Serum carcinoembryonic antigen trends for diagnosing colorectal cancer recurrence in the FACS randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Most guidelines recommend that patients who have undergone curative resection for primary colorectal cancer are followed up for 5 years with regular blood carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) tests to trigger further investigation for recurrence. However, CEA may miss recurrences, or patients may have false alarms and undergo unnecessary investigation. METHODS: The diagnostic accuracy of trends in CEA measurements for recurrent colorectal cancer, taken as part of the FACS (Follow-up After Colorectal Surgery) trial (2003-2014), were analysed. Investigation to detect recurrence was triggered by clinical symptoms, scheduled CT or colonoscopy, or a CEA level of at least 7 µg/l above baseline. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the diagnostic accuracy of CEA trends with single measurements. CEA trends were estimated using linear regression. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for CEA trend was at least 0·820 across all 5 years of follow-up. In comparison, the AUCs for single measurements ranged from 0·623 to 0·749. Improvement was most marked at the end of the first year of follow-up, with the AUC increasing from 0·623 (95 per cent c.i. 0·509 to 0·736) to 0·880 (0·814 to 0·947). However, no individual trend threshold achieved a sensitivity above 70 per cent (30 per cent missed recurrences). CONCLUSION: Interpreting trends in CEA measurements instead of single CEA test results improves diagnostic accuracy for recurrence, but not sufficiently to warrant it being used as a single surveillance strategy to trigger further investigation. In the absence of a more accurate biomarker, monitoring trends in CEA should be combined with clinical, endoscopic and imaging surveillance for improved accuracy.

Systematic review and validation of prediction rules for identifying children with serious infections in emergency departments and urgent-access primary care.

BACKGROUND: Although the vast majority of children with acute infections are managed at home, this is one of the most common problems encountered in children attending emergency departments (EDs) and primary care. Distinguishing children with serious infection from those with minor or self-limiting infection is difficult. This can result in misdiagnosis of children with serious infections, which results in a poorer health outcome, or a tendency to refer or admit children as a precaution; thus, inappropriately utilising secondary-care resources. OBJECTIVES: We systematically identified clinical features and laboratory tests which identify serious infection in children attending the ED and primary care. We also identified clinical prediction rules and validated those using existing data sets. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, Medion, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects in October 2008, with an update in June 2009, using search terms that included terms related to five components: serious infections, children, clinical history and examination, laboratory tests and ambulatory care settings. We also searched references of included studies, clinical content experts, and relevant National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines to identify relevant studies. There were no language restrictions. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were based in ambulatory settings in economically developed countries. REVIEW METHODS: Literature searching, selection and data extraction were carried out by two reviewers. We assessed quality using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS) instrument, and used spectrum bias and validity of the reference standard as exclusion criteria. We calculated the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of each feature along with the pre- and post-test probabilities of the outcome. Meta-analysis was performed using the bivariate method when appropriate. We externally validated clinical prediction rules identified from the systematic review using existing data from children attending ED or primary care. RESULTS: We identified 1939 articles, of which 35 were selected for inclusion in the review. There was only a single study from primary care; all others were performed in the ED. The quality of the included studies was modest. We also identified seven data sets (11,045 children) to use for external validation. The most useful clinical features for ruling in serious infection was parental or clinician overall concern that the illness was different from previous illnesses or that something was wrong. In low- or intermediate-prevalence settings, the presence of fever had some diagnostic value. Additional red flag features included cyanosis, poor peripheral circulation, rapid breathing, crackles on auscultation, diminished breath sounds, meningeal irritation, petechial rash, decreased consciousness and seizures. Procalcitonin (LR+ 1.75-2.96, LR- 0.08-0.35) and C-reactive protein (LR+ 2.53-3.79, LR- 0.25-0.61) were superior to white cell counts. The best performing clinical prediction rule was a five-stage decision tree rule, consisting of the physician's gut feeling, dyspnoea, temperature ≥ 40 °C, diarrhoea and age. It was able to decrease the likelihood of serious infections substantially, but on validation it provided good ruling out value only in low-to-intermediate-prevalence settings (LR- 0.11-0.28). We also identified and validated the Yale Observation Scale and prediction rules for pneumonia, meningitis and gastroenteritis. LIMITATIONS: Only a single study was identified from primary-care settings, therefore results may lack generalisability. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical features are useful to increase or decrease the probability that a child has a serious infection. None is sufficient on its own to substantially raise or lower the risk of serious infection. Some are highly specific ('red flags'), so when present should prompt a more thorough or repeated assessment. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin demonstrate similar diagnostic characteristics and are both superior to white cell counts. However, even in children with a serious infection, red flags will occur infrequently, and their absence does not lower the risk. The diagnostic gap is currently filled by using clinical 'gut feeling' and diagnostic safety-netting, which are still not well defined. Although two prediction rules for serious infection and one for meningitis provided some diagnostic value, we do not recommend widespread implementation at this time. Future research is needed to identify predictors of serious infection in children in primary-care settings, to validate prediction rules more widely, and determine the added value of blood tests in primary-care settings. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Why do children hospitalised with pneumonia not receive antibiotics in primary care?

