Predicting Suicides Among US Army Soldiers After Leaving Active Service.

Importance: The suicide rate of military servicemembers increases sharply after returning to civilian life. Identifying high-risk servicemembers before they leave service could help target preventive interventions. Objective: To develop a model based on administrative data for regular US Army soldiers that can predict suicides 1 to 120 months after leaving active service. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, a consolidated administrative database was created for all regular US Army soldiers who left service from 2010 through 2019. Machine learning models were trained to predict suicides over the next 1 to 120 months in a random 70% training sample. Validation was implemented in the remaining 30%. Data were analyzed from March 2023 through March 2024. Main outcome and measures: The outcome was suicide in the National Death Index. Predictors came from administrative records available before leaving service on sociodemographics, Army career characteristics, psychopathologic risk factors, indicators of physical health, social networks and supports, and stressors. Results: Of the 800 579 soldiers in the cohort (84.9% male; median [IQR] age at discharge, 26 [23-33] years), 2084 suicides had occurred as of December 31, 2019 (51.6 per 100 000 person-years). A lasso model assuming consistent slopes over time discriminated as well over all but the shortest risk horizons as more complex stacked generalization ensemble machine learning models. Test sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.87 (SE = 0.06) for suicides in the first month after leaving service to 0.72 (SE = 0.003) for suicides over 120 months. The 10% of soldiers with highest predicted risk accounted for between 30.7% (SE = 1.8) and 46.6% (SE = 6.6) of all suicides across horizons. Calibration was for the most part better for the lasso model than the super learner model (both estimated over 120-month horizons.) Net benefit of a model-informed prevention strategy was positive compared with intervene-with-all or intervene-with-none strategies over a range of plausible intervention thresholds. Sociodemographics, Army career characteristics, and psychopathologic risk factors were the most important classes of predictors. Conclusions and relevance: These results demonstrated that a model based on administrative variables available at the time of leaving active Army service can predict suicides with meaningful accuracy over the subsequent decade. However, final determination of cost-effectiveness would require information beyond the scope of this report about intervention content, costs, and effects over relevant horizons in relation to the monetary value placed on preventing suicides.

Initial evaluation of a personalized advantage index to determine which individuals may benefit from mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for suicide prevention.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and evaluate a treatment matching algorithm to predict differential treatment response to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy for suicide prevention (MBCT-S) versus enhanced treatment-as-usual (eTAU). METHODS: Analyses used data from Veterans at high-risk for suicide assigned to either MBCT-S (n = 71) or eTAU (n = 69) in a randomized clinical trial. Potential predictors (n = 55) included available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive variables. Random forest models were used to predict risk of suicidal event (suicidal behaviors, or ideation resulting in hospitalization or emergency department visit) within 12 months following randomization, characterize the prediction, and develop a Personalized Advantage Index (PAI). RESULTS: A slightly better prediction model emerged for MBCT-S (AUC = 0.70) than eTAU (AUC = 0.63). Important outcome predictors for participants in the MBCT-S arm included PTSD diagnosis, decisional efficiency on a neurocognitive task (Go/No-Go), prior-year mental health residential treatment, and non-suicidal self-injury. Significant predictors for participants in the eTAU arm included past-year acute psychiatric hospitalizations, past-year outpatient psychotherapy visits, past-year suicidal ideation severity, and attentional control (indexed by Stroop task). A moderation analysis showed that fewer suicidal events occurred among those randomized to their PAI-indicated optimal treatment. CONCLUSIONS: PAI-guided treatment assignment may enhance suicide prevention outcomes. However, prior to real-world application, additional research is required to improve model accuracy and evaluate model generalization.

What I was thinking/what I would do differently: Technology-enabled traumatic stress support.

