Stratification to Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer by Regimen and Transcriptional Signatures.

Response to neoadjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in rectal cancer has been associated with immune and stromal features that are captured by transcriptional signatures. However, how such associations perform across different chemoradiotherapy regimens and within individual consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) and how they affect survival remain unclear. In this study, gene expression and clinical data of pretreatment biopsies from nine cohorts of primary rectal tumors were combined (N = 826). Exploratory analyses were done with transcriptomic signatures for the endpoint of pathologic complete response (pCR), considering treatment regimen or CMS subtype. Relevant findings were tested for overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Immune and stromal signatures were strongly associated with pCR and lack of pCR, respectively, in RT and capecitabine (Cap)/5-fluorouracil (5FU)-treated patients (N = 387), in which the radiosensitivity signature (RSS) showed the strongest association. Upon addition of oxaliplatin (Ox; N = 123), stromal signatures switched direction and showed higher chances to achieve pCR than without Ox (p for interaction 0.02). Among Cap/5FU patients, most signatures performed similarly across CMS subtypes, except cytotoxic lymphocytes that were associated with pCR in CMS1 and CMS4 cases compared with other CMS subtypes (p for interaction 0.04). The only variables associated with survival were pCR and RSS. Although the frequency of pCR across different chemoradiation regimens is relatively similar, our data suggest that response rates may differ depending on the biological landscape of rectal cancer. Response to neoadjuvant RT in stroma-rich tumors may potentially be improved by the addition of Ox. RSS in preoperative biopsies provides predictive information for response specifically to neoadjuvant RT with 5FU. SIGNIFICANCE: Rectal cancers with stromal features may respond better to RT and 5FU/Cap with the addition of Ox. Within patients not treated with Ox, high levels of cytotoxic lymphocytes associate with response only in immune and stromal tumors. Our analyses provide biological insights about the outcome by different radiotherapy regimens in rectal cancer.

Image-based consensus molecular subtyping in rectal cancer biopsies and response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

The development of deep learning (DL) models to predict the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) from histopathology images (imCMS) is a promising and cost-effective strategy to support patient stratification. Here, we investigate whether imCMS calls generated from whole slide histopathology images (WSIs) of rectal cancer (RC) pre-treatment biopsies are associated with pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant long course chemoradiotherapy (LCRT) with single agent fluoropyrimidine. DL models were trained to classify WSIs of colorectal cancers stained with hematoxylin and eosin into one of the four CMS classes using a multi-centric dataset of resection and biopsy specimens (n = 1057 WSIs) with paired transcriptional data. Classifiers were tested on a held out RC biopsy cohort (ARISTOTLE) and correlated with pCR to LCRT in an independent dataset merging two RC cohorts (ARISTOTLE, n = 114 and SALZBURG, n = 55 patients). DL models predicted CMS with high classification performance in multiple comparative analyses. In the independent cohorts (ARISTOTLE, SALZBURG), cases with WSIs classified as imCMS1 had a significantly higher likelihood of achieving pCR (OR = 2.69, 95% CI 1.01-7.17, p = 0.048). Conversely, imCMS4 was associated with lack of pCR (OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.07-0.88, p = 0.031). Classification maps demonstrated pathologist-interpretable associations with high stromal content in imCMS4 cases, associated with poor outcome. No significant association was found in imCMS2 or imCMS3. imCMS classification of pre-treatment biopsies is a fast and inexpensive solution to identify patient groups that could benefit from neoadjuvant LCRT. The significant associations between imCMS1/imCMS4 with pCR suggest the existence of predictive morphological features that could enhance standard pathological assessment.

New role of fat-free mass in cancer risk linked with genetic predisposition.

Cancer risk is associated with the widely debated measure body mass index (BMI). Fat mass and fat-free mass measurements from bioelectrical impedance may further clarify this association. The UK Biobank is a rare resource in which bioelectrical impedance and BMI data was collected on ~ 500,000 individuals. Using this dataset, a comprehensive analysis using regression, principal component and genome-wide genetic association, provided multiple levels of evidence that increasing whole body fat (WBFM) and fat-free mass (WBFFM) are both associated with increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk, and colorectal cancer risk in men. WBFM was inversely associated with prostate cancer. We also identified rs615029[T] and rs1485995[G] as associated in independent analyses with both PMBC (p = 1.56E-17 and 1.78E-11) and WBFFM (p = 2.88E-08 and 8.24E-12), highlighting splice variants of the intriguing long non-coding RNA CUPID1 (LINC01488) as a potential link between PMBC risk and fat-free mass.

