Optimizing and benchmarking polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk score (PRS) is a major research topic in human genetics. However, a significant gap exists between PRS methodology and applications in practice due to often unavailable individual-level data for various PRS tasks including model fine-tuning, benchmarking, and ensemble learning. RESULTS: We introduce an innovative statistical framework to optimize and benchmark PRS models using summary statistics of genome-wide association studies. This framework builds upon our previous work and can fine-tune virtually all existing PRS models while accounting for linkage disequilibrium. In addition, we provide an ensemble learning strategy named PUMAS-ensemble to combine multiple PRS models into an ensemble score without requiring external data for model fitting. Through extensive simulations and analysis of many complex traits in the UK Biobank, we demonstrate that this approach closely approximates gold-standard analytical strategies based on external validation, and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art PRS methods. CONCLUSIONS: Our method is a powerful and general modeling technique that can continue to combine the best-performing PRS methods out there through ensemble learning and could become an integral component for all future PRS applications.

Valid inference for machine learning-assisted genome-wide association studies.

Machine learning (ML) has become increasingly popular in almost all scientific disciplines, including human genetics. Owing to challenges related to sample collection and precise phenotyping, ML-assisted genome-wide association study (GWAS), which uses sophisticated ML techniques to impute phenotypes and then performs GWAS on the imputed outcomes, have become increasingly common in complex trait genetics research. However, the validity of ML-assisted GWAS associations has not been carefully evaluated. Here, we report pervasive risks for false-positive associations in ML-assisted GWAS and introduce Post-Prediction GWAS (POP-GWAS), a statistical framework that redesigns GWAS on ML-imputed outcomes. POP-GWAS ensures valid and powerful statistical inference irrespective of imputation quality and choice of algorithm, requiring only GWAS summary statistics as input. We employed POP-GWAS to perform a GWAS of bone mineral density derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry imaging at 14 skeletal sites, identifying 89 new loci and revealing skeletal site-specific genetic architecture. Our framework offers a robust analytic solution for future ML-assisted GWAS.

Mid-to-Late Life Healthy Lifestyle Modifies Genetic Risk for Longitudinal Cognitive Aging among Asymptomatic Individuals.

IMPORTANCE: Genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to an individual's risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. However, it is unknown whether and how adherence to healthy lifestyles can mitigate the genetic risk of Alzheimer's. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate whether adherence to healthy lifestyles can modify the impact of genetic predisposition to Alzheimer's disease on later-life cognitive decline. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study included 891 adults of European ancestry, aged 40 to 65, who were without dementia and had complete healthy-lifestyle and cognition data during the follow-up. Participants joined the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention (WRAP) beginning in 2001. We conducted replication analyses using a subsample with similar baseline age range from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). EXPOSURES: We assessed participants' exposures using a continuous non-APOE polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's, a binary indicator for APOE-ε4 carrier status, and a weighted healthy-lifestyle score, including factors such as no current smoking, regular physical activity, healthy diet, light to moderate alcohol consumption, and frequent cognitive activities. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We z-standardized cognitive scores for global (Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite score 3 - PACC3) and domain-specific assessments (delayed recall and immediate learning). RESULTS: We followed 891 individuals for up to 10 years (mean [SD] baseline age, 58 [6] years, 31% male, 38% APOE-ε4 carriers). After false discovery rate (FDR) correction, we found statistically significant PRS × lifestyle × age interactions on preclinical cognitive decline but the evidence is stronger among APOE-ε4 carriers. Among APOE-ε4 carriers, PRS-related differences in overall and memory-related domains between people scoring 0-1 and 4-5 regarding healthy lifestyles became evident around age 67 after FDR correction. These findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses and were replicated in the population-based HRS. CONCLUSION: A favorable lifestyle can mitigate the genetic risk associated with current known non-APOE genetic variants for longitudinal cognitive decline, and these protective effects are particularly pronounced among APOE-ε4 carriers.

Post-GWAS multiomic functional investigation of the TNIP1 locus in Alzheimer's disease highlights a potential role for GPX3.

