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OBJECTIVE: Symptom-triggered testing for ovarian cancer was introduced to the UK whereby symptomatic women undergo an ultrasound scan and serum CA125, and are referred to hospital within 2 weeks if these are abnormal. The potential value of symptom-triggered testing in the detection of early-stage disease or low tumor burden remains unclear in women with high grade serous ovarian cancer. In this descriptive study, we report on the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, disease distribution, and complete cytoreduction rates in women presenting via the fast-track pathway and who were diagnosed with high grade serous ovarian cancer. METHODS: We analyzed the dataset from Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS), a single-arm prospective diagnostic test accuracy study recruiting from 24 hospitals in the UK. The aim of ROCkeTS is to validate risk prediction models in symptomatic women. We undertook an opportunistic analysis for women recruited between June 2015 to July 2022 and who were diagnosed with high grade serous ovarian cancer via the fast-track pathway. Women presenting with symptoms suspicious for ovarian cancer receive a CA125 blood test and an ultrasound scan if the CA125 level is abnormal. If either of these is abnormal, women are referred to secondary care within 2 weeks. Histology details were available on all women who underwent surgery or biopsy within 3 months of recruitment. Women who did not undergo surgery or biopsy at 3 months were followed up for 12 months as per the national guidelines in the UK. In this descriptive study, we report on patient demographics (age and menopausal status), WHO performance status, FIGO stage at diagnosis, disease distribution (low/pelvic confined, moderate/extending to mid-abdomen, high/extending to upper abdomen) and complete cytoreduction rates in women who underwent surgery. RESULTS: Of 1741 participants recruited via the fast-track pathway, 119 (6.8%) were diagnosed with high grade serous ovarian cancer. The median age was 63 years (range 32-89). Of these, 112 (94.1%) patients had a performance status of 0 and 1, 30 (25.2%) were diagnosed with stages I/II, and the disease distribution was low-to-moderate in 77 (64.7%). Complete and optimal cytoreduction were achieved in 73 (61.3%) and 18 (15.1%). The extent of disease was low in 43 of 119 (36.1%), moderate in 34 of 119 (28.6%), high in 32 of 119 (26.9%), and not available in 10 of 119 (8.4%). Nearly two thirds, that is 78 of 119 (65.5%) women with high grade serous ovarian cancer, underwent primary debulking surgery, 36 of 119 (30.3%) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery, and 5 of 119 (4.2%) women did not undergo surgery. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that one in four women identified with high grade serous ovarian cancer through the fast-track pathway following symptom-triggered testing was diagnosed with early-stage disease. Symptom-triggered testing may help identify women with a low disease burden, potentially contributing to high complete cytoreduction rates.
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An assessment of the validity of studies is an essential component of most evidence syntheses (systematic reviews) to understand the risk of bias (ROB) and applicability of the evidence. A formal validity assessment requires a structured and comprehensive approach, which can be implemented using an assessment tool, specifically developed for this purpose. Many different tools are available, marking it difficult for researchers to choose the best tool for their evidence synthesis. We have established the LATITUDES Network to assist researchers in identifying the most appropriate tool to use in their evidence synthesis and to support researchers using these tools. The LATITUDES website (www.latitudes-network.org) includes a searchable library of validity assessment tools designed for use in evidence syntheses, bringing tools together in one place and providing researchers with clear information on suitable tools, categorized by study design. The website also provides links to training on the process of validity assessment and a list of tools currently under development. To be included in the LATITUDES library, tools must meet the following criteria: be designed for use in evidence syntheses; assess multidimensional aspects of validity of individual studies or reviews; and be developed for use by the wider research community rather than for a single research group. We highlight 'key' tools, those that are considered to be the most robust and reliable tools based on prespecified criteria agreed in conjunction with our advisory board, an international group of experts in the area of evidence synthesis and ROB tools.