At the 39th meeting of the International Society of Traumatic Stress Studies, three leading researchers and clinicians in technology-enabled traumatic stress support were invited to reflect on their careers and contributions to the field. Dr. Brian P. Marx has led the development of large-scale technologies to screen, assess, and treat traumatic stress pathology across diverse etiologies and needs. Dr. Barbara O. Rothbaum, a pioneer in the development of virtual reality for exposure therapy, has demonstrated the efficacy and scalability of digital treatment for traumatic stress. Retired Col. Dr. Eric Vermetten has worked extensively on the intersection of basic mechanisms, novel psychological and biological treatment, and technology for scalable assessment and treatment, primarily in military and mass casualty contexts. The panelists were asked to reflect on their initial ambitions, concerns, unexpected challenges, and the influence of their work on new research trajectories. Their insights provide valuable lessons about the process and content of their work, and their pioneering efforts have significantly advanced the field of technology-enabled traumatic stress support.

Beyond a dichotomous operationalization of suicide attempts.

Suicide attempts (SAs) are commonly assessed by asking patients and study participants face-valid questions about whether an individual has engaged in any self-injurious behavior with the intent to die within a given timeframe. Unfortunately, for most clinical and scientific endeavors, only information about the presence vs. absence of a SA is documented and analyzed. In this Viewpoint, we discuss how such a dichotomous operationalization of SAs obscures important heterogeneity among those who have attempted suicide. There are several facets of SAs, beyond the simple presence vs. absence, that are important to consider because they have implications regarding acute and long-term clinical outcomes. These facets include the level of intent to die, the means used and associated risk for death, the actual medical consequences of the attempt, and the chronicity of the behavior. We discuss how considering these SA facets-in theory testing and refinement, the design, analysis, and interpretation of research findings, and clinical practice-will improve the impact of scientific findings. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Developing an individualized treatment rule for Veterans with major depressive disorder using electronic health records.

Efforts to develop an individualized treatment rule (ITR) to optimize major depressive disorder (MDD) treatment with antidepressant medication (ADM), psychotherapy, or combined ADM-psychotherapy have been hampered by small samples, small predictor sets, and suboptimal analysis methods. Analyses of large administrative databases designed to approximate experiments followed iteratively by pragmatic trials hold promise for resolving these problems. The current report presents a proof-of-concept study using electronic health records (EHR) of n = 43,470 outpatients beginning MDD treatment in Veterans Health Administration Primary Care Mental Health Integration (PC-MHI) clinics, which offer access not only to ADMs but also psychotherapy and combined ADM-psychotherapy. EHR and geospatial databases were used to generate an extensive baseline predictor set (5,865 variables). The outcome was a composite measure of at least one serious negative event (suicide attempt, psychiatric emergency department visit, psychiatric hospitalization, suicide death) over the next 12 months. Best-practices methods were used to adjust for nonrandom treatment assignment and to estimate a preliminary ITR in a 70% training sample and to evaluate the ITR in the 30% test sample. Statistically significant aggregate variation was found in overall probability of the outcome related to baseline predictors (AU-ROC = 0.68, S.E. = 0.01), with test sample outcome prevalence of 32.6% among the 5% of patients having highest predicted risk compared to 7.1% in the remainder of the test sample. The ITR found that psychotherapy-only was the optimal treatment for 56.0% of patients (roughly 20% lower risk of the outcome than if receiving one of the other treatments) and that treatment type was unrelated to outcome risk among other patients. Change in aggregate treatment costs of implementing this ITR would be negligible, as 16.1% fewer patients would be prescribed ADMs and 2.9% more would receive psychotherapy. A pragmatic trial would be needed to confirm the accuracy of the ITR.