INTRODUCTION: Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have reported a genetic association with Alzheimer's disease (AD) at the TNIP1/GPX3 locus, but the mechanism is unclear. METHODS: We used cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) proteomics data to test (n = 137) and replicate (n = 446) the association of glutathione peroxidase 3 (GPX3) with CSF biomarkers (including amyloid and tau) and the GWAS-implicated variants (rs34294852 and rs871269). RESULTS: CSF GPX3 levels decreased with amyloid and tau positivity (analysis of variance P = 1.5 × 10-5) and higher CSF phosphorylated tau (p-tau) levels (P = 9.28 × 10-7). The rs34294852 minor allele was associated with decreased GPX3 (P = 0.041). The replication cohort found associations of GPX3 with amyloid and tau positivity (P = 2.56 × 10-6) and CSF p-tau levels (P = 4.38 × 10-9). DISCUSSION: These results suggest variants in the TNIP1 locus may affect the oxidative stress response in AD via altered GPX3 levels. HIGHLIGHTS: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) glutathione peroxidase 3 (GPX3) levels decreased with amyloid and tau positivity and higher CSF phosphorylated tau. The minor allele of rs34294852 was associated with lower CSF GPX3. levels when also controlling for amyloid and tau category. GPX3 transcript levels in the prefrontal cortex were lower in Alzheimer's disease than controls. rs34294852 is an expression quantitative trait locus for GPX3 in blood, neutrophils, and microglia.

Statistical methods for gene-environment interaction analysis.

Most human complex phenotypes result from multiple genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. Understanding the mechanisms by which genetic and environmental factors interact offers valuable insights into the genetic architecture of complex traits and holds great potential for advancing precision medicine. The emergence of large population biobanks has led to the development of numerous statistical methods aiming at identifying gene-environment interactions (G × E). In this review, we present state-of-the-art statistical methodologies for G × E analysis. We will survey a spectrum of approaches for single-variant G × E mapping, followed by various techniques for polygenic G × E analysis. We conclude this review with a discussion on the future directions and challenges in G × E research.

Biobank-wide association scan identifies risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer's disease and endophenotypes.

Rich data from large biobanks, coupled with increasingly accessible association statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provide great opportunities to dissect the complex relationships among human traits and diseases. We introduce BADGERS, a powerful method to perform polygenic score-based biobank-wide association scans. Compared to traditional approaches, BADGERS uses GWAS summary statistics as input and does not require multiple traits to be measured in the same cohort. We applied BADGERS to two independent datasets for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD; n=61,212). Among 1738 traits in the UK biobank, we identified 48 significant associations for AD. Family history, high cholesterol, and numerous traits related to intelligence and education showed strong and independent associations with AD. Furthermore, we identified 41 significant associations for a variety of AD endophenotypes. While family history and high cholesterol were strongly associated with AD subgroups and pathologies, only intelligence and education-related traits predicted pre-clinical cognitive phenotypes. These results provide novel insights into the distinct biological processes underlying various risk factors for AD.

Separating Scarring Effect and Selection of Early-Life Exposures With Genetic Data.

Causal life course research examining consequences of early-life exposures has largely relied on associations between early-life environments and later-life outcomes using exogenous environmental shocks. Nonetheless, even with (quasi-)randomized early-life exposures, these associations may reflect not only causation ("scarring") but also selection (i.e., which members are included in data assessing later life). Investigating this selection and its impacts on estimated effects of early-life conditions has, however, often been ignored because of a lack of pre-exposure data. This study proposes an approach for assessing and correcting selection, separately from scarring, using genetic measurements. Because genetic measurements are determined at the time of conception, any associations with early-life exposures should be interpreted as selection. Using data from the UK Biobank, we find that in utero exposure to a higher area-level infant mortality rate is associated with genetic predispositions correlated with better educational attainment and health. These findings point to the direction and magnitude of selection from this exposure. Corrections for this selection in examinations of effects of exposure on later educational attainment suggest underestimates of 26-74%; effects on other life course outcomes also vary across selection correction methods.

Vitamin D status and variable responses to supplements depend in part on genetic factors in adults with cystic fibrosis.

Vitamin D sufficiency has been difficult to achieve consistently in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), even with robust oral supplements. To assess vitamin D status and resistance to supplementation, we studied 80 adults using 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) determinations and whole genome sequencing to construct polygenic risk scores (PRS) that aggregate variants associated with vitamin D status. The results revealed that 30 % of patients were below the threshold of 30 ng/mL and thus should be regarded as insufficient despite normal vitamin E status, a reflection of adherence to fat soluble vitamin supplementation. The PRS values were significantly correlated with 25OHD concentrations, confirming our results in children with CF, and indicating that genetic factors play a role and have implications for therapy.

Interpreting polygenic score effects in sibling analysis.

