Personalizing progressive changes to brain structure in Alzheimer's disease using normative modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual variability in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we used normative modeling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS: Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n ≈ 58k). These models were used to calculate regional z scores in 3233 T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging time-series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with z scores < -1.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS: tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change. DISCUSSION: Individual patients' atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC. HIGHLIGHTS: Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time. Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans. The number of brain-structure outliers increased over time in people with AD. Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD. People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.

Dissecting Heterogeneity in Functional Network Connectivity Aberrations in Antipsychotic Medication-Naïve First Episode Psychosis Patients - A Normative Modeling Study.

Importance: While there is a general consensus that functional connectome pathology is a key mechanism underlying psychosis spectrum disorders, the literature is plagued with inconsistencies and translation into clinical practice is non-existent. This is perhaps because group-level findings may not be accurate reflections of pathology at the individual patient level. Objective: To characterize inter-individual heterogeneity in functional networks and investigate if normative values can be leveraged to identify biologically less heterogeneous subgroups of patients. Design Setting and Participants: We used data collected in a case-control study conducted at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB). We recruited antipsychotic medication-naïve first-episode psychosis patients from UAB outpatient, inpatient, and emergency room settings. Main Outcomes and Measures: Individual-level patterns of deviations from a normative reference range in resting-state functional networks using the Yeo-17 atlas for parcellations. Results: Statistical analyses included 108 medication-naïve first-episode psychosis patients. We found that there is a high level of inter-individual heterogeneity in resting-state network connectivity deviations from the normative reference range. Interestingly 48% of patients did not have any functional connectivity deviations, and no more than 11.1% of patients shared functional deviations between the same regions of interest. In a post hoc analysis, we grouped patients based on deviations into four theoretically possible groups. We discovered that all four groups do exist in our experimental data and showed that subgroups based on deviation profiles were significantly less heterogeneous compared to the overall group (positive deviation group: z= -2.88, p = 0.002; negative deviation group: z= -3.36, p<0.001). Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings experimentally demonstrate that there is a high level of inter-individual heterogeneity in resting-state network pathology in first-episode psychosis patients which support the idea that group-level findings are not accurate reflections of pathology at the individual level. We also demonstrated that normative functional connectivity deviations may have utility for identifying biologically less heterogeneous subgroups of patients, even though they are not distinguishable clinically. Our findings constitute a significant step towards making precision psychiatry a reality, where patients are selected for treatments based on their individual biological characteristics. KEY POINTS: Question: How heterogeneous is individual-level resting-state functional network pathology in patients suffering from a first psychotic episode? Can normative reference values in functional network connectivity be leveraged to identify biologically more homogenous subgroups of patients?Findings: We report that functional network pathology is highly heterogeneous, with no more than 11% of patients sharing functional deviations between the same regions of interest.Meaning: Normative modeling is a tool that can map individual neurobiological differences and enables the classification of a clinically heterogenous patient group into subgroups that are neurobiologically less heterogenous.

Multiscale heterogeneity of white matter morphometry in psychiatric disorders.

Background: Inter-individual variability in neurobiological and clinical characteristics in mental illness is often overlooked by classical group-mean case-control studies. Studies using normative modelling to infer person-specific deviations of grey matter volume have indicated that group means are not representative of most individuals. The extent to which this variability is present in white matter morphometry, which is integral to brain function, remains unclear. Methods: We applied Warped Bayesian Linear Regression normative models to T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging data and mapped inter-individual variability in person-specific white matter volume deviations in 1,294 cases (58% male) diagnosed with one of six disorders (attention-deficit/hyperactivity, autism, bipolar, major depressive, obsessive-compulsive and schizophrenia) and 1,465 matched controls (54% male) recruited across 25 scan sites. We developed a framework to characterize deviation heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales, from individual voxels, through inter-regional connections, specific brain regions, and spatially extended brain networks. Results: The specific locations of white matter volume deviations were highly heterogeneous across participants, affecting the same voxel in fewer than 8% of individuals with the same diagnosis. For autism and schizophrenia, negative deviations (i.e., areas where volume is lower than normative expectations) aggregated into common tracts, regions and large-scale networks in up to 35% of individuals. Conclusions: The prevalence of white matter volume deviations was lower than previously observed in grey matter, and the specific location of these deviations was highly heterogeneous when considering voxel-wise spatial resolution. Evidence of aggregation within common pathways and networks was apparent in schizophrenia and autism but not other disorders.