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OBJECTIVES: Magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) interpretation of Crohn's disease (CD) is subjective and uses 2D analysis. We evaluated the feasibility of volumetric measurement of terminal ileal CD on MRE compared to endoscopy and sMARIA, and the responsiveness of volumetric changes to biologics. METHODS: CD patients with MRE and contemporaneous CD endoscopic index of severity-scored ileocolonoscopy were included. A centreline was placed through the terminal ileum (TI) lumen defining the diseased bowel length on the T2-weighted non-fat saturated sequence, used by two radiologists to independently segment the bowel wall to measure volume (phase 1). In phase 2, we measured disease volume in patients treated with biologics, who had undergone pre- and post-treatment MRE, with treatment response classified via global physician assessment. RESULTS: Phase 1 comprised 30 patients (median age 29 (IQR 24, 34) years). Phase 2 included 12 patients (25 years (22, 38)). In phase 1, the mean of the radiologist-measured volumes was used for analysis. The median disease volume in those with endoscopically active CD was 20.9 cm3 (IQR 11.3, 44.0) compared to 5.7 cm3 (2.9, 9.8) with normal endoscopy. The mean difference in disease volume between the radiologists was 3.0 cm3 (limits of agreement -21.8, 15.9). The median disease volume of patients with active CD by sMARIA was 15.0 cm3 (8.7, 44.0) compared to 2.85 cm3 (2.6, 3.1) for those with inactive CD. Pre- and post-treatment median disease volumes were 28.5 cm3 (26.4, 31.2), 11 cm3 (4.8, 16.6), respectively in biological responders, vs 26.8 cm3 (12.3, 48.7), 40.1 cm3 (10, 56.7) in non-responders. CONCLUSION: Volumetric measurement of terminal ileal CD by MRE is feasible, related to endoscopy and sMARIA activity, and responsive to biologics. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Measuring the whole volume of diseased bowel on MRE in CD is feasible, related to how biologically active the disease is when assessed by endoscopy and by existing MRE activity scores, and is sensitive to treatment response. KEY POINTS: MRE reporting for CD is subjective and uses 2D images rather than assessing the full disease volume. Volumetric measurement of CD relates to endoscopic activity and shows reduced disease volumes in treatment responders. This technique is an objective biomarker that can assess disease activity and treatment response, warranting validation.
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Background and objective: Radical prostatectomy (RP) is an established treatment for localised prostate cancer that can have a significant impact on urinary and sexual function, with recovery over time. Our aim was to describe functional recovery in the first year after RP, reporting descriptive outcomes alongside validated patient-reported outcome measure scores (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite, EPIC-26). Methods: Men undergoing RP between September 2015 and November 2019 completed EPIC-26 at baseline and 1, 3, 6, and 12 mo. Key findings and limitations: Overall, 2030 men consented to participation, underwent RP, and completed EPIC-26. At baseline, 97% were pad-free (1928/1996; 95% confidence interval [CI] 96-97%) and 77% were leak-free and pad-free (1529/1996; 95% CI 75-78), with a median EPIC-26 incontinence domain score of 100 (interquartile range [IQR] 86-100). At 12 mo, 65% were pad-free (904/1388; 95% CI 63-68%) and 42% were leak-free and pad-free (583/1388; 95% CI 39-45%), with a median EPIC-26 score of 76 (IQR 61-100). While one in three men reported wearing a pad at 12 mo, fewer than one in ten men needed more than 1 pad/d. At baseline, 1.9% reported a "moderate or big problem" with urine leakage, which increased to 9.7% at 12 mo. At baseline, the median sexual domain score among 1880 men was 74 (IQR 43-92) and 52% had erections sufficient for intercourse without medication (975/1880; 95% CI 50-54%). Among these 975 men, 630 responded at 12 mo, of whom 17% reported sufficient erections for intercourse (105/630; 95% CI 14-20%), without medication in 6% (37/630; 95% CI 4-8%) and needing medication in 11% (68/630; 95% CI 9-13%); the median EPIC-26 domain score was 26 (IQR 13-57). Conclusions and clinical implications: Reporting of functional outcomes after RP in terms of easily understood concepts such as pad-free and leak-free status, and erections with and with medication, alongside the classical report using EPIC-26 domain scores, increases the understanding of RP recovery patterns over the first year. Patient summary: At 12 months after surgery for prostate cancer, one in ten men reported a moderate or big problem with urine leakage and one in five men reported sufficient erections.
