Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. PURPOSE: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk. METHODS: This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors. RESULTS: At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk. CONCLUSION: The risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

Performance of digital technologies in assessing fall risks among older adults with cognitive impairment: a systematic review.

Older adults with cognitive impairment (CI) are twice as likely to fall compared to the general older adult population. Traditional fall risk assessments may not be suitable for older adults with CI due to their reliance on attention and recall. Hence, there is an interest in using objective technology-based fall risk assessment tools to assess falls within this population. This systematic review aims to evaluate the features and performance of technology-based fall risk assessment tools for older adults with CI. A systematic search was conducted across several databases such as PubMed and IEEE Xplore, resulting in the inclusion of 22 studies. Most studies focused on participants with dementia. The technologies included sensors, mobile applications, motion capture, and virtual reality. Fall risk assessments were conducted in the community, laboratory, and institutional settings; with studies incorporating continuous monitoring of older adults in everyday environments. Studies used a combination of technology-based inputs of gait parameters, socio-demographic indicators, and clinical assessments. However, many missed the opportunity to include cognitive performance inputs as predictors to fall risk. The findings of this review support the use of technology-based fall risk assessment tools for older adults with CI. Further advancements incorporating cognitive measures and additional longitudinal studies are needed to improve the effectiveness and clinical applications of these assessment tools. Additional work is also required to compare the performance of existing methods for fall risk assessment, technology-based fall risk assessments, and the combination of these approaches.

Mapping the value for money of precision medicine: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Objective: This study aimed to quantify heterogeneity in the value for money of precision medicine (PM) by application types across contexts and conditions and to quantify sources of heterogeneity to areas of particular promises or concerns as the field of PM moves forward. Methods: A systemic search was performed in Embase, Medline, EconLit, and CRD databases for studies published between 2011 and 2021 on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of PM interventions. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of one-time GDP per capita of each study country, the net monetary benefit (NMB) of PM was pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and study biases were examined using random-effects meta-regressions, jackknife sensitivity analysis, and the biases in economic studies checklist. Results: Among the 275 unique CEAs of PM, publicly sponsored studies found neither genetic testing nor gene therapy cost-effective in general, which was contradictory to studies funded by commercial entities and early stage evaluations. Evidence of PM being cost-effective was concentrated in a genetic test for screening, diagnosis, or as companion diagnostics (pooled NMBs, $48,152, $8,869, $5,693, p < 0.001), in the form of multigene panel testing (pooled NMBs = $31,026, p < 0.001), which only applied to a few disease areas such as cancer and high-income countries. Incremental effectiveness was an essential value driver for varied genetic tests but not gene therapy. Conclusion: Precision medicine's value for money across application types and contexts was difficult to conclude from published studies, which might be subject to systematic bias. The conducting and reporting of CEA of PM should be locally based and standardized for meaningful comparisons.

Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults. METHODS: A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies. RESULTS: Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae. CONCLUSION: This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

Reducing Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults From Clinicians' Perspectives: A Systems Modeling Approach.

Background and Objectives: Falls among older adults are a significant health problem globally. Studies of multicomponent fall prevention programs in randomized controlled trials demonstrate effectiveness in reducing falls; however, the translation of research into the community remains challenging. Although there is an increasing interest to understand the factors contributing to implementation barriers, the dynamic relationships between factors are less well examined. Furthermore, evidence on implementation barriers from Asia is lacking as most of these studies originate from the West. As such, this study aims to engage stakeholders in uncovering the factors that facilitate or inhibit implementing community-based fall prevention programs in Singapore, with a focus on the interrelationship between those factors. Research Design and Methods: Health care professionals familiar with fall prevention programs were invited to discuss the enablers and challenges to the implementation. This effort was facilitated using a systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to share ideas and create a common conceptual model of the challenges. The GMB employs various engagement techniques to draw on the experiences and perceptions of all stakeholders involved. Results: This process led to the development of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), a qualitative conceptual model of the dynamic relationships between the barriers and facilitators of implementing fall prevention programs. Results from the CLD show that implementation is influenced by two main drivers: health care provider factors that influenced referrals, and patient factors that influenced referral acceptance and long-term adherence. Key leverage points for potential interventions were identified as well. Discussion and Implications: The overall recommendation emphasized closer coordination and collaboration across providers to ensure sustainable and effective community-based fall prevention programs. This has to be supported by a national effort, involving a multidisciplinary stakeholder advisory group. These findings generated would be promising to guide future approaches to fall prevention.

