Investigation of the marine bacterial community along the coastline of the Gulf of Thailand.

The Gulf of Thailand provides many services to the Thai population, and human activities may influence the diversity of microorganisms in the seawater. Information of the microorganisms' profile which inhabit the coastline can be used to monitor the water quality. This study aimed to investigate the bacterial community in the waters along the coastline provinces, including Rayong, Chonburi, Prachuap Kiri Khan, and Nakhon Sri Thammarat. Seawater samples were collected at each site, and the conductivity, pH, salinity, temperature, and turbidity were measured. The samples were subjected to whole DNA extraction, 16S rRNA amplification, next-generation sequencing, and statistical analysis to identify the bacterial diversity and analyse the effects of water parameters on the bacterial community. The dominant bacterial phyla found were Proteobacteria, Bacteroidota, and Cyanobacteria. Spearman rank correlation analysis revealed a high correlation of Pseudoalteromonas, the NS5 marine group, Lachnospiraceae, Marinobacterium, Mariviven, and Vibrio with the seawater parameters. The predatory bacteria Peredibacter and Halobacteriovorax were reported among these bacterial communities for the first time in the Gulf of Thailand. Interestingly, Akkermansia, a novel candidate for next-generation probiotics to improve human health, was also found in the sample from Nakhon Sri Thammarat Province. Although the rich-ness and diversity of the bacterial communities differed among sampling sites, it is a possible source of many valuable bacteria for future use.

Skeletal impact of parathyroidectomy on patients with primary hyperparathyroidism: a Systematic review and Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Parathyroidectomy is recommended for curing primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT), although uncertainty remains regarding the extent of fracture risk reduction following surgery. OBJECTIVE: To compare fracture risk and bone mineral density (BMD) changes in patients with PHPT undergoing parathyroidectomy (PTX) versus observation (OBS). DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library until September 2022, including randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies, and reviewed citations from previous reviews. STUDY SELECTION: Among 1,260 initial records, 48 eligible articles from 35 studies (5 RCTs; 30 cohorts) included PHPT patients receiving PTX or OBS interventions with reported fracture events at any site, including the hip, spine, or forearm, and/or BMD changes at each location. DATA EXTRACTION: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines by two independent reviewers. DATA SYNTHESIS: In 238,188 PHPT patients (PTX: 73,778 vs. OBS: 164,410), parathyroidectomy significantly reduced fractures at any site (RR, 0.80; 95%CI, 0.74-0.86) compared to observation. In 237,217 patients (PTX: 73,458 vs. OBS: 163,759), the risk of hip fractures decreased (RR, 0.63; 95%CI, 0.52-0.76). No reduction in forearm and vertebral fractures was observed in 3,574 and 3,795 patients, respectively. The annual percentage BMD changes from baseline were higher in the PTX group: femoral neck, 1.91% (95%CI, 1.14-2.68); hip, 1.75% (95%CI, 0.58-2.92); radius, 1.75% (95%CI, 0.31-3.18); spine, 2.13% (95%CI, 1.16-3.10). CONCLUSIONS: Parathyroidectomy significantly reduced overall and hip fracture risks in PHPT patients. Despite minimal BMD increase, the substantial decrease in fracture risk suggests additional benefits of PTX beyond mineral content enhancement.

Non­surgical outcomes and risk factors for pulmonary metastasis from giant cell tumor of bone.

The present study detailed four factors associated with an increased risk of pulmonary metastasis, age, pathological fracture, local recurrence and mode of treatment. Local recurrence and pathological fracture were independent risk factors for developing metastasis. From January 2016 to December 2021, data from 50 patients diagnosed with giant cell tumor of bone (GCTB) treated in Khon Kaen Hospital, Thailand, were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors, including age at diagnosis, location of GCTB, clinical presentation, Campanacci stage and no. of local recurrences, for GCTB-induced pulmonary metastasis were evaluated using univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Of the 50 patients analyzed, 9 patients (18%), with a mean age of 46.3 years (range, 18-68 years), developed pulmonary metastasis. No patients died from pulmonary metastasis in the present study. Statistically significant associations were observed between the development of metastasis and both clinical fracture [odds ratio (OR), 6.107; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-34.70] and local recurrence (OR, 6.48; 95% CI, 1.03-40.87). Patients presenting with both a clinical fracture and local tumor recurrence require more rigorous clinical observation due to the significantly elevated risk of disease progression.

