Evaluating the use of lake sedimentary DNA in palaeolimnology: A comparison with long-term microscopy-based monitoring of the phytoplankton community.

Palaeolimnological records provide valuable information about how phytoplankton respond to long-term drivers of environmental change. Traditional palaeolimnological tools such as microfossils and pigments are restricted to taxa that leave sub-fossil remains, and a method that can be applied to the wider community is required. Sedimentary DNA (sedDNA), extracted from lake sediment cores, shows promise in palaeolimnology, but validation against data from long-term monitoring of lake water is necessary to enable its development as a reliable record of past phytoplankton communities. To address this need, 18S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing was carried out on lake sediments from a core collected from Esthwaite Water (English Lake District) spanning ~105 years. This sedDNA record was compared with concurrent long-term microscopy-based monitoring of phytoplankton in the surface water. Broadly comparable trends were observed between the datasets, with respect to the diversity and relative abundance and occurrence of chlorophytes, dinoflagellates, ochrophytes and bacillariophytes. Up to 20% of genera were successfully captured using both methods, and sedDNA revealed a previously undetected community of phytoplankton. These results suggest that sedDNA can be used as an effective record of past phytoplankton communities, at least over timescales of <100 years. However, a substantial proportion of genera identified by microscopy were not detected using sedDNA, highlighting the current limitations of the technique that require further development such as reference database coverage. The taphonomic processes which may affect its reliability, such as the extent and rate of deposition and DNA degradation, also require further research.

Seasonal Patterns of Phytoplankton Taxon Richness in Lakes: Effects of Temperature, Turnover and Abundance.

Species richness is a key ecological characteristic that influences numerous ecosystem functions. Here we analyse the patterns and possible causes of phytoplankton taxon richness in seasonal datasets from twenty contrasting lakes in the English Lake District over six years and near-weekly datasets over 33 years from Windermere. Taxon richness was lowest in winter and highest in summer or autumn in all of the lakes. Observed richness was very similar to richness estimated from coverage and sampling effort, implying that it closely reflected true seasonal patterns. Summer populations were dominated by Chlorophyta and functional groups X1, F, N and P (sensu Reynolds). In Windermere, weekly taxon richness was strongly positively correlated with surface water temperature, as was the number of functional groups and the number of taxa per functional group. Turnover in richness of taxa and functional groups were positively correlated and both were related to surface temperature. This suggests that high taxon richness in summer is linked to higher water temperature, promoting a turnover in richness of taxa and functional groups in these lakes. However, since the number of taxa per unit concentration of chlorophyll a decreased with increasing concentration of chlorophyll a, competition might occur when abundance is high.

Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes.

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.

Lake heatwaves under climate change.

Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change1-5, including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes6. However, very little is known about lake heatwaves-periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature-and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 ± 0.4 to 95.5 ± 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 ± 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 ± 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century7,8, their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity9 and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society.

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes.

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Regulation of Carbon Metabolism by Environmental Conditions: A Perspective From Diatoms and Other Chromalveolates.

Diatoms belong to a major, diverse and species-rich eukaryotic clade, the Heterokonta, within the polyphyletic chromalveolates. They evolved as a result of secondary endosymbiosis with one or more Plantae ancestors, but their precise evolutionary history is enigmatic. Nevertheless, this has conferred them with unique structural and biochemical properties that have allowed them to flourish in a wide range of different environments and cope with highly variable conditions. We review the effect of pH, light and dark, and CO2 concentration on the regulation of carbon uptake and assimilation. We discuss the regulation of the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle, glycolysis, lipid synthesis, and carbohydrate synthesis at the level of gene transcripts (transcriptomics), proteins (proteomics) and enzyme activity. In contrast to Viridiplantae where redox regulation of metabolic enzymes is important, it appears to be less common in diatoms, based on the current evidence, but regulation at the transcriptional level seems to be widespread. The role of post-translational modifications such as phosphorylation, glutathionylation, etc., and of protein-protein interactions, has been overlooked and should be investigated further. Diatoms and other chromalveolates are understudied compared to the Viridiplantae, especially given their ecological importance, but we believe that the ever-growing number of sequenced genomes combined with proteomics, metabolomics, enzyme measurements, and the application of novel techniques will provide a better understanding of how this important group of algae maintain their productivity under changing conditions.

External α-carbonic anhydrase and solute carrier 4 are required for bicarbonate uptake in a freshwater angiosperm.

