

Maternity waiting homes (MWHs) are one strategy to improve access to skilled obstetric care in low resource settings such as Zambia. The Maternity Homes Access in Zambia project built 10 MWHs at rural health centers in Zambia for women awaiting delivery and postnatal care (PNC) visits. The objective of this paper is to summarize the costs associated with setup of 10 MWHs, including infrastructure, furnishing, stakeholder engagement, and activities to build the capacity of local communities to govern MWHs. We do not present operational costs after setup was complete. We used a retrospective, top-down program costing approach. We reviewed study documentation to compile planned and actual costs by site. All costs were annuitized using a 3% discount rate and organized by cost categories: (1) Capital: infrastructure and furnishing, and (2) Installation: capacity building activities and stakeholder engagement. We assumed lifespans of 30 years for infrastructure; 5 years for furnishings; and 3 years for installation activities. Annuitized costs were used to estimate cost per night stayed and per visit for delivery and PNC-related stays. We also modeled theoretical utilization and cost scenarios. The average setup cost of one MWH was $85,284 (capital: 76%; installation: 24%). Annuitized setup cost per MWH was USD$12,516 per year. At an observed occupancy rate of 39%, setup cost per visit to the MWH was USD$70, while setup cost per night stayed was USD$6. The cost of stakeholder engagement activities was underbudgeted by half at the beginning of this project.This analysis serves as a planning resource for governments and implementers that are considering MWHs as a component of their overall maternal and child health strategy. Planning considerations should include the annuitized cost, value of capacity building and stakeholder engagement, and that cost per bed night and visit are dependent upon utilization.

Study protocol: A randomised trial of the effectiveness of the Common Elements Treatment Approach (CETA) for improving HIV treatment outcomes among women experiencing intimate partner violence in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a barrier to consistent HIV treatment in South Africa. Previous trials have established that the Common Elements Treatment Approach (CETA), a cognitive-behavioural-based intervention, is effective in reducing mental and behavioural health problems but has not been trialled for effectiveness in improving HIV outcomes. This paper describes the protocol for a randomised trial that is testing the effectiveness of CETA in improving HIV treatment outcomes among women experiencing IPV in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are conducting a randomised trial among HIV-infected women on antiretroviral therapy, who have experienced sexual and/or physical IPV, to test the effect of CETA on increasing retention and viral suppression and reducing IPV. Women living with HIV who have an unsuppressed viral load or are at high risk for poor adherence and report experiencing recent IPV, defined as at least once within in the last 12 months, will be recruited from HIV clinics and randomised 1:1 to receive CETA or an active attention control (text message reminders). All participants will be followed for 24 months. Follow-up HIV data will be collected passively using routinely collected medical records. HIV outcomes will be assessed at 12 and 24 months post-baseline. Questionnaires on violence, substance use and mental health will be administered at baseline, post-CETA completion and at 12 months post-baseline. Our primary outcome is retention and viral suppression (<50 copies/mL) by 12 months post-baseline. We will include 400 women which will give us 80% power to detect an absolute 21% difference between arms. Our primary analysis will be an intention-to-treat comparison of intervention and control by risk differences with 95% CIs. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval provided by University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical), Boston University Institutional Review Board and Johns Hopkins School Institutional Review Board. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04242992.

Similar costs and outcomes for differentiated service delivery models for HIV treatment in Uganda.