BACKGROUND: Although antibiotics are recommended for the primary care management of community-acquired pneumonia, a recent UK study reported that most children admitted to hospital had not received antibiotics. OBJECTIVE: To describe primary care antibiotic use for children subsequently hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia. DESIGN/METHODS: A case series of 280 children <5 years old hospitalised with pneumonia in Auckland, New Zealand. Pneumonia was defined as an acute illness with cough or respiratory distress, the presence of tachypnoea or indrawing and an abnormal chest radiograph. Receipt of antibiotics was determined by parental report and medical record review. RESULTS: Fewer than half (108, 39%) of the children had received an antibiotic before hospital admission. For 60 children (21%) there had been no opportunity to prescribe because the illness evolved rapidly, resulting in early hospital admission. For the remaining 112 children (40%) an opportunity to receive antibiotics was missed. The parent failed to obtain the antibiotic prescribed for 23 children (21% of 112), but in 24 children (21%) pneumonia was diagnosed but no antibiotic prescribed and in a further 28 children (25%) the diagnosis was not made despite parental report of symptoms suggesting pneumonia. Missed opportunities to prescribe were not associated with increased overall severity of symptoms at hospital presentation but were associated with an increased risk of: focal chest radiological abnormalities (rate ratio (RR)=2.14; 95% CI 1.49 to 2.83), peripheral leucocytosis >15×10(9)/l (RR=2.29; 95% CI 1.61 to 2.98) and bacteraemia (RR=6.68, 95% CI 1.08 to 58.44). CONCLUSIONS: Young children with community-acquired pneumonia may not receive an antibiotic before hospital admission because the illness evolves rapidly or the prescribed medicine is not given by parents. However, missed opportunities for appropriate antibiotic prescribing by health professionals in primary care appear to be common.

Long-term health outcomes in a British cohort of breast, colorectal and prostate cancer survivors: a database study.

BACKGROUND: The community-based incidence of cancer treatment-related long-term consequences is uncertain. We sought to establish the burden of health outcomes that have been associated with treatment among British long-term cancer survivors. METHODS: We identified 26,213 adults from the General Practice Research Database who have survived 5 years or more following breast, colorectal or prostate cancer. Four age-, sex- and general practice-matched non-cancer controls were selected for each survivor. We considered the incidence of treatment-associated health outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Breast cancer survivors had an elevated incidence of heart failure (hazards ratio (HR) 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27-3.01), coronary artery disease (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.44), hypothyroidism (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.56) and osteoporosis (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13-1.40). Among colorectal cancer survivors, there was increased incidence of dementia (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.20-2.35), diabetes (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.12-1.72) and osteoporosis (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.15-1.73). Prostate cancer survivors had the highest risk of osteoporosis (HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.93-3.22). CONCLUSIONS: The study confirms the occurrence of increased incidence of chronic illnesses in long-term cancer survivors attributable to underlying lifestyle and/or cancer treatments. Although the absolute risk of the majority of late effects in the cancer survivors cohort is low, identifying prior risk of osteoporosis by bone mineral density scanning for prostate survivors should be considered. There is an urgent need to improve primary care recording of cancer treatment.

