Evaluation of 15 years of modeled atmospheric oxidized nitrogen compounds across the contiguous United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NO + NO2, together termed as NO X ) estimates from annual photochemical simulations for years 2002-2016 are compared to surface network measurements of NO X and total gas-phase-oxidized reactive nitrogen (NO Y ) to evaluate the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system performance by U.S. region, season, and time of day. In addition, aircraft measurements from 2011 Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality are used to evaluate how emissions, chemical mechanism, and measurement uncertainty each contribute to the overall model performance. We show distinct seasonal and time-of-day patterns in NO X performance. Summertime NO X is overpredicted with bimodal peaks in bias during early morning and evening hours and persisting overnight. The summertime morning NO X bias dropped from between 28% and 57% for earlier years (2002-2012) to between -2% and 7% for later years (2013-2016). Summer daytime NO X tends to be unbiased or underpredicted. In winter, the evening NO X overpredictions remain, but NO X is unbiased or underpredicted overnight, in the morning, and during the day. NO X overpredictions are most pronounced in the Midwestern and Southern United States with Western regions having more of a tendency toward model underpredictions of NO X . Modeled NO X performance has improved substantially over time, reflecting updates to the emission inputs and the CMAQ air quality model. Model performance improvements are largest for years simulated with CMAQv5.1 or later and for emission inventory years 2014 and later, coinciding with reduced onroad NO X emissions from vehicles with newer emission control technologies and improved treatment of chemistry, deposition, and vertical mixing in CMAQ. Our findings suggest that emissions temporalization of specific mobile source sectors have a small impact on model performance, while chemistry updates improve predictions of NO Y but do not improve summertime NO X bias in the Baltimore/DC area. Sensitivity runs performed for different locations across the country suggest that the improvement in summer NO X performance can be attributed to updates in vertical mixing incorporated in CMAQv5.1.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high-ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozone (O3) and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements across the basin. Contrary to other wintertime Uinta Basin studies, predicted nitrogen oxides (NO x ) were typically low compared to measurements. Increases to oil and gas VOC emissions resulted in O3 predictions closer to observations, and nighttime O3 improved when reducing the deposition velocity for all chemical species. Vertical structures of these pollutants were similar to observations on multiple days. However, the predicted surface layer VOC mixing ratios were generally found to be underestimated during the day and overestimated at night. While temperature profiles compared well to observations, WRF was found to have a warm temperature bias and too low nighttime mixing heights. Analyses of more realistic snow heat capacity in WRF to account for the warm bias and vertical mixing resulted in improved temperature profiles, although the improved temperature profiles seldom resulted in improved O3 profiles. While additional work is needed to investigate meteorological impacts, results suggest that the uncertainty in the oil and gas emissions contributes more to the underestimation of O3. Further, model adjustments based on a single site may not be suitable across all sites within the basin.

Nitrate radicals and biogenic volatile organic compounds: oxidation, mechanisms, and organic aerosol.

Oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) by the nitrate radical (NO3) represents one of the important interactions between anthropogenic emissions related to combustion and natural emissions from the biosphere. This interaction has been recognized for more than 3 decades, during which time a large body of research has emerged from laboratory, field, and modeling studies. NO3-BVOC reactions influence air quality, climate and visibility through regional and global budgets for reactive nitrogen (particularly organic nitrates), ozone, and organic aerosol. Despite its long history of research and the significance of this topic in atmospheric chemistry, a number of important uncertainties remain. These include an incomplete understanding of the rates, mechanisms, and organic aerosol yields for NO3-BVOC reactions, lack of constraints on the role of heterogeneous oxidative processes associated with the NO3 radical, the difficulty of characterizing the spatial distributions of BVOC and NO3 within the poorly mixed nocturnal atmosphere, and the challenge of constructing appropriate boundary layer schemes and non-photochemical mechanisms for use in state-of-the-art chemical transport and chemistry-climate models. This review is the result of a workshop of the same title held at the Georgia Institute of Technology in June 2015. The first half of the review summarizes the current literature on NO3-BVOC chemistry, with a particular focus on recent advances in instrumentation and models, and in organic nitrate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation chemistry. Building on this current understanding, the second half of the review outlines impacts of NO3-BVOC chemistry on air quality and climate, and suggests critical research needs to better constrain this interaction to improve the predictive capabilities of atmospheric models.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1.