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OBJECTIVES: To review the findings of studies that have evaluated the design and/or usability of key risk of bias (RoB) tools for the assessment of RoB in primary studies, as categorized by the Library of Assessment Tools and InsTruments Used to assess Data validity in Evidence Synthesis Network (a searchable library of RoB tools for evidence synthesis): Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASessment Tool (PROBAST) , Risk of Bias-2 (RoB2), Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I), Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2), Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-Comparative (QUADAS-C), Quality Assessment of Prognostic Accuracy Studies (QUAPAS), Risk Of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Exposures (ROBINS-E), and the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) RoB checklist. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review of methodological studies. We conducted a forward citation search from the primary report of each tool, to identify primary studies that aimed to evaluate the design and/or usability of the tool. Two reviewers assessed studies for inclusion. We extracted tool features into Microsoft Word and used NVivo for document analysis, comprising a mix of deductive and inductive approaches. We summarized findings within each tool and explored common findings across tools. RESULTS: We identified 13 tool evaluations meeting our inclusion criteria: PROBAST (3), RoB2 (3), ROBINS-I (4), and QUADAS-2 (3). We identified no evaluations for the other tools. Evaluations varied in clinical topic area, methodology, approach to bias assessment, and tool user background. Some had limitations affecting generalizability. We identified common findings across tools for 6/14 themes: (1) challenging items (eg, RoB2/ROBINS-I "deviations from intended interventions" domain), (2) overall RoB judgment (concerns with overall risk calculation in PROBAST/ROBINS-I), (3) tool usability (concerns about complexity), (4) time to complete tool (varying demands on time, eg, depending on number of outcomes assessed), (5) user agreement (varied across tools), and (6) recommendations for future use (eg, piloting) and development (add intermediate domain answer to QUADAS-2/PROBAST; provide clearer guidance for all tools). Of the other eight themes, seven only had findings for the QUADAS-2 tool, limiting comparison across tools, and one ("reorganization of questions") had no findings. CONCLUSION: Evaluations of key RoB tools have posited common challenges and recommendations for tool use and development. These findings may be helpful to people who use or develop RoB tools. Guidance is necessary to support the design and implementation of future RoB tool evaluations.
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Sesgo , Humanos , Proyectos de Investigación/normasRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To investigate psychological correlates in women referred with suspected ovarian cancer via the fast-track pathway, explore how anxiety and distress levels change at 12 months post-testing, and report cancer conversion rates by age and referral pathway. DESIGN: Single-arm prospective cohort study. SETTING: Multicentre. Secondary care including outpatient clinics and emergency admissions. POPULATION: A cohort of 2596 newly presenting symptomatic women with a raised CA125 level, abnormal imaging or both. METHODS: Women completed anxiety and distress questionnaires at recruitment and at 12 months for those who had not undergone surgery or a biopsy within 3 months of recruitment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anxiety and distress levels measured using a six-item short form of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-6) and the Impact of Event Scale - Revised (IES-r) questionnaire. Ovarian cancer (OC) conversion rates by age, menopausal status and referral pathway. RESULTS: Overall, 1355/2596 (52.1%) and 1781/2596 (68.6%) experienced moderate-to-severe distress and anxiety, respectively, at recruitment. Younger age and emergency presentations had higher distress levels. The clinical category for anxiety and distress remained unchanged/worsened in 76% of respondents at 12 months, despite a non-cancer diagnosis. The OC rates by age were 1.6% (95% CI 0.5%-5.9%) for age <40 years and 10.9% (95% CI 8.7%-13.6%) for age ≥40 years. In women referred through fast-track pathways, 3.3% (95% CI 1.9%-5.7%) of pre- and 18.5% (95% CI 16.1%-21.0%) of postmenopausal women were diagnosed with OC. CONCLUSIONS: Women undergoing diagnostic testing display severe anxiety and distress. Younger women are especially vulnerable and should be targeted for support. Women under the age of 40 years have low conversion rates and we advocate reducing testing in this group to reduce the harms of testing.