Primary care endorsement letter and a patient leaflet to improve participation in colorectal cancer screening: results of a factorial randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The trial aimed to investigate whether a general practitioner's (GP) letter encouraging participation and a more explicit leaflet explaining how to complete faecal occult blood test (FOBT) included with the England Bowel Cancer Screening Programme invitation materials would improve uptake. METHODS: A randomised controlled 2 × 2 factorial trial was conducted in the south of England. Overall, 1288 patients registered with 20 GPs invited for screening in October 2009 participated in the trial. Participants were randomised to either a GP's endorsement letter and/or an enhanced information leaflet with their FOBT kit. The primary outcome was verified with return of the test kit within 20 weeks. RESULTS: Both the GP's endorsement letter and the enhanced procedural leaflet, each increased participation by ∼6% - the GP's letter by 5.8% (95% CI: 4.1-7.8%) and the leaflet by 6.0% (95% CI: 4.3-8.1%). On the basis of the intention-to-treat analysis, the random effects logistic regression model confirmed that there was no important interaction between the two interventions, and estimated an adjusted rate ratio of 1.11 (P=0.038) for the GP's letter and 1.12 (P=0.029) for the leaflet. In the absence of an interaction, an additive effect for receiving both the GP's letter and leaflet (11.8%, 95% CI: 8.5-16%) was confirmed. The per-protocol analysis indicated that the insertion of an electronic GP's signature on the endorsement letter was associated with increased participation (P=0.039). CONCLUSION: Including both an endorsement letter from each patient's GP and a more explicit procedural leaflet could increase participation in the English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme by ∼10%, a relative improvement of 20% on current performance.

Determining which automatic digital blood pressure device performs adequately: a systematic review.

The aim of this study is to systematically examine the proportion of accurate readings attained by automatic digital blood pressure (BP) devices in published validation studies. We included studies of automatic digital BP devices using recognized protocols. We summarized the data as mean and s.d. of differences between measured and observed BP, and proportion of measurements within 5 mm Hg. We included 79 articles (10,783 participants) reporting 113 studies from 22 different countries. Overall, 25/31 (81%), 37/41 (90%) and 34/35 (97%) devices passed the relevant protocols [BHS, AAMI and ESH international protocol (ESH-IP), respectively]. For devices that passed the BHS protocol, the proportion of measured values within 5 mm Hg of the observed value ranged from 60 to 86% (AAMI protocol 47-94% and ESH-IP 54-89%). The results for the same device varied significantly when a different protocol was used (Omron HEM-907 80% of readings were within 5 mm Hg using the AAMI protocol compared with 62% with the ESH-IP). Even devices with a mean difference of zero show high variation: a device with 74% of BP measurements within 5 mm Hg would require six further BP measurements to reduce variation to 95% of readings within 5 mm Hg. Current protocols for validating BP monitors give no guarantee of accuracy in clinical practice. Devices may pass even the most rigorous protocol with as few as 60% of readings within 5 mm Hg of the observed value. Multiple readings are essential to provide clinicians and patients with accurate information on which to base diagnostic and treatment decisions.

'Feral' and 'wild'-type methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the United Kingdom.

Circulation of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outside hospitals could alter the impact of hospital-based control strategies. We investigated two groups of cases (each matched to controls with MRSA): 61 'community cases' not in acute hospital in the year before MRSA isolation; and 21 cases with ciprofloxacin-sensitive (CipS) MRSA. Multi-locus sequence typing, spa-typing and Panton-Valentine leukocidin gene testing were performed and demographics obtained. Additional questionnaires were completed by community case GPs. Community cases comprised 6% of Oxfordshire MRSA. Three community cases had received no regular healthcare or antibiotics: one was infected with CipS. Ninety-one percent of community cases had healthcare-associated sequence type (ST)22/36; CipS MRSA cases had heterogeneous STs but many had recent healthcare exposure. A substantial minority of UK MRSA transmission may occur outside hospitals. Hospital strains are becoming 'feral' or persisting in long-term carriers in the community with regular healthcare contacts; those with recent healthcare exposure may nevertheless acquire non-hospital epidemic MRSA strains in the community.

Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnosis of heart failure, with modelling of implications of different diagnostic strategies in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the accuracy in diagnosing heart failure of clinical features and potential primary care investigations, and to perform a decision analysis to test the impact of plausible diagnostic strategies on costs and diagnostic yield in the UK health-care setting. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 7 July 2006. 'Grey literature' databases and conference proceedings were searched and authors of relevant studies contacted for data that could not be extracted from the published papers. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review of the clinical evidence was carried out according to standard methods. Individual patient data (IPD) analysis was performed on nine studies, and a logistic regression model to predict heart failure was developed on one of the data sets and validated on the other data sets. Cost-effectiveness modelling was based on a decision tree that compared different plausible investigation strategies. RESULTS: Dyspnoea was the only symptom or sign with high sensitivity (89%), but it had poor specificity (51%). Clinical features with relatively high specificity included history of myocardial infarction (89%), orthopnoea (89%), oedema (72%), elevated jugular venous pressure (70%), cardiomegaly (85%), added heart sounds (99%), lung crepitations (81%) and hepatomegaly (97%). However, the sensitivity of these features was low, ranging from 11% (added heart sounds) to 53% (oedema). Electrocardiography (ECG), B-type natriuretic peptides (BNP) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptides (NT-proBNP) all had high sensitivities (89%, 93% and 93% respectively). Chest X-ray was moderately specific (76-83%) but insensitive (67-68%). BNP was more accurate than ECG, with a relative diagnostic odds ratio of ECG/BNP of 0.32 (95% CI 0.12-0.87). There was no difference between the diagnostic accuracy of BNP and NT-proBNP. A model based upon simple clinical features and BNP derived from one data set was found to have good validity when applied to other data sets. A model substituting ECG for BNP was less predictive. From this a simple clinical rule was developed: in a patient presenting with symptoms such as breathlessness in whom heart failure is suspected, refer directly to echocardiography if the patient has a history of myocardial infarction or basal crepitations or is a male with ankle oedema; otherwise, carry out a BNP test and refer for echocardiography depending on the results of the test. On the basis of the cost-effectiveness analysis carried out, such a decision rule is likely to be considered cost-effective to the NHS in terms of cost per additional case detected. The cost-effectiveness analysis further suggested that, if likely benefit to the patient in terms of improved life expectancy is taken into account, the optimum strategy would be to refer all patients with symptoms suggestive of heart failure directly for echocardiography. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis suggests the need for important changes to the NICE recommendations. First, BNP (or NT-proBNP) should be recommended over ECG and, second, some patients should be referred straight for echocardiography without undergoing any preliminary investigation. Future work should include evaluation of the clinical rule described above in clinical practice.

How well do vital signs identify children with serious infections in paediatric emergency care?

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether vital signs identify children with serious infections, and to compare their diagnostic value with that of the Manchester triage score (MTS) and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) traffic light system of clinical risk factors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort of children presenting with suspected acute infection. We recorded vital signs, level of consciousness, activity level, respiratory distress, hydration and MTS category. SETTING: Paediatric assessment unit at a teaching hospital in England. PARTICIPANTS: 700 children (median age 3 years), of whom 357 (51.0%) were referred from primary care, 198 (28.3%) self-referrals and 116 (16.6%) emergency ambulance transfers. Just over half (383 or 54.7%) were admitted. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severity of infection categorised as serious, intermediate, minor or not infection. RESULTS: Children with serious or intermediate infections (n = 313) were significantly more likely than those with minor or no infection (n = 387) to have a temperature >or=39 degrees C, tachycardia, saturations 2 seconds. Having one or more of temperature >or=39 degrees C, saturations

