Association of child neurodevelopmental or behavioural problems with maternal unemployment in a population-based birth cohort.

PURPOSE: To estimate associations between suspected or diagnosed neurodevelopmental or behavioural problems in 7-year-old children and maternal unemployment at child age 7 and 10, in a Portuguese birth cohort. METHODS: We evaluated 5754 mothers and their children of the population-based birth cohort Generation XXI in Porto, Portugal. Data on suspected and diagnosed child neurodevelopmental and behavioural problems (exposures)-learning, attention and language problems, externalising behaviours, developmental delay, autism spectrum disorders, and other neurodevelopmental problems-were retrieved at 7 years of age by interviewing caregivers. Maternal employment status (outcome) was collected at the 7- and 10-year follow-up waves. Robust Poisson regression models were used to estimate associations. RESULTS: After adjustment for maternal and household characteristics, women were more likely to be unemployed at child age 10 if the child had, up to age 7, any of the following suspected problems: an autism spectrum disorder (PR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.07, 2.79), developmental delay (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.20, 2.06), externalising behaviours (PR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.11, 1.50) or learning problems (PR = 1.26; 95% CI 1.07, 1.48). When the exposure was restricted to clinically diagnosed disorders, the magnitude of associations remained similar but estimates were less precise. Associations with unemployment were stronger at child age 10 (prospective analyses), than at child age 7 (cross-sectional). CONCLUSION: Having a child with learning, developmental or behavioural problems, or an autism spectrum disorder up to age 7 was associated with maternal unemployment three years later, even in a less affluent European economy where the dual-earner family structure is often necessary to make ends meet.

Evaluation of Maternal Infection During Pregnancy and Childhood Leukemia Among Offspring in Denmark.

Importance: Maternal infection is common during pregnancy and is an important potential cause of fetal genetic and immunological abnormalities. Maternal infection has been reported to be associated with childhood leukemia in previous case-control or small cohort studies. Objective: To evaluate the association of maternal infection during pregnancy with childhood leukemia among offspring in a large study. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used data from 7 Danish national registries (including the Danish Medical Birth Register, the Danish National Patient Registry, the Danish National Cancer Registry, and others) for all live births in Denmark between 1978 and 2015. Swedish registry data for all live births between 1988 and 2014 were used to validate the findings for the Danish cohort. Data were analyzed from December 2019 to December 2021. Exposures: Maternal infection during pregnancy categorized by anatomic locations identified from the Danish National Patient Registry. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was any leukemia; secondary outcomes were acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Offspring childhood leukemia was identified in the Danish National Cancer Registry. Associations were first assessed in the whole cohort using Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. A sibling analysis was performed to account for unmeasured familial confounding. Results: This study included 2 222 797 children, 51.3% of whom were boys. During the approximately 27 million person-years of follow-up (mean [SD], 12.0 [4.6] years per person), 1307 children were diagnosed with leukemia (ALL, 1050; AML, 165; or other, 92). Children born to mothers with infection during pregnancy had a 35% increased risk of leukemia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.04-1.77]) compared with offspring of mothers without infection. Maternal genital and urinary tract infections were associated with a 142% and 65% increased risk of childhood leukemia, with HRs of 2.42 (95% CI, 1.50-3.92) and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.15-2.36), respectively. No association was observed for respiratory tract, digestive, or other infections. The sibling analysis showed comparable estimates to the whole-cohort analysis. The association patterns for ALL and AML were similar to that for any leukemia. No association was observed for maternal infection and brain tumors, lymphoma, or other childhood cancers. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of approximately 2.2 million children, maternal genitourinary tract infection during pregnancy was associated with childhood leukemia among offspring. If confirmed in future studies, our findings may have implications for understanding the etiology and developing preventive measures for childhood leukemia.

Diaphragmatic Point-of-Care Ultrasound in COVID-19 Patients in the Emergency Department-A Proof-of-Concept Study.