Session-level effects of cognitive processing therapy and prolonged exposure on individual symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder among U.S. veterans.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the course of change in individual posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms during prolonged exposure therapy (PE) and cognitive processing therapy (CPT). METHOD: We analyzed data from a previously published randomized clinical trial comparing PE and CPT among male and female U.S. military veterans with PTSD (Schnurr et al., 2022). Using data from a self-rated PTSD symptom measure administered before each therapy session, we evaluated individual symptom change from pretreatment to final therapy session (N = 802). Then, using network intervention analysis, we modeled session-by-session PTSD symptom networks that included treatment allocation (CPT vs. PE) as a node in the networks, allowing us to compare individual symptom change following each session in each treatment. RESULTS: Relative to CPT, PE was associated with greater reduction in 10 PTSD symptoms from first to final session of therapy. Numerous treatment-specific effects on individual symptoms emerged during the treatment period; these session-level effects occurred only in symptoms relatively specific to the diagnosis of PTSD (e.g., avoidance, hypervigilance). PE was associated with greater reduction in avoidance following the introduction and early weeks of imaginal exposure. The treatments yielded comparable effects on trauma-related blame and negative beliefs from pretreatment to final therapy session. However, there were differences in session-level change in these symptoms that may reflect differential timing of interventions that reduce distorted cognitions within each treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Findings may facilitate the shared decision-making process for patients choosing between CPT and PE. Session-level results provide direction for future research on the specific intervention components of CPT and PE. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Alcohol consumption and dependence risk among male and female Veterans: Trajectories and predictors.

BACKGROUND: With few exceptions, previously conducted research on hazardous drinking among Veterans has employed samples in which the majority of participants identify as male. In addition, past studies have solely focused on alcohol consumption, rather than associated risk for dependence. In this study, we expanded upon the extant literature by investigating sex differences in trajectories and predictors of change in alcohol consumption and dependence risk among post-9/11 Veterans. METHODS: A national sample of 1649 Veterans (50.0% female) were recruited in a five-wave longitudinal study that followed Veterans for up to 16 years after deployment. We used growth curve modeling to investigate trajectories of change in alcohol consumption and dependence risk among men and women Veterans. We examined predictors of growth, including demographics, support and resources, psychiatric symptoms, and trauma exposure. RESULTS: Among male Veterans, alcohol consumption and dependence risk remained stagnant, which is in contrast to past work using non-Veteran samples. For female Veterans, consumption exhibited initial reductions that decelerated, and dependence risk reduced at a continuous rate. PTSD diagnosis was a significant predictor of individual differences in growth for men. Psychiatric symptoms (i.e., PTSD diagnosis, probable depression diagnosis, suicidal ideation) and psychosocial functioning were significant predictors of decreasing alcohol use for women. CONCLUSIONS: Results highlight important sex differences in patterns and predictors of change in alcohol consumption and dependence risk among post-9/11 Veterans. Findings are discussed in relation to screening for hazardous alcohol use and intervention strategies in this at-risk population.

Predicting Homelessness Among Transitioning U.S. Army Soldiers.

INTRODUCTION: This study develops a practical method to triage Army transitioning service members (TSMs) at highest risk of homelessness to target a preventive intervention. METHODS: The sample included 4,790 soldiers from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in 1 of 3 Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys followed by the third wave of the STARRS-LS online panel surveys (2020-2022). Two machine learning models were trained: a Stage-1 model that used administrative predictors and geospatial data available for all TSMs at discharge to identify high-risk TSMs for initial outreach; and a Stage-2 model estimated in the high-risk subsample that used self-reported survey data to help determine highest risk based on additional information collected from high-risk TSMs once they are contacted. The outcome in both models was homelessness within 12 months after leaving active service. RESULTS: Twelve-month prevalence of post-transition homelessness was 5.0% (SE=0.5). The Stage-1 model identified 30% of high-risk TSMs who accounted for 52% of homelessness. The Stage-2 model identified 10% of all TSMs (i.e., 33% of high-risk TSMs) who accounted for 35% of all homelessness (i.e., 63% of the homeless among high-risk TSMs). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can help target outreach and assessment of TSMs for homeless prevention interventions.

Design of a hybrid implementation effectiveness cluster randomized controlled trial of delivering written exposure therapy for PTSD in underserved primary care settings.

