RESUMEN
Megyesi et al.'s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r(2) = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.
Asunto(s)
Patologia Forense , Cambios Post Mortem , Autopsia , Antropología Forense , Humanos , TemperaturaRESUMEN
Accurate prediction of the postmortem interval requires an understanding of the decomposition process and the factors acting upon it. A controlled experiment, over 60 days at an outdoor site in the northwest of England, used 20 freshly killed pigs (Sus scrofa) as human analogues to study decomposition rate and pattern. Ten pigs were hung off the ground and ten placed on the surface. Observed differences in the decomposition pattern required a new decomposition scoring scale to be produced for the hanging pigs to enable comparisons with the surface pigs. The difference in the rate of decomposition between hanging and surface pigs was statistically significant (p=0.001). Hanging pigs reached advanced decomposition stages sooner, but lagged behind during the early stages. This delay is believed to result from lower variety and quantity of insects, due to restricted beetle access to the aerial carcass, and/or writhing maggots falling from the carcass.