Social Cognition and Functional Connectivity in Early and Chronic Schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with schizophrenia (SZ) experience impairments in social cognition that contribute to poor functional outcomes. However, mechanisms of social cognitive dysfunction in SZ remain poorly understood, which impedes the design of novel interventions to improve outcomes. In this preregistered project, we examined the representation of social cognition in the brain's functional architecture in early and chronic SZ. METHODS: The study contains 2 parts: a confirmatory and an exploratory portion. In the confirmatory portion, we identified resting-state connectivity disruptions evident in early and chronic SZ. We performed a connectivity analysis using regions associated with social cognitive dysfunction in early and chronic SZ to test whether aberrant connectivity observed in chronic SZ (n = 47 chronic SZ and n = 52 healthy control participants) was also present in early SZ (n = 71 early SZ and n = 47 healthy control participants). In the exploratory portion, we assessed the out-of-sample generalizability and precision of predictive models of social cognition. We used machine learning to predict social cognition and established generalizability with out-of-sample testing and confound control. RESULTS: Results revealed decreases between the left inferior frontal gyrus and the intraparietal sulcus in early and chronic SZ, which were significantly associated with social and general cognition and global functioning in chronic SZ and with general cognition and global functioning in early SZ. Predictive modeling revealed the importance of out-of-sample evaluation and confound control. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides insights into the functional architecture in early and chronic SZ and suggests that inferior frontal gyrus-intraparietal sulcus connectivity could be a prognostic biomarker of social impairments and a target for future interventions (e.g., neuromodulation) focused on improved social functioning.

Dissecting task-based fMRI activity using normative modelling: an application to the Emotional Face Matching Task.

Functional neuroimaging has contributed substantially to understanding brain function but is dominated by group analyses that index only a fraction of the variation in these data. It is increasingly clear that parsing the underlying heterogeneity is crucial to understand individual differences and the impact of different task manipulations. We estimate large-scale (N = 7728) normative models of task-evoked activation during the Emotional Face Matching Task, which enables us to bind heterogeneous datasets to a common reference and dissect heterogeneity underlying group-level analyses. We apply this model to a heterogenous patient cohort, to map individual differences between patients with one or more mental health diagnoses relative to the reference cohort and determine multivariate associations with transdiagnostic symptom domains. For the face>shapes contrast, patients have a higher frequency of extreme deviations which are spatially heterogeneous. In contrast, normative models for faces>baseline have greater predictive value for individuals' transdiagnostic functioning. Taken together, we demonstrate that normative modelling of fMRI task-activation can be used to illustrate the influence of different task choices and map replicable individual differences, and we encourage its application to other neuroimaging tasks in future studies.

The impact of psychosocial adversity on brain and behaviour: an overview of existing knowledge and directions for future research.

Environmental experiences play a critical role in shaping the structure and function of the brain. Its plasticity in response to different external stimuli has been the focus of research efforts for decades. In this review, we explore the effects of adversity on brain's structure and function and its implications for brain development, adaptation, and the emergence of mental health disorders. We are focusing on adverse events that emerge from the immediate surroundings of an individual, i.e., microenvironment. They include childhood maltreatment, peer victimisation, social isolation, affective loss, domestic conflict, and poverty. We also take into consideration exposure to environmental toxins. Converging evidence suggests that different types of adversity may share common underlying mechanisms while also exhibiting unique pathways. However, they are often studied in isolation, limiting our understanding of their combined effects and the interconnected nature of their impact. The integration of large, deep-phenotyping datasets and collaborative efforts can provide sufficient power to analyse high dimensional environmental profiles and advance the systematic mapping of neuronal mechanisms. This review provides a background for future research, highlighting the importance of understanding the cumulative impact of various adversities, through data-driven approaches and integrative multimodal analysis techniques.