INTRODUCTION: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) results in substantial costs to society. Prevalence of PTSD among adults is high, especially among those presenting to primary care settings. Evidence-based psychotherapies (EBPs) for PTSD are available but dissemination and implementation within primary care settings is challenging. Building Experience for Treating Trauma and Enhancing Resilience (BETTER) examines the effectiveness of integrating Written Exposure Therapy (WET) within primary care collaborative care management (CoCM). WET is a brief exposure-based treatment that has the potential to address many challenges of delivering PTSD EBPs within primary care settings. METHODS: The study is a hybrid implementation effectiveness cluster-randomized controlled trial in which 12 Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) will be randomized to either CoCM plus WET (CoCM+WET) or CoCM only with 60 patients within each FQHC. The primary aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of CoCM+WET to improve PTSD and depression symptom severity. Secondary treatment outcomes are mental and physical health functioning. The second study aim is to examine implementation of WET within FQHCs using FQHC process data and staff interviews pre- and post-intervention. Exploratory aims are to examine potential moderators and mediators of the intervention. Assessments occur at baseline, and 3- and 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSION: The study has the potential to impact practice and improve clinical and public health outcomes. By establishing the effectiveness and feasibility of delivering a brief trauma-focused EBP embedded within CoCM in primary care, the study aims to improve PTSD outcomes for underserved patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Clinicaltrials.govNCT05330442).

Trauma exposure and transdiagnostic distress: Examining shared and posttraumatic stress disorder-specific associations.

We examined transdiagnostic and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)-specific associations with multiple forms of trauma exposure within a nationwide U.S. sample (N = 1,649, 50.0% female) of military veterans overselected for PTSD. A higher-order Distress factor was estimated using PTSD, major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) symptoms as indicators. A structural equation model spanning three assessment points over an average of 3.85 years was constructed to examine the unique roles of higher-order Distress and PTSD-specific variance in accounting for the associations between trauma exposure, measured using the Life Events Checklist (LEC) and Deployment Risk and Resiliency Inventory Combat subscale (DRRI-C), and psychosocial impairment. The results suggest the association between trauma exposure and PTSD symptoms was primarily mediated by higher-order distress (70.7% of LEC effect, 63.2% of DRRI-C effect), but PTSD severity retained a significant association with trauma exposure independent of distress, LEC: ß = .10, 95% CI [.06, .13]; DRRI-C: ß = .11, 95% CI [.07, .14]. Both higher-order distress, ß = .31, and PTSD-specific variance, ß = .36, were necessary to account for the association between trauma exposure and future impairment. Findings suggest that trauma exposure may contribute to comorbidity across a range of internalizing symptoms as well as to PTSD-specific presentations.

Is adequate dose adequate? An examination of the impact of psychotherapy on posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms utilizing Veterans Health Administration medical records.

Prior studies on individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined an adequate dose of psychotherapy as receiving at least nine sessions within a 15-week period. Yet, few studies have examined whether this definition of adequate dose is associated with meaningful change in PTSD symptoms over an extended period. To examine whether an adequate dose of individual or group psychotherapy was associated with PTSD symptom improvement, we identified mental health outpatient visits in the electronic medical record for a cohort of veterans enrolled in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) services (N = 1,649) across 5 years. Using latent growth curve modeling, we estimated the effect of receiving an adequate dose of psychotherapy on the PTSD symptom course. Among the sample, 992 participants (60.16%) received at least one individual therapy session and 506 participants (30.7%) received at least one group therapy session; of those, 226 (22.78%) received an adequate dose of individual therapy and 212 (41.9%) received an adequate dose of group therapy, respectively. An adequate individual therapy dose, but not group therapy dose, was associated with a decrease in PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) scores over time. This improvement was extremely gradual (average of 1.57 PCL-5 point decrease per year). Adequate dose of psychotherapy, defined as nine sessions of routine psychotherapy over 15 weeks, is associated with minimal symptom change. This suggests that commonly used definitions of adequate dose have minimal clinical utility. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

An empirical investigation of definitions of subthreshold posttraumatic stress disorder.

