Fast parameter inference in a biomechanical model of the left ventricle by using statistical emulation.

A central problem in biomechanical studies of personalized human left ventricular modelling is estimating the material properties and biophysical parameters from in vivo clinical measurements in a timeframe that is suitable for use within a clinic. Understanding these properties can provide insight into heart function or dysfunction and help to inform personalized medicine. However, finding a solution to the differential equations which mathematically describe the kinematics and dynamics of the myocardium through numerical integration can be computationally expensive. To circumvent this issue, we use the concept of emulation to infer the myocardial properties of a healthy volunteer in a viable clinical timeframe by using in vivo magnetic resonance image data. Emulation methods avoid computationally expensive simulations from the left ventricular model by replacing the biomechanical model, which is defined in terms of explicit partial differential equations, with a surrogate model inferred from simulations generated before the arrival of a patient, vastly improving computational efficiency at the clinic. We compare and contrast two emulation strategies: emulation of the computational model outputs and emulation of the loss between the observed patient data and the computational model outputs. These strategies are tested with two interpolation methods, as well as two loss functions. The best combination of methods is found by comparing the accuracy of parameter inference on simulated data for each combination. This combination, using the output emulation method, with local Gaussian process interpolation and the Euclidean loss function, provides accurate parameter inference in both simulated and clinical data, with a reduction in the computational cost of about three orders of magnitude compared with numerical integration of the differential equations by using finite element discretization techniques.

Gaussian process emulation to accelerate parameter estimation in a mechanical model of the left ventricle: a critical step towards clinical end-user relevance.

In recent years, we have witnessed substantial advances in the mathematical modelling of the biomechanical processes underlying the dynamics of the cardiac soft-tissue. Gao et al. (Gao et al. 2017 J. R. Soc. Interface 14, 20170203 ( doi:10.1098/rsif.2017.0203 )) demonstrated that the parameters underlying the biomechanical model have diagnostic value for prognosticating the risk of myocardial infarction. However, the computational costs of parameter estimation are prohibitive when the goal lies in building real-time clinical decision support systems. This is due to the need to repeatedly solve the mathematical equations numerically using finite-element discretization during an iterative optimization routine. The present article presents a method for accelerating the inference of the constitutive parameters by using statistical emulation with Gaussian processes. We demonstrate how the computational costs can be reduced by about three orders of magnitude, with hardly any loss in accuracy, and we assess various alternative techniques in a comparative evaluation study based on simulated data obtained by solving the left ventricular model with the finite-element method, and real magnetic resonance images data for a human volunteer.

Statistical inference in mechanistic models: time warping for improved gradient matching.

Inference in mechanistic models of non-linear differential equations is a challenging problem in current computational statistics. Due to the high computational costs of numerically solving the differential equations in every step of an iterative parameter adaptation scheme, approximate methods based on gradient matching have become popular. However, these methods critically depend on the smoothing scheme for function interpolation. The present article adapts an idea from manifold learning and demonstrates that a time warping approach aiming to homogenize intrinsic length scales can lead to a significant improvement in parameter estimation accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this scheme on noisy data from two dynamical systems with periodic limit cycle, a biopathway, and an application from soft-tissue mechanics. Our study also provides a comparative evaluation on a wide range of signal-to-noise ratios.

Approximate parameter inference in systems biology using gradient matching: a comparative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: A challenging problem in current systems biology is that of parameter inference in biological pathways expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Conventional methods that repeatedly numerically solve the ODEs have large associated computational costs. Aimed at reducing this cost, new concepts using gradient matching have been proposed, which bypass the need for numerical integration. This paper presents a recently established adaptive gradient matching approach, using Gaussian processes (GPs), combined with a parallel tempering scheme, and conducts a comparative evaluation with current state-of-the-art methods used for parameter inference in ODEs. Among these contemporary methods is a technique based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). This has previously shown promising results for parameter estimation, but under lax experimental settings. We look at a range of scenarios to test the robustness of this method. We also change the approach of inferring the penalty parameter from AIC to cross validation to improve the stability of the method. METHODS: Methodology for the recently proposed adaptive gradient matching method using GPs, upon which we build our new method, is provided. Details of a competing method using RKHS are also described here. RESULTS: We conduct a comparative analysis for the methods described in this paper, using two benchmark ODE systems. The analyses are repeated under different experimental settings, to observe the sensitivity of the techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals that for known noise variance, our proposed method based on GPs and parallel tempering achieves overall the best performance. When the noise variance is unknown, the RKHS method proves to be more robust.

Gradient Matching Methods for Computational Inference in Mechanistic Models for Systems Biology: A Review and Comparative Analysis.

Parameter inference in mathematical models of biological pathways, expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs), is a challenging problem in contemporary systems biology. Conventional methods involve repeatedly solving the ODEs by numerical integration, which is computationally onerous and does not scale up to complex systems. Aimed at reducing the computational costs, new concepts based on gradient matching have recently been proposed in the computational statistics and machine learning literature. In a preliminary smoothing step, the time series data are interpolated; then, in a second step, the parameters of the ODEs are optimized, so as to minimize some metric measuring the difference between the slopes of the tangents to the interpolants, and the time derivatives from the ODEs. In this way, the ODEs never have to be solved explicitly. This review provides a concise methodological overview of the current state-of-the-art methods for gradient matching in ODEs, followed by an empirical comparative evaluation based on a set of widely used and representative benchmark data.