Reduction in the potential distribution of bumble bees (Apidae: Bombus) in Mesoamerica under different climate change scenarios: Conservation implications.

Bumble bees are an ecologically and economically important group of pollinating insects worldwide. Global climate change is predicted to affect bumble bee ecology including habitat suitability and geographic distribution. Our study aims to estimate the impact of projected climate change on 18 Mesoamerican bumble bee species. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) using current and future climate emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). Regardless of the scenario and model applied, our results suggest that all bumble bee species are predicted to undergo a reduction in their potential distribution and habitat suitability due to projected climate change. ENMs based on low emission scenarios predict a distribution loss ranging from 7% to 67% depending on the species for the year 2050. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction of bumble bee geographic range shape will be more evident at the margins of their distribution. The reduction of suitable habitat is predicted to be accompanied by a 100-500 m upslope change in altitude and 1-581 km shift away from the current geographic centroid of a species' distribution. On average, protected natural areas in Mesoamerica cover ~14% of each species' current potential distribution, and this proportion is predicted to increase to ~23% in the high emission climate change scenarios. Our models predict that climate change will reduce Mesoamerican bumble bee habitat suitability, especially for rare species, by reducing their potential distribution ranges and suitability. The small proportion of current and future potential distribution falling in protected natural areas suggests that such areas will likely have marginal contribution to bumble bee habitat conservation. Our results have the capacity to inform stakeholders in designing effective landscape management for bumble bees, which may include developing restoration plans for montane pine oak forests habitats and native flowering plants.

Calidad de las estadísticas de mortalidad en Cuba según cuantificación de causas de muerte imprecisas / Quality of mortality data in Cuba according to quantification of unspecific causes of death

La baja calidad de las estadísticas, de mortalidad implica confusión y riesgo para la administración social en salud. Objetivos: apreciar la calidad de las estadísticas de mortalidad en Cuba mediante la cuantificación de causas bàsicas de muerte imprecisas codificadas según cinco grupos de códigos indeseados o silenciosos. Estudio descriptivo que abarcó el universo de certificados médicos de defunción registrados entre 1989 y 2008. En el 7,2 por ciento de las certificaciones se codificó la causa bàsica de muerte con códigos de los grupos I al IV. Considerando un quinto grupo de causas de muerte inespecíficas, el porcentaje ascendió a 9,8. El grupo III: enfermedades circulatorias, fue el de mayor contribución, seguido del grupo I: causas mal definidas, donde se incrementó la tendencia al reporte. La bronconeumonía hipostàtica concentró el 35,4 por ciento de las certificaciones del grupo V, seguida de la insuficiencia renal y el embolismo pulmonar. La frecuencia de reporte de causas de muerte imprecisas en Cuba es baja, lo que habla a favor de buena calidad de la información estadística de mortalidad. Los grupos de códigos utilizados resultan factibles de utilizar como herramientas de clasificación. Se recomienda actualizar conocimientos en el llenado de los certificados médicos de defunción a los médicos y mejorar la exigencia y normatividad de los procesos

Low quality of mortality data leads to confusion and risk for social management in health. Objectives: to assess the quality of mortality data in Cuba through quantification of unspecific basic causes of death classified according to five groups of undesirable or silent codes. Methods Descriptive study comprising the universe of death certificates recorded in the 1989-2008 period. In 7,2 percent of certificates, the basic cause of death was encoded by using the codes included in the groups 1 to 4; a fifth group of unspecific causes of death was considered, which increased the percentage to 9,8. Group 3 comprising the circulatory system diseases exhibited the greatest contribution followed by group 1 including ill-defined causes where the tendency to report rose. Hypostatic bronchopneumonia accounted for 35,4 percent of the group 5 certificates, followed by renal failure and pulmonary embolism. Conclusions The frequency of unspecific causes of death reports is low in Cuba, which speaks for the good quality of statistical mortality information. The code groups are feasible for their use as classification tools. It is recommended to update knowledge of physicians on how to fill out death certificates, and at the same time, to improve the requirements and standardization of these processes

Calidad de las estadísticas de mortalidad en provincias cubanas según cuantificación de causas de muerte imprecisas / Quality of mortality data in the Cuban provinces according to quantification of unspecific causes of death

La baja calidad de las estadísticas de mortalidad afecta la administración en salud. Objetivos: apreciar la calidad de las estadísticas de mortalidad cubanas en todas las provincias del país mediante la cuantificación de causas bàsicas de muerte imprecisas codificadas según cinco grupos de códigos indeseados o silenciosos. Estudio descriptivo que abarcó el universo de certificados médicos de defunción registrados durante el trienio 2005-2007. La estrategia de investigación se basó en la revisión documental y la definición de indicadores de calidad. Las provincias de mayor reporte de los códigos estudiados fueron Ciego de Ávila, Pinar del Río, Matanzas, Granma, La Habana y Camagüey, y en particular, para los códigos del grupo I, Ciego de Ávila, Isla de la Juventud, Pinar del Río y La Habana. Las regiones con tasas de reporte de causas indeseadas màs altas fueron la Central y la Occidental. La frecuencia de reporte de causas de muerte imprecisas en las provincias en general, es baja, con variaciones que apuntan a mejor calidad en los procesos para unos territorios con respecto a otros, lo que permite recomendar acciones diferenciadas en ellos y establecer rangos de prioridad y temßticas

Low quality of mortality data affects health management. Objectives: to identify the quality of mortality data in all the Cuban provinces through quantification of unspecific basic causes of death classified according to five groups of undesirable or silent codes. Methods Descriptive study covering the universe of death certificates recorded in the years 2005, 2006 and 2007. The research strategy was based on the documentary review and the definition of quality indicators. The provinces that mostly reported most the studied codes were Ciego de Avila, Pinar del Río, Matanzas, Gramma, La Habana and Camaguey; particularly, the group 1 codes were recorded in Ciego de Avila, Isla de la Juventud, Pinar del Río y La Habana. The regions having the highest rates of undesirable cause reports were the central and the western regions. The frequency of unspecific causes of death reports seen at the provinces was generally low, with some fluctuations that show better quality of the processes in some territories than in others. This allows recommending the taking of differentiated actions in the provinces and setting priority and topic ranges