Blood glucose self-monitoring in type 2 diabetes: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), either alone or with additional instruction in incorporating the results into self-care, is more effective than usual care in improving glycaemic control in non-insulin-treated diabetes. DESIGN: An open, parallel group randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 24 general practices in Oxfordshire and 24 in South Yorkshire, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with non-insulin-treated type 2 diabetes, aged > or = 25 years and with glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) > or = 6.2%. INTERVENTIONS: A total of 453 patients were individually randomised to one of: (1) standardised usual care with 3-monthly HbA1c (control, n = 152); (2) blood glucose self-testing with patient training focused on clinician interpretation of results in addition to usual care (less intensive self-monitoring, n = 150); (3) SMBG with additional training of patients in interpretation and application of the results to enhance motivation and maintain adherence to a healthy lifestyle (more intensive self-monitoring, n = 151). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was HBA1c at 12 months, and an intention-to-treat analysis, including all patients, was undertaken. Blood pressure, lipids, episodes of hypoglycaemia and quality of life, measured with the EuroQol 5 dimensions (EQ-5D), were secondary measures. An economic analysis was also carried out, and questionnaires were used to measure well-being, beliefs about use of SMBG and self-reports of medication taking, dietary and physical activities, and health-care resource use. RESULTS: The differences in 12-month HbA1c between the three groups (adjusted for baseline HbA1c) were not statistically significant (p = 0.12). The difference in unadjusted mean change in HbA1c from baseline to 12 months between the control and less intensive self-monitoring groups was -0.14% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.35 to 0.07] and between the control and more intensive self-monitoring groups was -0.17% (95% CI -0.37 to 0.03). There was no evidence of a significantly different impact of self-monitoring on glycaemic control when comparing subgroups of patients defined by duration of diabetes, therapy, diabetes-related complications and EQ-5D score. The economic analysis suggested that SMBG resulted in extra health-care costs and was unlikely to be cost-effective if used routinely. There appeared to be an initial negative impact of SMBG on quality of life measured on the EQ-5D, and the potential additional lifetime gains in quality-adjusted life-years, resulting from the lower levels of risk factors achieved at the end of trial follow-up, were outweighed by these initial impacts for both SMBG groups compared with control. Some patients felt that SMBG was helpful, and there was evidence that those using more intensive self-monitoring perceived diabetes as having more serious consequences. Patients using SMBG were often not clear about the relationship between their behaviour and the test results. CONCLUSIONS: While the data do not exclude the possibility of a clinically important benefit for specific subgroups of patients in initiating good glycaemic control, SMBG by non-insulin-treated patients, with or without instruction in incorporating findings into self-care, did not lead to a significant improvement in glycaemic control compared with usual care monitored by HbA1c levels. There was no convincing evidence to support a recommendation for routine self-monitoring of all patients and no evidence of improved glycaemic control in predefined subgroups of patients.

Deriving temperature and age appropriate heart rate centiles for children with acute infections.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the reference range for heart rate in children aged 3 months-10 years presenting to primary care with self-limiting infections. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of children presenting to primary care with suspected acute infection. Heart rate was measured using a pulse oximeter and axillary temperature using an electronic thermometer. Centile charts of heart rates expected at given temperatures for children with self-limiting infections were calculated. SETTING: Ten general practice surgeries and two out-of-hours centres in England. PARTICIPANTS: 1933 children presenting with suspected acute infections were recruited from in-hours general practice surgeries (1050 or 54.3%) or out-of-hours centres (883 or 45.7%). After excluding children who subsequently attended hospital and those without a final diagnosis of acute infection, 1589 children were used to create the centile charts of whom (859 or 54.1%) had upper respiratory tract infections and (215 or 13.5%) non-specific viral illness. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median, 75th, 90th and 97th centiles of heart rate at each temperature level. RESULTS: Heart rate increased by 9.9-14.1 bpm with each 1 degrees C increment in temperature. The 50th, 75th, 90th and 97th centiles of heart rate at each temperature level are presented graphically. CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific centile charts of heart rates expected at different temperatures should be used by clinicians in the initial assessment of children with acute infections. The charts will identify children who have a heart rate higher than expected for a given temperature and facilitate the interpretation of changes in heart rate on reassessment. Further research on the predictive value of the centile charts is needed to optimise their diagnostic utility.

Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk in a British population: results of a national screening project.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using the risk equation and risk categories of the Joint British Societies' Guidelines on Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Clinical Practice (2005). METHODS: A cross-sectional CVD screening programme was conducted in 35 towns in Great Britain. In total, 27,776 men and 43,261 women aged at least 18 years were screened. The estimated 10-year risk of CVD was calculated and directly standardised to the population of Great Britain. RESULTS: The age standardised combined prevalence of known CVD, diabetes, lipid-lowering or antihypertensive drug therapy, which preclude multifactorial risk assessment, was 18.0% for men and 18.1% for women. CVD risk was calculated for 56,863 individuals, and the age-standardised prevalence of an estimated 10-year CVD risk < 10% was 42.7% (95% CI: 42.2-43.1) for men and 60.4% (95% CI: 60.1-60.7) for women; 10% to < 20% was 19.6% (19.1-20.6) and 15.6% (15.2-15.9); and > or = 20% was 19.6% (19.1-20.0) and 6.0% (5.8-6.2) respectively. After aggregating known CVD, diabetes, antihypertensive or lipid-lowering drug therapy, or an estimated CVD risk of > or = 20%, the combined standardised prevalence of high CVD risk for individuals aged 50 years or more was 74.1% (73.5-74.8) for men (n = 14,787) and 45.5% (44.8-46.2) for women (n = 24,400). CONCLUSIONS: Using current risk thresholds, there is a substantial unmet need for primary prevention of CVD, particularly among middle-aged men. The results emphasise the scale of intervention that a strategy of individual risk assessment and pharmacological intervention requires.

