Multi-hazard susceptibility and exposure assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

Mountainous regions are highly hazardous, and these hazards often lead to loss of human life. The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), like many mountainous regions, is the site of multiple and overlapping natural hazards, but the distribution of multi-hazard risk and the populations exposed to it are poorly understood. Here, we present high-resolution transboundary models describing susceptibility to floods, landslides, and wildfires to understand population exposure to multi-hazard risk across the HKH. These models are created from historical remotely sensed data and hazard catalogs by the maximum entropy (Maxent) machine learning technique. Our results show that human settlements in the HKH are disproportionately concentrated in areas of high multi-hazard risk. In contrast, low-hazard areas are disproportionately unpopulated. Nearly half of the population in the region lives in areas that are highly susceptible to more than one hazard. Warm low-altitude foothill areas with perennially moist soils were identified as highly susceptible to multiple hazards. This area comprises only 31% of the study region, but is home to 49% of its population. The results also show that areas susceptible to multiple hazards are also major corridors of current migration and urban expansion, suggesting that current rates and patterns of urbanization will continue to put more people at risk. This study establishes that the population in the HKH is concentrated in areas susceptible to multiple hazards and suggests that current patterns of human movement will continue to increase exposure to multi-hazards in the HKH.

Determinants of crop residue burning practice in the Terai region of Nepal.

The open burning of agricultural crop residue is a key environmental issue facing the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, the Indo-Gangetic plain in particular. There is a varying intensity in the incidence of open agricultural burning in this region, and multiple drivers that determine why farmers in this region decide to burn their crop residues. While there have been research studies conducted for other countries in the region, research into the determinants of crop-burning in the Nepalese context is missing. Using primary data from a survey of 388 farming households across three districts of the Nepal Terai-Nawalparasi, Rupandehi and Kapilvastu-applying a recursive bivariate probit model, this study seeks to find out what drives the Nepalese farmers to burn their crop residue instead of using them in a sustainable manner and suggest policy recommendations for mitigation. Our findings show that the major determining factors that influence the farmers' behavior in Nepal are livestock ownership, combine harvester use and awareness level of the farmers. While the effects of crop residue burning is transboundary in nature, the mitigation measures require to be region specific. Based on the findings, the study proposes raising livestock, using technology like Happy Seeders or upgrade the combine harvesters, raising awareness and changing perception of farmers, and promoting alternative uses of crop residue as viable mitigation measures.

Socio-Economic Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia: Emerging Risks and Growing Challenges.

The dramatic spread of COVID-19 has threatened human lives, disrupted livelihoods, and affected trade, economy and businesses across the globe. The global economy has begun to show major disruptions and is heading toward a severe recession with an unprecedented economic crisis. As the global economy is highly integrated and interdependent through the global supply chains, it has been profoundly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although all countries have faced difficulties due to Covid-19, South Asian countries in particular have had to deal with a more challenging situation due to their large population, weak health facilities, high poverty rates, low socio-economic conditions, poor social protection systems, limited access to water and sanitation, and inadequate living space, necessary to maintain physical distancing and take other required measures to contain this pandemic. To contain the spread of the virus, South Asian countries have imposed stringent lockdowns, which have consequently affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the region, where a third of world's poor live. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the existing and prospective impacts, risks and challenges of Covid-19 on key social and economic sectors including migration, tourism, informal sector, agriculture and rural livelihoods. The analysis revealed that COVID-19 is likely to affect economic growth, increase fiscal deficit and monetary burden, increase the risks of macroeconomic instability, decrease migration and remittance, reduce income from travel and tourism, and result in dwindling micro-small and medium industries and informal businesses. This is likely to deepen poverty and increase unemployment and the risks of hunger and food insecurity. If not addressed properly, this may reinforce existing inequalities, break social harmony, and increase tension and turbulence. The economic and social costs of the COVID-19 outbreak are therefore likely to be significant and long-lasting in South Asia.