Improving radiotherapy in immunosuppressive microenvironments by targeting complement receptor C5aR1.

An immunosuppressive microenvironment causes poor tumor T cell infiltration and is associated with reduced patient overall survival in colorectal cancer. How to improve treatment responses in these tumors is still a challenge. Using an integrated screening approach to identify cancer-specific vulnerabilities, we identified complement receptor C5aR1 as a druggable target, which when inhibited improved radiotherapy, even in tumors displaying immunosuppressive features and poor CD8+ T cell infiltration. While C5aR1 is well-known for its role in the immune compartment, we found that C5aR1 is also robustly expressed on malignant epithelial cells, highlighting potential tumor cell-specific functions. C5aR1 targeting resulted in increased NF-κB-dependent apoptosis specifically in tumors and not normal tissues, indicating that, in malignant cells, C5aR1 primarily regulated cell fate. Collectively, these data revealed that increased complement gene expression is part of the stress response mounted by irradiated tumors and that targeting C5aR1 could improve radiotherapy, even in tumors displaying immunosuppressive features.

Evaluation of hypofractionated adaptive radiotherapy using the MR Linac in localised pancreatic cancer: protocol summary of the Emerald-Pancreas phase 1/expansion study located at Oxford University Hospital, UK.

INTRODUCTION: Online adaptive MR-guided radiotherapy allows for dose escalation to pancreatic cancer while sparing surrounding critical organs. We seek to evaluate the safety of delivering hypofractionated five-fraction, three-fraction and single-fraction MR-guided stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) to the pancreas. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a single-centre three-arm phase 1 non-randomised safety study. Patients with localised pancreatic cancer will receive either 50 Gy in five (biological equivalent dose (BED10)=100 Gy), 39 Gy in three (BED10=90 Gy) or 25 Gy in a single fraction (BED10=87.5 Gy) MR-guided daily online adaptive radiotherapy. Each fractionation regimen will be assessed as independent cohorts to determine tolerability, assessed continuously using Bayesian conjugate posterior beta distributions. The primary endpoint of the study is to establish the safety of five-fraction, three-fraction and single-fraction MR-guided hypofractionation SABR in localised pancreatic cancer by assessing dose-limiting toxicities. Secondary endpoints include overall survival, progression-free survival, local control rates, overall control rate, resection rates, long-term toxicities and freedom from second-line chemotherapy. This study plans to also explore imaging and immune biomarkers that may be useful to predict outcome and personalise treatment. The trial will recruit up to 60 patients with a safety run-in. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial is approved by the West Midlands-Black Country Research Ethics Committee 22/WM/0122. The results will be disseminated via conference presentations, peer-reviewed scientific journals and submission to regulatory authorities. The data collected for the study, including individual participant data, will be made available to researchers on request to the study team and with appropriate reason, via octo-enquiries@oncology.ox.ac.uk. The shared data will be deidentified participant data and will be available for 3 years following publication of the study. Data will be shared with investigator support, after approval of a proposal and with a signed data access agreement. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10557832.

Efficacy of early PET-CT directed switch to carboplatin and paclitaxel based definitive chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal cancer who have a poor early response to induction cisplatin and capecitabine in the UK: a multi-centre randomised controlled phase II trial.