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Ansiedad , Neoplasias Ováricas , Humanos , Femenino , Neoplasias Ováricas/psicología , Estudios Prospectivos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ansiedad/etiología , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Adulto , Anciano , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Derivación y Consulta/estadística & datos numéricos , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/psicología , Antígeno Ca-125/sangre , Distrés Psicológico , Estrés Psicológico/etiología , Estrés Psicológico/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the additional diagnostic benefit of diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and contrast enhanced (CE) images during MR enterography (MRE) of Crohn's disease. METHODS: Datasets from 73 patients (mean age 32; 40 male) (28 new-diagnosis, 45 relapsed) were read independently by two radiologists selected from a pool of 13. Radiologists interpreted datasets using three sequential sequence blocks: (1) T2 weighted and steady state free precession gradient echo (SSFP) images alone (T2^); (2) T2 weighted and SSFP images with DWI (T2 + DWI^) and; (3) T2 weighted images, SSFP, DWI and post-contrast enhanced (CE) T1 images (T2 + DWI + CE^), documenting presence, location, and activity of small bowel disease. For each sequence block, sensitivity and specificity (readers combined) was calculated against an outcome-based construct reference standard. RESULTS: 59/73 patients had small bowel disease. Per-patient sensitivity for disease detection was essentially identical (80 % [95 % CI 72, 86], 81 % [73,87], and 79 % [71,86] for T2^, T2 + DWI^and T2 + DWI + CE^respectively). Specificity was identical (82 % [64 to 92]). Per patient sensitivity for disease extent was 56 % (47,65), 56 % (47,65) and 52 % (43 to 61) respectively, and specificity was 82 % (64 to 92) for all blocks. Sensitivity for active disease was 97 % (90,99), 97 % (90,99) and 98 % (92,99), and specificity was also comparable between all sequence combination reads. Results were consistent across segments and newly diagnosed/relapse patients. CONCLUSION: There is no additional diagnostic benefit of adding either DWI or CE to T2 FSE and SSFP sequences for evaluating small bowel Crohn's disease, suggesting MRE protocols can be simplified safely.
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Medios de Contraste , Enfermedad de Crohn , Imagen de Difusión por Resonancia Magnética , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Humanos , Enfermedad de Crohn/diagnóstico por imagen , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Imagen de Difusión por Resonancia Magnética/métodos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Adolescente , Anciano , Adulto Joven , Aumento de la Imagen/métodosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To introduce and evaluate a simple method for assessing joint inflammation and structural damage on whole-body MRI (WBMRI) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), which is usable in clinical practice. METHODS: The proposed system utilises post-contrast Dixon WBMRI scans. Joints are assessed for synovitis (grade 0-2) and structural damage (present/absent) at 81 sites. The synovitis grading is based on features including above-normal intensity synovial enhancement, synovial hypertrophy, joint effusion, subarticular bone marrow oedema and peri-articular soft tissue oedema.This system was evaluated in a prospective study of 60 young people (47 patients with JIA and 13 controls with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal pain) who underwent a WBMRI. Three readers (blinded to diagnosis) independently reviewed all images and re-reviewed 20 individual scans. The intra- and inter-reader overall agreement (OA) and the intra- and inter-reader Gwet's agreement coefficients 2 (GAC2) were measured for the detection of a) participants with ≥1 joint with inflammation or structural damage and b) joint inflammation or structural damage for each joint. RESULTS: The inter-reader OA for detecting patients with ≥1 joint with inflammation, defined as grade 2 synovitis (G2), and ≥1 joint with structural damage were 80% and 73%, respectively. The intra-reader OA for readers 1-3 were 80-90% and 75-90% respectively. The inter-reader OA and GAC2 for joint inflammation (G2) at each joint were both ≥85% for all joints but were lower if grade 1 synovitis was included as positive. CONCLUSION: The intra- and inter-reader agreements of this WBMRI assessment system are adequate for assessing objective joint inflammation and damage in JIA.
