Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibodies for infant HIV prophylaxis in settings with high HIV burdens: a simulation modeling study.

Introduction: Approximately 130 000 infants acquire HIV annually despite global maternal antiretroviral therapy scale-up. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of offering long-acting, anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) prophylaxis to infants in three distinct settings. Methods: We simulated infants in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Zimbabwe using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Pediatric (CEPAC-P) model. We modeled strategies offering a three-bNAb combination in addition to WHO-recommended standard-of-care oral prophylaxis to infants: a) with known, WHO-defined high-risk HIV exposure at birth (HR-HIVE); b) with known HIV exposure at birth (HIVE); or c) with or without known HIV exposure (ALL). Modeled infants received 1-dose, 2-doses, or Extended (every 3 months through 18 months) bNAb dosing. Base case model inputs included 70% bNAb efficacy (sensitivity analysis range: 10-100%), 3-month efficacy duration/dosing interval (1-6 months), and $20/dose cost ($5-$100/dose). Outcomes included pediatric HIV infections, life expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, in US$/year-of-life-saved [YLS], assuming a ≤50% GDP per capita cost-effectiveness threshold). Results: The base case model projects that bNAb strategies targeting HIVE and ALL infants would prevent 7-26% and 10-42% additional pediatric HIV infections, respectively, compared to standard-of-care alone, ranging by dosing approach. HIVE-Extended would be cost-effective (cost-saving compared to standard-of-care) in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe; ALL-Extended would be cost-effective in South Africa (ICER: $882/YLS). BNAb strategies targeting HR-HIVE infants would result in greater lifetime costs and smaller life expectancy gains than HIVE-Extended. Throughout most bNAb efficacies and costs evaluated in sensitivity analyses, targeting HIVE infants would be cost-effective in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, and targeting ALL infants would be cost-effective in South Africa. Discussion: Adding long-acting bNAbs to current standard-of-care prophylaxis would be cost-effective, assuming plausible efficacies and costs. The cost-effective target population would vary by setting, largely driven by maternal antenatal HIV prevalence and postpartum incidence.

National Evaluation of HIV Service Resource Allocation in Tanzania.

Using time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC), we examined resource allocation and costs for HIV services throughout Tanzania at patient and facility levels. This national, cross-sectional analysis of 22 health facilities quantified costs and resources associated with 886 patients receiving care for five HIV services: antiretroviral therapy, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV testing and counseling, voluntary medical male circumcision, and pre-exposure prophylaxis. We also documented total provider-patient interaction time, the cost of services with and without inclusion of consumables, and conducted fixed-effects multivariable regression analyses to examine patient- and facility-level correlates of costs and provider-patient time. Findings showed that resources and costs for HIV care varied significantly throughout Tanzania, including as a function of patient- and facility-level characteristics. While some variation may be preferable (e.g., needier patients received more resources), other areas suggested a lack of equity (e.g., wealthier patients received more provider time) and presented opportunities to optimize care delivery protocols.

Health Economics Research on Non-surgical Biomedical HIV Prevention: Identifying Gaps and Proposing a Way Forward.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Although HIV prevention science has advanced over the last four decades, evidence suggests that prevention technologies do not always reach their full potential. Critical health economics evidence at appropriate decision-making junctures, particularly early in the development process, could help identify and address potential barriers to the eventual uptake of future HIV prevention products. This paper aims to identify key evidence gaps and propose health economics research priorities for the field of HIV non-surgical biomedical prevention. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach with three distinct components: (i) three systematic literature reviews (costs and cost effectiveness, HIV transmission modelling and quantitative preference elicitation) to understand health economics evidence and gaps in the peer-reviewed literature; (ii) an online survey with researchers working in this field to capture gaps in yet-to-be published research (recently completed, ongoing and future); and (iii) a stakeholder meeting with key global and national players in HIV prevention, including experts in product development, health economics research and policy uptake, to uncover further gaps, as well as to elicit views on priorities and recommendations based on (i) and (ii). RESULTS: Gaps in the scope of available health economics evidence were identified. Little research has been carried out on certain key populations (e.g. transgender people and people who inject drugs) and other vulnerable groups (e.g. pregnant people and people who breastfeed). Research is also lacking on preferences of community actors who often influence or enable access to health services among priority populations. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, which has been rolled out in many settings, has been studied in depth. However, research on newer promising technologies, such as long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis formulations, broadly neutralising antibodies and multipurpose prevention technologies, is lacking. Interventions focussing on reducing intravenous and vertical transmission are also understudied. A disproportionate amount of evidence on low- and middle-income countries comes from two countries (South Africa and Kenya); evidence from other countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as other low- and middle-income countries is needed. Further, data are needed on non-facility-based service delivery modalities, integrated service delivery and ancillary services. Key methodological gaps were also identified. An emphasis on equity and representation of heterogeneous populations was lacking. Research rarely acknowledged the complex and dynamic use of prevention technologies over time. Greater efforts are needed to collect primary data, quantify uncertainty, systematically compare the full range of prevention options available, and validate pilot and modelling data once interventions are scaled up. Clarity on appropriate cost-effectiveness outcome measures and thresholds is also lacking. Lastly, research often fails to reflect policy-relevant questions and approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a large body of health economics evidence on non-surgical biomedical HIV prevention technologies, important gaps in the scope of evidence and methodology remain. To ensure that high-quality research influences key decision-making junctures and facilitates the delivery of prevention products in a way that maximises impact, we make five broad recommendations related to: improved study design, an increased focus on service delivery, greater community and stakeholder engagement, the fostering of an active network of partners across sectors and an enhanced application of research.