Background: The utility of early metabolic response assessment to guide selection of the systemic component of definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) for oesophageal cancer is uncertain. Methods: In this multi-centre, randomised, open-label, phase II substudy of the radiotherapy dose-escalation SCOPE2 trial we evaluated the role of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) at day 14 of cycle 1 of three-weekly induction cis/cap (cisplatin (60 mg/m2)/capecitabine (625 mg/m2 days 1-21)) in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) or adenocarcinoma (OAC). Non-responders, who had a less than 35% reduction in maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) from pre-treatment baseline, were randomly assigned to continue cis/cap or switch to car/pac (carboplatin AUC 5/paclitaxel 175 mg/m2) for a further induction cycle, then concurrently with radiotherapy over 25 fractions. Responders continued cis/cap for the duration of treatment. All patients (including responders) were randomised to standard (50Gy) or high (60Gy) dose radiation as part of the main study. Primary endpoint for the substudy was treatment failure-free survival (TFFS) at week 24. The trial was registered with International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 97125464 and ClinicalTrials.govNCT02741856. Findings: This substudy was closed on 1st August 2021 by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee on the grounds of futility and possible harm. To this point from 22nd November 2016, 103 patients from 16 UK centres had participated in the PET-CT substudy; 63 (61.2%; 52/83 OSCC, 11/20 OAC) of whom were non-responders. Of these, 31 were randomised to car/pac and 32 to remain on cis/cap. All patients were followed up until at least 24 weeks, at which point in OSCC both TFFS (25/27 (92.6%) vs 17/25 (68%); p = 0.028) and overall survival (42.5 vs. 20.4 months, adjusted HR 0.36; p = 0.018) favoured cis/cap over car/pac. There was a trend towards worse survival in OSCC + OAC cis/cap responders (33.6 months; 95%CI 23.1-nr) vs. non-responders (42.5 (95%CI 27.0-nr) months; HR = 1.43; 95%CI 0.67-3.08; p = 0.35). Interpretation: In OSCC, early metabolic response assessment is not prognostic for TFFS or overall survival and should not be used to personalise systemic therapy in patients receiving dCRT. Funding: Cancer Research UK.

Machine learning for normal tissue complication probability prediction: Predictive power with versatility and easy implementation.

Background and purpose: A popular Normal tissue Complication (NTCP) model deployed to predict radiotherapy (RT) toxicity is the Lyman-Burman Kutcher (LKB) model of tissue complication. Despite the LKB model's popularity, it can suffer from numerical instability and considers only the generalized mean dose (GMD) to an organ. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can potentially offer superior predictive power of the LKB model, and with fewer drawbacks. Here we examine the numerical characteristics and predictive power of the LKB model and compare these with those of ML. Materials and methods: Both an LKB model and ML models were used to predict G2 Xerostomia on patients following RT for head and neck cancer, using the dose volume histogram of parotid glands as the input feature. Model speed, convergence characteristics and predictive power was evaluated on an independent training set. Results: We found that only global optimization algorithms could guarantee a convergent and predictive LKB model. At the same time our results showed that ML models remained unconditionally convergent and predictive, while staying robust to gradient descent optimization. ML models outperform LKB in Brier score and accuracy but compare to LKB in ROC-AUC. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that ML models can quantify NTCP better than or as well as LKB models, even for a toxicity that the LKB model is particularly well suited to predict. ML models can offer this performance while offering fundamental advantages in model convergence, speed, and flexibility, and so could offer an alternative to the LKB model that could potentially be used in clinical RT planning decisions.

FOCUS4 biomarker laboratories: from the benefits to the practical and logistical issues faced during 6 years of centralised testing.

AIMS: FOCUS4 was a phase II/III umbrella trial, recruiting patients with advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer, between 2014 and 2020. Molecular profiling of patients' formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumour blocks was undertaken at two centralised biomarker laboratories (Leeds and Cardiff), and the results fed directly to the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, and used for subsequent randomisation. Here the laboratories discuss their experiences. METHODS: Following successful tumour content assessment, blocks were sectioned for DNA extraction and immunohistochemistry (IHC). Pyrosequencing was initially used to determine tumour mutation status (KRAS, NRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA), then from 2018 onwards, next-generation sequencing was employed to allow the inclusion of TP53. Protein expression of MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2 and pTEN was determined by IHC. An interlaboratory comparison programme was initiated, allowing sample exchanges, to ensure continued assay robustness. RESULTS: 1291 tumour samples were successfully analysed. Assay failure rates were very low; 1.9%-3.3% for DNA sequencing and 0.9%-1.3% for IHC. Concordance rates of >98% were seen for the interlaboratory comparisons, where a result was obtained by both laboratories. CONCLUSIONS: Practical and logistical problems were identified, including poor sample quality and difficulties with sample anonymisation. The often last-minute receipt of a sample for testing and a lack of integration with National Health Service mutation analysis services were challenging. The laboratories benefitted from both pretrial validations and interlaboratory comparisons, resulting in robust assay development and provided confidence during the implementation of new sequencing technologies. We conclude that our centralised approach to biomarker testing in FOCUS4 was effective and successful.