Identifying symptoms of ovarian cancer: a qualitative and quantitative study.

INTRODUCTION: Symptoms of ovarian cancer are often vague and consequently a high proportion of women with ovarian cancer are not referred to the appropriate clinic. OBJECTIVE: To identify diagnostic factors for ovarian cancer. DESIGN: A qualitative and quantitative study. SETTING: Four UK hospitals. SAMPLE: One hundred and twenty-four women referred to hospital with suspected ovarian malignancy. METHODS: Women were interviewed prior to diagnosis (n = 63), or soon after. A thematic analysis was conducted. Emergent symptoms were quantitatively analysed to identify distinguishing features of ovarian cancer. MAIN OUTCOMES: Symptoms in women with and without ovarian cancer. RESULTS: Diagnoses comprised 44 malignancies, 59 benign gynaecological pathologies and 21 normal findings. Of the malignancies, 25 women had stage III or more disease, with an average age of 59 years. The benign/normal cohort was significantly younger (48 years). Multivariate analysis revealed persistent abdominal distension (OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.3-20.5), postmenopausal bleeding (OR 9.2, 95% CI 1.1-76.1), appetite loss (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.2), early satiety (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.6-15.7) and progressive symptoms (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-9.8) as independent, statistically significant variables associated with ovarian cancer. Fluctuating distension was not associated with ovarian cancer (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0-4.1). Women frequently used the term bloating, but this represented two distinct events: persistent abdominal distension and fluctuating distension/discomfort. CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian cancer is not a silent killer. Clinicians should distinguish between persistent and fluctuating distension. Recognition of the significance of symptoms described by women could lead to earlier and more appropriate referral.

Nicotine replacement therapy for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: The aim of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is temporarily to replace much of the nicotine from cigarettes to reduce motivation to smoke and nicotine withdrawal symptoms, thus easing the transition from cigarette smoking to complete abstinence. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this review were:To determine the effect of NRT compared to placebo in aiding smoking cessation, and to consider whether there is a difference in effect for the different forms of NRT (chewing gum, transdermal patches, nasal spray, inhalers and tablets/lozenges) in achieving abstinence from cigarettes. To determine whether the effect is influenced by the dosage, form and timing of use of NRT; the intensity of additional advice and support offered to the smoker; or the clinical setting in which the smoker is recruited and treated. To determine whether combinations of NRT are more likely to lead to successful quitting than one type alone. To determine whether NRT is more or less likely to lead to successful quitting compared to other pharmacotherapies. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group trials register for papers with 'nicotine' or 'NRT' in the title, abstract or keywords. Date of most recent search July 2007. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials in which NRT was compared to placebo or to no treatment, or where different doses of NRT were compared. We excluded trials which did not report cessation rates, and those with follow up of less than six months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data in duplicate on the type of participants, the dose, duration and form of nicotine therapy, the outcome measures, method of randomization, and completeness of follow up. The main outcome measure was abstinence from smoking after at least six months of follow up. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence for each trial, and biochemically validated rates if available. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) for each study. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect model. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 132 trials; 111 with over 40,000 participants contributed to the primary comparison between any type of NRT and a placebo or non-NRT control group. The RR of abstinence for any form of NRT relative to control was 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50 to 1.66). The pooled RR for each type were 1.43 (95% CI: 1.33 to 1.53, 53 trials) for nicotine gum; 1.66 (95% CI: 1.53 to 1.81, 41 trials) for nicotine patch; 1.90 (95% CI: 1.36 to 2.67, 4 trials) for nicotine inhaler; 2.00 (95% CI: 1.63 to 2.45, 6 trials) for oral tablets/lozenges; and 2.02 (95% CI: 1.49 to 3.73, 4 trials) for nicotine nasal spray. The effects were largely independent of the duration of therapy, the intensity of additional support provided or the setting in which the NRT was offered. The effect was similar in a small group of studies that aimed to assess use of NRT obtained without a prescription. In highly dependent smokers there was a significant benefit of 4 mg gum compared with 2 mg gum, but weaker evidence of a benefit from higher doses of patch. There was evidence that combining a nicotine patch with a rapid delivery form of NRT was more effective than a single type of NRT. Only one study directly compared NRT to another pharmacotherapy. In this study quit rates with nicotine patch were lower than with the antidepressant bupropion. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: All of the commercially available forms of NRT (gum, transdermal patch, nasal spray, inhaler and sublingual tablets/lozenges) can help people who make a quit attempt to increase their chances of successfully stopping smoking. NRTs increase the rate of quitting by 50-70%, regardless of setting. The effectiveness of NRT appears to be largely independent of the intensity of additional support provided to the individual. Provision of more intense levels of support, although beneficial in facilitating the likelihood of quitting, is not essential to the success of NRT.

