Analyzing risk factors and developing a stratification system for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after interferon-free direct-acting antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C patients.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the therapeutic landscape of chronic hepatitis C (CHC), however real-world data on the risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following DAA treatment in CHC-HCC patients are limited in Taiwan. We aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of DAAs in Taiwanese patients with prior hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced HCC and identify the posttreatment risk factors for HCC recurrence. METHODS: Between January 2017 and August 2021, 208 CHC-HCC patients underwent DAA treatment at Taipei Veterans General Hospital. Among them, 94 patients met the inclusion criteria (Barcelona clinic liver cancer [BCLC] stage 0/A after treatment with complete radiological response) for analysis. Comprehensive demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected before and after DAA treatment. The primary outcome was HCC recurrence post-DAA treatment, and independent variables were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The mean age of the enrolled patients was 75.9 ± 8.9 years; 44.7% were male, and 94.7% were Child-Pugh class A. Before DAA treatment, 31.9% experienced HCC recurrence. The median follow-up after DAA treatment was 22.1 months (interquartile range, 8.6-35.9 months). After treatment, 95.7% of the patients achieved a sustained virological response (SVR 12 ), but HCC recurrence occurred in 54.3%. Cumulative HCC recurrence rates after treatment were 31.1% at 1 year, 57.3% at 3 years, and 68.5% at up to 5.69 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that prior HCC recurrence before DAA treatment (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.15, p = 0.001), no SVR 12 after treatment (HR = 6.829, p = 0.016), 12-week posttreatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level >10 ng/mL (HR = 2.34, p = 0.036), and BCLC A3 lesions (two or three nodules without any tumor exceeding 3 cm) (HR = 2.31, p = 0.039) were independent risk factors for HCC recurrence. We further developed a risk stratification system based on these significant independent factors. CONCLUSION: This investigation underscores the critical influence of factors such as prior HCC recurrence, successful attainment of SVR 12 , posttreatment AFP level, and specific tumor characteristics in determining the risk of HCC recurrence after treatment with DAAs. Our proposed innovative risk stratification system may not only contribute to enhanced personalized care but also holds the potential to optimize treatment outcomes.

Residual risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development for chronic hepatitis C patients treated by all oral direct-acting antivirals with sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection underwent a significant transformation with the introduction of all-oral direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs). These medications offered a high success rate in treatment, shorter duration, good tolerability, and expanded treatment options. However, a residual risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development remained for a few patients even after achieving sustained virological response (SVR). To date, there is a lack of real-world data on evaluating risk factors associated with de novo HCC in CHC patients post-SVR, particularly in Taiwan. METHODS: Between January 2017 and December 2019, a total of 671 consecutive CHC patients who achieved SVR after receiving DAAs were included for analysis. Patients with a history of HCC or liver transplantation prior to DAAs, a short follow-up period (<1 year), or treatment failure with DAAs were excluded. The primary outcome was the development of HCC following the initiation of DAAs. Variables associated with the primary outcome were assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The mean age of the enrolled patients was 65.1 ± 12.8 years, with 39.6% of them being male. Among the patients, 30.6% had advanced (F3-4) fibrosis, and the median follow-up period was 2.90 years. The cumulative incidence of HCC in CHC patients post-SVR12 was 1.6% at 1 year, 4.4% at 2 years, 4.8% at 3 years, 5.3% at 4 years, and 6.1% at 4.8 years, respectively. Variables independently associated with de novo HCC were advanced liver fibrosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.745; 95% CI = 1.960-23.218; p = 0.002), end-of-treatment 12 weeks (EOT 12 ) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >7 ng/mL (HR = 3.059; 95% CI = 1.215-7.669; p = 0.018), EOT 12 albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade ≥ 2 (HR = 2.664; 95% CI = 1.158-6.128; p = 0.021), and body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m 2 (HR = 2.214; 95% CI = 1.011-4.852; p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: Despite achieving viral clearance with DAAs, CHC patients still face a residual risk of de novo HCC. Establishing a risk stratification model based on independent variables could facilitate the prediction of future HCC development and enhance screening strategies.