BACKGROUND: Lung Ultrasound Evaluation (LUS) is usefully applied in the Emergency Department (ED) to patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. Diaphragmatic Ultrasound (DUS) may provide additional insight into ventilatory function. This proof-of-concept study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of LUS and DUS in a third level ED during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Adult patients presenting with COVID-19 symptoms were eligible. After the physical examination, both LUS and DUS (i.e., diaphragmatic motion and thickness) were performed. All patients were followed after 30 days to determine their need for ventilation, admission, and/or a new ED evaluation after discharge. The diagnostic accuracies of diaphragm measurements in assessing the risk of the 30-day outcome were calculated as well as the measurements' usefulness. Bland-Altman plots were used for comparing bedside and off-line diaphragm measurements. RESULTS: 118 patients were enrolled. Median thickness and motion were 1.7 mm (iqr 0.4) and 1.8 cm (iqr 0.7), respectively, with a mean difference of 0.009 mm (95% CI -0.037-0.056 mm) and -0.051 cm (95% CI -0.108-0.006 cm), respectively. The 30-day outcome was associated with an increase in thickness (OR 5.84, 95% CI 0.96-35.4), and a lower motion (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.2-1.21). CONCLUSION: DUS seemed to be feasible and reliable in the ED in a population of patients presenting with symptoms related to COVID-19 infection.

Impacts of reopening strategies for COVID-19 epidemic: a modeling study in Piedmont region.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is a highly transmittable virus. Since the first person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Italy on February 21st, 2020, the number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 increased rapidly, mainly in northern Italian regions, including Piedmont. A strict lockdown was imposed on March 21st until May 4th when a gradual relaxation of the restrictions started. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to understand the spread of the diseases and to evaluate social measures to counteract, mitigate or delay the spread of the epidemic. METHODS: This study presents an extended version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SEIRS) model accounting for population age structure. The infectious population is divided into three sub-groups: (i) undetected infected individuals, (ii) quarantined infected individuals and (iii) hospitalized infected individuals. Moreover, the strength of the government restriction measures and the related population response to these are explicitly represented in the model. RESULTS: The proposed model allows us to investigate different scenarios of the COVID-19 spread in Piedmont and the implementation of different infection-control measures and testing approaches. The results show that the implemented control measures have proven effective in containing the epidemic, mitigating the potential dangerous impact of a large proportion of undetected cases. We also forecast the optimal combination of individual-level measures and community surveillance to contain the new wave of COVID-19 spread after the re-opening work and social activities. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is an effective tool useful to investigate different scenarios and to inform policy makers about the potential impact of different control strategies. This will be crucial in the upcoming months, when very critical decisions about easing control measures will need to be taken.

Factors associated with self-perceived knowledge of COVID-19: a study among women from the NINFEA birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: health literacy may contribute to the strategies to control the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as individuals need to acquire promptly new health information, understand the reasons behind recommendations, and adapt their behaviour accordingly. OBJECTIVES: to investigate sociodemographic and disease-related factors that can influence self-perceived knowledge (poor/medium vs high) about COVID-19 in women of the Italian NINFEA birth cohort. DESIGN: cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a web-based anonymous survey on COVID-19 was sent in April 2020 to women participating in the NINFEA cohort. A total of 3,129 women were included in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: using multiple weighted logistic regression models, self-perceived knowledge level was analysed in relation with the following variables: age, education level, family size, cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases until 7 April 2020 by province, presence of COVID-19-like symptoms, SARS-CoV-2 testing, and COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: the prevalence of self-perceived poor/medium knowledge was 57%. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, the odds ratio (OR) of self-perceived poor/medium COVID-19 knowledge level was increased for low/medium compared with high education level (OR 1.57; 95%CI 1.34-1.84), and decreased for SARS-CoV-2 testing (OR 0.25; 95%CI 0.16-0.39) and COVID-19 diagnosis (OR 0.20; 95%CI 0.07-0.60). There was no evidence of association between the other analysed variables and self-perceived knowledge level. CONCLUSIONS: the findings of this study suggest that low educational level is a determinant of low self-perceived knowledge on COVID-19 in middle-aged women.