This cost-outcome study estimated, from the perspective of the service provider, the total annual cost per client on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and total annual cost per client virally suppressed (defined as < 1000 copies/ml at the time of the study) in Uganda in five ART differentiated service delivery models (DSDMs). These included both facility- and community-based models and the standard of care (SOC), known as the facility-based individual management (FBIM) model. The Ministry of Health (MOH) adopted guidelines for DSDMs in 2017 and sought to measure their costs and outcomes, in order to effectively plan for their resourcing, implementation, and scale-up. In Uganda, the standard of care (FBIM) is considered as a DSDM option for clients requiring specialized treatment and support, or for those who select not to join an alternative DSDM. Note that clients on second-line regimes and considered as "established on treatment" can join a suitable DSDM.Using retrospective client record review of a cohort of clients over a two-year period, with bottom-up collection of clients' resource utilization data, top-down collection of above-delivery level and delivery-level providers' fixed operational costs, and local unit costs. Forty-seven DSDMs located at facilities or community-based points in the four regions of Uganda were included in the study, with 653 adults on ART (> 18 years old) enrolled in a DSDM. The study found that retention in care was 98% for the sample as a whole [96-100%], and viral suppression, 91% [86-93%]. The mean cost to the provider (MOH or NGO implementers) was $152 per annum per client treated, ranging from $141 to $166. Differences among the models' costs were largely due to clients' ARV regimens and the proportions of clients on second line regimens. Service delivery costs, excluding ARVs, other medicines and laboratory tests, were modest, ranging from $9.66-16.43 per client per year. We conclude that differentiated ART service delivery in Uganda achieved excellent treatment outcomes at a cost similar to the standard of care. While large budgetary savings might not be immediately realized, the reallocation of "saved" staff time could improve health system efficiency and with their equivalent or better outcomes and large benefits to clients, client-centred differentiated models would nevertheless add great societal value.

The early-stage comprehensive costs of routine PrEP implementation and scale-up in Zambia.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models. Taking a guidelines-based approach for visits, labs and drugs, we estimated the annual cost of providing PrEP per client for five delivery models: one focused on key populations (men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW), one on adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three integrated programs (operated within HIV counselling and testing services at primary healthcare centres). Program start-up and support costs were based on program expenditure data and number of PrEP sites and clients in 2018. PrEP clinic visit costs were based on micro-costing at two PrEP delivery sites (2018 USD). Costs are presented in 2018 prices and inflated to 2021 prices. The annual cost/PrEP client varied by service delivery model, from $394 (AGYW) to $655 (integrated model). Cost differences were driven largely by client volume, which impacted the relative costs of program support and technical assistance assigned to each PrEP client. Direct service delivery costs ranged narrowly from $205-212/PrEP-client and were a key component in the cost of PrEP, representing 35-65% of total costs. The results show that, even when integrated into full service delivery models, accessing vulnerable, marginalised populations at substantial risk of HIV infection is likely to cost more than previously estimated due to the programmatic costs involved in community sensitization and client support. Improved data on individual client resource usage and outcomes is required to get a better understanding of the true resource utilization, expected outcomes and annual costs of different PrEP service delivery programs in Zambia.

Getting resources to those who need them: the evidence we need to budget for underserved populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, many countries have adopted evidence-based budgeting (EBB) to encourage the best use of limited and decreasing HIV resources. The lack of data and evidence for hard to reach, marginalized and vulnerable populations could cause EBB to further disadvantage those who are already underserved and who carry a disproportionate HIV burden (USDB). We outline the critical data required to use EBB to support USDB people in the context of the generalized epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DISCUSSION: To be considered in an EBB cycle, an intervention needs at a minimum to have an estimate of a) the average cost, typically per recipient of the intervention; b) the effectiveness of the intervention and c) the size of the intervention target population. The methods commonly used for general populations are not sufficient for generating valid estimates for USDB populations. USDB populations may require additional resources to learn about, access, and/or successfully participate in an intervention, increasing the cost per recipient. USDB populations may experience different health outcomes and/or other benefits than in general populations, influencing the effectiveness of the interventions. Finally, USDB population size estimation is critical for accurate programming but is difficult to obtain with almost no national estimates for countries in SSA. We explain these limitations and make recommendations for addressing them. CONCLUSIONS: EBB is a strong tool to achieve efficient allocation of resources, but in SSA the evidence necessary for USDB populations may be lacking. Rather than excluding USDB populations from the budgeting process, more should be invested in understanding the needs of these populations.

Fast-track treatment initiation counselling in South Africa: A cost-outcomes analysis.