Global colorectal cancer research, 2007-2021: Outputs and funding.

The purpose of this study was to provide an evidence base for colorectal cancer research activity that might influence policy, mainly at the national level. Improvements in healthcare delivery have lengthened life expectancy, but within a situation of increased cancer incidence. The disease burden of CRC has risen significantly, particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Research is key to its control and reduction, but few studies have delineated the volume and funding of global research on CRC. We identified research papers in the Web of Science (WoS) from 2007 to 2021, and determined the contributions of the leading countries, the research domains studied, and their sources of funding. We identified 62 716 papers, representing 5.7% of all cancer papers. This percentage was somewhat disproportionate to the disease burden (7.7% in 2015), especially in Eastern Europe. International collaboration increased over the time period in almost all countries except in China. Genetics, surgery and prognosis were the leading research domains. However, research on palliative care and quality-of-life in CRC was lacking. In Western Europe, the main funding source was the charity sector, particularly in the UK, but in most other countries government played the leading role, especially in China and the USA. There was little support from industry. Several Asian countries provided minimal contestable funding, which may have reduced the impact of their CRC research. Certain countries must perform more CRC research overall, especially in domains such as screening, palliative care and quality-of-life. The private-non-profit sector should be an alternative source of support.

Biological Misinterpretation of Transcriptional Signatures in Tumor Samples Can Unknowingly Undermine Mechanistic Understanding and Faithful Alignment with Preclinical Data.

PURPOSE: Precise mechanism-based gene expression signatures (GES) have been developed in appropriate in vitro and in vivo model systems, to identify important cancer-related signaling processes. However, some GESs originally developed to represent specific disease processes, primarily with an epithelial cell focus, are being applied to heterogeneous tumor samples where the expression of the genes in the signature may no longer be epithelial-specific. Therefore, unknowingly, even small changes in tumor stroma percentage can directly influence GESs, undermining the intended mechanistic signaling. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Using colorectal cancer as an exemplar, we deployed numerous orthogonal profiling methodologies, including laser capture microdissection, flow cytometry, bulk and multiregional biopsy clinical samples, single-cell RNA sequencing and finally spatial transcriptomics, to perform a comprehensive assessment of the potential for the most widely used GESs to be influenced, or confounded, by stromal content in tumor tissue. To complement this work, we generated a freely-available resource, ConfoundR; https://confoundr.qub.ac.uk/, that enables users to test the extent of stromal influence on an unlimited number of the genes/signatures simultaneously across colorectal, breast, pancreatic, ovarian and prostate cancer datasets. RESULTS: Findings presented here demonstrate the clear potential for misinterpretation of the meaning of GESs, due to widespread stromal influences, which in-turn can undermine faithful alignment between clinical samples and preclinical data/models, particularly cell lines and organoids, or tumor models not fully recapitulating the stromal and immune microenvironment. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to faithfully align preclinical models of disease using phenotypically-designed GESs must ensure that the signatures themselves remain representative of the same biology when applied to clinical samples.

Using oxygen dose histograms to quantify voxelised ultra-high dose rate (FLASH) effects in multiple radiation modalities.

Purpose.To introduce a methodology to predict tissue sparing effects in pulsed ultra-high dose rate radiation exposures which could be included in a dose-effect prediction system or treatment planning system and to illustrate it by using three published experiments.Methods and materials.The proposed system formalises the variability of oxygen levels as an oxygen dose histogram (ODH), which provides an instantaneous oxygen level at a delivered dose. The histogram concept alleviates the need for a mechanistic approach. At each given oxygen level the oxygen fixation concept is used to calculate the change in DNA-damage induction compared to the fully hypoxic case. Using the ODH concept it is possible to estimate the effect even in the case of multiple pulses, partial oxygen depletion, and spatial oxygen depletion. The system is illustrated by applying it to the seminal results by Town (Nat. 1967) on cell cultures and the pre-clinical experiment on cognitive effects by Montay-Gruelet al(2017Radiother. Oncol.124365-9).Results.The proposed system predicts that a possible FLASH-effect depends on the initial oxygenation level in tissue, the total dose delivered, pulse length and pulse repetition rate. The magnitude of the FLASH-effect is the result of a redundant system, in that it will have the same specific value for a different combination of these dependencies. The cell culture data are well represented, while a correlation between the pre-clinical experiments and the calculated values is highly significant (p < 0.01).Conclusions. A system based only on oxygen related effects is able to quantify most of the effects currently observed in FLASH-radiation.