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2.5 bias (PM2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO x (NO + NO2), VOC and SO x (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Modeling the Current and Future Roles of Particulate Organic Nitrates in the Southeastern United States.

Organic nitrates are an important aerosol constituent in locations where biogenic hydrocarbon emissions mix with anthropogenic NOx sources. While regional and global chemical transport models may include a representation of organic aerosol from monoterpene reactions with nitrate radicals (the primary source of particle-phase organic nitrates in the Southeast United States), secondary organic aerosol (SOA) models can underestimate yields. Furthermore, SOA parametrizations do not explicitly take into account organic nitrate compounds produced in the gas phase. In this work, we developed a coupled gas and aerosol system to describe the formation and subsequent aerosol-phase partitioning of organic nitrates from isoprene and monoterpenes with a focus on the Southeast United States. The concentrations of organic aerosol and gas-phase organic nitrates were improved when particulate organic nitrates were assumed to undergo rapid (τ = 3 h) pseudohydrolysis resulting in nitric acid and nonvolatile secondary organic aerosol. In addition, up to 60% of less oxidized-oxygenated organic aerosol (LO-OOA) could be accounted for via organic nitrate mediated chemistry during the Southern Oxidants and Aerosol Study (SOAS). A 25% reduction in nitrogen oxide (NO + NO2) emissions was predicted to cause a 9% reduction in organic aerosol for June 2013 SOAS conditions at Centreville, Alabama.

Epoxide pathways improve model predictions of isoprene markers and reveal key role of acidity in aerosol formation.

Isoprene significantly contributes to organic aerosol in the southeastern United States where biogenic hydrocarbons mix with anthropogenic emissions. In this work, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model is updated to predict isoprene aerosol from epoxides produced under both high- and low-NOx conditions. The new aqueous aerosol pathways allow for explicit predictions of two key isoprene-derived species, 2-methyltetrols and 2-methylglyceric acid, that are more consistent with observations than estimates based on semivolatile partitioning. The new mechanism represents a significant source of organic carbon in the lower 2 km of the atmosphere and captures the abundance of 2-methyltetrols relative to organosulfates during the simulation period. For the parametrization considered here, a 25% reduction in SOx emissions effectively reduces isoprene aerosol, while a similar reduction in NOx leads to small increases in isoprene aerosol.

Epoxide as a precursor to secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene photooxidation in the presence of nitrogen oxides.

Isoprene is a substantial contributor to the global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) burden, with implications for public health and the climate system. The mechanism by which isoprene-derived SOA is formed and the influence of environmental conditions, however, remain unclear. We present evidence from controlled smog chamber experiments and field measurements that in the presence of high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) typical of urban atmospheres, 2-methyloxirane-2-carboxylic acid (methacrylic acid epoxide, MAE) is a precursor to known isoprene-derived SOA tracers, and ultimately to SOA. We propose that MAE arises from decomposition of the OH adduct of methacryloylperoxynitrate (MPAN). This hypothesis is supported by the similarity of SOA constituents derived from MAE to those from photooxidation of isoprene, methacrolein, and MPAN under high-NOx conditions. Strong support is further derived from computational chemistry calculations and Community Multiscale Air Quality model simulations, yielding predictions consistent with field observations. Field measurements taken in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, considered along with the modeling results indicate the atmospheric significance and relevance of MAE chemistry across the United States, especially in urban areas heavily impacted by isoprene emissions. Identification of MAE implies a major role of atmospheric epoxides in forming SOA from isoprene photooxidation. Updating current atmospheric modeling frameworks with MAE chemistry could improve the way that SOA has been attributed to isoprene based on ambient tracer measurements, and lead to SOA parameterizations that better capture the dependency of yield on NO(x).

Ozone and TFA impacts in North America from degradation of 2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf), a potential greenhouse gas replacement.