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, under its new National Adherence Guidelines (AGL), South Africa formalized an existing model of fast-track HIV treatment initiation counselling (FTIC). Rollout of the AGL included an evaluation study at 24 clinics, with staggered AGL implementation. Using routinely collected data extracted as part of the evaluation study, we estimated and compared the costs of HIV care and treatment from the provider's perspective at the 12 clinics implementing the new, formalized model (AGL-FTIC) to costs at the 12 clinics continuing to implement some earlier, less formalized, model that likely varied across clinics (denoted here as early-FTIC). METHODS: This was a cost-outcome analysis using standard methods and a composite outcome defined as initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 30 days of treatment eligibility and retained in care at 9 months. Using patient-level, bottom-up resource-utilization data and local unit costs, we estimated patient-level costs of care and treatment in 2017 U.S. dollars over the 9-month evaluation follow-up period for the two models of care. Resource use and costs, disaggregated by antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests, and clinic visits, are reported by model of care and stratified by the composite outcome. RESULTS: A total of 350/343 patients in the early-FTIC/AGL-FTIC models of care are included in this analysis. Mean/median costs were similar for both models of care ($135/$153 for early-FTIC, $130/$151 for AGL-FTIC). For the subset achieving the composite outcome, resource use and therefore mean/median costs were similar but slightly higher, reflecting care consistent with treatment guidelines ($163/$166 for early-FTIC, $168/$170 for AGL-FTIC). Not surprisingly, costs for patients not achieving the composite outcome were substantially less, mainly because they only had two or fewer follow-up visits and, therefore, received substantially less ART than patients who achieved the composite outcome. CONCLUSION: The 2016 adherence guidelines clarified expectations for the content and timing of adherence counseling sessions in relation to ART initiation. Because clinics were already initiating patients on ART quickly by 2016, little room existed for the new model of fast-track initiation counseling to reduce the number of pre-ART clinic visits at the study sites and therefore to reduce costs of care and treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trial Number: NCT02536768.

Community-based delivery of HIV treatment in Zambia: costs and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The aim is to determine the total annual cost per patient treated and total cost per patient retained on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia in conventional care in facilities and across community-based differentiated service delivery (DSD) models. DESIGN: Economic evaluation was conducted using retrospective electronic record review.Twenty healthcare facilities (13 with DSD models and 7 as comparison sites) in six of Zambia's 10 provinces were considered. METHODS: All individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) >18 years old at the study sites were enrolled in a DSD model or conventional care by site type, respectively, with at least 12 months of follow-up data. Accessing care through DSD models [community adherence groups (CAGs), urban adherence groups (UAGs), home ART delivery and care, and mobile ART services] or facility-based conventional care with 3-monthly visits. Total annual cost per patient treated and the annual cost per patient retained in care 12 months after model enrolment. Retention in care was defined as attending a clinic visit at 12 months ± 3 months. RESULTS: The DSD models assessed cost more per patient/year than conventional care. Costs ranged from an annual $116 to $199 for the DSD models, compared with $100 for conventional care. CAGs and UAGs increased retention by 2 and 14%, respectively. All DSD models cost more per patient retained at 12 months than conventional care. The CAG had the lowest cost/patient retained for DSD models ($140-157). CONCLUSIONS: Although they achieve equal or improved retention in care, out-of-facility models of ART were more expensive than conventional care.

Economic evaluation of facility-based HIV self-testing among adult outpatients in Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: HIV self-testing (HIVST) in outpatient departments (OPD) is a promising strategy for HIV testing in Malawi, given high OPD patient volumes and substantial wait times. To evaluate the relative cost and expected impact of facility-based HIVST (FB-HIVST) at OPDs in Malawi for increasing HIV status awareness, we conducted an economic evaluation of an HIVST cluster-randomized controlled trial. METHODS: A cluster-randomized trial was conducted at 15 sites in Malawi from September 2017 to February 2018 with three arms: 1) Standard provider-initiated-testing-and-counselling (PITC); 2) Optimized PITC (additional provider training and job-aids) and 3) FB-HIVST (HIVST demonstration, distribution and kit use in OPD, private kit interpretation and optional HIV counselling). The total production cost per newly identified positive and per person newly initiated on ART were calculated by study arm. These were calculated as the total cost of testing everyone divided by the number of newly identified positives; and the total cost of testing everyone divided by the number of those initiated on ART. Cost-outcomes were calculated under three cost scenarios: (1) full study costs, (2) routine implementation costs and (3) routine implementation + reduced cost for HIVST kits. RESULTS: The average cost per person newly diagnosed in the full study cost scenario was $101, $156 and $189, and cost per person initiated on ART was $121, $156 and $279 for Standard PITC, Optimized PITC and FB-HIVST respectively. In the routine implementation cost scenario, the average cost per person newly diagnosed was reduced to $83, and $93, and cost per person initiated on ART to $83, and $137 for Optimized PITC and FB-HIVST respectively. In the negotiated HIVST cost scenario, the average cost per person newly diagnosed was reduced to $55 and cost per person newly initiated on ART reduced to $81 in the FB-HIVST arm. CONCLUSIONS: While the cost per new ART initiation through FB-HIVST was higher than Standard PITC, FB-HIVST could become cost-saving compared to PITC if the cost of kits is reduced or if treatment linkage rate were increased in the FB-HIVST arm. For high volume OPDs, HIVST may increase facility capacity and increase the number of newly diagnosed positives.