Molecular Subtyping Resource: a user-friendly tool for rapid biological discovery from transcriptional data.

Generation of transcriptional data has dramatically increased in the past decade, driving the development of analytical algorithms that enable interrogation of the biology underpinning the profiled samples. However, these resources require users to have expertise in data wrangling and analytics, reducing opportunities for biological discovery by 'wet-lab' users with a limited programming skillset. Although commercial solutions exist, costs for software access can be prohibitive for academic research groups. To address these challenges, we have developed an open source and user-friendly data analysis platform for on-the-fly bioinformatic interrogation of transcriptional data derived from human or mouse tissue, called Molecular Subtyping Resource (MouSR). This internet-accessible analytical tool, https://mousr.qub.ac.uk/, enables users to easily interrogate their data using an intuitive 'point-and-click' interface, which includes a suite of molecular characterisation options including quality control, differential gene expression, gene set enrichment and microenvironmental cell population analyses from RNA sequencing. The MouSR online tool provides a unique freely available option for users to perform rapid transcriptomic analyses and comprehensive interrogation of the signalling underpinning transcriptional datasets, which alleviates a major bottleneck for biological discovery. This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Clinical Trial Endpoints in Metastatic Cancer: Using Individual Participant Data to Inform Future Trials Methodology.

Meta-analysis based on individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful methodology for synthesizing evidence by combining information drawn from multiple trials. Hitherto, its principal application has been in questions of clinical management, but an increasingly important use is in clarifying trials methodology, for instance in the selection of endpoints, as discussed in this review. In oncology, the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive (ARCAD) Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Database is a leader in the use of IPD-based meta-analysis in methodological research. The ARCAD database contains IPD from more than 38 000 patients enrolled in 46 studies and continues to collect phase III trial data. Here, we review the principal findings of the ARCAD project in respect of endpoint selection and examine their implications for cancer trials. Analysis of the database has confirmed that progression-free survival (PFS) is no longer a valid surrogate endpoint predictive of overall survival in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, PFS remains an endpoint of choice for most first-line trials in metastatic colorectal cancer and other solid tumors. Only substantial PFS effects are likely to translate into clinically meaningful benefits, and accordingly, we advocate an oncology research model designed to identify highly effective treatments in carefully defined patient groups. We also review the use of the ARCAD database in assessing clinical response including novel response metrics and prognostic markers. These studies demonstrate the value of IPD as a tool for methodological studies and provide a reference point for the expansion of this approach within clinical cancer research.

NRF2 Mediates Therapeutic Resistance to Chemoradiation in Colorectal Cancer through a Metabolic Switch.

Radiation resistance is a significant clinical problem in rectal cancer treatment, the mechanisms of which are poorly understood. NRF2 signalling is known to contribute to chemo/radioresistance in some cancers, but its role in therapeutic resistance in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unexplored. Using siRNA and CRiSPR/Cas9 isogenic CRC cell lines, we investigated the effect of the knockdown and upregulation of the NRF2 pathway on chemo-radiosensitivity. Poly (A) enriched RNA sequencing and geneset enrichment analysis (GSEA) were carried out on both sensitive and resistant cell models for mechanistic insights. Finally, a cohort of rectal patient samples was profiled to understand the clinical relevance of NRF2 signalling. Radioresistant cell lines were significantly radiosensitised by siRNA knockdown (SW1463, SER10 1.22, ANOVA p < 0.0001; HT55, SER10 1.17, ANOVA p < 0.01), but not the (already) radiosensitive HCT116. The constitutive activation of NRF2 via a CRISPR Cas9 NFE2L2 mutation, E79K, induced radioresistance in HCT116 (SER10 0.71, ANOVA, p < 0.0001). GSEA demonstrated significant opposing metabolic dependencies in NRF2 signalling, specifically, the downregulation of amino acid and protein synthesis with low levels of NRF2 and upregulation with over expression. In a clinical cohort of 127 rectal patients, using a validated mRNA signature, higher baseline NRF2 signalling was associated with incomplete responses to radiation higher final neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score (OR 1.34, 95% C.I. 1.01-1.80, LRT p-value = 0.023), where high NAR indicates poor radiation response and poor long-term prognosis. This is the first demonstration of NRF2-mediated radiation resistance in colorectal cancer. NRF2 appears to regulate crucial metabolic pathways, which could be exploited for therapeutic interventions.