Assessment of regional networks on nutrition in South Asia: a multi-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Many national and international organizations are working to improve maternal and child nutrition in countries with high malnutrition prevalence and burdens. While there has been progress in strengthening multi-organizational networks on nutrition at country and global levels, the regional level has received much less attention. We conducted a study to 1) determine the existing relationships and levels of engagement between international organizations working to improve nutrition at the regional level or in at least two countries in South Asia; and 2) examine the experiences and perspectives of international organizations on regional-level communication, coordination or collaboration on nutrition in South Asia. METHODS: A mixed methods approach involving organizational network analysis (ONA) and semi-structured interviews was used to develop an understanding of the existing network and relationships between international organizations working on nutrition in South Asia. ONA data from 43 international organizations was analysed using a social network analysis software (UCINET) to systematically quantify and visualize the patterns of relationships between organizations. RESULTS: We found a high degree of connectivity between most of the international organizations in South Asia, but there were gaps between the many organizations that knew each other and the work they did together regionally on nutrition. Most organizations worked together only 'rarely' or 'sometimes' on nutrition at the regional level and high-intensity (collaborative) working relationships were uncommon. Organizations of the same type tended to cluster together, and a small number of UN agencies and multilateral organizations were central brokers in the nutrition working relationships. Perceived constraints to the nutrition working relationships included organizations' agenda and mandate, threats to visibility and branding, human and financial resources, history, trust and power relations with other organizations, absence of a regional network for cooperation, and donor expectations. There was high demand to remedy this situation and to put network mechanisms in place to strengthen communication, coordination and collaboration on nutrition. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunities are being missed for organizations to work together on nutrition at the regional level in South Asia. The effectiveness of regional nutrition networks in influencing policy or programme decisions and resources for nutrition at country level should be explored.

Multisectoral nutrition planning in Nepal: Evidence from an organizational network analysis.

Multisectoral approaches are central to the global Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Nepal joined SUN in 2011 and approved the first 5-year Multisectoral Nutrition Plan (MSNP) in 2012, covering 2013-2017. This mixed methods study draws on organizational network analysis (ONA) and qualitative interviews with a sample of 22 organizations to examine (1) levels of engagement and network dynamics among government sectors and development organizations and (2) milestones and processes in the development and implementation of Nepal's MSNP. Findings suggest that the development of the MSNP was related to the high density of organizational connections; the leadership role of the Nepal's National Planning Commission and the National Nutrition and Food Security Secretariat; and the bridging roles played by a few government ministries and UN agencies that linked organizations that did not have direct relationships with each other. Specialized roles were observed for the three types of working relationships: policy dialogue, strategic planning and implementation. Partners were less connected on MSNP implementation than for policy dialogue and strategic planning, which may have constrained collaborative scale-up efforts. The Ministry of Agricultural Development, in particular, was the conduit for connecting non-health sectors into the broader network. Our study offers insights into the structure and dynamics of multisectoral planning in Nepal. It also contributes to a small but growing literature that illustrates how ONA can be applied to measure and use network results to elucidate the processes for strengthening multisectoral planning and implementation of nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions.

Significant inefficiency in running community health systems: The case of health posts in Southwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Although much has been documented about the performance of the health extension program, there is a lack of information on how efficiently the program is running. Furthermore, the rising cost of health services and the absence of competition among publicly owned health facilities demands strong follow up of efficiency. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the technical efficiency of the health posts and determinants in Southwestern Ethiopia. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We used data for one Ethiopian fiscal year (from July 2016 to June 2017) to estimate the technical efficiency of health posts. A total of 66 health posts were included in the analysis. We employed a two-stage data envelopment analysis to estimate technical efficiency. At the first stage, technical efficiency scores were calculated using data envelopment analysis program version 2.1. Predictors of technical efficiency were then identified at the second stage using Tobit regression, with STATA version 14. RESULTS: The findings revealed that 21.2% were technically efficient with a mean technical efficiency score of 0.6 (± 0.3), indicating that health posts could increase their service volume by 36% with no change made to the inputs they received. On the other hand, health posts had an average scale efficiency score of 0.8 (± 0.2) implying that the facilities have the potential to increase service volume by 16% with the existing resources. The regression model has indicated average waiting time for service has negatively affected technical efficiency. CONCLUSION: More than three-quarters of health posts were found inefficient. The technical efficiency score of more than one-third of the health posts is even less than 50%. Community mobilization to enhance the uptake of health services at the health posts coupled with a possible reallocation of resources in less efficient health posts is a possible approach to improve the efficiency of the program.