Health System Transformation Playbook and Unified Care Model: an integrated design, systems & complexity thinking approach to health system transformation.

Health system transformation is a complex journey that often results in unintended consequences. Existing methods to drive health system transformation have intrinsic limitations which impede successful implementation in local contexts. The Health System Transformation Playbook is a design-, systems-, and complexity-thinking enabled methodology to systematically design, prioritize and test health system and services transformation actions, anchored on iterative story telling, model building and pathfinding processes that tackles the scale of socially and technologically complex adaptive systems through time. The Unified Care Model and its associated cascade of models are examples of ongoing application of Health System Transformation Playbook in a regional population health system in Singapore. Use of Health System Transformation Playbook enables stewards of health systems to gain a more systematic and coherent understanding of health systems and services planning and organization development, to accelerate transformation towards people-centered, integrated and value-driven health systems.

Systems modelling as an approach for eliciting the mechanisms for hip fracture recovery among older adults in a participatory stakeholder engagement setting.

Introduction: Due to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process. Methods: This research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions. Hip fracture stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the Group Model Building approach in a two-half-day workshop of 25 stakeholders. This approach combined different techniques to develop a comprehensive qualitative whole-system view model of the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery. Results: A conceptual, qualitative model of the dynamics of hip fracture recovery was developed that draws on stakeholders' personal experiences through a moderated interaction. Stakeholders identified four domains (i.e., expectation formation, rehabilitation, affordability/availability, and resilience building) that play a significant role in the hip fracture recovery journey.. Discussion: The insight that recovery of loss of function due to hip fracture is attributed to (a) the recognition of a gap between pre-fracture physical function and current physical function; and (b) the marshaling of psychological resilience to respond promptly to a physical functional loss via uptake of rehabilitation services is supported by findings and has several policy implications.

Pragmatic multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial to investigate the effectiveness of community-based falls prevention programme for older adults with falls risk in Singapore: a protocol paper.

INTRODUCTION: Falls are an important public health issue with consequences that include injuries, quality of life reduction and high healthcare costs. Studies show that falls prevention strategies are effective in reducing falls rate among community-dwelling older adults. However, the evaluation for effectiveness was usually done in a controlled setting with homogeneous population, and thus may not be generalisable to a wider population. This study aims to evaluate the impact of community falls prevention programmes with group-based strength and balance exercises, on falls risk and health outcomes for older adults with falls risk in Singapore. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pragmatic closed cohort stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design study, which involves sequential crossover of clusters from the waitlist control condition to the intervention condition, with the sequence of crossover randomly determined. The intervention will be sequentially rolled out to 12 clusters (a minimum of 5 participants/cluster), over 6 time periods with 8-week intervals in Central and North regions of Singapore. The primary analysis will be conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. A general linear mixed model or generalised estimating equation analysis appropriate for a multilevel longitudinal study incorporating an appropriate error distribution and link function will be used. Markov model will be developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost per fall prevented from the implementation of falls prevention strategies from a societal perspective. Conditional on there being clinically relevant differences in short-term outcomes, we will implement simulation modelling to project the long-term divergence in trajectories for outcomes and costs using the Markov model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained. Results will be disseminated in publications and other relevant platforms. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04788251.

Preferences for Enhanced Primary Care Services Among Older Individuals and Primary Care Physicians.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the factors that are most important for community-dwelling older individuals (i.e., users) and primary care (PC) providers to enhance PC services. METHODS: Discrete choice experiment surveys were administered to 747 individuals aged ≥ 60 years and 242 PC physicians in Singapore between December 2020 and August 2021. Participants were asked to choose between two hypothetical PC clinics and their current clinic. Latent class models were used to estimate the relative attribute importance (RAI) and to calculate the predicted uptake for enhanced PC services. RESULTS: Based on the attributes and levels used in this study, the out-of-pocket cost (RAI: 47%) and types of services offered (RAI: 25%) were the most important attributes for users while working hours (RAI: 28%) and patient load (RAI: 25%) were the most important for providers. For out-of-pocket visit costs ranging from Singapore dollars (S)$100 to S$5, users' predicted uptake for enhanced PC services ranged from 46 to 84%. For daily patient loads ranging from 60 to 20 patients, providers' predicted uptake ranged from 64 to 91%, assuming their income remains unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides timely insights for the development of strategies to support the government's new health care initiative (HealthierSG), which places PC at the center of Singapore's healthcare system. The ability to choose their preferred clinic, low out-of-pocket costs and types of services offered (for users), and reasonable working conditions (for providers) were the key factors for users and providers to participate in enhanced PC services.