Will differentiated care for stable HIV patients reduce healthcare systems costs?

INTRODUCTION: South Africa's National Department of Health launched the National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases in 2015. These guidelines include adherence clubs (AC) and decentralized medication delivery (DMD) as two differentiated models of care for stable HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. While the adherence guidelines do not suggest that provider costs (costs to the healthcare system for medications, laboratory tests and visits to clinics or alternative locations) for stable patients in these differentiated models of care will be lower than conventional, clinic-based care, recent modelling exercises suggest that such differentiated models could substantially reduce provider costs. In the context of continued implementation of the guidelines, we discuss the conditions under which provider costs of care for stable HIV patients could fall, or rise, with AC and DMD models of care in South Africa. DISCUSSION: In prior studies of HIV care and treatment costs, three main cost categories are antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests and general interaction costs based on encounters with health workers. Stable patients are likely to be on the national first-line regimen (Tenofovir/Entricitabine/Efavarinz (TDF/FTC/EFV)), so no difference in the costs of medications is expected. Laboratory testing guidelines for stable patients are the same regardless of the model of care, so no difference in laboratory costs is expected as well. Based on existing information regarding the costs of clinic visits, AC visits and DMD drug pickups, we expect that for some clinics, visit costs for DMD or AC models of care could be less, but modestly so, than for conventional, clinic-based care. For other clinics, however, DMD or AC models could have higher visit costs (see Table 2). CONCLUSIONS: The standard of care for stable patients has already been "differentiated" for years in South Africa, prior to the roll out of the new adherence guidelines. AC and DMD models of care, when implemented as envisioned in the guidelines, are unlikely to generate substantive reductions or increases in provider costs of care.

Impact of the test and treat policy on delays in antiretroviral therapy initiation among adult HIV positive patients from six clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa: results from a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess delays to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation before and after the Universal Test and Treat (UTT) and the same-day initiation (SDI) of ART policy periods in Johannesburg, South Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Patients were recruited from six primary health clinics in Johannesburg. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 1029 newly diagnosed HIV positive adults (≥18 years) were consecutively enrolled by referral from the testing counsellor between April and December 2015 (pre-UTT n=146), July and August 2017 (UTT, n=141) and October 2017 and August 2018 (SDI, n=742). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess predictors of 30 days ART initiation. Additionally, predictors of immediate ART initiation were evaluated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 30 days ART proportions were 71.9% overall, 36.9% pre-UTT (44.3% of those eligible), 65.9% under UTT and 79.9% under the SDI policy. The median days to ART initiation declined from 21 pre-UTT (IQR: 15-30) to 8 (IQR: 6-16) under UTT and 5 days (IQR: 0-8) under the SDI policy. However, only 150 (20.2%) of the SDI cohort-initiated ART immediately after HIV diagnosis. Living in a two-adult home (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.2 vs living alone, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.5) increased the likelihood of 30-day ART. Missing baseline cluster of differentiation four (CD4) data decreased the likelihood of 30 days ART by 40% (aHR 0.6 vs CD4 <350 cells/µL, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7). More women took up immediate ART (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9). Participants ≥40 years (aRR 0.6 vs 18-24 years, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.9) were less likely to start ART immediately after HIV diagnosis. However, immediate ART rates increased with longer policy implementation time (aRR 0.2 for <3 months vs >10 months, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: The study results highlight a positive move towards earlier ART initiation during the UTT and SDI periods and emphasise a need to increase same-day ART implementation further.