Population-based study of event-rate, incidence, case fatality, and mortality for all acute vascular events in all arterial territories (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events have common underlying arterial pathology, risk factors, and preventive treatments, but they are rarely studied concurrently. In the Oxford Vascular Study, we determined the comparative epidemiology of different acute vascular syndromes, their current burdens, and the potential effect of the ageing population on future rates. METHODS: We prospectively assessed all individuals presenting with an acute vascular event of any type in any arterial territory irrespective of age in a population of 91 106 in Oxfordshire, UK, in 2002-05. FINDINGS: 2024 acute vascular events occurred in 1657 individuals: 918 (45%) cerebrovascular (618 stroke, 300 transient ischaemic attacks [TIA]); 856 (42%) coronary vascular (159 ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 316 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 218 unstable angina, 163 sudden cardiac death); 188 (9%) peripheral vascular (43 aortic, 53 embolic visceral or limb ischaemia, 92 critical limb ischaemia); and 62 unclassifiable deaths. Relative incidence of cerebrovascular events compared with coronary events was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06-1.33) overall; 1.40 (1.23-1.59) for non-fatal events; and 1.21 (1.04-1.41) if TIA and unstable angina were further excluded. Event and incidence rates rose steeply with age in all arterial territories, with 735 (80%) cerebrovascular, 623 (73%) coronary, and 147 (78%) peripheral vascular events in 12 886 (14%) individuals aged 65 years or older; and 503 (54%), 402 (47%), and 105 (56%), respectively, in the 5919 (6%) aged 75 years or older. Although case-fatality rates increased with age, 736 (47%) of 1561 non-fatal events occurred at age 75 years or older. INTERPRETATION: The high rates of acute vascular events outside the coronary arterial territory and the steep rise in event rates with age in all territories have implications for prevention strategies, clinical trial design, and the targeting of funds for service provision and research.

A children's acute respiratory illness scale (CARIFS) predicted functional severity and family burden.

OBJECTIVE: The Canadian Acute Respiratory Illness and Flu Scale (CARIFS) was developed to measure illness severity in children with acute respiratory infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate its performance in a European primary care setting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: 178 children (median age 3 years) with cough and fever were recruited in UK general practice. Perceived severity of illness at recruitment was recorded by parents, doctors, and nurses. Parents also completed an illness diary, including the CARIF scale, until their child had recovered. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 parents. RESULTS: Parents found CARIFS relatively easy and quick to complete (78% of parents returned a fully completed diary covering the duration of the illness), internal consistency was high (minimum item correlation with total score 0.22; overall Cronbach's alpha statistic 0.85), and responsiveness to improvement in health was good (observed effect size of 0.45 at 8 h). At presentation, however, neither the overall CARIFS score nor the clinical element of the score correlated with physician assessment of clinical severity. CONCLUSION: Of the three recognized domains of illness severity, CARIFS appears to be a good and valid measure of functional severity and burden of illness to the parent but it may not be a good measure of physiological severity.