Impact of geography on prognostic outcomes of 21,509 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer enrolled in clinical trials: an ARCAD database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Benchmarking international cancer survival differences is necessary to evaluate and improve healthcare systems. Our aim was to assess the potential regional differences in outcomes among patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) participating in international randomized clinical trials (RCTs). DESIGN: Countries were grouped into 11 regions according to the World Health Organization and the EUROCARE model. Meta-analyses based on individual patient data were used to synthesize data across studies and regions and to conduct comparisons for outcomes in a two-stage random-effects model after adjusting for age, sex, performance status, and time period. We used mCRC patients enrolled in the first-line RCTs from the ARCAD database, which provided enrolling country information. There were 21,509 patients in 27 RCTs included across the 11 regions. RESULTS: Main outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Compared with other regions, patients from the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland were proportionaly over-represented, older, with higher performance status, more frequently male, and more commonly not treated with biological therapies. Cohorts from central Europe and the United States (USA) had significantly longer OS compared with those from UK and Ireland (p = 0.0034 and p < 0.001, respectively), with median difference of 3-4 months. The survival deficits in the UK and Ireland cohorts were, at most, 15% at 1 year. No evidence of a regional disparity was observed for PFS. Among those treated without biological therapies, patients from the UK and Ireland had shorter OS than central Europe patients (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Significant international disparities in the OS of cohorts of mCRC patients enrolled in RCTs were found. Survival of mCRC patients included in RCTs was consistently lower in the UK and Ireland regions than in central Europe, southern Europe, and the USA, potentially attributed to greater overall population representation, delayed diagnosis, and reduced availability of therapies.

Molecular subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy in colorectal cancer is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone.

BACKGROUND: Patient selection for addition of anti-EGFR therapy to chemotherapy for patients with RAS and BRAF wildtype metastatic colorectal cancer can still be optimised. Here we investigate the effect of anti-EGFR therapy on survival in different consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) and stratified by primary tumour location. METHODS: Retrospective analyses, using the immunohistochemistry-based CMS classifier, were performed in the COIN (first-line oxaliplatin backbone with or without cetuximab) and PICCOLO trial (second-line irinotecan with or without panitumumab). Tumour tissue was available for 323 patients (20%) and 349 (41%), respectively. RESULTS: When using an irinotecan backbone, anti-EGFR therapy is effective in both CMS2/3 and CMS4 in left-sided primary tumours (progression-free survival (PFS): HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.75, P = 0.003 and HR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.36, P < 0.001, respectively) and in CMS4 right-sided tumours (PFS HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.71, P = 0.02). Efficacy using an oxaliplatin backbone was restricted to left-sided CMS2/3 tumours (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.96, P = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: The subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone. This may provide the possibility of subtype-specific treatment strategies for a more optimal use of anti-EGFR therapy.

Stromal composition predicts recurrence of early rectal cancer after local excision.

AIMS: After local excision of early rectal cancer, definitive lymph node status is not available. An alternative means for accurate assessment of recurrence risk is required to determine the most appropriate subsequent management. Currently used measures are suboptimal. We assess three measures of tumour stromal content to determine their predictive value after local excision in a well-characterised cohort of rectal cancer patients without prior radiotherapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 143 patients were included. Haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) sections were scanned for (i) deep neural network (DNN, a machine-learning algorithm) tumour segmentation into compartments including desmoplastic stroma and inflamed stroma; and (ii) digital assessment of tumour stromal fraction (TSR) and optical DNA ploidy analysis. 3' mRNA sequencing was performed to obtain gene expression data from which stromal and immune scores were calculated using the ESTIMATE method. Full results were available for 139 samples and compared with disease-free survival. All three methods were prognostic. Most strongly predictive was a DNN-determined ratio of desmoplastic to inflamed stroma >5.41 (P < 0.0001). A ratio of ESTIMATE stromal to immune score <1.19 was also predictive of disease-free survival (P = 0.00051), as was stromal fraction >36.5% (P = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The DNN-determined ratio of desmoplastic to inflamed ratio is a novel and powerful predictor of disease recurrence in locally excised early rectal cancer. It can be assessed on a single H&E section, so could be applied in routine clinical practice to improve the prognostic information available to patients and clinicians to inform the decision concerning further management.