Researchers often claim that sibling analysis can be used to separate causal genetic effects from the assortment of biases that contaminate most downstream genetic studies (e.g. polygenic score predictors). Indeed, typical results from sibling analysis show large (>50%) attenuations in the associations between polygenic scores and phenotypes compared to non-sibling analysis, consistent with researchers' expectations about bias reduction. This paper explores these expectations by using family (quad) data and simulations that include indirect genetic effect processes and evaluates the ability of sibling analysis to uncover direct genetic effects of polygenic scores. We find that sibling analysis, in general, fail to uncover direct genetic effects; indeed, these models have both upward and downward biases that are difficult to sign in typical data. When genetic nurture effects exist, sibling analysis creates "measurement error" that attenuates associations between polygenic scores and phenotypes. As the correlation between direct and indirect effect changes, this bias can increase or decrease. Our findings suggest that interpreting results from sibling analysis aimed at uncovering direct genetic effects should be treated with caution.

Controlling for polygenic genetic confounding in epidemiologic association studies.

Epidemiologic associations estimated from observational data are often confounded by genetics due to pervasive pleiotropy among complex traits. Many studies either neglect genetic confounding altogether or rely on adjusting for polygenic scores (PGS) in regression analysis. In this study, we unveil that the commonly employed PGS approach is inadequate for removing genetic confounding due to measurement error and model misspecification. To tackle this challenge, we introduce PENGUIN, a principled framework for polygenic genetic confounding control based on variance component estimation. In addition, we present extensions of this approach that can estimate genetically-unconfounded associations using GWAS summary statistics alone as input and between multiple generations of study samples. Through simulations, we demonstrate superior statistical properties of PENGUIN compared to the existing approaches. Applying our method to multiple population cohorts, we reveal and remove substantial genetic confounding in the associations of educational attainment with various complex traits and between parental and offspring education. Our results show that PENGUIN is an effective solution for genetic confounding control in observational data analysis with broad applications in future epidemiologic association studies.

Apolipoprotein E moderates the association between non-APOE polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease and aging on preclinical cognitive function.

INTRODUCTION: Variation in preclinical cognitive decline suggests additional genetic factors related to Alzheimer's disease (eg, a non-APOE polygenic risk score [PRS]) may interact with the APOE ε4 allele to influence cognitive decline. METHODS: We tested the PRS × APOE ε4 × age interaction on preclinical cognition using longitudinal data from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention. All analyses were fitted using a linear mixed-effects model and adjusted for within individual/family correlation among 1190 individuals. RESULTS: We found statistically significant PRS × APOE ε4 × age interactions on immediate learning (P = 0.038), delayed recall (P < 0.001), and Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite 3 score (P = 0.026). PRS-related differences in overall and memory-related cognitive domains between people with and without APOE ε4 emerge around age 70, with a much stronger adverse PRS effect among APOE ε4 carriers. The findings were replicated in a population-based cohort. DISCUSSIONS: APOE ε4 can modify the association between PRS and cognition decline. HIGHLIGHTS: APOE ε4 can modify the association between polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and longitudinal cognition decline, with the modifying effects more pronounced when the PRS is constructed using a conservative P threshold (eg, P < 5e-8 ). The adverse genetic effect caused by the combined effect of the currently known genetic variants is more detrimental among APOE Îµ4 carriers around age 70. Individuals who are APOE Îµ4 carriers with high PRSs are the most vulnerable to the harmful effects caused by genetic burden.

The Big (Genetic) Sort? A Research Note on Migration Patterns and Their Genetic Imprint in the United Kingdom.

This research note reinvestigates Abdellaoui et al.'s (2019) findings that genetically selective migration may lead to persistent and accumulating socioeconomic and health inequalities between types (coal mining or non-coal mining) of places in the United Kingdom. Their migration measure classified migrants who moved to the same type of place (coal mining to coal mining or non-coal mining to non-coal mining) into "stay" categories, preventing them from distinguishing migrants from nonmigrants. We reinvestigate the question of genetically selective migration by examining migration patterns between places rather than place types and find genetic selectivity in whether people migrate and where. For example, we find evidence of positive selection: people with genetic variants correlated with better education moved from non-coal mining to coal mining places with our measure of migration. Such findings were obscured in earlier work that could not distinguish nonmigrants from migrants.

Understanding Internal Migration: A Research Note Providing an Assessment of Migration Selection With Genetic Data.

Migration is selective, resulting in inequalities between migrants and nonmigrants. However, investigating migration selection is empirically challenging because combined pre- and post-migration data are rarely available. We propose an alternative approach to assessing internal migration selection by integrating genetic data, enabling an investigation of migration selection with cross-sectional data collected post-migration. Using data from the UK Biobank, we utilized standard tools from statistical genetics to conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for migration distance. We then calculated genetic correlations to compare GWAS results for migration with those for other characteristics. Given that individual genetics are determined at conception, these analyses allow a unique exploration of the association between pre-migration characteristics and migration. Results are generally consistent with the healthy migrant literature: genetics correlated with longer migration distance are associated with higher socioeconomic status and better health. We also extended the analysis to 53 traits and found novel correlations between migration and several physical health, mental health, personality, and sociodemographic traits.