Effectiveness of acute myocardial infarction interventions on selected outcomes among community dwelling-older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The older adult is an influential group experiencing acute myocardial infarction, delaying treatment and causing a high mortality rate. Factors related to their delay differ from other age groups, and their specific characteristics are barriers to recognizing their symptoms and learning new information. Therefore, specific innovative methods related to their limitations and needs should be considered when developing interventions promoting on-time treatment. This study aims to review intervention details and their effects on knowledge, belief, decision-making, rate of calling 911, and mortality among community-dwelling older adults at risk or after a first myocardial infarction compared to receiving usual care or no intervention. The 12 databases were searched unlimitedly until July 30, 2022. The two researchers independently reviewed the articles, and the third reviewer broke the tight when disagreement was found. Data were extracted, kinds of interventions were grouped, and intervention details were summarized narratively. Finally, the selected outcomes were analyzed by meta-analysis using a fixed and a random-effects model. Eleven articles were for final review. Interventions were categorized into eight groups: direct mail, community-based, multi-group health education, innovation methods, tailored education, structured education, tricked intervention promoting memory and concern, and nurse-based case management. Finally, the meta-analysis found that only innovative methods could increase the rate of calling 911 and taking aspirin (Odd ratio = 2.55; 95% CI = 1.01-6.44). In contrast, there were no statistically significant differences in the rate of affecting time to first unplanned readmission or death and time delay to the emergency room. Results recommended that effective and specific interventions must be developed and strengthened to promote older adults surviving acute myocardial infarction.Clinical Trial Registration Number: PROSPERO CRD42021247136.

Factors affecting bus accident severity in Thailand: A multinomial logit model.

Bus accidents are a serious issue, with high rates of injury and fatality in Thailand. However, no studies have been conducted on the factors affecting bus accident severity in Thailand. A cross-sectional study was conducted by the Department of Highways, Thailand over the 2010-2019 period. A multinomial logit model was used to evaluate the factors associated with bus accident severity. This model divided accidents into three categories: non-injury, injury, and fatality. The risk factors consisted of three major categories: the bus driver, characteristics of the crash, and environmental characteristics. The results showed that characteristics of the bus driver, the crash, and the environment where the crash occurred all increased the probability of bus accidents causing injury. These three main factors included driving on sloped roads (relative risk ratio [RRR] 3.03, 95% confidence level [CI] 1.73 to 5.30), drowsy driving (RRR 2.60, 95% CI 1.71 to 3.96), and driving in the wrong direction (RRR 2.37, 95% CI 1.77 to 3.19). Moreover, the factors that increased the probability of the accidents causing fatality were drowsy driving (RRR 3.40, 95% CI 2.07 to 5.57) and drivers not obeying or following traffic rules (RRR 3.02, 95% CI 1.95 to 4.67), especially in the northern part of Thailand (RRR 3.01, 95% CI 1.98 to 4.62). The results can provide a valuable resource to help road authorities in development targeting road safety programs at sloped roads in the northern part of Thailand. Stakeholders should increase road safety efforts and implement campaigns, such as raising public awareness of the risks of not obeying or following traffic rules and drowsy driving which could possibly reduce the risk of both injury and fatality.

The Association between Resilience and Psychological Distress during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