Is Lactoferrin More Effective in Reducing Late-Onset Sepsis in Preterm Neonates Fed Formula Than in Those Receiving Mother's Own Milk? Secondary Analyses of Two Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Lactoferrin is the major antimicrobial protein in human milk. In our randomized controlled trial (RCT) of bovine lactoferrin (BLF) supplementation in preterm neonates, BLF reduced late-onset sepsis (LOS). Mother's own milk (MM) contains higher concentrations of lactoferrin than donor milk or formula, but whether BLF is more effective in infants who receive formula or donor milk is uncertain. AIM: To evaluate the incidence of LOS in preterm infants fed MM and in those fed formula and/or donor milk. STUDY DESIGN: This is a (A) post hoc subgroup analysis, in our RCT of BLF, of its effects in preterm infants fed MM, with or without formula, versus those fed formula and/or donor milk (no-MM) and (B) post hoc meta-analysis, in our RCT of BLF and in the ELFIN (Enteral Lactoferrin in Neonates) RCT, of the effect of BLF in subgroups not exclusively fed MM. RESULTS: (A) Of 472 infants in our RCT, 168 were randomized to placebo and 304 were randomized to BLF. Among MM infants, LOS occurred in 22/133 (16.5%) infants randomized to placebo and in 14/250 (5.6%) randomized to BLF (relative risk or risk ratio (RR): 0.34; relative risk reduction (RRR): 0.66; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for RR: 0.18-0.64; p < 0.0008). Among no-MM infants, LOS occurred in 7/35 (20.0%) randomized to placebo and in 2/54 (3.7%) randomized to BLF (RR: 0.19; RRR: 0.81; 95% CI for RR: 0.16-0.96; p = 0.026). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, there was no interaction between BLF treatment effect and type of feeding (p = 0.628). (B) In 1,891 infants not exclusively fed MM in our RCT of BLF and in the ELFIN RCT, BLF reduced the RR of LOS by 18% (RR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96; p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Adequately powered studies should address the hypothesis that BLF is more effective in infants fed formula or donor milk than those fed MM. Such studies should evaluate whether a specific threshold of total lactoferrin intake can be identified to protect such patients from LOS.

Survival of European adolescents and young adults diagnosed with cancer in 2000-07: population-based data from EUROCARE-5.

BACKGROUND: Data from EUROCARE have consistently shown lower survival for adolescents and young adults (AYAs; aged 15-24 years) than for children (0-14 years) for most cancers that affect both groups, and modest survival improvements up to 2000-02. AYAs have longer survival than that of adults for most cancers. We used the latest definition of AYAs (aged 15-39 years) and provided estimates of 5-year relative survival for European AYAs with cancer diagnosed in 2000-07, compared with children and adults (40-69 years) with cancer, and assessed survival improvements over time. METHODS: We analysed data from population-based cancer registries of 27 European countries participating in EUROCARE-5. We used the so-called complete method to estimate 5-year, population-weighted relative survival for 19 cancers affecting AYAs and children, and for 27 cancers affecting AYAs and adults. We assessed relative-survival differences between children versus AYAs, and between AYAs versus adults, using the Z test. We used the period approach to estimate 5-year relative survival over time for children and AYAs, and used a generalised linear model to model survival time trends (1999-2007) and to assess the significance of changes over time. FINDINGS: We analysed 56 505 cancer diagnoses in children, 312 483 in AYAs, and 3 567 383 in adults. For all cancers combined, survival improved over time for AYAs (from 79% [95% CI 78·1-80·5] in 1999-2002 to 82% [81·1-83·3] in 2005-07; p<0·0001) and children (from 76% [74·7-77·1] to 79% [77·2-79·4]; p<0·0001). Survival improved significantly in children and AYAs for acute lymphoid leukaemia (p<0·0001) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p<0·0001 in AYAs and p=0·023 in children). Survival improved significantly in AYAs only for CNS tumours (p=0·0046), astrocytomas (p=0·040), and malignant melanomas (p<0·0001). Survival remained significantly worse in AYAs than in children for eight important cancers: acute lymphoid leukaemias, acute myeloid leukaemias, Hodgkin's lymphomas, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, astrocytomas, Ewing's sarcomas, and rhabdomyosarcomas (p<0·0001 in all cases), and osteosarcomas (p=0·011). INTERPRETATION: Notwithstanding the encouraging results for some cancers, and overall, we showed poorer survival in AYAs than in children for the eight important cancers. Recent European initiatives to improve outcomes in AYAs might reduce the survival gap between children and AYAs, but this reduction can only be verified by future population-based studies. FUNDING: Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission.

Risk factors related to late metastases in 1,372 melanoma patients disease free more than 10 years.