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages. METHODS: First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment. RESULTS: In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

Physical strength and mental health mediate the association between pain and falls (recurrent and/or injurious) among community-dwelling older adults in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to understand if poor physical strength and depression mediate the association between pain and recurrent and/or injurious falls in a community of older adults. METHODS: Data was obtained from a nationally representative longitudinal cohort study conducted in Singapore, PHASE (Wave I and II), which collected information from community-dwelling older adults above 60 years old. A hurdle negative binomial regression and binomial logistic regression were used to assess the association between pain and recurrent falls, and pain and injurious falls respectively. A subsequent mediation analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Almost half of the participants (N = 1144, 39.7%) reported having either mild, moderate, or severe pain at baseline, 166 (5.4%) participants experienced injurious falls and 144 (4.7%) participants experienced recurrent falls at Wave II. After adjusting for covariates, the presence of pain significantly influenced recurrent (OR 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8, 4.4) and injurious falls (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.5). Mediation analyses demonstrated that poor physical strength and depression had a significant mediation effect between all pain characteristics on recurrent falls. Poor physical strength partially mediates the effects of pain and injurious falls as well. However, the mediating effect of poor physical strength and depression was not observed between other pain characteristics and injurious falls. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlighted differences in the underlying mechanisms between pain characteristics affecting recurrent and injurious falls. These insights will be useful for identifying patients most at risk for recurrent or injurious falls, and for tailoring future community-based fall intervention programmes.

A Causal View of the Role and Potential Limitations of Capitation in Promoting Whole Health System Performance.

For several decades, health systems in developed countries have faced rapidly rising healthcare costs without concomitant improvements in health outcomes. Fee for service (FFS) reimbursement mechanisms (RMs), where health systems are paid based on volume, contribute to this trend. In Singapore, the public health service is trying to curb rising healthcare costs by transitioning from a volume-based RM to a capitated payment for a population within a geographical catchment area. To provide insight into the implications of this transition, we developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to represent a causal hypothesis of the complex relationship between RM and health system performance. The CLD was developed with input from government policymakers, healthcare institution administrators, and healthcare providers. This work highlights that the causal relationships between government, provider organizations, and physicians involve numerous feedback loops that drive the mix of health services. The CLD clarifies that a FFS RM incentivizes high margin services irrespective of their health benefits. While capitation has the potential to mitigate this reinforcing phenomenon, it is not sufficient to promote service value. This suggests the need to establish robust mechanisms to govern common pool resources while minimizing adverse secondary effects.

Development of a real-world database for asthma and COPD: The SingHealth-Duke-NUS-GSK COPD and Asthma Real-World Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration.

PURPOSE: The SingHealth-Duke-GlaxoSmithKline COPD and Asthma Real-world Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration was formed to accelerate the use of Singaporean real-world evidence in research and clinical care. A centerpiece of the collaboration was to develop a near real-time database from clinical and operational data sources to inform healthcare decision making and research studies on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Our multidisciplinary team, including clinicians, epidemiologists, data scientists, medical informaticians and IT engineers, adopted the hybrid waterfall-agile project management methodology to develop the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM). The SCDM was developed within the organizational data warehouse. It pulls and maps data from various information systems using extract, transform and load (ETL) pipelines. Robust user testing and data verification was also performed to ensure that the business requirements were met and that the ETL pipelines were valid. RESULTS: The SCDM includes 199 data elements relevant to asthma and COPD. Data verification was performed and found the SCDM to be reliable. As of December 31, 2019, the SCDM contained 36,407 unique patients with asthma and COPD across the spectrum from primary to tertiary care in our healthcare system. The database updates weekly to add new data of existing patients and to include new patients who fulfil the inclusion criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The SCDM was systematically developed and tested to support the use RWD for clinical and health services research in asthma and COPD. This can serve as a platform to provide research and operational insights to improve the care delivered to our patients.