Subthreshold posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has long been recognized as an important construct that identifies a subgroup of individuals who report significant PTSD symptoms and associated disability but do not endorse enough symptoms to meet the criteria for a full PTSD diagnosis. Different investigators have defined subthreshold PTSD in various ways, making it difficult to interpret findings across studies. To address this problem, we systematically compared individuals who met criteria for nine different subthreshold PTSD definitions with individuals diagnosed with either full PTSD or no PTSD (i.e., failed to meet the criteria for a subthreshold definition) with respect to prevalence and associated clinical outcomes of interest. Participants were 1,082 veterans enrolled in the Veterans After Discharge Longitudinal Registry. PTSD and subthreshold PTSD diagnostic status were determined using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-5 (SCID-5) and validated self-report instruments were used to assess clinical outcomes. Across outcomes, subthreshold definitions generally identified a group of participants that was distinguishable from participants in both the PTSD and no PTSD groups, rs = .02-.47. We discuss the benefits and drawbacks of various subthreshold definitions and highlight the need for additional work evaluating these definitions across additional outcomes and samples. In the interim, we propose a working case definition of subthreshold PTSD as meeting any three of the four DSM-5 symptom criteria (i.e., Criteria B, C, D, and E) along with Criterion A and Criteria F-H. The results suggest subthreshold PTSD is a clinically meaningful construct.

Development and initial validation of the Mount Sinai Resilience Scale.

OBJECTIVE: The construct of psychological resilience has received increasing attention in the mental health field. This article describes the development and initial validation of a novel self-report resilience scale, which addresses gaps in the resilience measurement literature by assessing thoughts and behaviors that help promote resilience rather than traits, and simultaneously evaluating multiple factors previously associated with resilience. METHOD: Following consensus meetings focused on scale development, we conducted an online study (n = 1,864) of U.S. adults to develop and validate an initial version of the Mount Sinai Resilience Scale (MSRS). RESULTS: An exploratory factor analysis in a random 50% of the sample suggested a seven-factor solution; this solution was then generally supported by a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis in the remaining 50% of the sample. After removing poor-fitting items, a revised 24-item scale correlated in the expected directions with established measures of perceived resilience and resilience-related constructs (e.g., social support and optimism). CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, the results of this study provide initial support for the convergent and discriminant validity of the MSRS and describe its factor structure. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimated Average Treatment Effect of Psychiatric Hospitalization in Patients With Suicidal Behaviors: A Precision Treatment Analysis.

Importance: Psychiatric hospitalization is the standard of care for patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) with high suicide risk. However, the effect of hospitalization in reducing subsequent suicidal behaviors is poorly understood and likely heterogeneous. Objectives: To estimate the association of psychiatric hospitalization with subsequent suicidal behaviors using observational data and develop a preliminary predictive analytics individualized treatment rule accounting for heterogeneity in this association across patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: A machine learning analysis of retrospective data was conducted. All veterans presenting with suicidal ideation (SI) or suicide attempt (SA) from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2015, were included. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, to March 10, 2023. Subgroups were defined by primary psychiatric diagnosis (nonaffective psychosis, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and other) and suicidality (SI only, SA in past 2-7 days, and SA in past day). Models were trained in 70.0% of the training samples and tested in the remaining 30.0%. Exposures: Psychiatric hospitalization vs nonhospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fatal and nonfatal SAs within 12 months of ED/UC visits were identified in administrative records and the National Death Index. Baseline covariates were drawn from electronic health records and geospatial databases. Results: Of 196 610 visits (90.3% men; median [IQR] age, 53 [41-59] years), 71.5% resulted in hospitalization. The 12-month SA risk was 11.9% with hospitalization and 12.0% with nonhospitalization (difference, -0.1%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 0.2%). In patients with SI only or SA in the past 2 to 7 days, most hospitalization was not associated with subsequent SAs. For patients with SA in the past day, hospitalization was associated with risk reductions ranging from -6.9% to -9.6% across diagnoses. Accounting for heterogeneity, hospitalization was associated with reduced risk of subsequent SAs in 28.1% of the patients and increased risk in 24.0%. An individualized treatment rule based on these associations may reduce SAs by 16.0% and hospitalizations by 13.0% compared with current rates. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that psychiatric hospitalization is associated with reduced average SA risk in the immediate aftermath of an SA but not after other recent SAs or SI only. Substantial heterogeneity exists in these associations across patients. An individualized treatment rule accounting for this heterogeneity could both reduce SAs and avert hospitalizations.