Using a Self-Administered Electronic Adherence Questionnaire to Identify Poor Adherence Amongst Adolescents and Young Adults on First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Johannesburg, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The best method to measure adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings has not yet been established, particularly among adolescents and young adults (AYAs). The use of mobile technology may address the need for standardized tools in measuring adherence in this often marginalized population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional validation study among AYAs (18-35 years) attending a South African HIV clinic between 07/2015-09/2017. We determine the diagnostic accuracy of two modes of delivering an adherence questionnaire (self-administered electronic vs interviewer-administered paper-adherence questionnaire) comprising two self-reported adherence tools (South African National Department of Health (NDoH) adherence questionnaire and the Simplified Medication Adherence Questionnaire (SMAQ)) to identify poor adherence compared to; 1) a detectable viral load (≥1000 copies/mL) and 2) a sub-optimal concentration of efavirenz (EFV) (EFV ≤1.00 µg/mL) measured by therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). RESULTS: Of 278 included participants, 7.1% and 7.3% completing the electronic- and paper-questionnaires had a detectable viral load, while 14.7% and 16.5% had a sub-optimal concentration of EFV, respectively. According to viral load monitoring, the electronic-adherence questionnaire had a higher sensitivity (Se) in detecting poor adherence than the paper-based version across the NDoH adherence questionnaire (Se: 63.6% vs 33.3%) and SMAQ (Se: 90.9% vs 66.7%). In contrast, when using blood drug concentration (EFV ≤1.00 µg/mL), the paper-adherence questionnaire produced a higher sensitivity across both adherence tools; namely the NDoH adherence questionnaire (Se: 50.0% vs 38.1%) and SMAQ (Se: 75.0% vs 57.1%). CONCLUSION: When using more accurate real-time measures of poor adherence such as TDM in this young adult population, we observe a higher sensitivity of an interviewer-administered paper-adherence questionnaire than an identical set of self-administered adherence questions on an electronic tablet. An interviewer-administered questionnaire may elicit more accurate responses from participants through a sense of increased accountability when engaging with health care workers.

Urban forest fragments buffer trees from warming and pests.

Trees are important components of urban landscapes because of the ecosystem services they provide. However, the effects of urbanization, particularly high temperatures, can benefit chronic insect pests and threaten ecosystem services offered by urban trees. Urban forest fragments are an often-overlooked component of the greater urban forest which may help to mitigate the damaging effects of urbanization. Melanaspis tenebricosa (gloomy scale) is a common pest of Acer rubrum (red maple) that becomes more abundant because of the urban heat island effect. We conducted observational and manipulative field experiments to test the hypothesis that trees in urban forest fragments would be cooler than those in surrounding ornamental landscapes and would thus have fewer M. tenebricosa, particularly in a hot mid-latitude city. Trees in forest fragments were 1.3° cooler and had three orders of magnitude fewer M. tenebricosa than trees in ornamental landscapes in Raleigh, NC USA. However, there was no difference in M. tenebricosa density between forest and landscape trees in Newark, DE and Philadelphia, PA USA which are 3.95 degrees of latitude higher, and nearer to the northern range extent. Trees in landscapes and forest fragments did not differ in predawn water potential, a measure of water stress, but likely differed in soil composition and moisture. We used potted trees to control for these differences and found that M. tenebricosa density still increased three times more in landscapes than forests suggesting temperature and not tree stress is the dominant factor. Taken together our results indicate two things. First, that trees growing in urban forest fragments are buffered from a chronic urban tree pest due to lower temperatures. Second, that temperature-driven differences in M. tenebricosa density which we saw in Raleigh could predict future density of the pest in higher latitude cities as the climate warms.

"My future is bright I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention. METHODS: We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART. RESULTS: Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.