Alzheimer's disease heterogeneity revealed by neuroanatomical normative modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Overlooking the heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease (AD) may lead to diagnostic delays and failures. Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual brain variation and may inform our understanding of individual differences in AD-related atrophy. METHODS: We applied neuroanatomical normative modeling to magnetic resonance imaging from a real-world clinical cohort with confirmed AD (n = 86). Regional cortical thickness was compared to a healthy reference cohort (n = 33,072) and the number of outlying regions was summed (total outlier count) and mapped at individual- and group-levels. RESULTS: The superior temporal sulcus contained the highest proportion of outliers (60%). Elsewhere, overlap between patient atrophy patterns was low. Mean total outlier count was higher in patients who were non-amnestic, at more advanced disease stages, and without depressive symptoms. Amyloid burden was negatively associated with outlier count. DISCUSSION: Brain atrophy in AD is highly heterogeneous and neuroanatomical normative modeling can be used to explore anatomo-clinical correlations in individual patients.

Population-wide cerebellar growth models of children and adolescents.

In the past, the cerebellum has been best known for its crucial role in motor function. However, increasingly more findings highlight the importance of cerebellar contributions in cognitive functions and neurodevelopment. Using a total of 7240 neuroimaging scans from 4862 individuals, we describe and provide detailed, openly available models of cerebellar development in childhood and adolescence (age range: 6-17 years), an important time period for brain development and onset of neuropsychiatric disorders. Next to a traditionally used anatomical parcellation of the cerebellum, we generated growth models based on a recently proposed functional parcellation. In both, we find an anterior-posterior growth gradient mirroring the age-related improvements of underlying behavior and function, which is analogous to cerebral maturation patterns and offers evidence for directly related cerebello-cortical developmental trajectories. Finally, we illustrate how the current approach can be used to detect cerebellar abnormalities in clinical samples.

Smartphone keyboard dynamics predict affect in suicidal ideation.

While digital phenotyping provides opportunities for unobtrusive, real-time mental health assessments, the integration of its modalities is not trivial due to high dimensionalities and discrepancies in sampling frequencies. We provide an integrated pipeline that solves these issues by transforming all modalities to the same time unit, applying temporal independent component analysis (ICA) to high-dimensional modalities, and fusing the modalities with linear mixed-effects models. We applied our approach to integrate high-quality, daily self-report data with BiAffect keyboard dynamics derived from a clinical suicidality sample of mental health outpatients. Applying the ICA to the self-report data (104 participants, 5712 days of data) revealed components related to well-being, anhedonia, and irritability and social dysfunction. Mixed-effects models (55 participants, 1794 days) showed that less phone movement while typing was associated with more anhedonia (ß = -0.12, p = 0.00030). We consider this method to be widely applicable to dense, longitudinal digital phenotyping data.

Estimating cortical thickness trajectories in children across different scanners using transfer learning from normative models.

This work illustrates the use of normative models in a longitudinal neuroimaging study of children aged 6-17 years and demonstrates how such models can be used to make meaningful comparisons in longitudinal studies, even when individuals are scanned with different scanners across successive study waves. More specifically, we first estimated a large-scale reference normative model using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression from N = 42,993 individuals across the lifespan and from dozens of sites. We then transfer these models to a longitudinal developmental cohort (N = 6285) with three measurement waves acquired on two different scanners that were unseen during estimation of the reference models. We show that the use of normative models provides individual deviation scores that are independent of scanner effects and efficiently accommodate inter-site variations. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence to guide the optimization of sample size for the transfer of prior knowledge about the distribution of regional cortical thicknesses. We show that a transfer set containing as few as 25 samples per site can lead to good performance metrics on the test set. Finally, we demonstrate the clinical utility of this approach by showing that deviation scores obtained from the transferred normative models are able to detect and chart morphological heterogeneity in individuals born preterm.

From smartphone data to clinically relevant predictions: A systematic review of digital phenotyping methods in depression.