The freshwater monocot Ottelia alismoides is the only known species to operate three CO2-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs): constitutive bicarbonate (HCO3-) use, C4 photosynthesis, and facultative Crassulacean acid metabolism, but the mechanism of HCO3- use is unknown. We found that the inhibitor of an anion exchange protein, 4,4'-diisothio-cyanatostilbene-2,2'-disulfonate (DIDS), prevented HCO3- use but also had a small effect on CO2 uptake. An inhibitor of external carbonic anhydrase (CA), acetazolamide (AZ), reduced the affinity for CO2 uptake but also prevented HCO3- use via an effect on the anion exchange protein. Analysis of mRNA transcripts identified a homologue of solute carrier 4 (SLC4) responsible for HCO3- transport, likely to be the target of DIDS, and a periplasmic α-carbonic anhydrase 1 (α-CA1). A model to quantify the contribution of the three different pathways involved in inorganic carbon uptake showed that passive CO2 diffusion dominates inorganic carbon uptake at high CO2 concentrations. However, as CO2 concentrations fall, two other pathways become predominant: conversion of HCO3- to CO2 at the plasmalemma by α-CA1 and transport of HCO3- across the plasmalemma by SLC4. These mechanisms allow access to a much larger proportion of the inorganic carbon pool and continued photosynthesis during periods of strong carbon depletion in productive ecosystems.

Insights on the Functions and Ecophysiological Relevance of the Diverse Carbonic Anhydrases in Microalgae.

Carbonic anhydrases (CAs) exist in all kingdoms of life. They are metalloenzymes, often containing zinc, that catalyze the interconversion of bicarbonate and carbon dioxide-a ubiquitous reaction involved in a variety of cellular processes. So far, eight classes of apparently evolutionary unrelated CAs that are present in a large diversity of living organisms have been described. In this review, we focus on the diversity of CAs and their roles in photosynthetic microalgae. We describe their essential role in carbon dioxide-concentrating mechanisms and photosynthesis, their regulation, as well as their less studied roles in non-photosynthetic processes. We also discuss the presence in some microalgae, especially diatoms, of cambialistic CAs (i.e., CAs that can replace Zn by Co, Cd, or Fe) and, more recently, a CA that uses Mn as a metal cofactor, with potential ecological relevance in aquatic environments where trace metal concentrations are low. There has been a recent explosion of knowledge about this well-known enzyme with exciting future opportunities to answer outstanding questions using a range of different approaches.

Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change.

Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.

Structural basis for C4 photosynthesis without Kranz anatomy in leaves of the submerged freshwater plant Ottelia alismoides.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ottelia alismoides (Hydrocharitaceae) is a freshwater macrophyte that, unusually, possesses three different CO2-concentrating mechanisms. Here we describe its leaf anatomy and chloroplast ultrastructure, how these are altered by CO2 concentration and how they may underlie C4 photosynthesis. METHODS: Light and transmission electron microscopy were used to study the anatomy of mature leaves of O. alismoides grown at high and low CO2 concentrations. Diel acid change and the activity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase were measured to confirm that CAM activity and C4 photosynthesis were present. KEY RESULTS: When O. alismoides was grown at low CO2, the leaves performed both C4 and CAM photosynthesis whereas at high CO2 leaves used C4 photosynthesis. The leaf comprised an upper and lower layer of epidermal cells separated by a large air space occupying about 22 % of the leaf transverse-section area, and by mesophyll cells connecting the two epidermal layers. Kranz anatomy was absent. At low CO2, chloroplasts in the mesophyll cells were filled with starch even at the start of the photoperiod, while epidermal chloroplasts contained small starch grains. The number of chloroplasts in the epidermis was greater than in the mesophyll cells. At high CO2, the structure was unchanged but the thicknesses of the two epidermal layers, the air space, mesophyll and the transverse-section area of cells and air space were greater. CONCLUSIONS: Leaves of O. alismoides have epidermal and mesophyll cells that contain chloroplasts and large air spaces but lack Kranz anatomy. The high starch content of mesophyll cells suggests they may benefit from an internal source of CO2, for example via C4 metabolism, and are also sites of starch storage. The air spaces may help in the recycling of decarboxylated or respired CO2. The structural similarity of leaves at low and high CO2 is consistent with the constitutive nature of bicarbonate and C4 photosynthesis. There is sufficient structural diversity within the leaf of O. alismoides to support dual-cell C4 photosynthesis even though Kranz anatomy is absent.

Hydropower reservoirs on the upper Mekong River modify nutrient bioavailability downstream.

Hydropower development is the key strategy in many developing countries for energy supply, climate-change mitigation and economic development. However, it is commonly assumed that river dams retain nutrients and therefore reduce downstream primary productivity and fishery catches, compromising food security and causing trans-boundary disputes. Contrary to expectation, here we found that a cascade of reservoirs along the upper Mekong River increased downstream bioavailability of nitrogen and phosphorus. The dams caused phytoplankton density to increase with hydraulic residence time and stratification of the stagnant reservoirs caused hypoxia at depth. This allowed the release of bioavailable phosphorus from the sediment and an increase in dissolved inorganic nitrogen as well as a shift in nitrogen species from nitrate to ammonium, which were transported downstream by the discharge of water from the base of the dam. Our findings provide a new perspective on the environmental impacts of river dams on nutrient cycling and ecosystem functioning, with potential implications for sustainable development of hydropower worldwide.