Adverse Drug Reactions Among Patients Initiating Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the occurrence of antiretroviral (ARV)-related adverse events (AEs) among patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important in preventing switches to more limited and expensive third-line regimens. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the rates and examine predictors of AEs among adult HIV-1-infected patients receiving second-line ART in the Right to Care (RTC) clinical cohort in South Africa. METHODS: This was a cohort study of HIV-1-infected adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) initiating standard second-line ART in South Africa from 1 April 2004 to 10 January 2016. Our primary outcome was the development of an AE within 24 months of initiating second-line therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to determine AE incidence in the first 24 months of second-line ART. Predictors of AEs were modelled using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 7708 patients initiated second-line ART, with 44.5% developing at least one AE over the first 24 months of second-line treatment. The highest AE incidence was observed among patients receiving abacavir (ABC) + lamivudine (3TC) + ritonavir-boosted lopinavir/atazanavir (LPVr/ATVr) (52.7/100 person-years (PYs), 95% confidence interval (CI): 42.9-64.8), while patients initiated on a tenofovir (TDF) + emtricitabine (FTC)/3TC + LPVr regimen had the lowest rate of AEs (26.4/100 PYs, 95% CI: 24.9-28.3). Clinical predictors of AEs included experiencing AEs when receiving first-line ART (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.3, 95% CI: 1.9-2.8), lower CD4 cell count (0-199 vs. ≥ 350 cells/mm3; aHR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.4-1.8), and switching to second-line therapy from an ABC-base first-line regimen (ABC + 3TC + efavirenz/nevirapine [EFV/NVP] vs. TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV/NVP; aHR 3.4, 95% CI: 1.1-11.1). CONCLUSIONS: The rates of AEs were lowest among patients receiving a TDF-based second-line regimen. Patients with poorer health at the time of switch were at higher risk of AEs when receiving second-line ART and may require closer monitoring to improve the durability of second-line therapy.

Multidisciplinary Point-of-Care Testing in South African Primary Health Care Clinics Accelerates HIV ART Initiation but Does Not Alter Retention in Care.

BACKGROUND: Lack of accessible laboratory infrastructure limits HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, monitoring, and retention in many resource-limited settings. Point-of-care testing (POCT) is advocated as a mechanism to overcome these limitations. We executed a pragmatic, prospective, randomized, controlled trial comparing the impact of POCT vs. standard of care (SOC) on treatment initiation and retention in care. METHODS: Selected POC technologies were embedded at 3 primary health clinics in South Africa. Confirmed HIV-positive participants were randomized to either SOC or POC: SOC participants were venesected and specimens referred to the laboratory with patient follow-up as per algorithm (∼3 visits); POC participants had phlebotomy and POCT immediately on-site using Pima CD4 to assess ART eligibility followed by hematology, chemistry, and tuberculosis screening with the goal of receiving same-day adherence counseling and treatment initiation. Participant outcomes measured at recruitment 6 and 12 months after initiation. RESULTS: Four hundred thirty-two of 717 treatment eligible participants enrolled between May 2012 and September 2013: 198 (56.7%) SOC; 234 (63.6%) POC. Mean age was 37.4 years; 60.5% were female. Significantly more participants were initiated using POC [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74 to 0.93; P < 0.0001], the median time to initiation was 1 day for POC and 26.5 days for SOC. The proportion of patients in care and on ART was similar for both arms at 6 months (47 vs. 50%) (aPR 0.96; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.16) and 12 months (32 vs. 32%) (aPR 1.05; 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.38), with similar mortality rates. Loss to follow-up at 12 months was higher for POC (36% vs. 51%) (aPR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.65 to 1.04). CONCLUSIONS: Adoption of POCT accelerated ART initiation but once on treatment, there was unexpectedly higher loss to follow-up on POC and no improvement in outcomes at 12 months over SOC.