This study examined the association between resilience and psychological distress in healthcare workers, the general population, and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched the PubMed, Web of Science, PsycInfo, Science Direct, and Nursing and Allied Health databases. Included articles examined healthcare workers (e.g., physicians and nurses), the general population, and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies of exposure to other infectious diseases related to epidemics or pandemics (e.g., SARS and MERS) were excluded. This study was performed following the Cooper matrix review method and PRISMA guidelines, followed by a meta-analysis of study results using R version 4.1.2. A random effect model was used for the pooled analysis. This study was registered with PROSPERO (registration No. CRD42021261429). Based on the meta-analysis, we found a moderate negative relationship between overall resilience and psychological distress (r = -0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.45 to -0.38, p < 0.001). For the subgroup analysis, a moderately significant negative relationship between overall resilience and psychological distress was found among healthcare workers (r = -0.39, 95% CI: -0.44 to -0.33, p < 0.001), which was weaker than in the general population (r = -0.45, 95% CI: -0.50 to -0.39, p < 0.001) and in patients (r = -0.43; 95% CI: -0.52 to -0.33; p < 0.001). This association was robust, although the heterogeneity among individual effect sizes was substantial (I2 = 94%, 99%, and 74%, respectively). This study revealed a moderate negative relationship between resilience and psychological distress in healthcare workers, the general population, and patients. For all these populations, interventions and resources are needed to improve individuals' resilience and ability to cope with psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic and in future disease outbreaks.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding "New Normal" Guidelines and Quality of Life Among Thai People During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Online Cross-Sectional Survey.

In Thailand, strict prevention and control strategies have been implemented to mitigate the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). "New normal" guidelines and a series of mobile health applications have been introduced by the healthcare sector and implemented to aid the disease control monitoring and prevention of widespread outbreaks. This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding "new normal" guidelines and quality of life (QOL) among Thai people during the COVID-19 outbreak, and to determine the association between KA, QOL, and practices. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted from 7 June to 12 September 2021 among Thai people in Public Health Region 6 aged ≥ 18 years old. Of the 506 survey participants, 80.3% were female, and 65.0% were 25-59 years old. The survey revealed that 52.2% of participants were classified as having more accurate knowledge, 58.9% were classified as having more positive attitudes, and 80.8% were classified as having more frequent practices regarding "new normal" guidelines, and 54.7% had high QOL. Of the participants, 93.7% agreed that "people who have been fully vaccinated should wear a mask while outside," and 95.5% wore a face mask outdoors in crowded places. However, 60.9% of participants misunderstood some details regarding online applications for contact tracing and vaccination services, 44.2% felt that these applications were difficult to use, and 33.4% rarely or never downloaded or used these applications. In logistic regression analyses, accurate knowledge of COVID-19 was associated with higher education, being a government employee, monthly family income > 30,000 Thai Baht, and regular use of social media. More positive attitudes regarding "new normal" guidelines and high QOL were associated with positive practices. High QOL was associated with older age, and higher education. Enhancement of attitudes and QOL is also important for improving practices in the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant factors identified in KAP will be crucial for developing effective prevention and control programs to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To implement mobile health applications effectively, more work is required to improve the ease of use and promotion strategies.

Outpatient Department Visits and Mortality with Various Causes Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution in the Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand.

The Eastern Economic Corridor in Thailand is undergoing development, but industrial activities are causing serious air pollution. This study aimed to examine the effects of particulate matter (PM10), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), SO2, NO2, O3, and CO on outpatient department (OPD) visits and mortality with various causes in the Eastern Economic Corridor, Thailand between 2013 and 2019 using a case-crossover design and conditional Poisson model. The corresponding burden of disease due to air pollution exposure was calculated. A 1 µg/m3 increase in the PM10 was associated with significant increases in OPD visits for circulatory diseases (0.22, 95% CI 0.01, 0.34), respiratory diseases (0.21, 95% CI 0.13, 0.28), and skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases (0.18, 95% CI 0.10, 0.26). By contrast, a 1 µg/m3 increase in the PM10 was associated with significant increases in mortality from skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases (0.79, 95% CI 0.04, 1.56). A 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with significant increases in mortality from circulatory diseases (0.75, 95% CI 0.20, 1.34), respiratory diseases (0.82, 95% CI 0.02, 1.63), and skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases (2.91, 95% CI 0.99, 4.86). The highest OPD burden was for circulatory diseases. Respiratory effects were attributed to PM10 exceeding the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) of Thailand (120 µg/m3). The highest morbidity burden was for skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases attributed to PM2.5 concentrations that exceeded the NAAQs (50 µg/m3). PM pollution in the EEC could strongly contribute to OPD visits and morbidity from various diseases. Preventing PM10 concentrations from being higher than 60 µg/m3 could decrease OPD visits by more than 33,265 and 29,813 for circulatory and respiratory diseases, respectively. Our study suggests that such pollution increases the risks of OPD visits and mortality in various causes in the Thai EEC. Reducing the ambient air pollution concentration of NAAQSs in Thailand could reduce the health effect on the Thai population.