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OBJECTIVES: To assess the frequency of joint inflammation detected by whole-body MRI (WBMRI) in young people (YP) with JIA and controls, and to determine the relationship between WBMRI-detected inflammation and clinical findings. METHODS: YP aged 14-24 years, with JIA (patients) or arthralgia without JIA (controls), recruited from one centre, underwent a WBMRI scan after formal clinical assessment. Consensus between at least two of the three independent radiologists was required to define inflammation and damage on WBMRI, according to predefined criteria. YP with JIA were deemed clinically active as per accepted definitions. The proportions of YP with positive WBMRI scans for joint inflammation (≥1 inflamed joint) as well as serum biomarkers were compared between active vs inactive JIA patients and controls. RESULTS: Forty-seven YP with JIA (25 active and 22 inactive patients) and 13 controls were included. WBMRI detected joint inflammation in 60% (28/47) patients with JIA vs 15% (2/13) controls (difference: 44%, 95% CI 20%, 68%). More active than inactive JIA patients had WBMRI-detected inflammation [76% (19/25) vs 41% (9/22), difference: 35% (95% CI 9%, 62%)], and this was associated with a specific biomarker signature. WBMRI identified inflammation in ≥ 1 clinically inactive joint in 23/47 (49%) patients (14/25 active vs 9/22 inactive JIA patients). CONCLUSIONS: WBMRI's validity in joint assessment was demonstrated by the higher frequency of inflammation in JIA patients vs controls, and in active vs inactive JIA patients. WBMRI found unsuspected joint inflammation in 49% YP with JIA, which needs further investigation of potential clinical implications.
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OBJECTIVES: Prognostic and diagnostic models must work in their intended clinical setting, proven via "external evaluation", preferably by authors uninvolved with model development. By systematic review, we determined the proportion of models published in high-impact radiological journals that are evaluated subsequently. METHODS: We hand-searched three radiological journals for multivariable diagnostic/prognostic models 2013-2015 inclusive, developed using regression. We assessed completeness of data presentation to allow subsequent external evaluation. We then searched literature to August 2022 to identify external evaluations of these index models. RESULTS: We identified 98 index studies (73 prognostic; 25 diagnostic) describing 145 models. Only 15 (15%) index studies presented an evaluation (two external). No model was updated. Only 20 (20%) studies presented a model equation. Just 7 (15%) studies developing Cox models presented a risk table, and just 4 (9%) presented the baseline hazard. Two (4%) studies developing non-Cox models presented the intercept. Just 20 (20%) articles presented a Kaplan-Meier curve of the final model. The 98 index studies attracted 4224 citations (including 559 self-citations), median 28 per study. We identified just six (6%) subsequent external evaluations of an index model, five of which were external evaluations by researchers uninvolved with model development, and from a different institution. CONCLUSIONS: Very few prognostic or diagnostic models published in radiological literature are evaluated externally, suggesting wasted research effort and resources. Authors' published models should present data sufficient to allow external evaluation by others. To achieve clinical utility, researchers should concentrate on model evaluation and updating rather than continual redevelopment. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The large majority of prognostic and diagnostic models published in high-impact radiological journals are never evaluated. It would be more efficient for researchers to evaluate existing models rather than practice continual redevelopment. KEY POINTS: ⢠Systematic review of highly cited radiological literature identified few diagnostic or prognostic models that were evaluated subsequently by researchers uninvolved with the original model. ⢠Published radiological models frequently omit important information necessary for others to perform an external evaluation: Only 20% of studies presented a model equation or nomogram. ⢠A large proportion of research citing published models focuses on redevelopment and ignores evaluation and updating, which would be a more efficient use of research resources.