In many centers, Stage I-II melanoma patients are considered "cured" after 10 years of disease-free survival and follow-up visits are interrupted. However, melanoma may relapse also later. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 1,372 Stage I-II melanoma patients who were disease-free 10 years after diagnosis. The aim of this study was to characterize patients who experienced a late recurrence and to compare them to those who remained disease-free to identify possible predictive factors. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the influence of different factors on the risk of recurrence. Seventy-seven patients out of 1,372 (5.6%) relapsed, 52 in regional sites and 25 in distant ones. The majority of patients (31 out of 52) experienced late recurrence in regional lymph nodes. Brain and lung were the most common site of single distant recurrence (24% each). Patients with multiple distant metastases showed a brain and lung involvement in, respectively, 40 and 48% of cases. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model analysis showed the independent role of age under 40 years, Breslow thickness >2 mm, and Clark Level IV/V in increasing the risk of Late Recurrence. These patients should be followed-up for longer than 10 years. The pattern of recurrence suggests that melanoma cells can be dormant preferentially in lymph nodes, brain and lung. A particular attention should be reserved to these anatomic sites during the follow-up after 10 years of disease-free.

Mortality and prognosis in patients with neurogenic orthostatic hypotension.

The prognosis of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH) has been poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate retrospectively comorbidities and causes of death in patients with NOH. Clinical information and causes of death were obtained for 104 patients (45 with multiple system atrophy, 9 with pure autonomic failure, 43 with Parkinson's disease, and 7 with other types of autonomic neuropathy) referred to the Autonomic Unit from 1996 to 2009. Cardiovascular diseases (hypertension, cardiac comorbidities, atrial fibrillation and heart failure) were present in 53 (51%) NOH patients. At the end of follow-up, 44 patients were deceased. Type of NOH was the main factor associated with mortality. The main causes of death were infectious/respiratory (54%) and cardiac (16%). In NOH patients, cardiovascular diseases are frequent, although mortality is mainly due to infectious and respiratory causes. Detection of cardiovascular diseases may be useful in the choice of anti-hypotensive treatments.

Clinical and functional prediction of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnoea.

INTRODUCTION: Upper airway inflammation and narrowing are characteristics of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). Inflammatory markers have been found to be increased in exhaled breath and induced sputum of patients with OSA. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate if the measurement of exhaled nitric oxide (F(ENO) ), as marker of airway inflammation, together with the forced mid-expiratory/mid-inspiratory airflow ratio (FEF(50) /FIF(50) ), as marker of upper airway narrowing, may help to predict OSA. METHODS: Two hundred one consecutive outpatients with suspected OSA were prospectively studied between January 2004 and December 2005. All patients underwent clinical examination, spirometry with measurement of FEF(50) /FIF(50) , maximum inspiratory pressure, arterial blood gas analysis, exhaled nitric oxide (F(ENO) ) and overnight polysomnography. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the effect of measured variables on the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI). Models were cross-validated by bootstrapping. RESULTS: Most of the patients were obese and had severe OSA. FEF(50) /FIF(50) , F(ENO) and an interaction term between smoking and F(ENO) contributed significantly to the predictive model for AHI, in addition to age, neck circumference, body mass index and carboxyhaemoglobin saturation. A nomogram to predict AHI was obtained, which converted the effect of each covariate in the model to a 0-100 scale. The nomogram showed a good predictive ability for AHI values between 25 and 64. CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of F(ENO) and of FEF(50) /FIF(50) improves the ability to predict OSA and may be used to identify patients who require a sleep study.

How the effect of maternal age on the risk of childhood leukemia changed over time in Sweden, 1960-2004.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the association between maternal age and risk of childhood leukemia found inconsistent results. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess whether there is an association between maternal age and risk of childhood leukemia and whether such an association is modified by maternal year of birth. METHODS: By linking nationwide Swedish registers, we analyzed leukemia incidence among all children between 1 and 5 years of age born between 1960 and 1999. We estimated incidence time trends by child year of birth (overall and stratified by maternal age) and incidence rate ratios (RRs) for maternal age groups stratified by maternal birth cohort. We tested the interaction between maternal age and child year of birth through the likelihood ratio test between nested Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We observed 1,562 leukemia cases. The overall annual percent change (APC) was 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.51 to 1.49]. Stratifying by maternal age classes, APCs decreased from 1.66 (0.68 to 2.65) for mothers or= 35 years at delivery. RRs for children born to the oldest with respect to the youngest mothers were 2.42 (1.31 to 4.67), 1.68 (1.00 to 2.72), 1.34 (0.87 to 2.01), and 0.87 (0.46-1.54) for mothers born in 1930-1934, 1940-1944, 1950-1954, and 1960-1964, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood leukemia risk increased with maternal age for mothers born in the past, whereas maternal age had no effect on this risk for mothers born more recently. This finding may explain the inconsistency of previous studies and suggests that leukemia risk may be related to an environmental factor to which women's exposure has changed over time.