Efficacy of Cabbage Leaf versus Cooling Gel Pad or Diclofenac Gel for Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Open-Labeled Controlled Clinical Trial.

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the most common joint degeneration ailments adversely affecting the elderly population by impairing their physical movements and quality of life. This study aimed to establish the efficacy of cabbage leaf application in alleviating pain-related distress and positively improving OA conditions. Materials and Methods: Patients with moderate to severe (grades 3-4) OA by the Kellgren and Lawrence grading system with a poor to good Oxford Knee Score were selected for enrollment in this clinical trial. The participants were divided into three intervention groups: the cooling gel pad group for 20 minutes duration once a day (n = 20), the diclofenac gel group for 4 times a day (n = 20) as the control group (total n = 40), and the cabbage leaf group for 1-hour duration once a day (n = 20) as the experimental group (total n = 20). All trial participants were trained to record their Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) pain score and Oxford Knee Score and were advised to undergo weekly follow-ups and assessment of the outcome at 4 weeks. Data were analyzed by the paired t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results: The cabbage leaf group and cooling gel pad group showed a significant difference in both the Oxford Knee Score (p < 0.001 in both groups) and NRS score (p < 0.001 in both groups) before and after the intervention, by using the paired t-test. The three study procedures were found to be significantly different with respect to both the Oxford Knee Score (p=0.012) and NRS score (p < 0.001), by using ANOVA. Conclusion: This study clinically demonstrated that cabbage leaf application and cooling gel pad application showed similar improvements in reducing OA symptoms in terms of the overall NRS score and Oxford Knee Score. Their therapeutic effectiveness was better than that of diclofenac gel.

Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission - a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys.

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Infectious diseases, particularly those caused by airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, spread by social contact, and understanding how people mix is critical in controlling outbreaks. To explore these patterns, researchers typically carry out large contact surveys. Participants are asked for personal information (such as gender, age and occupation), as well as details of recent social contacts, usually those that happened in the last 24 hours. This information includes, the age and gender of the contact, where the interaction happened, how long it lasted, and whether it involved physical touch. These kinds of surveys help scientists to predict how infectious diseases might spread. But there is a problem: most of the data come from high-income countries, and there is evidence to suggest that social contact patterns differ between places. Therefore, data from these countries might not be useful for predicting how infections spread in lower-income regions. Here, Mousa et al. have collected and combined data from 27 contact surveys carried out before the COVID-19 pandemic to see how baseline social interactions vary between high- and lower-income settings. The comparison revealed that, in higher-income countries, the number of daily contacts people made decreased with age. But, in lower-income countries, younger and older individuals made similar numbers of contacts and mixed with all age groups. In higher-income countries, more contacts happened at work or school, while in low-income settings, more interactions happened at home and people were also more likely to live in larger, intergenerational households. Mousa et al. also found that gender affected how long contacts lasted and whether they involved physical contact, both of which are key risk factors for transmitting airborne pathogens. These findings can help researchers to predict how infectious diseases might spread in different settings. They can also be used to assess how effective non-medical restrictions, like shielding of the elderly and workplace closures, will be at reducing transmissions in different parts of the world.

Drinking and Night-Time Driving May Increase the Risk of Severe Health Outcomes: A 5-Year Retrospective Study of Traffic Injuries among International Travelers at a University Hospital Emergency Center in Thailand.