Impact of COVID-19 on perceived wellbeing, self-management and views of novel modalities of care among medically vulnerable patients in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 measures on wellbeing and self-management in medically vulnerable non-COVID patients and their views of novel modalities of care in Singapore. METHODS: Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and cancer were recruited from the SingHealth cluster and national cohort of older adults. Data on demographics, chronic conditions and perceived wellbeing were collected using questionnaire. We performed multivariable regression to examine factors associated with perceived wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were conducted to elicit patient's experience and thematically analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 91 patients participated. Male patients compared with female patients perceived a lower impact of the pandemic on subjective wellbeing. Patients with CVD compared to those having conditions other than CVD perceived a lower impact. Impacts of the pandemic were primarily described in relation to emotional distress and interference in maintaining self-care. Hampering of physical activity featured prominently, but most did not seek alternative ways to maintain activity. Despite general willingness to try novel care modalities, lack of physical interaction and communication difficulties were perceived as main barriers. DISCUSSION: Findings underline the need to alleviate emotional distress and develop adaptive strategies to empower patients to maintain wellbeing and self-care.

High-Suspicion Subcentimeter Thyroid Nodules: Cost Effectiveness of Active Surveillance versus Fine Needle Aspiration.

PURPOSE: To compare the cost-benefit of active surveillance (AS) against immediate fine needle aspiration (FNA) of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-benefit of 3 strategies from the point of discovery until death: (a) Surveillance of all nodules, (b) Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology, and (c) Surgery of nodules with positive cytology. The reference case was a 40-year-old woman with a sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodule. Transition probabilities, costs, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology dominated in the reference scenario and was cost-beneficial over Surveillance of all nodules, independent of the utility of AS. Surveillance of all nodules was cost-beneficial only at a life expectancy of <2.6 years or surveillance duration of <4 years. CONCLUSIONS: While current guidelines recommend AS of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter nodules, the results of this study suggest that immediate FNA (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) is more cost-beneficial than AS (Surveillance of all nodules). Patients with positive cytology on FNA may subsequently opt for AS (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) or surgery (Surgery of nodules with positive cytology) according to their level of comfort (ie, utility) with AS.

Association of quality-of-care indicators with asthma outcomes: A retrospective observational study for asthma care in Singapore.

Introduction: Asthma guidelines have advocated for the use of quality-of-care indicators (QCIs) in asthma management. To improve asthma care, it is important to identify effective QCIs that are actionable. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the presence of 3 QCIs: asthma education, Asthma Control Test (ACT) and spirometry testing on the time to severe exacerbation (TTSE). Method: Data collected from the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM), including asthma patients managed in 9 SingHealth polyclinics and Singapore General Hospital from January 2015 to December 2020, were analysed. Patients receiving Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) Steps 3-5 treatment, with at least 1 QCI recorded, and at least 1 severe exacerbation within 1 year before the first QCI record, were included. Data were analysed using multivariate Cox regression and quasi-Poisson regression models. Results: A total of 3849 patients in the registry fulfilled the criteria. Patients with records of asthma education or ACT assessment have a lower adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for TTSE (adjusted HR=0.88, P=0.023; adjusted HR=0.83, P<0.001). Adjusted HR associated with spirometry is higher (adjusted HR=1.22, P=0.026). No QCI was significantly associated with emergency department (ED)/inpatient visits. Only asthma education and ACT showed a decrease in the number of exacerbations for multivariate analysis (asthma education estimate: -0.181, P<0.001; ACT estimate: -0.169, P<0.001). No QCI was significant for the number of exacerbations associated with ED/inpatient visits. Conclusion: Our study suggests that the perfor-mance of asthma education and ACT was associated with increased TTSE and decreased number of exacerbations, underscoring the importance of ensuring quality care in clinical practice.

Developing a toolkit for implementing evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and diabetes in Cambodia: a descriptive case study.

BACKGROUND: In Cambodia, economic development accompanied by health reforms has led to a rapidly ageing population and an increasing incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases. National strategic plans recognize primary care health centres as the focal points of care for treating and managing chronic conditions, particularly hypertension and type 2 diabetes. However, health centres have limited experience in providing such services. This case study describes the process of developing a toolkit to facilitate the use of evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes at the health-centre level. METHODS: We developed and revised a preliminary toolkit based on the feedback received from key stakeholders. We gathered feedback through an iterative process of group and one-to-one consultations with representatives of the Ministry of Health, provincial health department, health centres and nongovernmental organizations between April 2019 and March 2021. RESULTS: A toolkit was developed and organized according to the core tasks required to treat and manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes patients. The main tools included patient identification and treatment cards, risk screening forms, a treatment flowchart, referral forms, and patient education material on risk factors and lifestyle recommendations on diet, exercise, and smoking cessation. The toolkit supplements existing guidelines by incorporating context-specific features, including drug availability and the types of medication and dosage guidelines recommended by the Ministry of Health. Referral forms can be extended to incorporate engagement with community health workers and patient education material adapted to the local context. All tools were translated into Khmer and can be modified as needed based on available resources and arrangements with other institutions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates how a toolkit can be developed through iterative engagement with relevant stakeholders individually and in groups to support the implementation of evidence-based guidelines. Such toolkits can help strengthen the function and capacity of the primary care system to provide care for noncommunicable diseases, serving as the first step towards developing a more comprehensive and sustainable health system in the context of population ageing and caring for patients with chronic diseases.