Initiating antiretroviral therapy for HIV at a patient's first clinic visit: a cost-effectiveness analysis of the rapid initiation of treatment randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the cost and cost-effectiveness of single-visit (same-day) antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation compared to standard of care initiation. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis of individually randomized (1 : 1) pragmatic trial of single-visit initiation, which increased viral suppression at 10 months by 26% [relative risk (95% confidence interval) 1.26 (1.05-1.50)]. SETTING: Primary health clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: HIV positive, adult, nonpregnant patients not yet on ART or known to be eligible who presented at the clinic 8 May 2013 to 29 August 2014. INTERVENTION: Same-day ART initiation using point-of-care laboratory instruments and accelerated clinic procedures to allow treatment-eligible patients to receive antiretroviral medications at the same visit as testing HIV positive or having an eligible CD4 cell count. Comparison was to standard of care ART initiation, which typically required three to five additional clinic visits. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Average cost per patient enrolled and per patient achieving the primary outcome of initiated 90 days or less and suppressed 10 months or less, and production cost per patient achieving primary outcome (all costs per primary outcome patients). RESULTS: The average cost per patient enrolled, per patient achieving the primary outcome, and production cost were $319, $487, and $738 in the standard arm and $451, $505, and $707 in the rapid arm. CONCLUSION: Same-day treatment initiation was more effective than standard initiation, more expensive per patient enrolled, and less expensive to produce a patient achieving the primary outcome. Omitting point-of-care laboratory tests at initiation and focusing on high-volume clinics have the potential to reduce costs substantially and should be evaluated in routine settings.

Predicting the Need for Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy by Identifying Patients at High Risk for Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa.

Although third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available in South Africa's public sector, its cost is substantially higher than first and second line. Identifying risk factors for failure on second-line treatment remains crucial to reduce the need for third-line drugs. We conducted a case-control study including 194 adult patients (≥18 years; 70 cases and 124 controls) who initiated second-line ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess predictors of virologic failure (defined as 2 consecutive viral load measures ≥1000 copies/mL, ≥3 months after switching to second line). Variables included a social instability index, ART adherence, self-reported as well as diagnosed adverse drug reactions (ADRs), HIV disclosure, depression, and factors affecting access to HIV clinics. Overall 60.0% of cases and 54.0% of controls were female. Mean ages of cases and controls were 41.8 ± 9.6 and 43.3 ± 8.0, respectively. Virologic failure was predicted by ART adherence <90% [odds ratio (OR) 4.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.1-10.5], younger age (<40 years of age; OR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3-1.1), high social instability (OR 3.8; 95% CI: 1.30-11.5), self-reported ADR (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), disclosure to friends/colleagues rather than partner/relatives (OR 3.4; 95% CI: 1.3-9.1), and medium/high depression compared to low/no depression (OR 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5-13.4). Our results suggest complex socioeconomic factors contributing to risk of virologic failure, possibly by impacting ART adherence, among patients on second-line therapy in South Africa. Identifying patients with possible indicators of nonadherence could facilitate targeted interventions to reduce the risk of second-line treatment failure and mitigate the demand for third-line regimens.

Treatment Outcomes and Costs of Providing Antiretroviral Therapy at a Primary Health Clinic versus a Hospital-Based HIV Clinic in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In 2010 South Africa revised its HIV treatment guidelines to allow the initiation and management of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by nurses, rather than solely doctors, under a program called NIMART (Nurse Initiated and Managed Antiretroviral Therapy). We compared the outcomes and costs of NIMART between the two major public sector HIV treatment delivery models in use in South Africa today, primary health clinics and hospital-based HIV clinics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study was conducted at one hospital-based outpatient HIV clinic and one primary health clinic (PHC) in Gauteng Province. A retrospective cohort of adult patients initiated on ART at the PHC was propensity-score matched to patients initiated at the hospital outpatient clinic. Each patient was assigned a 12-month outcome of alive and in care or died/lost to follow up. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective for the 12 months after ART initiation. The proportion of patients alive and in care at 12 months did not differ between the PHC (76.5%) and the hospital-based site (74.2%). The average annual cost per patient alive and in care at 12 months after ART initiation was significantly lower at the PHC (US$238) than at the hospital outpatient clinic (US$428). CONCLUSIONS: Initiating and managing ART patients at PHCs under NIMART is producing equally good outcomes as hospital-based HIV clinic care at much lower cost. Evolution of hospital-based clinics into referral facilities that serve complicated patients, while investing most program expansion resources into PHCs, may be a preferred strategy for achieving treatment coverage targets.