Road traffic injury (RTI) is a leading cause of death in developing countries. This burden affects not only locals, but also international travelers. Data on international travelers with RTIs in Thailand, especially from a medical perspective, are limited. This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with severe health outcomes following RTIs among international travelers at a university hospital emergency center in Thailand from January 2015 to December 2019. The retrieved data consisted of demographics, risks, preventive factors, and health outcomes. The severity of outcome was classified as fatality, hospitalization, or non-severe. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to identify the possible determinants of severity of health outcome among international travelers with RTI. A total of 720 travelers with RTIs (69% males; 82.5% were Southeast Asian) were included, with a mean age of 28.5 years. Of these, 144 (20%) had severe health outcomes: 64 (9%) fatalities and 80 (11%) hospitalizations. The level of severity of outcome was not associated with travelers' demographics, but was associated with conventional risk factors, i.e., motorcycle use, alcohol/drug use, night-time driving, and less use of seatbelt/helmet. In a multinomial logistic regression analysis, alcohol drinking (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-4.55) and night-time driving (AOR 2.54, 95% CI 1.36-4.75) were associated with hospitalization. Patients who had a history of tetanus vaccination were less likely to die (AOR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.81). In conclusion, one-fifth of RTIs resulted in severe health outcomes, and 9% were fatal. Road safety campaigns in Thailand should target travelers of all nationalities. Interventions that enhance travelers' safety practices and proper preparation for road accidents should be explored further.

Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. METHODS: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings. RESULTS: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made. CONCLUSIONS: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. FUNDING: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Assessing the impacts of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in the Southeast Asia Region using a mathematical modeling approach.

This study aimed to predict the impacts of shorter duration treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) on both MDR-TB percentage among new cases and overall MDR-TB cases in the WHO Southeast Asia Region. A deterministic compartmental model was constructed to describe both the transmission of TB and the MDR-TB situation in the Southeast Asia region. The population-level impacts of short-course treatment regimens were compared with the impacts of conventional regimens. Multi-way analysis was used to evaluate the impact by varying programmatic factors (eligibility for short-course MDR-TB treatment, treatment initiation, and drug susceptibility test (DST) coverage). The model predicted that overall TB incidence will be reduced from 246 (95% credible intervals (CrI), 221-275) per 100,000 population in 2020 to 239 (95% CrI, 215-267) per 100,000 population in 2035, with a modest reduction of 2.8% (95% CrI, 2.7%-2.9%). Despite the slight reduction in overall TB infections, the model predicted that the MDR-TB percentage among newly notified TB infections will remain steady, with 2.4% (95% CrI, 2.1-2.9) in 2020 and 2.5% (95% CrI, 2.3-3.1) in 2035, using conventional MDR-TB treatment. With the introduction of short-course regimens to treat MDR-TB, the development of resistance can be slowed by 38.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI), 35.9-41.3) reduction in MDR-TB case number, and 37.6% (95% CI, 34.9-40.3) reduction in MDR-TB percentage among new TB infections over the 30-year period compared with the baseline using the standard treatment regimen. The multi-way analysis showed eligibility for short-course treatment and treatment initiation greatly influenced the impacts of short-course treatment regimens on reductions in MDR-TB cases and percentage resistance among new infections. Policies which promote the expansion of short-course regimens and early MDR-TB treatment initiation should be considered along with other interventions to tackle antimicrobial resistance in the region.

CAG repeat instability in embryonic stem cells and derivative spermatogenic cells of transgenic Huntington's disease monkey.

