Use of Sequential Hot-Deck Imputation for Missing Health Care Systems Data for Population Health Research.

Electronic medical record (EMR) data present many opportunities for population health research. The use of EMR data for population risk models can be impeded by the high proportion of missingness in key patient variables. Common approaches like complete case analysis and multiple imputation may not be appropriate for some population health initiatives that require a single, complete analytic data set. In this study, we demonstrate a sequential hot-deck imputation (HDI) procedure to address missingness in a set of cardiometabolic measures in an EMR data set. We assessed the performance of sequential HDI within the individual variables and a commonly used composite risk score. A data set of cardiometabolic measures based on EMR data from 2 large urban hospitals was used to create a benchmark data set with simulated missingness. Sequential HDI was applied, and the resulting data were used to calculate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. The performance of the imputation approach was assessed using a set of metrics to evaluate the distribution and validity of the imputed data. Of the 567,841 patients, 65% had at least 1 missing cardiometabolic measure. Sequential HDI resulted in the distribution of variables and risk scores that reflected those in the simulated data while retaining correlation. When stratified by age and sex, risk scores were plausible and captured patterns expected in the general population. The use of sequential HDI was shown to be a suitable approach to multivariate missingness in EMR data. Sequential HDI could benefit population health research by providing a straightforward, computationally nonintensive approach to missing EMR data that results in a single analytic data set.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities.

Introduction: This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies. Methods: We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population. Results: Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts. Conclusions: The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

Health Economics Research in Primary Prevention of Cancer: Assessment, Current Challenges, and Future Directions.

In the past 2 decades, the demand for information on health economics research to guide health care decision making has substantially increased. Studies have provided evidence that eliminating or reducing tobacco use; eating a healthy diet, including fruit and vegetables; being physically active; reducing alcohol consumption; avoiding ultraviolet radiation; and minimizing exposure to environmental and occupational carcinogenic agents should substantially reduce cancer incidence in the population. The benefits of these primary prevention measures in reducing cancer incidence are not instantaneous. Therefore, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention. This article provides an overview of health economics research related to primary prevention of cancer. We addressed the following questions: 1) What are the gaps and unmet needs for performing health economics research focused on primary prevention of cancer? 2) What are the challenges and opportunities to conducting health economics research to evaluate primary prevention of cancer? and 3) What are the future directions for enhancing health economics research on primary prevention of cancer? Modeling primary prevention of cancer is often difficult given data limitations, long delays before the policy or intervention is effective, possible unintended effects of the policy or intervention, and the necessity of outside expertise to understand key inputs or outputs to the modeling. Despite these challenges, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention of cancer.

Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 recommendation on the use of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: To provide updated model-based estimates of the net balance in benefits and harms from routine use of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: Microsimulation modeling was used to estimate long-term benefits and harms for hypothetical US cohorts of men and women aged 40 to 79 years with up to 20% 10-year risk for an atherosclerotic CVD event and without prior history of CVD or elevated bleeding risks. Exposures: Low-dose (≤100 mg/d) aspirin for lifetime use, unless contraindicated by a bleeding event, and with stopping ages in 5-year intervals from age 65 to 85 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were lifetime net benefits measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-years. Benefits included reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Harms included increased nonfatal major gastrointestinal bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage. Reduced CRC incidence was considered in sensitivity analysis. Results: Estimated lifetime net QALYs were positive for both men and women at 5% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 40 and 59 years and at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 60 and 69 years. These estimates ranged from 2.3 (95% CI, -2.7 to 7.4) to 66.2 (95% CI, 58.2 to 74.1) QALYs per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were positive for men at 5% or greater and women at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk starting aspirin at ages 40 to 49 years and for men at 7.5% or greater and women at 15% or greater 10-year CVD risk at ages 50 to 59 years. These estimates ranged from 0.4 (95% CI, -6.1 to 6.9) to 52.4 (95% CI, 43.9 to 60.9) life-years per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were negative in most cases for persons starting aspirin between ages 60 and 79 years, as were lifetime net QALYs for persons aged 70 to 79 years. Stopping aspirin between ages 65 and 85 years generally showed little advantage compared with lifetime use. Sensitivity analyses showed lifetime net benefits may be higher if aspirin reduced CRC incidence or CVD mortality and lower if aspirin increased fatal major gastrointestinal bleeding or reduced quality of life with routine use. Conclusions and Relevance: This microsimulation study suggested that several population groups may benefit from taking aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD, primarily in persons starting at younger ages with higher 10-year CVD risk.

Projecting the future impact of past accomplishments in tobacco control.

