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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282093.].
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Morphometric allometry, the effect of size on morphological variation, has been of great interest for evolutionary biologist and is currently used in fields such as wildlife ecology to inform management and conservation. We assessed American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) morphological static allometry across the Greater Everglades ecosystem in South Florida, United States using a robust dataset (~ 22 years) and investigated effects of sex, habitat, and sampling area on morphological relationships. Regression models showed very strong evidence of a linear relationship between variables explaining equal to or above 92% of the variation in the data. Most trait-size relationships (8 out of 11 assessed) showed hyperallometry (positive allometry) with slope deviations from isometry between 0.1 and 0.2 units while the other three relationships were isometric. Sampling area, type of habitat, and in a lesser extent sex influenced allometric coefficients (slope and intercept) across several relationships, likely as result of differing landscapes and ecosystem dynamic alterations and sexual dimorphism. We discuss our findings in terms of the biology of the species as well as the usefulness of our results in the context of ecosystem restoration and conservation of the species. Finally, we provide recommendations when using trait-length relationships to infer population nutritional-health condition and demographics.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos , Ecosistema , Animales , Animales Salvajes , Evolución Biológica , Florida , Estados Unidos , Masculino , FemeninoRESUMEN
Body condition is used as an indicator of the degree of body fat in an animal but evidence of its actual relationship with health diagnostics (e.g., blood parameters) is usually lacking across species. In American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), body condition has been used as a performance metric within the Greater Everglades ecosystem to provide insight on hydrological and landscape changes on alligator populations. However, there is no clear evidence that spatial body condition changes relate to different health conditions (low food intake vs sickness) and whether this link can be made when relating body condition values with blood parameters. We assessed the relationship between alligator body condition and 36 hematological and biochemistry (blood) parameters in four areas across two physiographic regions (Everglades and Big Cypress) of the Greater Everglades (sample size = 120). We found very strong to weak evidence of linearity between 7 (Big Cypress) and 19 (Everglades) blood parameters and relative condition factor index, from which cholesterol (38%) and uric acid (41%) for the former and phosphorus (up to 52%) and cholesterol (up to 45%) for the latter (mean absolute error MAE = 0.18 each) were the predictors that individually explain most of the body condition variation. The best combination of blood parameters for the Everglades were cholesterol, phosphorus, osmolality, total protein, albumin, alpha 2, beta, and gamma globulins, and corticosterone accounting for 40% (37 ± 21%, MAE = 0.16) of the variation found in alligator body condition for this region. We found better predictability power in models when analyzed at smaller rather than larger scales showing a potential habitat effect on the body condition-blood parameters relationship. Overall, Everglades alligators in poorer condition are likely dehydrated or have an inadequate diet and the spatial differences found between physiographic regions suggest that these areas differ in prey availability/quality.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos , Animales , Florida , Ecosistema , Estado de Salud , Fósforo , ColesterolRESUMEN
The potential for animals to modify spatial patterns of nutrient limitation for autotrophs and habitat availability for other members of their communities is increasingly recognized. However, net trophic effects of consumers acting as ecosystem engineers remain poorly known. The American Alligator Alligator mississippiensis is an abundant predator capable of dramatic modifications of physical habitat through the creation and maintenance of pond-like basins, but its role in influencing community structure and nutrient dynamics is less appreciated. We investigated if alligators engineer differences in nutrient availability and changes to community structure by their creation of 'alligator ponds' compared to the surrounding phosphorus (P)-limited oligotrophic marsh. We used a halo sampling design of three distinct habitats extending outward from 10 active alligator ponds across a hydrological gradient in the Everglades, USA. We performed nutrient analysis on basal food-web resources and quantitative community analyses, and stoichiometric analyses on plants and animals. Our findings demonstrate that alligators act as ecosystem engineers and enhance food-web heterogeneity by increasing nutrient availability, manipulating physical structure and altering algal, plant and animal communities. Flocculent detritus, an unconsolidated layer of particulate organic matter and soil, showed strong patterns of P enrichment in ponds. Higher P availability in alligator ponds also resulted in bottom-up trophic transfer of nutrients as evidenced by higher growth rates (lower N:P) for plants and aquatic consumers. Edge habitats surrounding alligator ponds contained the most diverse communities of invertebrates and plants, but low total abundance of fishes, likely driven by high densities of emergent macrophytes. Pond communities exhibited higher abundance of fish compared to edge habitat and were dominated by compositions of small invertebrates that track high nutrient availability in the water column. Marshes contained high numbers of animals that are closely tied to periphyton mats, which were absent from other habitats. Alligator-engineered habitats are ecologically important by providing nutrient-enriched 'hotspots' in an oligotrophic system, habitat heterogeneity to marshes, and refuges for other fauna during seasonal disturbances. This work adds to growing evidence that efforts to model community dynamics should routinely consider animal-mediated bottom-up processes like ecosystem engineering.