BACKGROUND: Smartphone-based digital phenotyping enables potentially clinically relevant information to be collected as individuals go about their day. This could improve monitoring and interventions for people with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). The aim of this systematic review was to investigate current digital phenotyping features and methods used in MDD. METHODS: We searched PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science (10/11/2023) for articles including: (1) MDD population, (2) smartphone-based features, (3) validated ratings. Risk of bias was assessed using several sources. Studies were compared within analysis goals (correlating features with depression, predicting symptom severity, diagnosis, mood state/episode, other). Twenty-four studies (9801 participants) were included. RESULTS: Studies achieved moderate performance. Common themes included challenges from complex and missing data (leading to a risk of bias), and a lack of external validation. DISCUSSION: Studies made progress towards relating digital phenotypes to clinical variables, often focusing on time-averaged features. Methods investigating temporal dynamics more directly may be beneficial for patient monitoring. European Research Council consolidator grant: 101001118, Prospero: CRD42022346264, Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/s7ay4.

Smartphone keyboard dynamics predict affect in suicidal ideation.

While digital phenotyping provides opportunities for unobtrusive, real-time mental health assessments, the integration of its modalities is not trivial due to high dimensionalities and discrepancies in sampling frequencies. We provide an integrated pipeline that solves these issues by transforming all modalities to the same time unit, applying temporal independent component analysis (ICA) to high-dimensional modalities, and fusing the modalities with linear mixed-effects models. We applied our approach to integrate high-quality, daily self-report data with BiAffect keyboard dynamics derived from a clinical suicidality sample of mental health outpatients. Applying the ICA to the self-report data (104 participants, 5712 days of data) revealed components related to well-being, anhedonia, and irritability and social dysfunction. Mixed-effects models (55 participants, 1794 days) showed that less phone movement while typing was associated with more anhedonia (ß = -0.12, p = 0.00030). We consider this method to be widely applicable to dense, longitudinal digital phenotyping data.

Extreme deviations from the normative model reveal cortical heterogeneity and associations with negative symptom severity in first-episode psychosis from the OPTiMiSE and GAP studies.

There is currently no quantifiable method to predict long-term clinical outcomes in patients presenting with a first episode of psychosis. A major barrier to developing useful markers for this is biological heterogeneity, where many different pathological mechanisms may underly the same set of symptoms in different individuals. Normative modelling has been used to quantify this heterogeneity in established psychotic disorders by identifying regions of the cortex which are thinner than expected based on a normative healthy population range. These brain atypicalities are measured at the individual level and therefore potentially useful in a clinical setting. However, it is still unclear whether alterations in individual brain structure can be detected at the time of the first psychotic episode, and whether they are associated with subsequent clinical outcomes. We applied normative modelling of cortical thickness to a sample of first-episode psychosis patients, with the aim of quantifying heterogeneity and to use any pattern of cortical atypicality to predict symptoms and response to antipsychotic medication at timepoints from baseline up to 95 weeks (median follow-ups = 4). T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance images from the GAP and OPTiMiSE samples were processed with Freesurfer V6.0.0 yielding 148 cortical thickness features. An existing normative model of cortical thickness (n = 37,126) was adapted to integrate data from each clinical site and account for effects of gender and site. Our test sample consisted of control participants (n = 149, mean age = 26, SD = 6.7) and patient data (n = 295, mean age = 26, SD = 6.7), this sample was used for estimating deviations from the normative model and subsequent statistical analysis. For each individual, the 148 cortical thickness features were mapped to centiles of the normative distribution and converted to z-scores reflecting the distance from the population mean. Individual cortical thickness metrics of +/- 2.6 standard deviations from the mean were considered extreme deviations from the norm. We found that no more than 6.4% of psychosis patients had extreme deviations in a single brain region (regional overlap) demonstrating a high degree of heterogeneity. Mann-Whitney U tests were run on z-scores for each region and significantly lower z-scores were observed in FEP patients in the frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital lobes. Finally, linear mixed-effects modelling showed that negative deviations in cortical thickness in parietal and temporal regions at baseline are related to more severe negative symptoms over the medium-term. This study shows that even at the early stage of symptom onset normative modelling provides a framework to identify individualised cortical markers which can be used for early personalised intervention and stratification.

Regional, circuit and network heterogeneity of brain abnormalities in psychiatric disorders.