Climatic and anthropogenic regulation of carbon transport and transformation in a karst river-reservoir system.

The effect of dams on dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) transport and riverine ecosystems is unclear in karst cascade reservoirs. Here, we analyzed water samples from a karst river system with seven cascade reservoirs along the Wujiang River, southwestern China, during one hydrological year. From upstream to downstream, the average concentration of DIC increased from 2.2 to 2.6 mmol/L and its carbon isotope composition (δ13CDIC) decreased from -8.0 to -10‰. Meanwhile, the air temperature (Ta) increased from 20.3 °C to 26.7 °C and 10 °C to 13.7 °C in the warm and cold seasons, respectively. The results suggest that a cascade of dams has a stronger effect on DIC dynamics and retention than a single dam. The good correlation between Ta/HRT (hydraulic retention time) and Δ[DIC] as well as Δ[δ13CDIC] mean that Ta and HRT affected the magnitude of the damming effect by altering changes in concentration of DIC and δ13CDIC in the reservoir compared to the inflowing water. In particular, daily regulated reservoirs with short retention times acted more like river corridors and had a smaller effect on carbon dynamics, so modulating retention time might be used reduce the effect of dams on the riverine ecosystem.

The potential role of sediment organic phosphorus in algal growth in a low nutrient lake.

The role of sediment-bound organic phosphorus (Po) as an additional nutrient source is a component of internal P budgets in lake system that is usually neglected. Here we examined the relative importance of sediment Po to internal P load and the role of bioavailable Po in algal growth in Lake Erhai, China. Lake Erhai sediment extractable Po accounted for 11-43% (27% average) of extractable total P, and bioavailable Po accounted for 21-66% (40%) of Po. The massive storage of bioavailable Po represents an important form of available P, essential to internal loads. The bioavailable Po includes mainnly labile monoester P and diester P was identified in the sequential extractions by H2O, NaHCO3, NaOH, and HCl. 40% of H2O-Po, 39% of NaHCO3-Po, 43% of NaOH-Po, and 56% of HCl-Po can be hydrolyzed to labile monoester and diester P, suggesting that the bioavailability of Po fractions was in decreasing order as follows: HCl-Po > NaOH-Po > H2O-Po > NaHCO3-Po. It is implied that traditional sequential fractionation of Po might overestimate the availability of labile Po in sediments. Furthermore, analysis of the environmental processes of bioavailable Po showed that the stabler structure of dissloved organic matter (DOM) alleviated the degradation and release of diester P, abundant alkaline phosphatase due to higher algal biomass promoted the degradation of diester P. The stability of DOM structure and the degradation of diester P might responsible for the spatial differences of labile monoester P. The biogeochemical cycle of bioavailable Po replenishs available P pools in overlying water and further facilitate algal growth during the algal blooms. Therefore, to control the algal blooms in Lake Erhai, an effective action is urgently required to reduce the accumulation of Po in sediments and interrupt the supply cycle of bioavailable Po to algal growth.

Response of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton abundance to warming, extreme rainfall events and nutrient enrichment.

Cyanobacterial blooms are an increasing threat to water quality and global water security caused by the nutrient enrichment of freshwaters. There is also a broad consensus that blooms are increasing with global warming, but the impacts of other concomitant environmental changes, such as an increase in extreme rainfall events, may affect this response. One of the potential effects of high rainfall events on phytoplankton communities is greater loss of biomass through hydraulic flushing. Here we used a shallow lake mesocosm experiment to test the combined effects of: warming (ambient vs. +4°C increase), high rainfall (flushing) events (no events vs. seasonal events) and nutrient loading (eutrophic vs. hypertrophic) on total phytoplankton chlorophyll-a and cyanobacterial abundance and composition. Our hypotheses were that: (a) total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial abundance would be higher in heated mesocosms; (b) the stimulatory effects of warming on cyanobacterial abundance would be enhanced in higher nutrient mesocosms, resulting in a synergistic interaction; (c) the recovery of biomass from flushing induced losses would be quicker in heated and nutrient-enriched treatments, and during the growing season. The results supported the first and, in part, the third hypotheses: total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial abundance increased in heated mesocosms with an increase in common bloom-forming taxa-Microcystis spp. and Dolichospermum spp. Recovery from flushing was slowest in the winter, but unaffected by warming or higher nutrient loading. Contrary to the second hypothesis, an antagonistic interaction between warming and nutrient enrichment was detected for both cyanobacteria and chlorophyll-a demonstrating that ecological surprises can occur, dependent on the environmental context. While this study highlights the clear need to mitigate against global warming, oversimplification of global change effects on cyanobacteria should be avoided; stressor gradients and seasonal effects should be considered as important factors shaping the response.