Recurrent costs in primary health care in Ethiopia: facility and disease specific unit costs and their components in government primary hospitals and health centers.

BACKGROUND: Continued investment, especially from domestic financing, is needed for Ethiopia to achieve universal health coverage and a sustainable health system over time. Understanding costs of providing health services will assist the government to mobilize adequate resources for health, and to understand future costs of changes in quality of care, service provision scope, and potential decline in external resources. This study assessed costs per unit of service output, "unit costs", for government primary hospitals and health centers, and disease-specific services within each facility. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from 25 primary hospitals and 47 health centers across eight of the eleven regions of Ethiopia for 2013/14, and 2014/15 and 2015/16 but only for primary hospitals, and supplemented by other related health and financial institutions records. A top-down costing approach was used to estimate unit costs for each facility by department - inpatient, outpatient, maternal and child health, and delivery. A mixed-method approach was used for the disease-specific unit costs exempt from fees. RESULTS: Health center median unit cost was 146 Ethiopian birr (ETB) (17 PPP$, 2012), the Delivery department had the highest median unit cost (647 ETB; 76 PPP$, 2012) and Outpatient department (OPD) had the lowest (124 ETB; 14 PPP$, 2012). Primary hospital median unit cost was 339 ETB (40 PPP$, 2012), with Inpatient department having the highest median unit cost (1288 ETB; 151 PPP$, 2012), while OPD was the lowest (252 ETB; 29 PPP$, 2012). Drugs and pharmaceutical supplies accounted for most of the costs for both facilities. Among the exempted services offered, tuberculosis and antiretroviral treatment are the costliest with median unit costs from 1091 to 1536 ETB (128-180 PPP$, 2012), with drugs and supplies accounting for almost 90% of the costs. CONCLUSIONS: High unit costs of service provision could be indicative of underutilization of the primary health care system, coupled with inefficiencies associated with organization and delivery of health services. Data from this study are being used to assess efficiency and productivity among primary care facilities, facilitate premium setting for health insurance, and improve budgeting and allocating health resources for a more sustainable and effective primary health care system.

Technical efficiency of neonatal health services in primary health care facilities of Southwest Ethiopia: a two-stage data envelopment analysis.

BACKGROUND: Disparity in resource allocation is an issue among various health delivery units in Ethiopia. To sufficiently address this problem decision-makers require evidence on efficient allocation of resources. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the technical efficiency of primary health care units providing neonatal health services in Southwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Two-stage data envelopment analysis was conducted based on one-year (2016/17) data from 68 health posts and 23 health centers in Southwest Ethiopia. Primary data were collected from each of the facility, respective district health offices and finance and economic cooperation offices. Technical efficiency scores were calculated using data envelopment analysis software version 2.1. Tobit regression was then applied to identify determinants of technical efficiency. STATA version 14 was used in the regression model and for descriptive statistics. RESULTS: By utilizing the best combination of inputs, eight health posts (11.76%) and eight health centers (34.78%) were found to be technically efficient in delivering neonatal health services. Compared with others included in the analysis, inefficient health delivery units were using more human and non-salary recurrent resources. The regression model indicated that there was a positive association between efficiency and the health center head's years of experience and the facility's catchment population. Waiting time at the health posts was found to negatively affect efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Most of health posts and the majority of health centers were found to be technically inefficient in delivering neonatal health services. This indicates issues with the performance of these facilities with regards to the utilization of inputs to produce the current outputs. The existing resources could be used to serve additional neonates in the facilities.

Can Ethiopia Finance the Continued Development of Its Primary Health Care System If External Resources Decline?