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Ecosistema , Humedales , Animales , Cadena Alimentaria , Invertebrados , Plantas , Peces , NutrientesRESUMEN
Body condition is a measure of the health and fitness of an organism represented by available energy stores, typically fat. Direct measurements of fat are difficult to obtain non-invasively, thus body condition is usually estimated by calculating body condition indices (BCIs) using mass and length. The utility of BCIs is contingent on the relationship of BCIs and fat, thereby validation studies should be performed to select the best performing BCI before application in ecological investigations. We evaluated 11 BCIs in 883 Argentine black and white tegus (Salvator merianae) removed from their non-native range in South Florida, United States. Because the length-mass relationship in tegus is allometric, a segmented linear regression model was fit to the relationship between mass and length to define size classes. We evaluated percent, residual, and scaled fat and determined percent fat was the best measure of fat, because it was the least-associated with snout-vent length (SVL). We evaluated performance of BCIs with the full dataset and within size classes and identified Fulton's K as the best performing BCI for our sampled population, explaining up to 19% of the variation in fat content. Overall, we found that BCIs: 1) maintained relatively weak relationships with measures of fat and 2) splitting data into size classes reduced the strength of the relationship (i.e., bias) between percent fat and SVL but did not improve the performance of BCIs. We postulate that the weak performance of BCIs in our dataset was likely due to the weak association of fat with SVL, the body plan and life-history traits of tegus, and potentially inadequate accounting of available energy resources. We caution against assuming that BCIs are strong indicators of body condition across species and suggest that validation studies be implemented, or that alternative or complimentary measures of health or fitness should be considered.
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Lagartos , Animales , FloridaRESUMEN
Land use disrupts the ecosystem functioning of freshwater systems and significantly affects trophic state. Consequently, biodiversity is severely affected by changes to the ecosystem. Microbial eukaryotes (i.e., protists) play an essential role in ecosystem functioning, contributing to biogeochemical processes, nutrient cycling, and food webs. Protist composition is a useful biological quality parameter for monitoring aquatic ecosystems and determining aquatic system health. In this study, we investigated the effects of land usage and trophic state on the communities of microbial eukaryotes in the New River (Belize, C.A.). Land use and trophic state both significantly affected protist community compositions, with impacted and mesotrophic sampled sites having higher biodiversity when compared to other sites. Autotrophic organisms dominated indirectly impacted and eutrophic sites, while impacted and mesotrophic sites had proportional ratios of autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms. Our study highlights the significant effects of trophic gradients on protistan community composition, even at the local scales.