Effects of brownification and warming on algal blooms, metabolism and higher trophic levels in productive shallow lake mesocosms.

An increase of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in inland waters has been reported across the northern temperate region but the effects of this on whole lake ecosystems, often combined with other anthropogenic stressors like nutrient inputs and warming, are poorly known. The effects of these changes on different component of the ecosystem were assessed in an experiment using twenty-four large (3000L) outdoor mesocosms simulating shallow lakes. Two different temperature regimes (ambient and ambient +4 °C) combined with three levels of organic matter (OM, added as filtered peaty water), simulating the DOC increase that is predicted to take place over the next 4 to 21 years were used. Neither temperature nor OM had significant effects on net ecosystem production, respiration or gross primary production. Phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentration was not significantly affected by warming, however in summer, autumn and winter it was significantly higher in mesocosms receiving intermediate OM levels (July-Feb DOC concentrations 2-6 mg L-1). Summer cyanobacterial blooms were highest in intermediate, and lowest in the highest OM treatments. OM concentration also influenced total macroinvertebrate abundance which was greater in spring and summer in mesocosms with intermediate and high OM. Fish abundance was not significantly affected by OM concentration, but abundance was greater in ambient (55 fish subsample-1) compared to heated mesocosms (17 fish subsample-1) and maximum abundance occurred two weeks later compared to heated mesocosms. The results suggest that changes in OM may have a greater effect on shallow lakes than temperature and that phytoplankton, especially cyanobacteria, benefit from intermediate OM concentrations, therefore, nuisance algal blooms might increase in relatively clear shallow eutrophic lakes where DOC concentrations increase.

A new widespread subclass of carbonic anhydrase in marine phytoplankton.

Most aquatic photoautotrophs depend on CO2-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs) to maintain productivity at ambient concentrations of CO2, and carbonic anhydrase (CA) plays a key role in these processes. Here we present different lines of evidence showing that the protein LCIP63, identified in the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, is a CA. However, sequence analysis showed that it has a low identity with any known CA and therefore belongs to a new subclass that we designate as iota-CA. Moreover, LCIP63 unusually prefers Mn2+ to Zn2+ as a cofactor, which is potentially of ecological relevance since Mn2+ is more abundant than Zn2+ in the ocean. LCIP63 is located in the chloroplast and only expressed at low concentrations of CO2. When overexpressed using biolistic transformation, the rate of photosynthesis at limiting concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon increased, confirming its role in the CCM. LCIP63 homologs are present in the five other sequenced diatoms and in other algae, bacteria, and archaea. Thus LCIP63 is phylogenetically widespread but overlooked. Analysis of the Tara Oceans database confirmed this and showed that LCIP63 is widely distributed in marine environments and is therefore likely to play an important role in global biogeochemical carbon cycling.

Different CO2 acclimation strategies in juvenile and mature leaves of Ottelia alismoides.

The freshwater macrophyte, Ottelia alismoides, is a bicarbonate user performing C4 photosynthesis in the light, and crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) when acclimated to low CO2. The regulation of the three mechanisms by CO2 concentration was studied in juvenile and mature leaves. For mature leaves, the ratios of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC) to ribulose-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) are in the range of that of C4 plants regardless of CO2 concentration (1.5-2.5 at low CO2, 1.8-3.4 at high CO2). In contrast, results for juvenile leaves suggest that C4 is facultative and only present under low CO2. pH-drift experiments showed that both juvenile and mature leaves can use bicarbonate irrespective of CO2 concentration, but mature leaves have a significantly greater carbon-extracting ability than juvenile leaves at low CO2. At high CO2, neither juvenile nor mature leaves perform CAM as indicated by lack of diurnal acid fluctuation. However, CAM was present at low CO2, though the fluctuation of titratable acidity in juvenile leaves (15-17 µequiv g-1 FW) was slightly but significantly lower than in mature leaves (19-25 µequiv g-1 FW), implying that the capacity to perform CAM increases as leaves mature. The increased CAM activity is associated with elevated PEPC activity and large diel changes in starch content. These results show that in O. alismoides, carbon-dioxide concentrating mechanisms are more effective in mature compared to juvenile leaves, and C4 is facultative in juvenile leaves but constitutive in mature leaves.

Effects of multiple stressors on cyanobacteria abundance vary with lake type.

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium-high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a "one-size fits-all" approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities.

The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species.