PURPOSE: The expansion of CAG (glutamine; Q) trinucleotide repeats (TNRs) predominantly occurs through male lineage in Huntington's disease (HD). As a result, offspring will have larger CAG repeats compared to their fathers, which causes an earlier onset of the disease called genetic anticipation. This study aims to develop a novel in vitro model to replicate CAG repeat instability in early spermatogenesis and demonstrate the biological process of genetic anticipation by using the HD stem cell model for the first time. METHODS: HD rhesus monkey embryonic stem cells (rESCs) were cultured in vitro for an extended period. Male rESCs were used to derive spermatogenic cells in vitro with a 10-day differentiation. The assessment of CAG repeat instability was performed by GeneScan and curve fit analysis. RESULTS: Spermatogenic cells derived from rESCs exhibit progressive expansion of CAG repeats with high daily expansion rates compared to the extended culture of rESCs. The expansion of CAG repeats is cell type-specific and size-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we report a novel stem cell model that replicates genome instability and CAG repeat expansion in in vitro derived HD monkey spermatogenic cells. The in vitro spermatogenic cell model opens a new opportunity for studying TNR instability and the underlying mechanism of genetic anticipation, not only in HD but also in other TNR diseases.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses for the prioritisation of the four available rotavirus vaccines in the national immunisation programme in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhoea in children less than five years old in Thailand. Vaccination has been shown to be an effective intervention to prevent rotavirus infections but has yet to be enlisted in the national immunisation programme. This study aimed to assess the cost-utility of introducing rotavirus vaccines, taking all WHO-prequalified vaccines into consideration. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis was performed using a transmission dynamic model to estimate, from a societal perspective, the costs and outcomes of four WHO-prequalified rotavirus vaccines: Rotarix®, RotaTeq®, ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL®. The model was used to simulate the impact of introducing the vaccines among children aged < 1 year and compare this with no rotavirus vaccination. The vaccination programme was considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than a threshold of USD 5,110 per QALY gained. RESULTS: Overall, without the vaccine, the model predicted the average annual incidence of rotavirus to be 312,118 cases. With rotavirus vaccination at a coverage of more than 95%, the average number of rotavirus cases averted was estimated to be 144,299 per year. All rotavirus vaccines were cost-saving. ROTASIIL® was the most cost-saving option, followed by ROTAVAC®, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, providing average cost-savings of USD 32, 31, 23 and 22 million per year, respectively, with 999 QALYs gained. All vaccines remained cost-saving with lower QALYs gained, even when ignoring indirect beneficial effects. The net saving to the healthcare system when implementing any one of these vaccines would be between USD 13 and 33 million per year. CONCLUSION: Rotavirus vaccines should be included in the national vaccination programme in Thailand. Implementing any one of these four WHO-prequalified vaccines would reduce government healthcare spending while yielding health benefits to the population.

Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies on the First Wave and Predicting the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Thailand: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. This study aimed to assess and predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Thailand, including the preparation and evaluation of intervention strategies. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model was implemented with model parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach. The model's projections showed that the highest daily reported incidence of COVID-19 would be approximately 140 cases (95% credible interval, CrI: 83-170 cases) by the end of March 2020. After Thailand declared an emergency decree, the numbers of new cases and case fatalities decreased, with no new imported cases. According to the model's predictions, the incidence would be zero at the end of June if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were strictly and widely implemented. These stringent NPIs reduced the effective reproductive number (Rt) to 0.73 per day (95% CrI: 0.53-0.93) during April and May. Sensitivity analysis showed that contact rate, hand washing, and face mask wearing effectiveness were the parameters that most influenced the number of reported daily new cases. Our evaluation shows that Thailand's intervention strategies have been highly effective in mitigating disease propagation. Continuing with these strict disease prevention behaviors could minimize the risk of a new COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand.

Contact Mixing Patterns and Population Movement among Migrant Workers in an Urban Setting in Thailand.

Data relating to contact mixing patterns among humans are essential for the accurate modeling of infectious disease transmission dynamics. Here, we describe contact mixing patterns among migrant workers in urban settings in Thailand, based on a survey of 369 migrant workers of three nationalities. Respondents recorded their demographic data, including age, sex, nationality, workplace, income, and education. Each respondent chose a single day to record their contacts; this resulted in a total of more than 8300 contacts. The characteristics of contacts were recorded, including their age, sex, nationality, location of contact, and occurrence of physical contact. More than 75% of all contacts occurred among migrants aged 15 to 39 years. The contacts were highly clustered in this age group among migrant workers of all three nationalities. There were far fewer contacts between migrant workers with younger and older age groups. The pattern varied slightly among different nationalities, which was mostly dependent upon the types of jobs taken. Half of migrant workers always returned to their home country at most once a year and on a seasonal basis. The present study has helped us gain a better understanding of contact mixing patterns among migrant workers in urban settings. This information is useful both when simulating disease epidemics and for guiding optimal disease control strategies among this vulnerable section of the population.