Proteomic identification of heat shock protein 27 as a differentiation and prognostic marker in neuroblastoma but not in Ewing's sarcoma.

Neuroblastoma (NB) and Ewing's sarcoma (ES) cell lines were analysed by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) searching for new diagnostic/prognostic markers. Protein expression profiles displayed a high degree of similarity with the exception of marked heat shock protein (HSP) 27 and less marked HSP60 and HSP70 family up-modulations in NB cells. HSP27, which showed peculiar variability in different NB cell preparations, responded to all trans-retinoic acid treatment in NB cells but not in ES cells at gene and protein expression levels. Immunohistochemistry studies showed different behaviours of HSP27 and HSP70 expression in NB and ES biopsies. HSP27 was less expressed, whereas HSP70 was more expressed in the immature areas of NB. HSP27 expression showed positive and statistically significant correlation with favourable prognosis, and HSP27 expression also negatively correlated with increasing aggressiveness of histological type. In ES, both chaperones were expressed without characteristic patterns. Our results suggest that HSP27, after further clinical validations, could be used as a marker of neuronal differentiation in vivo for the assessment of the biological behaviour of NB and for the risk stratification of patients.

Avoided deaths as an indicator of improvement of childhood cancer treatment.

The aim of this study was to estimate how many deaths have been avoided because of the substantial improvement in childhood cancer survival both in Piedmont (2769 incident cases) and in Italy during 1970-1999. For each time period of diagnosis, the number of avoided deaths within 5 years after diagnosis was estimated as the difference between the observed number of deaths and the number of deaths that would have been observed if the patients had experienced the same mortality as in the reference period of 1970-1974. The national estimate of the number of avoided deaths was calculated by applying Piedmont cumulative mortality to the expected number of incident cases in Italy. An increase in the number of avoided deaths from 103 (95% confidence interval: 65-140) in 1975-1979 to 239 (95% confidence interval: 209-268) in 1995-1999 was observed in Piedmont. In Italy, the number of avoided deaths was 3880 in 1995-1999, with respect to 1970-1974. Results of these analyses provide an effective way to quantify the improvement in the quality of care for children with childhood cancer.

Expected number of childhood cancers in Italy from 2001 to 2015.

The total number of children with incident cancer in Italy has never been specifically estimated. Specialized population-based Childhood Cancer Registries have only been operating in Piedmont (CCRP) and in the Marche region, while general population cancer registries cover about 20% of the Italian population. The number of expected cases of childhood cancer (0-14 years) in Italy in the period 2001-2015 has been estimated using CCRP incidence rates and annual percentage changes. The expected number of cases of all cancer types were 8,132, 8,672 and 8,944 in the periods 2001-2005, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 respectively. These figures help evaluate the allocation of resources for the care of child cancer patients in Italy, and to estimate the number of cases expected to enter clinical trials.

Modeling mesothelioma risk associated with environmental asbestos exposure.

BACKGROUND: Environmental asbestos pollution can cause malignant mesothelioma, but few studies have involved dose-response analyses with detailed information on occupational, domestic, and environmental exposures. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we examined the spatial variation of mesothelioma risk in an area with high levels of asbestos pollution from an industrial plant, adjusting for occupational and domestic exposures. METHODS: This population-based case-control study included 103 incident cases of mesothelioma and 272 controls in 1987-1993 in the area around Casale Monferrato, Italy, where an important asbestos cement plant had been active for decades. Information collected included lifelong occupational and residential histories. Mesothelioma risk was estimated through logistic regression and a mixed additive-multiplicative model in which an additive scale was assumed for the risk associated with both residential distance from the plant and occupational exposures. The adjusted excess risk gradient by residential distance was modeled as an exponential decay with a threshold. RESULTS: Residents at the location of the asbestos cement factory had a relative risk for mesothelioma of 10.5 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.8-50.1), adjusted for occupational and domestic exposures. Risk decreased rapidly with increasing distance from the factory, but at 10-km the risk was still 60% of its value at the source. The relative risk for occupational exposure was 6.0 (95% CI, 2.9-13.0), but this increased to 27.5 (95% CI, 7.8-153.4) when adjusted for residential distance. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides strong evidence that asbestos pollution from an industrial source greatly increases mesothelioma risk. Furthermore, relative risks from occupational exposure were underestimated and were markedly increased when adjusted for residential distance.