Nicotine replacement therapy for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: The aim of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is to replace nicotine from cigarettes. This reduces withdrawal symptoms associated with smoking cessation thus helping resist the urge to smoke cigarettes. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this review were:to determine the effectiveness of the different forms of NRT (chewing gum, transdermal patches, nasal spray, inhalers and tablets) in achieving abstinence from cigarettes, or a sustained reduction in amount smoked; to determine whether the effect is influenced by the clinical setting in which the smoker is recruited and treated, the dosage and form of the NRT used, or the intensity of additional advice and support offered to the smoker; to determine whether combinations of NRT are more effective than one type alone; to determine its effectiveness compared to other pharmacotherapies. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group trials register in March 2004. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials in which NRT was compared to placebo or to no treatment, or where different doses of NRT were compared. We excluded trials which did not report cessation rates, and those with follow up of less than six months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data in duplicate on the type of participants, the dose, duration and form of nicotine therapy, the outcome measures, method of randomization, and completeness of follow up. The main outcome measure was abstinence from smoking after at least six months of follow up. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence for each trial, and biochemically validated rates if available. For each study we calculated summary odds ratios. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect model. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 123 trials; 103 contributing to the primary comparison between NRT and a placebo or non-NRT control group. The odds ratio (OR) for abstinence with NRT compared to control was 1.77 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.66 to 1.88). The ORs for the different forms of NRT were 1.66 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.81) for gum, 1.81 (95% CI: 1.63 to 2.02) for patches, 2.35 (95% CI: 1.63 to 3.38) for nasal spray, 2.14 (95% CI: 1.44 to 3.18) for inhaled nicotine and 2.05 (95% CI: 1.62 to 2.59) for nicotine sublingual tablet/lozenge. These odds were largely independent of the duration of therapy, the intensity of additional support provided or the setting in which the NRT was offered. In highly dependent smokers there was a significant benefit of 4 mg gum compared with 2 mg gum (OR 2.20, 95% CI: 1.85 to 3.25). There was weak evidence that combinations of forms of NRT are more effective. Higher doses of nicotine patch may produce small increases in quit rates. Only one study directly compared NRT to another pharmacotherapy. In this study quit rates with bupropion were higher than with nicotine patch or placebo. REVIEWERS' CONCLUSIONS: All of the commercially available forms of NRT (gum, transdermal patch, nasal spray, inhaler and sublingual tablets/lozenges) are effective as part of a strategy to promote smoking cessation. They increase the odds of quitting approximately 1.5 to 2 fold regardless of setting. The effectiveness of NRT appears to be largely independent of the intensity of additional support provided to the smoker. Provision of more intense levels of support, although beneficial in facilitating the likelihood of quitting, is not essential to the success of NRT.

Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of stroke is predicted to rise because of the rapidly ageing population. However, over the past two decades, findings of randomised trials have identified several interventions that are effective in prevention of stroke. Reliable data on time-trends in stroke incidence, major risk factors, and use of preventive treatments in an ageing population are required to ascertain whether implementation of preventive strategies can offset the predicted rise in stroke incidence. We aimed to obtain these data. METHODS: We ascertained changes in incidence of transient ischaemic attack and stroke, risk factors, and premorbid use of preventive treatments from 1981-84 (Oxford Community Stroke Project; OCSP) to 2002-04 (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC). FINDINGS: Of 476 patients with transient ischaemic attacks or strokes in OXVASC, 262 strokes and 93 transient ischaemic attacks were incident events. Despite more complete case-ascertainment than in OCSP, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke fell by 29% (relative incidence 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.83, p=0.0002). Incidence declined by more than 50% for primary intracerebral haemorrhage (0.47, 0.27-0.83, p=0.01) but was unchanged for subarachnoid haemorrhage (0.83, 0.44-1.57, p=0.57). Thus, although 28% more incident strokes (366 vs 286) were expected in OXVASC due to demographic change alone (33% increase in those aged 75 or older), the observed number fell (262 vs 286). Major reductions were recorded in mortality rates for incident stroke (0.63, 0.44-0.90, p=0.02) and in incidence of disabling or fatal stroke (0.60, 0.50-0.73, p<0.0001), but no change was seen in case-fatality due to incident stroke (17.2% vs 17.8%; age and sex adjusted relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.57-1.28, p=0.45). Comparison of premorbid risk factors revealed substantial reductions in the proportion of smokers, mean total cholesterol, and mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and major increases in premorbid treatment with antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, and blood pressure lowering drugs (all p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION: The age-specific incidence of major stroke in Oxfordshire has fallen by 40% over the past 20 years in association with increased use of preventive treatments and major reductions in premorbid risk factors.