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Publicaciones Periódicas como Asunto , Humanos , Pronóstico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Radiografía , NomogramasRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) are promising intestinal ultrasound (IUS) indices of CD, but studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. We compared SUS-CD and BUSS against histological and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) reference standards in a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicentre, multireader trial. METHODS: Participants recruited to the METRIC trial (ISRCTN03982913) were studied, including those with available terminal ileal (TI) biopsies. Sensitivity and specificity of SUS-CD and BUSS for TI CD activity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), from the prospective observations of the original METRIC trial sonographers against the histological activity index (HAI) and the simplified magnetic resonance index of activity (sMARIA). RESULTS: We included 284 patients (median 31.5 years, IQR 23-46) from 8 centres, who underwent IUS and MRE. Of these, 111 patients had available terminal ileal biopsies with HAI scoring. Against histology, sensitivity and specificity for active disease were 79% (95% CI 69-86%) and 50% (31-69%) for SUS-CD, and 66% (56-75%) and 68% (47-84%) for BUSS, respectively. Compared to sMARIA, the sensitivity and specificity for active CD were 81% (74-86%) and 75% (66-83%) for SUS-CD, and 68% (61-74%) and 85% (76-91%) for BUSS, respectively. The sensitivity of SUS-CD was significantly greater than that of BUSS against HAI and sMARIA (p < 0.001), but its specificity was significantly lower than of BUSS against the MRE reference standard (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Particularly when compared to MRE activity scoring, SUS-CD and BUSS are promising tools in a real-world clinical setting. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: When tested using data from a multicentre, multireader diagnostic accuracy trial, the simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) were clinically viable intestinal ultrasound indices that were reasonably sensitive and specific for terminal ileal Crohn's disease, especially when compared to a magnetic resonance reference standard. KEY POINTS: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease and bowel ultrasound score are promising intestinal ultrasound indices of Crohn's disease but to date studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. Compared to histology and the magnetic resonance reference standard in a multicentre, multireader setting, the sensitivity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease is significantly greater than that of bowel ultrasound score. The specificity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease was significantly lower than that of bowel ultrasound score compared to the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard. The specificity of both indices was numerically higher when the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard was adopted.
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Enfermedad de Crohn , Adulto , Humanos , Enfermedad de Crohn/patología , Íleon/diagnóstico por imagen , Íleon/patología , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Espectroscopía de Resonancia Magnética , Estudios ProspectivosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.
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Enfermedad Celíaca , Niño , Masculino , Adulto , Humanos , Femenino , Enfermedad Celíaca/diagnóstico , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Transglutaminasas , Inmunoglobulina A , Antígenos HLARESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To identify imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables potentially prognostic for surgical management of small bowel obstruction. METHODS: Two researchers systematically reviewed indexed literature 2001-2021 inclusive for imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables potentially predictive of surgical management of small bowl obstruction and/or ischaemia at surgery, where performed. Risk of bias was assessed. Contingency tables for variables reported in at least 5 studies were extracted and meta-analysed to identify strong evidence of association with clinical outcomes, across studies. RESULTS: Thirty-one studies were ultimately included, reporting 4638 patients (44 to 313 per study). 11 (35%) studies raised no risk of bias concerns. CT was the modality reported most (29 studies, 94%). Meta-analysis of 21 predictors identified 5 strongly associated with surgical intervention, 3 derived from CT (peritoneal free fluid, odds ratio [OR] 3.24, 95%CI 2.45 to 4.29; high grade obstruction, OR 3.58, 95%CI 2.46 to 5.20; mesenteric inflammation, OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.94 to 3.50; abdominal distension, OR 2.43, 95%CI 1.34 to 4.42; peritonism, OR 3.97, 95%CI 2.67 to 5.90) and one with conservative management (previous abdominopelvic surgery, OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.85). Meta-analysis of 10 predictors identified 3 strongly associated with ischaemia at surgery, 2 derived from CT (peritoneal free fluid, OR 3.49, 95%CI 2.28 to 5.35; bowel thickening, OR 3.26 95%CI 1.91 to 5.55; white cell count, OR 4.76, 95%CI 2.71 to 8.36). CONCLUSIONS: Systematic review of patients with small bowel obstruction identified four imaging, three clinical, and one laboratory predictors associated strongly with surgical intervention and/or ischaemia at surgery. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Via systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified imaging, clinical, and laboratory predictors strongly associated with surgical management of small bowel obstruction and/or ischaemia. Multivariable model development to guide management should incorporate these since they display strong evidence of potential utility. KEY POINTS: ⢠While multivariable models incorporating clinical, laboratory, and imaging factors could predict surgical management of small bowel obstruction, none are used widely. ⢠Via systematic review and meta-analysis we identified imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables strongly associated with surgical management and/or ischaemia at surgery. ⢠Development of multivariable models to guide management should incorporate these predictors, notably CT scanning, since they display strong evidence of potential utility.