BACKGROUND: The benefits to adults who quit smoking increase over time as former smokers live longer, healthier lives. Youth who never smoke will benefit for decades. Thus, the long-term population effects of tobacco prevention and control policies may be substantial. Yet they are rarely quantified in evaluations of state tobacco control programmes. METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, we predicted the benefits to Minnesotans from 2018 to 2037 of having reduced cigarette smoking prevalence from 1998 to 2017. We first simulated the health and economic harms of tobacco that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. The harms produced by that scenario were then compared with harms in scenarios with smoking declining at observed rates from 1998 to 2017 and either expected declines from 2018 to 2037 or a greater decline to 5% prevalence in 2037. RESULTS: With expected smoking prevalence decreases from 2018 to 2037, Minnesotans will experience 12 298 fewer cancers, 72 208 fewer hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 31 913 fewer respiratory disease hospitalisations, 14 063 fewer smoking-attributable deaths, $10.2 billion less in smoking-attributable medical expenditures and $9.4 billion in productivity gains than if prevalence had stayed at 1997 levels. These gains are two to four times greater than for the previous 20 years, and would be about 15% higher if Minnesota achieves a 5% adult prevalence rate by 2037. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco control measures implemented from 1998 to 2017 will produce accelerated benefits during 2018-2037 if modest progress in tobacco prevalence rates is maintained.

Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Factors Among Somali Immigrants and Refugees.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks are of concern among immigrants and refugees settling in affluent host countries. The prevalence of CVD and risk factors among Somali African immigrants to the U.S. has not been systematically studied. METHODS: In 2015-2016, we surveyed 1156 adult Somalis in a Midwestern metropolitan area using respondent-driven sampling to obtain anthropometric, interview, and laboratory data about CVD and associated risk factors, demographics, and social factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes and low physical activity among men and women was high. Overweight, obesity, and dyslipidemia were also particularly prevalent. Levels of calculated CVD risk across the community were greater for men than women. CONCLUSION: Though CVD risk is lower among Somalis than the general U.S. population, our results suggest significant prevalence of risk factors among Somali immigrants. Comparison with prior research suggests that CVD risks may be increasing, necessitating thoughtful intervention to prevent adverse population outcomes.

Preventing Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Deaths: Assessing the Impact of Increased Screening.

INTRODUCTION: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends select preventive clinical services, including cancer screening. However, screening for cancers remains underutilized in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads initiatives to increase breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We assessed the number of avoidable deaths from increased screening, according to USPSTF recommendations, for CRC and female breast and cervical cancers. METHODS: We used model-based estimates of avoidable deaths for the lifetime of single-year age cohorts under the current and increased use of screening scenarios (data year 2016; analysis, 2018). We calculated prevented cancer deaths for each 1% increase in screening uptake and extrapolated to current level of screening (2016), current level plus 10 percentage points, and increasing screening to 90% and 100% of the eligible population. RESULTS: Increased use of screening from current levels to 100% would prevent an additional 2,821 deaths from breast cancer, 6,834 deaths from cervical cancer, and 35,530 deaths from CRC over a lifetime of the respective single-year cohort. Increasing use of CRC screening would prevent approximately 8.5 times as many deaths as the equivalent increase in use of breast cancer screening (women only), although twice as many people (men and women) would have to be screened for CRC. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of deaths could be avoided by increasing breast, cervical, and CRC screening. Public health programs incorporating strategies shown to be effective can help increase screening rates.

Cardiovascular Events and Costs With Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management for Uncontrolled Hypertension.

Uncontrolled hypertension is a leading contributor to cardiovascular disease. A cluster-randomized trial in 16 primary care clinics showed that 12 months of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management lowered blood pressure more than usual care (UC) for 24 months. We report cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalized heart failure, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death) and costs over 5 years of follow-up. In the telemonitoring intervention (TI group, n=228), there were 15 cardiovascular events (5 myocardial infarction, 4 stroke, 5 heart failure, 1 cardiovascular death) among 10 patients. In UC group (n=222), there were 26 events (11 myocardial infarction, 12 stroke, 3 heart failure) among 19 patients. The cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 4.4% in the TI group versus 8.6% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.21-1.13], P=0.09). Including 2 coronary revascularizations in the TI group and 10 in the UC group, the secondary cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 5.3% in the TI group versus 10.4% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.22-1.08], P=0.08). Microsimulation modeling showed the difference in events far exceeded predictions based on observed blood pressure. Intervention costs (in 2017 US dollars) were $1511 per patient. Over 5 years, estimated event costs were $758 000 in the TI group and $1 538 000 in the UC group for a return on investment of 126% and a net cost savings of about $1900 per patient. Telemonitoring with pharmacist management lowered blood pressure and may have reduced costs by avoiding cardiovascular events over 5 years. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00781365.