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The American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) is considered a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List across its range and classified as locally threatened in several countries. There is a lack of knowledge involving hematological and physiological parameters in American crocodile populations, limiting our understanding of what are considered "normal" blood analyte results for the species and how to link them with health assessments. In this study, we analyzed 40 hematological and biochemical parameters and estimated reference intervals (RIs) for 35 of them based on 436 clinically healthy wild American crocodiles caught in South Florida between 2015 and 2021. Crocodiles were captured across three areas with different levels of human influence [low = Everglades National Park (ENP), medium = Biscayne Bay Estuary (BBE), and high = Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant (TP)]. There was very strong-to-strong evidence for an effect of where animals were caught on five analytes: basophils %, phosphorus, proportion of (pr) alpha-2 globulins, absolute count (abs) of gamma globulins, and corticosterone, so no reference values were estimated but general statistics are presented and discussed. From the remaining analytes, we found no evidence that sex or size class had an effect on red blood cell (RBC), azurophils and monocytes abs, triglycerides, and albumin abs. However, we did find moderate-to-strong evidence that sex influenced azurophils % and size class influenced white blood cell (WBC), heterophils %, monocytes %, basophils abs, creatine phosphokinase (CPK), potassium, glucose, bile acids, alpha-1 globulin abs, and alpha-2 globulin pr and abs. Finally, there was strong evidence that both sex and size class influenced PCV, lymphocytes % and abs, eosinophils % and abs, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), calcium, sodium, chloride, total protein, albumin/globulin (A/G) ratio, albumin pr, alpha-1 globulin, and beta globulin abs. Intraspecific analysis showed that size is the variable that most influenced analytes explaining up to 29% of the variation, which relates to our findings based on intraindividual analysis. We compared our results with blood parameters reported for conspecifics as well as closely related species and discussed implication of those results for clinical diagnosis and American crocodile conservation.
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We calculated reference intervals for 48 blood parameters from 120 wild American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Florida, US. Although previously reported by others, this study includes additional parameters not yet reported in wild populations. Most previously reported blood parameter values were similar to ours and fell within our reference intervals.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos , Hematología , Animales , Florida , Valores de ReferenciaRESUMEN
The federally threatened American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) is a flagship species and ecological indicator of hydrologic restoration in the Florida Everglades. We conducted a long-term capture-recapture study on the South Florida population of American crocodiles from 1978 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of restoration efforts to more historic hydrologic conditions. The study produced 10,040 crocodile capture events of 9,865 individuals and more than 90% of captures were of hatchlings. Body condition and growth rates of crocodiles were highly age-structured with younger crocodiles presenting with the poorest body condition and highest growth rates. Mean crocodile body condition in this study was 2.14±0.35 SD across the South Florida population. Crocodiles exposed to hypersaline conditions (> 40 psu) during the dry season maintained lower body condition scores and reduced growth rate by 13% after one year, by 24% after five years, and by 29% after ten years. Estimated hatchling survival for the South Florida population was 25% increasing with ontogeny and reaching near 90% survival at year six. Hatchling survival was 34% in NE Florida Bay relative to a 69% hatchling survival at Crocodile Lake National Wildlife Refuge and 53% in Flamingo area of Everglades National Park. Hypersaline conditions negatively affected survival, growth and body condition and was most pronounced in NE Florida Bay, where the hydrologic conditions have been most disturbed. The American crocodile, a long-lived animal, with relatively slow growth rate provides an excellent model system to measure the effects of altered hydropatterns in the Everglades landscape. These results illustrate the need for continued long-term monitoring to assess system-wide restoration outcomes and inform resource managers.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos/fisiología , Biomasa , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Humedales , Caimanes y Cocodrilos/crecimiento & desarrollo , Animales , Tamaño Corporal , Fertilidad , FloridaRESUMEN