We use a regional-scale, three-dimensional atmospheric model to evaluate U.S. air quality effects that would result from replacing HFC-134a in automobile air conditioners in the U.S. with HFO-1234yf. Although HFO-1234yf produces tropospheric ozone, the incremental amount is small, averaging less than 0.01% of total ozone formed during the simulation. We show that this production of ozone could be compensated for by a modest improvement in air conditioner efficiency. Atmospheric decomposition of HFO-1234yf produces trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which is subject to wet and dry deposition. Deposition and concentrations of TFA are spatially variable due to HFO-1234yf's short atmospheric lifetime, with more localized peaks and less global transport when compared to HFC-134a. Over the 2.5 month simulation, deposition of TFA in the continental U.S. from mobile air conditioners averages 0.24 kg km(-2), substantially higher than previous estimates from all sources of current hydrofluorocarbons. Automobile air conditioning HFO-1234yf emissions are predicted to produce concentrations of TFA in Eastern U.S. rainfall at least double the values currently observed from all sources, natural and man-made. Our model predicts peak concentrations in rainfall of 1264 ng L(-1), a level that is 80x lower than the lowest level considered safe for the most sensitive aquatic organisms.

Estimated 2017 refrigerant emissions of 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFC-1234yf) in the United States resulting from automobile air conditioning.

In response to recent regulations and concern over climate change, the global automotive community is evaluating alternatives to the current refrigerant used in automobile air conditioning units, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane, HFC-134a. One potential alternative is 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFC-1234yf, also known as HFO-1234yf). We have developed a spatially and temporally resolved inventory of likely future HFC refrigerant emissions from the U.S. vehicle fleet in 2017, considering regular, irregular, servicing, and end-of-life leakages. We estimate the annual leak rate emissions for each leakage category for a projected 2017 U.S. vehicle fleet by state, and spatially apportion these leaks to a 36 km square grid over the continental United States. This projected inventory is a necessary first step in analyzing for potential atmospheric and ecosystem effects, such as ozone and trifluoroacetic acid production, that might result from widespread replacement of HFC-134a with HFC-1234yf.

Codependencies of reactive air toxic and criteria pollutants on emission reductions.

It is important to understand the effects of emission controls on concentrations of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) simultaneously, to evaluate the full range of health, ecosystem, and economic effects. Until recently, the capability to simultaneously evaluate interrelated atmospheric pollutants ("one atmosphere" analysis) was unavailable to air quality managers. In this work, we use an air quality model to examine the potential effect of three emission reductions on concentrations of ozone, PM2.5, and four important HAPs (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, and benzene) over a domain centered on Philadelphia for 12-day episodes in July and January 2001. Although NO(x) controls are predicted to benefit PM2.5 concentrations and sometimes benefit ozone, they have only a small effect on formaldehyde, slightly increase acetaldehyde and acrolein, and have no effect on benzene in the July episode. Concentrations of all pollutants except benzene increase slightly with NO(x) controls in the January simulation. Volatile organic compound controls alone are found to have a small effect on ozone and PM2.5, a less than linear effect on decreasing aldehydes, and an approximately linear effect on acrolein and benzene in summer, but a slightly larger than linear effect on aldehydes and acrolein in winter. These simulations indicate the difficulty in assessing how toxic air pollutants might respond to emission reductions aimed at decreasing criteria pollutants such as ozone and PM2.5.

Fate and transport of emissions for several trace metals over the United States.

A regional model for atmospheric photochemistry and particulate matter is used to predict the fate and transport of five trace metals: lead, manganese, total chromium, nickel, and cadmium over the continental United States during January and July 2001. Predicted concentrations of the metals are compared to observations. Lead predictions have the lowest mean differences with observations and the highest correlation coefficients. They best agree with observations made in January over residential and commercial areas in the eastern United States and worst with observations over remote forests and deserts located in the western United States during July. Manganese predictions show similar abilities to reproduce observations but had larger changes between months. Chromium and nickel predictions show diminishing ability to reproduce observations over both urban and rural areas. Cadmium predictions show the least ability to reproduce observations. Potential causes are examined for the errors in predictions. For errors in lead, manganese and perhaps chromium predictions, aerial suspension and biomass burning are suspected because simulations did not include emissions from these sources. Nickel, cadmium and, to a lower extent, chromium predictions suffer from errors in the emissions that represent current anthropogenic activities. Predicted concentrations of all metals show errors from not including sub-grid processes in meteorological and emission rates. Examples include sea breeze circulation along coastal areas and individual sources in urban areas. These errors reduce the ability to reproduce the time dependence of observations.