The substantial individual heterogeneity that characterizes people with mental illness is often ignored by classical case-control research, which relies on group mean comparisons. Here we present a comprehensive, multiscale characterization of the heterogeneity of gray matter volume (GMV) differences in 1,294 cases diagnosed with one of six conditions (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder and schizophrenia) and 1,465 matched controls. Normative models indicated that person-specific deviations from population expectations for regional GMV were highly heterogeneous, affecting the same area in <7% of people with the same diagnosis. However, these deviations were embedded within common functional circuits and networks in up to 56% of cases. The salience-ventral attention system was implicated transdiagnostically, with other systems selectively involved in depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Phenotypic differences between cases assigned the same diagnosis may thus arise from the heterogeneous localization of specific regional deviations, whereas phenotypic similarities may be attributable to the dysfunction of common functional circuits and networks.

Addressing Global Environmental Challenges to Mental Health Using Population Neuroscience: A Review.

Importance: Climate change, pollution, urbanization, socioeconomic inequality, and psychosocial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have caused massive changes in environmental conditions that affect brain health during the life span, both on a population level as well as on the level of the individual. How these environmental factors influence the brain, behavior, and mental illness is not well known. Observations: A research strategy enabling population neuroscience to contribute to identify brain mechanisms underlying environment-related mental illness by leveraging innovative enrichment tools for data federation, geospatial observation, climate and pollution measures, digital health, and novel data integration techniques is described. This strategy can inform innovative treatments that target causal cognitive and molecular mechanisms of mental illness related to the environment. An example is presented of the environMENTAL Project that is leveraging federated cohort data of over 1.5 million European citizens and patients enriched with deep phenotyping data from large-scale behavioral neuroimaging cohorts to identify brain mechanisms related to environmental adversity underlying symptoms of depression, anxiety, stress, and substance misuse. Conclusions and Relevance: This research will lead to the development of objective biomarkers and evidence-based interventions that will significantly improve outcomes of environment-related mental illness.

A stable and replicable neural signature of lifespan adversity in the adult brain.

Environmental adversities constitute potent risk factors for psychiatric disorders. Evidence suggests the brain adapts to adversity, possibly in an adversity-type and region-specific manner. However, the long-term effects of adversity on brain structure and the association of individual neurobiological heterogeneity with behavior have yet to be elucidated. Here we estimated normative models of structural brain development based on a lifespan adversity profile in a longitudinal at-risk cohort aged 25 years (n = 169). This revealed widespread morphometric changes in the brain, with partially adversity-specific features. This pattern was replicated at the age of 33 years (n = 114) and in an independent sample at 22 years (n = 115). At the individual level, greater volume contractions relative to the model were predictive of future anxiety. We show a stable neurobiological signature of adversity that persists into adulthood and emphasize the importance of considering individual-level rather than group-level predictions to explain emerging psychopathology.

Fine-grained topographic organization within somatosensory cortex during resting-state and emotional face-matching task and its association with ASD traits.

Sensory atypicalities are particularly common in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Nevertheless, our knowledge about the divergent functioning of the underlying somatosensory region and its association with ASD phenotype features is limited. We applied a data-driven approach to map the fine-grained variations in functional connectivity of the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) to the rest of the brain in 240 autistic and 164 neurotypical individuals from the EU-AIMS LEAP dataset, aged between 7 and 30. We estimated the S1 connection topography ('connectopy') at rest and during the emotional face-matching (Hariri) task, an established measure of emotion reactivity, and accessed its association with a set of clinical and behavioral variables. We first demonstrated that the S1 connectopy is organized along a dorsoventral axis, mapping onto the S1 somatotopic organization. We then found that its spatial characteristics were linked to the individuals' adaptive functioning skills, as measured by the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, across the whole sample. Higher functional differentiation characterized the S1 connectopies of individuals with higher daily life adaptive skills. Notably, we detected significant differences between rest and the Hariri task in the S1 connectopies, as well as their projection maps onto the rest of the brain suggesting a task-modulating effect on S1 due to emotion processing. All in all, variation of adaptive skills appears to be reflected in the brain's mesoscale neural circuitry, as shown by the S1 connectivity profile, which is also differentially modulated during rest and emotional processing.