Ethiopia's recent improvements in health outcomes benefited from the large increase in development assistance for health received in recent years, most of which supported its primary care system. Increased domestic resource mobilization for health will be needed to sustain progress given recent and likely future declines in external support. We estimate a projection model of Ethiopian government domestic resource mobilization potential compared with future health care delivery costs in order to assess Ethiopia's ability to finance its planned primary health care system. For the period of Ethiopia's current five-year health sector plan (2016-2020), the projection model indicates that if real external resources remain at the levels of 2011, domestic resource mobilization may only provide half of the estimated funds needed. Including out-of-pocket spending currently captured as retained user fees, Ethiopia is more likely to successfully finance continued delivery of primary care. Over 20 years, 2016-2035, the future sustainability of primary care services without increasing contributions from households will depend largely on significant economic growth and more government funding for primary care. Our modeling suggests that Ethiopia can substantially support further development of primary care services, even in the face of declining external support. However, it is unlikely to achieve its goals solely through "business as usual." Ethiopia is already moving forward with timely adoption of sound strategies to maintain progress. External partners should support these trends to enable transition plans to greater domestic funding with minimal disruption to positive progress that has been and is being made.

How Ethiopia achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 through multisectoral interventions: a Countdown to 2015 case study.

BACKGROUND: 3 years before the 2015 deadline, Ethiopia achieved Millennium Development Goal 4. The under-5 mortality decreased 69%, from 205 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 64 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2013. To understand the underlying factors that contributed to the success in achieving MDG4, Ethiopia was selected as a Countdown to 2015 case study. METHODS: We used a set of complementary methods to analyse progress in child health in Ethiopia between 1990 and 2014. We used Demographic Health Surveys to analyse trends in coverage and equity of key reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators. Standardised tools developed by the Countdown Health Systems and Policies working group were used to understand the timing and content of health and non-health policies. We assessed longitudinal trends in health-system investment through a financial analysis of National Health Accounts, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to assess the contribution of interventions towards reducing under-5 mortality. FINDINGS: The annual rate of reduction in under-5 mortality increased from 3·3% in 1990-2005 to 7·8% in 2005-13. The prevalence of stunting decreased from 60% in 2000 to 40% in 2014. Overall levels of coverage of reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators remained low, with disparities between the lowest and highest wealth quintiles despite improvement in coverage for essential health interventions. Coverage of child immunisation increased the most (21% of children in 2000 vs 80% of children in 2014), followed by coverage of satisfied demand for family planning by women of reproductive age (19% vs 63%). Provision of antenatal care increased from 10% of women in 2000 to 32% of women in 2014, but only 15% of women delivered with a skilled birth attendant by 2014. A large upturn occurred after 2005, bolstered by a rapid increase in health funding that facilitated the accelerated expansion of health infrastructure and workforce through an innovative community-based delivery system. The LiST model could explain almost 50% of the observed reduction in child mortality between 2000 and 2011; and changes in nutritional status were responsible for about 50% of the 469 000 lives saved between 2000 and 2011. These developments occurred within a multisectoral policy platform, integrating child survival and stunting goals within macro-level policies and programmes for reducing poverty and improving agricultural productivity, food security, water supply, and sanitation. INTERPRETATION: The reduction of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia was the result of combined activities in health, nutrition, and non-health sectors. However, Ethiopia still has high neonatal and maternal morbidity and mortality from preventable causes and an unfinished agenda in reducing inequalities, improving coverage of effective interventions, and strengthening multisectoral partnerships for further progress. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Government of Canada.

Countdown to 2015 country case studies: what can analysis of national health financing contribute to understanding MDG 4 and 5 progress?

BACKGROUND: Countdown to 2015 (Countdown) supported countries to produce case studies that examine how and why progress was made toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Analysing how health-financing data explains improvements in RMNCH outcomes was one of the components to the case studies. METHODS: This paper presents a descriptive analysis on health financing from six Countdown case studies (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania), supplemented by additional data from global databases and country reports on macroeconomic, health financing, demographic, and RMNCH outcome data as needed. It also examines the effect of other contextual factors presented in the case studies to help interpret health-financing data. RESULTS: Dramatic increases in health funding occurred since 2000, where the MDG agenda encouraged countries and donors to invest more resources on health. Most low-income countries relied on external support to increase health spending, with an average 20-64 % of total health spending from 2000 onwards. Middle-income countries relied more on government and household spending. RMNCH funding also increased since 2000, with an average increase of 119 % (2005-2010) for RMNH expenditures (2005-2010) and 165 % for CH expenditures (2005-2011). Progress was made, especially achieving MDG 4, even with low per capita spending; ranging from US$16 to US$44 per child under 5 years among low-income countries. Improvements in distal factors were noted during the time frame of the analysis, including rapid economic growth in Ethiopia, Peru, and Tanzania and improvements in female literacy as documented in Malawi, which are also likely to have contributed to MDG progress and achievements. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in health and RMNCH funding accompanied improvements in outcomes, though low-income countries are still very reliant on external financing, and out-of-pocket comprising a growing share of funds in middle-income settings. Enhancements in tracking RMNCH expenditures across countries are still needed to better understand whether domestic and global health financing initiatives lead to improved outcomes as RMNCH continues to be a priority under the Sustainable Development Goals.