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OBJECTIVES: To review the methodology of interobserver variability studies; including current practice and quality of conducting and reporting studies. METHODS: Interobserver variability studies between January 2019 and January 2020 were included; extracted data comprised of study characteristics, populations, variability measures, key results, and conclusions. Risk of bias was assessed using the COSMIN tool for assessing reliability and measurement error. RESULTS: Seventy-nine full-text studies were included covering various imaging tests and clinical areas. The median number of patients was 47 (IQR:23-88), and observers were 4 (IQR:2-7), with sample size justified in 12 (15%) studies. Most studies used static images (n = 75, 95%), where all observers interpreted images for all patients (n = 67, 85%). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) (n = 41, 52%), Kappa (κ) statistics (n = 31, 39%) and percentage agreement (n = 15, 19%) were most commonly used. Interpretation of variability estimates often did not correspond with study conclusions. The COSMIN risk of bias tool gave a very good/adequate rating for 52 studies (66%) including any studies that used variability measures listed in the tool. For studies using static images, some study design standards were not applicable and did not contribute to the overall rating. CONCLUSIONS: Interobserver variability studies have diverse study designs and methods, the impact of which requires further evaluation. Sample size for patients and observers was often small without justification. Most studies report ICC and κ values, which did not always coincide with the study conclusion. High ratings were assigned to many studies using the COSMIN risk of bias tool, with certain standards scored 'not applicable' when static images were used. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: The sample size for both patients and observers was often small without justification. For most studies, observers interpreted static images and did not evaluate the process of acquiring the imaging test, meaning it was not possible to assess many COSMIN risk of bias standards for studies with this design. Most studies reported intraclass correlation coefficient and κ statistics; study conclusions often did not correspond with results.
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Diagnóstico por Imagen , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Variaciones Dependientes del Observador , Reproducibilidad de los ResultadosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Violence perpetration is a key outcome to prevent for an important subgroup of individuals presenting to mental health services, including early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services. Needs and risks are typically assessed without structured methods, which could facilitate consistency and accuracy. Prediction tools, such as OxMIV (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool), could provide a structured risk stratification approach, but require external validation in clinical settings. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate and update OxMIV in first-episode psychosis and consider its benefit as a complement to clinical assessment. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of individuals assessed in two UK EIP services was included. Electronic health records were used to extract predictors and risk judgements made by assessing clinicians. Outcome data involved police and healthcare records for violence perpetration in the 12 months post-assessment. FINDINGS: Of 1145 individuals presenting to EIP services, 131 (11%) perpetrated violence during the 12 month follow-up. OxMIV showed good discrimination (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80). Calibration-in-the-large was also good after updating the model constant. Using a 10% cut-off, sensitivity was 71% (95% CI 63% to 80%), specificity 66% (63% to 69%), positive predictive value 22% (19% to 24%) and negative predictive value 95% (93% to 96%). In contrast, clinical judgement sensitivity was 40% and specificity 89%. Decision curve analysis showed net benefit of OxMIV over comparison approaches. CONCLUSIONS: OxMIV performed well in this real-world validation, with improved sensitivity compared with unstructured assessments. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Structured tools to assess violence risk, such as OxMIV, have potential in first-episode psychosis to support a stratified approach to allocating non-harmful interventions to individuals who may benefit from the largest absolute risk reduction.