Personalising Alzheimer's Disease progression using brain atrophy markers.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroanatomical normative modelling can capture individual variability in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). We used neuroanatomical normative modelling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS: Cortical thickness and subcortical volume neuroanatomical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n~58k). These models were used to calculate regional Z-scores in 4361 T1-weighted MRI time-series scans. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers and mapped on the brain, and also summarised by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS: Rate of change in tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of MCI progression to AD. Brain Z-score maps showed that the hippocampus had the highest rate of atrophy change. CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC.

Mapping Normative Trajectories of Cognitive Function and Its Relation to Psychopathology Symptoms and Genetic Risk in Youth.

Background: Adolescence hosts a sharp increase in the incidence of mental disorders. The prodromal phases are often characterized by cognitive deficits that predate disease onset by several years. Characterization of cognitive performance in relation to normative trajectories may have value for early risk assessment and monitoring. Methods: Youth aged 8 to 21 years (N = 6481) from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort were included. Performance scores from a computerized neurocognitive battery were decomposed using principal component analysis, yielding a general cognitive score. Items reflecting various aspects of psychopathology from self-report questionnaires and collateral caregiver information were decomposed using independent component analysis, providing individual domain scores. Using normative modeling and Bayesian statistics, we estimated normative trajectories of cognitive function and tested for associations between cognitive deviance and psychopathological domain scores. In addition, we tested for associations with polygenic scores for mental and behavioral disorders often involving cognition, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and Alzheimer's disease. Results: More negative normative cognitive deviations were associated with higher general psychopathology burden and domains reflecting positive and prodromal psychosis, attention problems, norm-violating behavior, and anxiety. In addition, better performance was associated with higher joint burden of depression, suicidal ideation, and negative psychosis symptoms. The analyses revealed no evidence for associations with polygenic scores. Conclusions: Our results show that cognitive performance is associated with general and specific domains of psychopathology in youth. These findings support the close links between cognition and psychopathology in youth and highlight the potential of normative modeling for early risk assessment.

Revealing Individual Neuroanatomical Heterogeneity in Alzheimer Disease Using Neuroanatomical Normative Modeling.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Alzheimer disease (AD) is highly heterogeneous, with marked individual differences in clinical presentation and neurobiology. To explore this, we used neuroanatomical normative modeling to index regional patterns of variability in cortical thickness. We aimed to characterize individual differences and outliers in cortical thickness in patients with AD, people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and controls. Furthermore, we assessed the relationships between cortical thickness heterogeneity and cognitive function, ß-amyloid, phosphorylated-tau, and ApoE genotype. Finally, we examined whether cortical thickness heterogeneity was predictive of conversion from MCI to AD. METHODS: Cortical thickness measurements across 148 brain regions were obtained from T1-weighted MRI scans from 62 sites of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. AD was determined by clinical and neuropsychological examination with no comorbidities present. Participants with MCI had reported memory complaints, and controls were cognitively normal. A neuroanatomical normative model indexed cortical thickness distributions using a separate healthy reference data set (n = 33,072), which used hierarchical Bayesian regression to predict cortical thickness per region using age and sex, while adjusting for site noise. Z-scores per region were calculated, resulting in a Z-score brain map per participant. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers. RESULTS: Patients with AD (n = 206) had a median of 12 outlier regions (out of a possible 148), with the highest proportion of outliers (47%) in the parahippocampal gyrus. For 62 regions, over 90% of these patients had cortical thicknesses within the normal range. Patients with AD had more outlier regions than people with MCI (n = 662) or controls (n = 159) (F(2, 1,022) = 95.39, p = 2.0 × 10-16). They were also more dissimilar to each other than people with MCI or controls (F(2, 1,024) = 209.42, p = 2.2 × 10-16). A greater number of outlier regions were associated with worse cognitive function, CSF protein concentrations, and an increased risk of converting from MCI to AD within 3 years (hazard ratio 1.028, 95% CI 1.016-1.039, p = 1.8 × 10-16). DISCUSSION: Individualized normative maps of cortical thickness highlight the heterogeneous effect of AD on the brain. Regional outlier estimates have the potential to be a marker of disease and could be used to track an individual's disease progression or treatment response in clinical trials.