The PTSD Criterion A debate: A brief history, current status, and recommendations for moving forward.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Criterion A, also known as the "stressor criterion," has been a major source of debate ever since PTSD was added to the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) in 1980. Since then, the traumatic stress field has held an ongoing debate about how to best define Criterion A and the events that it covers. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent race-based incidents, the Criterion A debate has been reinvigorated. In this paper, we review briefly the history of Criterion A and changes in its language across different editions of the DSM. We then describe the four main positions held by scholars involved in the Criterion A debate and carefully examine the support for those positions. We conclude by offering recommendations for moving forward.

An Item Response Theory Analysis of the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 Among Veterans.

We used item response theory (IRT) analysis to examine Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5) item performance using data from three large samples of veterans (total N = 808) using both binary and ordinal rating methods. Relative to binary ratings, ordinal ratings provided good coverage from well below to well above average within each symptom cluster. However, coverage varied by cluster, and item difficulties were unevenly distributed within each cluster, with numerous instances of redundancy. For both binary and ordinal scores, flashbacks, dissociative amnesia, and self-destructive behavior items showed a pattern of high difficulty but relatively poor discrimination. Results indicate that CAPS-5 ordinal ratings provide good severity coverage and that most items accurately differentiated between participants by severity. Observed uneven distribution and redundancy in item difficulty suggest there is opportunity to create an abbreviated version of the CAPS-5 for determining PTSD symptom severity, but not DSM-5 PTSD diagnosis, without sacrificing precision.

Benchmarking secondary outcomes to posttraumatic stress disorder symptom change in response to cognitive processing and written exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has high comorbidity with other psychiatric conditions, including depression, generalized anxiety, and suicidality. Evidence-based treatments (EBTs) for PTSD are effective at reducing PTSD symptoms. However, evidence on the impact of PTSD EBTs on comorbid conditions is mixed and often uses pre-post analyses, which disregards PTSD symptom response. This study replicated and extended prior work on benchmarking quality of life to PTSD symptom response to a broader range of secondary outcomes using a research-based metric of clinically meaningful PTSD symptom change. Ninety-five active duty military members seeking treatment for PTSD participated in a randomized noninferiority trial examining two cognitive behavioral therapies for PTSD: Written Exposure Therapy and Cognitive Processing Therapy. Participants completed clinician-administered and self-rating assessments at baseline and 10 weeks post-first treatment session and were classified as PTSD treatment responders or nonresponders. Data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed effects models with repeated measures with fixed effects of time and PTSD symptom response category. PTSD treatment responders experienced significant improvements in secondary outcomes; nonresponders demonstrated statistically significant, but not clinically meaningful, comorbid symptom change. Our findings provide evidence that successfully treating PTSD symptoms may also positively impact psychiatric comorbidity.

A practical risk calculator for suicidal behavior among transitioning U.S. Army soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS).

BACKGROUND: Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions. METHODS: We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample. RESULTS: Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10-30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9-92.5% of 12-month SAs. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.

Minimal important difference metrics and test-retest reliability of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 with a primary care sample.