Pervasive biases in proxy GWAS based on parental history of Alzheimer's disease.

Almost every recent Alzheimer's disease (AD) genome-wide association study (GWAS) has performed meta-analysis to combine studies with clinical diagnosis of AD with studies that use proxy phenotypes based on parental disease history. Here, we report major limitations in current GWAS-by-proxy (GWAX) practices due to uncorrected survival bias and non-random participation of parental illness survey, which cause substantial discrepancies between AD GWAS and GWAX results. We demonstrate that current AD GWAX provide highly misleading genetic correlations between AD risk and higher education which subsequently affects a variety of genetic epidemiologic applications involving AD and cognition. Our study sheds important light on the design and analysis of mid-aged biobank cohorts and underscores the need for caution when interpreting genetic association results based on proxy-reported parental disease history.

Genetic risk score in multiple sclerosis is associated with unique gut microbiome.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disease in which both the roles of genetic susceptibility and environmental/microbial factors have been investigated. More than 200 genetic susceptibility variants have been identified along with the dysbiosis of gut microbiota, both independently have been shown to be associated with MS. We hypothesize that MS patients harboring genetic susceptibility variants along with gut microbiome dysbiosis are at a greater risk of exhibiting the disease. We investigated the genetic risk score for MS in conjunction with gut microbiota in the same cohort of 117 relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) and 26 healthy controls. DNA samples were genotyped using Illumina's Infinium Immuno array-24 v2 chip followed by calculating genetic risk score and the microbiota was determined by sequencing the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. We identified two clusters of MS patients, Cluster A and B, both having a higher genetic risk score than the control group. However, the MS cases in cluster B not only had a higher genetic risk score but also showed a distinct gut microbiome than that of cluster A. Interestingly, cluster A which included both healthy control and MS cases had similar gut microbiome composition. This could be due to (i) the non-active state of the disease in that group of MS patients at the time of fecal sample collection and/or (ii) the restoration of the gut microbiome post disease modifying therapy to treat the MS. Our study showed that there seems to be an association between genetic risk score and gut microbiome dysbiosis in triggering the disease in a small cohort of MS patients. The MS Cluster A who have a higher genetic risk score but microbiome profile similar to that of healthy controls could be due to the remitting phase of the disease or due to the effect of disease modifying therapies.

CSF metabolites associated with biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease pathology.

Introduction: Metabolomics technology facilitates studying associations between small molecules and disease processes. Correlating metabolites in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with Alzheimer's disease (AD) CSF biomarkers may elucidate additional changes that are associated with early AD pathology and enhance our knowledge of the disease. Methods: The relative abundance of untargeted metabolites was assessed in 161 individuals from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention. A metabolome-wide association study (MWAS) was conducted between 269 CSF metabolites and protein biomarkers reflecting brain amyloidosis, tau pathology, neuronal and synaptic degeneration, and astrocyte or microglial activation and neuroinflammation. Linear mixed-effects regression analyses were performed with random intercepts for sample relatedness and repeated measurements and fixed effects for age, sex, and years of education. The metabolome-wide significance was determined by a false discovery rate threshold of 0.05. The significant metabolites were replicated in 154 independent individuals from then Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. Mendelian randomization was performed using genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms from a CSF metabolites genome-wide association study. Results: Metabolome-wide association study results showed several significantly associated metabolites for all the biomarkers except Aß42/40 and IL-6. Genetic variants associated with metabolites and Mendelian randomization analysis provided evidence for a causal association of metabolites for soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), amyloid ß (Aß40), α-synuclein, total tau, phosphorylated tau, and neurogranin, for example, palmitoyl sphingomyelin (d18:1/16:0) for sTREM2, and erythritol for Aß40 and α-synuclein. Discussion: This study provides evidence that CSF metabolites are associated with AD-related pathology, and many of these associations may be causal.