Modeling household dynamics on Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the most common cause of respiratory tract infection in infants and children and shows increasing trend among elderly people worldwide. In many developing country settings, population and household structures have gone through some significant changes in the past decades, namely fewer births, more elderly population, and smaller household size but more RSV high-risk individuals. These dynamics have been captured in a mathematical model with RSV transmission dynamics to predict the disease burden on the detailed population for future targeted interventions. The population and disease dynamics model was constructed and tested against the hospitalization data for Acute Lower Respiratory Tract Infection due to RSV in rural Thai settings between 2005 and 2011. The proportion of extended families is predicted to increase by about 10% from 2005 to 2020, especially for those with elderly population, while the classic nuclear family type (with adults and children) will decline by about 10%. For RSV, infections from extended family type (approximately 60% of all household types) have majorly contributed to the force of infection (FOI). While the model predicted the increase of FOI from the extended family by 15% from 2005 to 2020, the FOI contributed by other household types would be either stable or decrease in the same time period. RSV incidence rate is predominantly high among babies (92.2%) and has been predicted to decrease slightly over time (from 940 to 864 cases per 100,000 population by 2020), while the incidence rates among children and elderly people may remain steadily low over the same period. However, the estimated incidence rates among elderly people were twice than those in children. The model predicts that approximately 60% of FOI for RSV will come from members of the extended family type. The incidence rate of RSV among children and elderly in extended families was about 20 times lower than that in infants and the trend is steady. Targeted intervention strategies, such as health education in some specific groups and targeted vaccination, may be considered, with the focus on extended family type. Target interventions on babies can lessen the transmission to children and elderly especially when transmission within households of extended family type is high.

A Population Dynamic Model to Assess the Diabetes Screening and Reporting Programs and Project the Burden of Undiagnosed Diabetes in Thailand.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is rising worldwide, exacerbated by aging populations. We estimated and predicted the diabetes burden and mortality due to undiagnosed diabetes together with screening program efficacy and reporting completeness in Thailand, in the context of demographic changes. An age and sex structured dynamic model including demographic and diagnostic processes was constructed. The model was validated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The prevalence of DM was predicted to increase from 6.5% (95% credible interval: 6.3-6.7%) in 2015 to 10.69% (10.4-11.0%) in 2035, with the largest increase (72%) among 60 years or older. Out of the total DM cases in 2015, the percentage of undiagnosed DM cases was 18.2% (17.4-18.9%), with males higher than females (p-value < 0.01). The highest group with undiagnosed DM was those aged less than 39 years old, 74.2% (73.7-74.7%). The mortality of undiagnosed DM was ten-fold greater than the mortality of those with diagnosed DM. The estimated coverage of diabetes positive screening programs was ten-fold greater for elderly compared to young. The positive screening rate among females was estimated to be significantly higher than those in males. Of the diagnoses, 87.4% (87.0-87.8%) were reported. Targeting screening programs and good reporting systems will be essential to reduce the burden of disease.

Modelling population dynamics and seasonal movement to assess and predict the burden of melioidosis.

BACKGROUND: Melioidosis is an infectious disease that is transmitted mainly through contact with contaminated soil or water, and exhibits marked seasonality in most settings, including Southeast Asia. In this study, we used mathematical modelling to examine the impacts of such demographic changes on melioidosis incidence, and to predict the disease burden in a developing country such as Thailand. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A melioidosis infection model was constructed which included demographic data, diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence, and melioidosis disease processes. The model was fitted to reported melioidosis incidence in Thailand by age, sex, and geographical area, between 2008 and 2015, using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The model was then used to predict the disease burden and future trends of melioidosis incidence in Thailand. Our model predicted two-fold higher incidence rates of melioidosis compared with national surveillance data from 2015. The estimated incidence rates among males were two-fold greater than those in females. Furthermore, the melioidosis incidence rates in the Northeast region population, and among the transient population, were more than double compared to the non-Northeast region population. The highest incidence rates occurred in males aged 45-59 years old for all regions. The average incidence rate of melioidosis between 2005 and 2035 was predicted to be 11.42 to 12.78 per 100,000 population per year, with a slightly increasing trend. Overall, it was estimated that about half of all cases of melioidosis were symptomatic. In addition, the model suggested a greater susceptibility to melioidosis in diabetic compared with non-diabetic individuals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The increasing trend of melioidosis incidence rates was significantly higher among working-age Northeast and transient populations, males aged ≥45 years old, and diabetic individuals. Targeted intervention strategies, such as health education and awareness raising initiatives, should be implemented on high-risk groups, such as those living in the Northeast region, and the seasonally transient population.