[Incidence of malignant mesothelioma in Piedmont, 1990-2001]. / Incidenza del mesotelioma maligno in Piemonte, 1990-2001.

SETTING: age-, period-, and cohort-models allowed the prediction ofan increase in mortality from malignant mesotheliomas (MM) in Western Europe, expected to peak between 2015 and 2025 in different Countries, and around 2020 in Italy. Recently, however, a deceleration in the increase has been reported. OBJECTIVE: we updated to 31 december 2001 previous estimates ofMM incidence among residents in the Piedmont region (Italy) and assessed time-trends in incidence. DESIGN: the Registry of Malignant Mesotheliomas actively searches cases in hospital wards and pathology units' records since 1990; since 1996 the database of hospital admissions and discharges is also used. Cases are registered when eligible for inclusion in the National Mesothelioma Registry. RESULTS: the average yearly incidence of pleural MM, computed across four consecutive three-year calendar periods, from 1990-1992 to 1999-2001, increased in both sexes, for histologically confirmed as well as for all cases. No changes were observed in peritoneal MM incidence. CONCLUSIONS: the rise in incidence might be due to increased diagnostic awareness for MM. An analysis by birth-cohort, however, revealed a cohort-effect, therefore it is unlikely that diagnostic bias alone could explain the observed trend. Among men residing at diagnosis in the province of Turin, but not among women nor in both sexes outside Turin province, the increase in incidence has levelled off in the most recent calendar period; for them exposures stopped on average seven years earlier than those of residents in other areas of Piedmont.

Late deaths among five-year survivors of childhood cancer. A population-based study in Piedmont Region, Italy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze late mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer, in Piedmont (Italy), in terms of risk factors and causes of death. DESIGN AND METHODS: From 1967 to 1999, the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont recorded 3164 incident cases. Patients identified only by a death certificate (n = 59), lost to follow-up (n = 32), alive with a period of observation shorter than 5 years at the end of follow-up (n = 65) and records corresponding to a second malignant tumor during childhood (n = 9) were excluded from the analyses. RESULTS: Within 5 years after diagnosis, 1301 children died, and among the 1698 5- year survivors, 144 children subsequently died. Among 5-year survivors, cumulative mortality percentages increased from 5.1% (95% CI 4.0-6.2) at 10 years after diagnosis to 16.0% (12.2-19.8) at 35 years. Period of diagnosis (p = 0.006), age at diagnosis (p = 0.002), and tumor type (p = 0.003) were associated with late mortality. Most deaths were related to cancer recurrence (62.2%) and treatment-related sequelae (22.4%), including second malignant neoplasms, cardiac diseases and other late effects. Compared to the general population, children included in this study had a 9-fold increased risk of overall mortality, and experienced an absolute excess of 4.4 deaths per 1000 person-years. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: Among 5-year survivors, patients treated more recently (after 1979) had a statistically significant lower risk of late death than those treated earlier. However, long-term survivors still experienced higher mortality rates than those in the general population, and recurrence or progression of the primary tumor was the first cause of death.

Updating long-term childhood cancer survival trend with period and mixed analysis: good news from population-based estimates in Italy.

An empirical evaluation of long-term period survival analysis was performed using data from the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont, Italy. The aim was to update survival time trends and provide 25-year projections for children currently diagnosed with cancer. The observed survival experiences up to 15 years after diagnosis of five quinquennial cohorts (cohort analysis) were compared to the corresponding estimates obtained by period analysis. The two methods generally produced very similar findings, although period analysis estimates were slightly lower than those obtained from cohort analysis. We then used mixed analysis to assess time trends in long-term survival. This showed that the probability of surviving 25 years after a cancer in childhood has more than doubled compared to cohort analysis estimates from patients diagnosed more than 25 years ago (73% vs. 32%), providing further evidence of an ongoing improvement in prognosis.