Health and Budgetary Impact of Achieving 10-Year U.S. Sodium Reduction Targets.

INTRODUCTION: This study estimates the health, economic, and budgetary impact resulting from graduated sodium reductions in the commercially produced food supply of the U.S., which are consistent with draft U.S. Food and Drug Administration voluntary guidance and correspond to Healthy People 2020 objectives and the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. METHODS: Reduction in mean U.S. dietary sodium consumption to 2,300 mg/day was implemented in a microsimulation model designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease-related policies in the U.S. POPULATION: The analysis was conducted in 2018-2020, and the microsimulation model was constructed using various data sources from 1948 to 2018. Modeled outcomes over 10 years included prevalence of systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease events, and cardiovascular disease-related mortality; averted medical costs by payer in 2017 U.S. dollars; and productivity. RESULTS: Reducing sodium consumption is expected to reduce the number of people with systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg by about 22% and prevent approximately 895.2 thousand cardiovascular disease events (including 218.9 thousand myocardial infarctions and 284.5 thousand strokes) and 252.5 thousand cardiovascular disease-related deaths over 10 years in the U.S. Savings from averted disease costs are expected to total almost $37 billion-most of which would be attributed to Medicare ($18.4 billion) and private insurers ($13.4 billion)-and increased productivity from reduced disease burden and premature mortality would account for another $18.2 billion in gains. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic sodium reductions in the U.S. food supply can be expected to produce substantial health and economic benefits over a 10-year period, particularly for Medicare and private insurers.

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets. RESULTS: The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6-9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: 1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. METHODS: Using the HealthPartners Institute's ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. RESULTS: The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. CONCLUSION: Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

Twenty-year health and economic impact of reducing cigarette use: Minnesota 1998-2017.

BACKGROUND: Adult smoking prevalence in Minnesota fell from 21.8% in 1997 to 15.2% in 2016. This reduction improved heart and lung health, prevented cancers, extended life and reduced healthcare costs, but quantifying these benefits is difficult. METHODS: 1.3 million individuals were simulated in a tobacco policy model to estimate the gains to Minnesotans from 1998 to 2017 in health, medical spending reductions and productivity gains due to reduced cigarette smoking. A constant prevalence scenario was created to simulate the tobacco harms that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. Those harms were compared with tobacco harms from a scenario of actual smoking prevalence in Minnesota from 1998 to 2017. RESULTS: The simulation model predicts that reducing cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2017 has prevented 4560 cancers, 31 691 hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 12 881 respiratory disease hospitalisations and 4118 smoking-attributable deaths. Minnesotans spent an estimated $2.7 billion less in medical care and gained $2.4 billion in paid and unpaid productivity, inflation adjusted to 2017 US$. In sensitivity analysis, medical care savings ranged from $1.7 to $3.6 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Minnesota's investment in comprehensive tobacco control measures has driven down smoking rates, saved billions in medical care and productivity costs and prevented tobacco related diseases of its residents. The simulation method employed in this study can be adapted to other geographies and time periods to bring to light the invisible gains of tobacco control.

Modeling the Health and Budgetary Impacts of a Team-based Hypertension Care Intervention That Includes Pharmacists.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the potential health and budgetary impacts of implementing a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension management model in the United States. RESEARCH DESIGN: In 2017, we evaluated a pharmacist-involved team-based care intervention among 3 targeted groups using a microsimulation model designed to estimate cardiovascular event incidence and associated health care spending in a cross-section of individuals representative of the US population: implementing it among patients with: (1) newly diagnosed hypertension; (2) persistently (≥1 year) uncontrolled blood pressure (BP); or (3) treated, yet persistently uncontrolled BP-and report outcomes over 5 and 20 years. We describe the spending thresholds for each intervention strategy to achieve budget neutrality in 5 years from a payer's perspective. RESULTS: Offering this intervention could prevent 22.9-36.8 million person-years of uncontrolled BP and 77,200-230,900 heart attacks and strokes in 5 years (83.8-174.8 million and 393,200-922,900 in 20 years, respectively). Health and economic benefits strongly favored groups 2 and 3. Assuming an intervention cost of $525 per enrollee, the intervention generates 5-year budgetary cost-savings only for Medicare among groups 2 and 3. To achieve budget neutrality in 5 years across all groups, intervention costs per person need to be around $35 for Medicaid, $180 for private insurance, and $335 for Medicare enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension model could substantially improve BP control and cardiovascular outcomes in the United States. Net cost-savings among groups 2 and 3 make a compelling case for Medicare, but favorable economics may also be possible for private insurers, particularly if innovations could moderately lower the cost of delivering an effective intervention.