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Trastornos Psicóticos , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Trastornos Psicóticos/diagnóstico , Calibración , Razonamiento Clínico , Violencia/prevención & controlRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To identify which international health technology assessment (HTA) agencies are undertaking evaluations of medical tests, summarize commonalities and differences in methodological approach, and highlight examples of good practice. METHODS: A methodological review incorporating: systematic identification of HTA guidance documents mentioning evaluation of tests; identification of key contributing organizations and abstraction of approaches to all essential HTA steps; summary of similarities and differences between organizations; and identification of important emergent themes which define the current state of the art and frontiers where further development is needed. RESULTS: Seven key organizations were identified from 216 screened. The main themes were: elucidation of claims of test benefits; attitude to direct and indirect evidence of clinical effectiveness (including evidence linkage); searching; quality assessment; and health economic evaluation. With the exception of dealing with test accuracy data, approaches were largely based on general approaches to HTA with few test-specific modifications. Elucidation of test claims and attitude to direct and indirect evidence are where we identified the biggest dissimilarities in approach. CONCLUSIONS: There is consensus on some aspects of HTA of tests, such as dealing with test accuracy, and examples of good practice which HTA organizations new to test evaluation can emulate. The focus on test accuracy contrasts with universal acknowledgment that it is not a sufficient evidence base for test evaluation. There are frontiers where methodological development is urgently required, notably integrating direct and indirect evidence and standardizing approaches to evidence linkage.
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Actitud , Evaluación de la Tecnología Biomédica , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Consenso , Agencias InternacionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care. DESIGN: (1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives. DATA SOURCES: For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used. REVIEW METHODS: For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed. RESULTS: People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia). FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Around 1 in 100 people in the UK has coeliac disease. It develops when the immune system attacks the lining of the gut after eating gluten. It is thought that only one in three people with coeliac disease is currently diagnosed. Without treatment, people with coeliac disease are at an increased risk of anaemia, osteoporosis and cancer. Treatment is a lifelong gluten-free diet. Diagnosing coeliac disease is difficult. Some people have minimal or non-specific symptoms, such as pain, indigestion or bloating, so knowing who to test is tricky. WHAT DID WE DO?: We wanted to establish who should be tested for coeliac disease, what tests should be used and whether or not invasive testing (a gut biopsy) is necessary for everyone. We looked at existing studies and data from general practices, and conducted an online survey, and brought everything together in an economic (cost) analysis. WHAT DID WE FIND?: Using individual symptoms is not helpful to identify people who may have coeliac disease. People with coeliac disease are more likely to have a combination of symptoms. People with anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, thyroid disorders, immunoglobulin A deficiency, Down syndrome, Turner syndrome or a family history of coeliac disease are more likely to have coeliac disease and should be offered tests. Common blood tests for coeliac disease are very accurate, particularly when used in combination with genetic testing. Blood tests alone can be used for diagnosis for some people. Others will need a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis. Whether or not this is needed depends on their risk of coeliac disease: whether or not they have symptoms and whether or not they have a condition that puts them at higher risk. Shared decision-making is important for individuals considering an invasive test, depending on how certain they want to be about their diagnosis before starting a gluten-free diet.
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Enfermedad Celíaca , Osteoporosis , Neoplasias Cutáneas , Estados Unidos , Adulto , Niño , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Estudios Longitudinales , Estudios Prospectivos , Inmunoglobulina A , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como AsuntoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Crohn's disease (CD) is characterised by discontinuous, relapsing enteric inflammation. Instituting advanced therapies at an early stage to suppress inflammation aims to prevent future complications such as stricturing or penetrating disease, and subsequent surgical resection. Therapeutics are effective but associated with certain side-effects and relatively expensive. There is therefore an urgent need for robust methods to predict which newly diagnosed patients will develop disabling disease, to identify patients who are most likely to benefit from early, advanced therapies. We aim to determine if magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) features at diagnosis improve prediction of disabling CD within 5 years of diagnosis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We describe the protocol for a multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective study of adult patients with newly diagnosed CD. We will use patients already recruited to the METRIC study and extend their clinical follow-up, as well as a separate group of newly diagnosed patients who were not part of the METRIC trial (MRE within 3 months of diagnosis), to ensure an adequate sample size. Follow-up will extend for at least 4 years. The primary outcome is to evaluate the comparative predictive ability of prognostic models incorporating MRE severity scores (Magnetic resonance Enterography Global Score (MEGS), simplified MAgnetic Resonance Index of Activity (sMaRIA) and Lémann Index) versus models using standard characteristics alone to predict disabling CD (modified Beaugerie definition) within 5 years of new diagnosis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol achieved National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (NHS REC), London-Hampstead Research Ethics Committee approval (IRAS 217422). Our findings will be disseminated via conference presentations and peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN76899103.