The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) is a measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity that is widely used for clinical and research purposes. Although previous work has examined metrics of minimal important difference (MID) of the PCL-5 in veteran samples, no work has identified PCL-5 MID metrics among adults in primary care in the United States. In this secondary analysis, data were evaluated from primary care patients (N = 971) who screened positive for PTSD and participated in a large clinical trial in federally qualified health centers in three U.S. states. Participants primarily self-identified as women (70.2%) and White (70.3%). We calculated test-retest reliability using clinic registry data and multiple distribution- and anchor-based metrics of MID using baseline and follow-up survey data. Test-retest reliability (Pearson's r, Spearman's ρ, intraclass correlation coefficient) ranged from adequate to excellent (.79-.94), with the shortest time lag demonstrating the highest reliability estimate. The MID for the PCL-5 was estimated using multiple approaches. Distribution-based approaches indicated an MID range of 8.5-12.5, and anchor-based approaches indicated an MID range of 9.8-11.7. Taken together, the MID metrics indicate that PCL-5 change scores of 9-12 likely reflect real change in PTSD symptoms and indicate at least an MID for patients, whereas PCL-5 change scores of 5 or less likely are not reliable. These findings can help inform clinicians using the PCL-5 in similar populations to track patient responses to treatment and help researchers interpret PCL-5 score changes in clinical trials.

Written Exposure Therapy vs Prolonged Exposure Therapy in the Treatment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence-based treatments for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exist, but all require 8 to 15 sessions and thus are less likely to be completed than brief treatments. Written exposure therapy (WET) is a brief and efficacious treatment that has not been directly compared with prolonged exposure therapy (PE), a more time-intensive, exposure-based treatment. Objective: To determine whether WET is noninferior to PE in treating PTSD among veterans. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized noninferiority clinical trial was conducted between September 9, 2019, and April 30, 2022. Participants were 178 veterans with PTSD presenting to 1 of 3 Veterans Affairs medical centers. Inclusion criteria consisted of a primary diagnosis of PTSD and stable medication. Exclusion criteria included current psychotherapy for PTSD, high suicide risk, active psychosis, unstable bipolar disorder, and severe cognitive impairment. Independent evaluations were conducted at baseline and 10, 20, and 30 weeks after the first treatment session. Data were analyzed from January 1 to March 31, 2023. Interventions: Participants assigned to WET (n = 88) received five to seven 45- to 60-minute sessions. Participants assigned to PE (n = 90) received eight to fifteen 90-minute sessions. The WET sessions included 30 minutes of writing-based imaginal exposure conducted in session, whereas PE sessions included 40 minutes of in-session imaginal exposure and between-session in vivo exposures. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was change in PTSD symptom severity measured with the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5) from baseline to the 20-week assessment; noninferiority was defined as a less than 10-point difference between the 2 treatment groups. Difference in treatment dropout was also examined. Results: Of the 178 participants, 134 (75.3%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 44.97 (13.66) years. In terms of race, 37 participants (20.8%) were Black, 112 (62.9%) were White, 11 (6.2%) were more than 1 race, and 18 (10.1%) were of other race (including American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander [some participants did not specify their race when selecting the category "other"]); in terms of ethnicity, 19 participants (10.7%) were Hispanic. Changes in PTSD symptom severity from baseline to all subsequent assessments among individuals randomized to WET were noninferior relative to individuals randomized to PE. The largest difference between treatments was observed at 10 weeks and was in favor of WET (mean difference, 2.42 [95% CI, 0.35-1.46] points). Participants were significantly less likely to drop out of WET compared with PE (11 [12.5%] vs 32 [35.6%]; χ2 = 12.91; Cramer V = 0.27). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, WET was noninferior to PE in PTSD symptom change and was associated with significantly less attrition. Findings suggest that WET may transcend previously observed barriers to PTSD treatment for both patients and clinicians. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03962504.