Economic Evaluation of the Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Case Management to Control Hypertension (Hyperlink) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacist-managed (team-based) care for hypertension with home blood pressure monitoring support interventions have been widely studied and shown to be effective in improving rates of hypertension control and lowering blood pressure; however, few studies have evaluated the economic considerations related to bringing these programs into usual practice. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the economic outcomes of the Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management on Blood Pressure (Hyperlink) study, a cluster randomized controlled trial which used home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist case management to achieve better blood pressure control in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. METHODS: A prospective analysis compared differences in medical costs and encounters in the Hyperlink telemonitoring intervention and usual care groups in the 12 months pre- and post-enrollment using medical and pharmacy insurance claims from a health care sector perspective. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate differences between groups over time. These results, combined with previously published prospective study results on intervention costs and blood pressure outcomes, were used to estimate cost-effectiveness measures for blood pressure control and reduction. FINDINGS: Total medical costs in the intervention group were lower compared with the usual care group by an average of $281 per person, but this difference was not statistically significant. Clinic-based office visit, radiology, pharmacy, and hospital costs were also non-significantly lower in the intervention group. Statistically significant differences were found in lipid-related laboratory costs (higher) and in hypertension- (higher) and lipid-related (lower) pharmacy costs. Patterns in medical costs were similar for medical encounters. On average, the intervention cost $7337 per person achieving hypertension control and $139 or $265 per mm Hg reduction in systolic or diastolic blood pressure, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Home blood pressure monitoring and pharmacist case management to improve hypertension care can be implemented without increasing, and potentially reducing, overall medical care costs.

Long-term Outcomes of the Effects of Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management on Blood Pressure Among Adults With Uncontrolled Hypertension: Follow-up of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease. The results were previously reported of a trial of home blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring and pharmacist management intervention in which the interventions stopped after 12 months. There were significantly greater reductions in systolic BP (SBP) in the intervention group than in the usual care group at 6, 12, and 18 months (-10.7, -9.7, and -6.6 mm Hg, respectively). Objectives: To examine the durability of the intervention effect on BP through 54 months of follow-up and to compare BP measurements performed in the research clinic and in routine clinical care. Design, Setting, and Participants: Follow-up of a cluster randomized clinical trial among 16 primary care clinics and 450 patients with uncontrolled hypertension in a large health system from March 2009 to November 2015. Interventions: A home BP telemonitoring intervention with pharmacist management or usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change from baseline to 54 months in SBP and diastolic BP (DBP) measured as the mean of 3 measurements obtained at each research clinic visit. Results: Among 450 patients, 228 (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [11.7] years; 54.8% male) were randomized to the telemonitoring intervention and 222 (mean [SD] age, 60.2 [12.2] years; 55.9% male) to usual care. Research clinic BP measurements were obtained from 326 of 450 (72.4%) study patients at the 54-month follow-up visit, including 162 (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [11.1] years; 54.9% male) randomized to the telemonitoring intervention and 164 (mean [SD] age, 60.0 [11.2] years; 57.3% male) to usual care. Routine clinical care BP measurements were obtained from 439 of 450 (97.6%) study patients at 6248 visits during the follow-up period. Based on research clinic measurements, baseline mean SBP was 148 mm Hg in both groups. In the intervention group, mean SBP at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 54-month follow-up was 126.7, 125.7, 126.9, and 130.6 mm Hg, respectively. In the usual care group, mean SBP at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 54-month follow-up was 136.9, 134.8, 133.0, and 132.6 mm Hg, respectively. The differential reduction by study group in SBP from baseline to 54 months was -2.5 mm Hg (95% CI, -6.3 to 1.2 mm Hg; P = .18). The DBP followed a similar pattern, with a differential reduction by study group from baseline to 54 months of -1.0 mm Hg (95% CI, -3.2 to 1.2 mm Hg; P = .37). The SBP and DBP results from routine clinical measurements suggested significantly lower BP in the intervention group for up to 24 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This intensive intervention had sustained effects for up to 24 months (12 months after the intervention ended). Long-term maintenance of BP control is likely to require continued monitoring and resumption of the intervention if BP increases. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00781365.

Updated Priorities Among Effective Clinical Preventive Services.