Treatment breaks in first line treatment of advanced colorectal cancer: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent systemic anti-cancer therapy in patients with advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC) may improve quality of life without compromising overall survival (OS). We aimed to use individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) from multiple randomised controlled trials evaluating intermittent strategies to inform clinical practice. We also aimed to validate whether thrombocytosis as a predictive biomarker identified patients with significantly reduced OS receiving a complete treatment break. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An IPDMA of intermittent strategy impact on survival was undertaken, including all relevant trials in which data were available. Intermittent strategies were classified into two groups: a planned stopping of all therapy ("treatment break strategy"; 6 trials; 2,907 patients) or to the same treatment omitting oxaliplatin ("maintenance strategy"; 3 trials; 1,271 patients). The primary analysis sample was of patients successfully completing induction therapy. Additionally, a pre-planned analysis of the predictive value of thrombocytosis on survival under a continuous versus an intermittent strategy was undertaken. RESULTS: All trials had comparable inclusion criteria. The overall IPDMA of intermittent therapy versus continuous therapy demonstrated no detriment in OS (HR = 1.03 [95% CI 0.93-1.14]), whether from complete break (HR 1.04 [95% CI 0.87-1.26]) or maintenance strategies (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.87-1.13]). Thrombocytosis was confirmed as a marker of poor prognosis in aCRC, but did not predict for OS detriment from treatment break strategies (interaction HR = 0.97 [95% CI 0.66-1.40] compared to continuous therapy). CONCLUSION: The highest levels of evidence from this IPDMA indicate no detriment in survival for patients receiving an intermittent therapy strategy, either for maintenance or complete break strategies. Although, thrombocytosis is confirmed as a marker of poor prognosis, it is not predictive of poor outcome for patients treated with intermittent therapy. An intermittent chemotherapy strategy can therefore be applied irrespective of baseline platelet count and does not result in inferior OS compared to continuous chemotherapy.

Incorporating oxygenation levels in analytical DNA-damage models-quantifying the oxygen fixation mechanism.

Purpose.To develop a framework to include oxygenation effects in radiation therapy treatment planning which is valid for all modalities, energy spectra and oxygen levels. The framework is based on predicting the difference in DNA-damage resulting from ionising radiation at variable oxygenation levels.Methods.Oxygen fixation is treated as a statistical process in a simplified model of complex and simple damage. We show that a linear transformation of the microscopic oxygen fixation process allows to extend this to all energies and modalities, resulting in a relatively simple rational polynomial expression. The model is expanded such that it can be applied for polyenergetic beams. The methodology is validated using Microdosimetric Monte Carlo Damage Simulation code (MCDS). This serves as a bootstrap to determine relevant parameters in the analytical expression, as MCDS is shown to be extensively verified with published empirical data. Double-strand break induction as calculated by this methodology is compared to published proton experiments. Finally, an example is worked out where the oxygen enhancement ratio (OER) is calculated at different positions in a clinically relevant spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) dose deposition in water. This dose deposition is obtained using a general Monte Carlo code (FLUKA) to determine dose deposition and locate fluence spectra.Results.For all modalities (electrons, protons), the damage categorised as complex could be parameterised to within 0.3% of the value calculated using microdosimetric Monte Carlo. The proton beam implementation showed some variation in OERs which differed slightly depending on where the assessment was made; before the SOBP, mid-SOBP or at the distal edge. Environment oxygenation was seen to be the more important variable.Conclusions.An analytic expression calculating complex damage depending on modality, energy spectrum, and oxygenation levels was shown to be effective and can be readily incorporated in treatment planning software, to take into account the impact of variable oxygenation, forming a first step to an optimised treatment based on biological factors.