Negative and positive experiences of caregiving among family caregivers of older blunt trauma patients.

OBJECTIVES: Family caregivers play a fundamental role in the care of the older blunt trauma patient. We aim to identify risk factors for negative and positive experiences of caregiving among family caregivers. DESIGN: Prospective, nationwide, multi-center cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 110 family caregivers of Singaporeans aged≥55 admitted for unintentional blunt trauma with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) or New Injury Severity Score (NISS)≥10 were assessed for caregiving-related negative (disturbed schedule and poor health, lack of family support, lack of finances) and positive (esteem) experiences using the modified-Caregiver Reaction Assessment (m-CRA) three months post-injury. METHODS: The association between caregiver and patient factors, and the four m-CRA domains were evaluated via linear regression. RESULTS: Caregivers of retired patients and caregivers of functionally dependent patients (post-injury Barthel score <80) reported a worse experience in terms of disturbed schedule and poor health (ß-coefficient 0.42 [95% Confidence Interval 0.10, 0.75], p = .01; 0.77 [0.33, 1.21], p = .001), while male caregivers and caregivers who had more people in the household reported a better experience (-0.39 [-0.73, -0.06], p = .02; -0.16 [-0.25, -0.07], p = .001). Caregivers of male patients, retired patients, and patients living in lower socioeconomic housing were more likely to experience lack of family support (0.28, [0.03, -0.53], p = .03; 0.26, [0.01, 0.52], p = .05; 0.34, [0.05, -0.66], p = .02). In the context of lack of finances, caregivers of male patients and caregivers of functionally dependent patients reported higher financial strain (0.74 [0.31, 1.17], p = .001; 0.84 [0.26, 1.43], p = .01). Finally, caregivers of male patients reported higher caregiver esteem (0.36 [0.15, 0.57], p = .001). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Negative and positive experiences of caregiving among caregivers of older blunt trauma patients are associated with pre-injury disability and certain patient and caregiver demographics. These factors should be considered when planning the post-discharge support of older blunt trauma patients.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Versus Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation : A Decision Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is a potential alternative to oral anticoagulants in selected patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Compared with anticoagulants, LAAO decreases major bleeding risk, but there is uncertainty regarding the risk for ischemic stroke compared with anticoagulation. OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal strategy for stroke prevention conditional on a patient's individual risks for ischemic stroke and bleeding. DESIGN: Decision analysis with a Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Evidence from the published literature informed model inputs. TARGET POPULATION: Women and men with nonvalvular AF and without prior stroke. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical. INTERVENTION: LAAO versus warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end point was clinical benefit measured in quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The baseline risks for stroke and bleeding determined whether LAAO was preferred over anticoagulants in patients with AF. The combined risks favored LAAO for higher bleeding risk, but that benefit became less certain at higher stroke risks. For example, at a HAS-BLED score of 5, LAAO was favored in more than 80% of model simulations for CHA2DS2-VASc scores between 2 and 5. The probability of LAAO benefit in QALYs (>80%) at lower bleeding risks (HAS-BLED score of 0 to 1) was limited to patients with lower stroke risks (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2). Because DOACs carry lower bleeding risks than warfarin, the net benefit of LAAO is less certain than that of DOACs. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results were consistent using the ORBIT bleeding score instead of the HAS-BLED score, as well as alternative sources for LAAO clinical effectiveness data. LIMITATION: Clinical effectiveness data were drawn primarily from studies on the Watchman device. CONCLUSION: Although LAAO could be an alternative to anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with AF and high bleeding risk, the overall benefit from LAAO depends on the combination of stroke and bleeding risks in individual patients. These results suggest the need for a sufficiently low stroke risk for LAAO to be beneficial. The authors believe that these results could improve shared decision making when selecting patients for LAAO. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.