PURPOSE: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's provisions for first-dollar coverage of evidence-based preventive services have reduced an important barrier to receipt of preventive care. Safety-net providers, however, still serve a substantial uninsured population, and clinician and patient time remain limited in all primary care settings. As a consequence, decision makers continue to set priorities to help focus their efforts. This report updates estimates of relative health impact and cost-effectiveness for evidence-based preventive services. METHODS: We assessed the potential impact of 28 evidence-based clinical preventive services in terms of their cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden, as measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of the 2 measures-cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden-for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. New microsimulation models were used to provide updated estimates of 12 of these services. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally. RESULTS: The 3 highest-ranking services, each with a total score of 10, are immunizing children, counseling to prevent tobacco initiation among youth, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention to encourage cessation among adults. Greatest population health improvement could be obtained from increasing utilization of clinical preventive services that address tobacco use, obesity-related behaviors, and alcohol misuse, as well as colorectal cancer screening and influenza vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies high-priority preventive services and should help decision makers select which services to emphasize in quality-improvement initiatives.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Asymptomatic Screening for Hypertension and High Cholesterol and Aspirin Counseling for Primary Prevention.

PURPOSE: Our aim was to update estimates of the health and economic impact of clinical services recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for the comparative rankings of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, and to explore differences in outcomes by sex and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We used a single, integrated, microsimulation model to generate comparable results for 3 services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force: aspirin counseling for the primary prevention of CVD and colorectal cancer, screening and treatment for lipid disorders (usually high cholesterol), and screening and treatment for hypertension. Analyses compare lifetime outcomes from the societal perspective for a US-representative birth cohort of 100,000 persons with and without access to each clinical preventive service. Primary outcomes are health impact, measured by the net difference in lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness, measured in incremental cost per QALY or cost savings per person in 2012 dollars. Results are also presented for population subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Health impact is highest for hypertension screening and treatment (15,600 QALYs), but is closely followed by cholesterol screening and treatment (14,300 QALYs). Aspirin counseling has a lower health impact (2,200 QALYs) but is found to be cost saving ($31 saved per person). Cost-effectiveness for cholesterol and hypertension screening and treatment is $33,800 per QALY and $48,500 per QALY, respectively. Findings favor hypertension over cholesterol screening and treatment for women, and opportunities to reduce disease burden across all services are greatest for the non-Hispanic black population. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 CVD preventive services continue to rank highly among other recommended preventive services for US adults, but individual priorities can be tailored in practice by taking a patient's demographic characteristics and clinical objectives into account.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults.

PURPOSE: To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. METHODS: We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. RESULTS: Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. CONCLUSIONS: Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time.

Patient characteristics associated with greater blood pressure control in a randomized trial of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management.

This paper reports subgroup analysis of a successful cluster-randomized trial to identify attributes of hypertensive patients who benefited more or less from an intervention combining blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring and pharmacist management. The end point was BP < 140/90 mm Hg at 6-month follow-up. Fourteen baseline patient characteristics were selected a priori as subgroup variables. Among the 351 trial participants, 44% were female, 84% non-Hispanic white, mean age was 60.9 years, and mean BP was 149/86 mm Hg. The overall adjusted odds ratio for BP control in the intervention versus usual care group was 3.64 (P < .001). The effect of the intervention was significantly larger in patients who were younger (interaction P = .02), did not have diabetes (P = .005), had high baseline diastolic BP (P = .02), added salt less than daily in food preparation (P = .007), and took 0-2 (rather than 3-6) antihypertensive medication classes at baseline (P = .02). These findings may help prioritize patients for whom the intervention is most effective.

A Statewide Effort to Implement Collaborative Care for Depression: Reach and Impact for All Patients With Depression.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the reach and impact of collaborative care for depression outside of clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the effect of a collaborative care intervention for depression on the rates of depression diagnosis, use of specific depression codes, and treatment intensification. RESEARCH DESIGN: Evaluation of a staggered, multiple baseline implementation initiative. SUBJECTS: Patients receiving depression care in primary care clinics throughout Minnesota from February 2008 through March 2011. MEASURES: Data regarding depression diagnosis rates and codes, and measures of antidepressant intensification were provided by health insurers. RESULTS: Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction (DIAMOND) affected neither rates of depression recognition nor use of depression diagnostic codes, and the overall reach of DIAMOND was disappointingly small. Patients in DIAMOND had more episodes of treatment intensification than non-DIAMOND patients, but we were unable to account for depression severity in our analysis. CONCLUSIONS: DIAMOND did not affect depression recognition or diagnostic coding, but may have affected treatment intensification. Our results suggest that even strongly evidence-based interventions may have little contamination effects on patients not enrolled in the new care model.