Impact of intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors on early-onset lung disease in cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Although respiratory pathology is known to develop in young children with cystic fibrosis (CF), the determinants of early-onset lung disease have not been elucidated. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the impact of potential intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors during the first 3 years of life, testing the hypothesis that both contribute significantly to early-onset CF lung disease. DESIGN: We studied 104 infants born during 2012-2017, diagnosed through newborn screening by age 3 months, and evaluated comprehensively to 36 months of age. Lung disease manifestations were quantified with a new scoring system known as CFELD for Cystic Fibrosis Early-onset Lung Disease. The variants in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene were determined and categorized. Whole genome sequencing was performed on each subject and the data transformed to polygenic risk scores (PRS) that aggregate variants associated with lung function. Extrinsic factors included socioeconomic status (SES) indicators and environmental experiences such as exposures to smoking, pets, and daycare. RESULTS: We found by univariate analysis that CFTR genotype and genetic modifiers aggregated by the PRS method were significantly associated with early-onset CF lung disease. Ordinal logistic regression analysis demonstrated that high and stable SES (maternal education ≥community college, stable 2-parent home, and not receiving Medicaid) and better growth (weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores) reduced risks, while exposure to smoking and daycare ≥20 h/week increased the risk of CFELD severity. CONCLUSIONS: Extrinsic, modifiable determinants are influential early and potentially as important as the intrinsic risk factors in the onset of CF lung disease.

Analysis of Sex-Specific Gene-by-Cohort and Genetic Correlation-by-Cohort Interaction in Educational and Reproductive Outcomes Using the UK Biobank Data.

Synthesizing prior gene-by-cohort (G×C) interaction studies, we theorize that changes in genetic effects by social conditions depend on the level of resource constraints, the distribution and use of resources, structural constraints, and constraints on individual choice. Motivated by the theory, we explored several sex-specific G×C trends across a set of outcomes using 30 birth cohorts of UK Biobank data (N = 400,000). We find that genetic coefficients on years of schooling and secondary educational attainment substantially decrease, but genetic coefficients on college attainments only moderately increase. On the other hand, genetic coefficients for education ranks are stable. Genetic coefficients on reproductive behavior increase for younger cohorts. Additional genetic-correlation-by-cohort analysis shows shifting genetic correlations between education and reproductive behavior. Our results suggest that the G×C patterns are highly heterogenous and that social and genetic factors jointly shape the diversity of human phenotypes.

Neurogenetic mechanisms of risk for ADHD: Examining associations of polygenic scores and brain volumes in a population cohort.

BACKGROUND: ADHD polygenic scores (PGSs) have been previously shown to predict ADHD outcomes in several studies. However, ADHD PGSs are typically correlated with ADHD but not necessarily reflective of causal mechanisms. More research is needed to elucidate the neurobiological mechanisms underlying ADHD. We leveraged functional annotation information into an ADHD PGS to (1) improve the prediction performance over a non-annotated ADHD PGS and (2) test whether volumetric variation in brain regions putatively associated with ADHD mediate the association between PGSs and ADHD outcomes. METHODS: Data were from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (N = 555). Multiple mediation models were tested to examine the indirect effects of two ADHD PGSs-one using a traditional computation involving clumping and thresholding and another using a functionally annotated approach (i.e., AnnoPred)-on ADHD inattention (IA) and hyperactivity-impulsivity (HI) symptoms, via gray matter volumes in the cingulate gyrus, angular gyrus, caudate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and inferior temporal lobe. RESULTS: A direct effect was detected between the AnnoPred ADHD PGS and IA symptoms in adolescents. No indirect effects via brain volumes were detected for either IA or HI symptoms. However, both ADHD PGSs were negatively associated with the DLPFC. CONCLUSIONS: The AnnoPred ADHD PGS was a more developmentally specific predictor of adolescent IA symptoms compared to the traditional ADHD PGS. However, brain volumes did not mediate the effects of either a traditional or AnnoPred ADHD PGS on ADHD symptoms, suggesting that we may still be underpowered in clarifying brain-based biomarkers for ADHD using genetic measures.

Apolipoprotein E moderates the association between Non-APOE Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease and Aging on Preclinical Cognitive Function.

INTRODUCTION: Variation in preclinical cognitive decline suggests additional genetic factors related to Alzheimer's disease (e.g., a non-APOE polygenic risk scores [PRS]) may interact with the APOE ε4 allele to influence cognitive decline. METHODS: We tested the PRS×APOE ε4×age interaction on preclinical cognition using longitudinal data from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention. All analyses were fitted using a linear mixed-effects model and adjusted for within individual/family correlation among 1,190 individuals. RESULTS: We found statistically significant PRS×APOE ε4×age interactions on immediate learning (P=0.038), delayed recall (P<0.001), and Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite 3 score (P=0.026). PRS-related differences in overall and memory-related cognitive domains between people with and without APOE ε4 emerge around age 70, with a much stronger adverse PRS effect among APOE ε4 carriers. The findings were replicated in a population-based cohort. DISCUSSION: APOE ε4 can modify the association between PRS and cognition decline.