Large-bodied predators are well represented among the world's threatened and endangered species. A significant body of literature shows that in terrestrial and marine ecosystems large predators can play important roles in ecosystem structure and functioning. By contrast, the ecological roles and importance of large predators within freshwater ecosystems are poorly understood, constraining the design and implementation of optimal conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems. Conservationists and environmentalists frequently promulgate ecological roles that crocodylians are assumed to fulfil, but often with limited evidence supporting those claims. Here, we review the available information on the ecological importance of crocodylians, a widely distributed group of predominantly freshwater-dwelling, large-bodied predators. We synthesise information regarding the role of crocodylians under five criteria within the context of modern ecological concepts: as indicators of ecological health, as ecosystem engineers, apex predators, keystone species, and as contributors to nutrient and energy translocation across ecosystems. Some crocodylians play a role as indicators of ecosystem health, but this is largely untested across the order Crocodylia. By contrast, the role of crocodylian activities in ecosystem engineering is largely anecdotal, and information supporting their assumed role as apex predators is currently limited to only a few species. Whether crocodylians contribute significantly to nutrient and energy translocation through cross-ecosystem movements is unknown. We conclude that most claims regarding the importance of crocodylians as apex predators, keystone species, ecosystem engineers, and as contributors to nutrient and energy translocation across ecosystems are mostly unsubstantiated speculation, drawn from anecdotal observations made during research carried out primarily for other purposes. There is a paucity of biological research targeted directly at: understanding population dynamics; trophic interactions within their ecological communities; and quantifying the short- and long-term ecological impacts of crocodylian population declines, extirpations, and recoveries. Conservation practices ideally need evidence-based planning, decision making and justification. Addressing the knowledge gaps identified here will be important for achieving effective conservation of crocodylians.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos/fisiología , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ecosistema , Animales , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Agua Dulce , Investigación/tendenciasRESUMEN
Globally temperature of marine environments is on the rise and temperature plays an important role in the life-history of reptiles. In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature and average date of hatching for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) over a 37-year period at two nesting sites, Everglades National Park and Florida Power and Light Turkey Point Power Plant site in southern Florida. Our results indicate that hatch dates are shifting 1.5 days earlier every two years and at half that rate for the Turkey Point site, and with every 1 °C degree increase in temperature, hatching occurs about 10 days earlier in the Everglades and 6 days earlier at Turkey Point. Our results on shifting hatch dates for American crocodiles provide further details about the impacts of temperature change on crocodile life history and suggest that increased temperature may affect their phenology.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos/fisiología , Comportamiento de Nidificación , Temperatura , Animales , Florida , ReproducciónRESUMEN
Several data loggers deployed to monitor temperature and humidity of Crocodylus acutus (American crocodile) nests in South Florida could not be located after hatching. One badly damaged data logger was retrieved, providing insight into the possible fate of the others. Using a taphonomic approach, we identified numerous indentations, consistent with crocodylian bite marks, and inconsistent with potential mammalian or squamate bites. It seems most likely that the data logger was damaged by the nesting C. acutus rather than during attempted nest predation. Estimated bite forces for reproductive age, female C. acutus exceed the predicted material properties of the data logger's housing, suggesting that the bites were exploratory in nature. We suggest that data loggers be removed prior to hatching or permit remote data storage.
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Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genomewide adaptation on short "ecological" timescales. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behaviour and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic data sets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures has driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often-overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.
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Adaptación Fisiológica , Boidae/genética , Clima , Especies Introducidas , Animales , Boidae/fisiología , Evolución Molecular , Florida , Genoma , Selección GenéticaRESUMEN
Identification of the origin of parasites of nonindigenous species (NIS) can be complex. NIS may introduce parasites from their native range and acquire parasites from within their invaded range. Determination of whether parasites are non-native or native can be complicated when parasite genera occur within both the NIS' native range and its introduced range. We explored potential for spillover and spillback of lung parasites infecting Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus) in their invasive range (Florida). We collected 498 indigenous snakes of 26 species and 805 Burmese pythons during 2004-2016 and examined them for lung parasites. We used morphology to identify three genera of pentastome parasites, Raillietiella, a cosmopolitan form, and Porocephalus and Kiricephalus, both New World forms. We sequenced these parasites at one mitochondrial and one nuclear locus and showed that each genus is represented by a single species, R. orientalis, P. crotali, and K. coarctatus. Pythons are host to R. orientalis and P. crotali, but not K. coarctatus; native snakes are host to all three species. Sequence data show that pythons introduced R. orientalis to North America, where this parasite now infects native snakes. Additionally, our data suggest that pythons are competent hosts to P. crotali, a widespread parasite native to North and South America that was previously hypothesized to infect only viperid snakes. Our results indicate invasive Burmese pythons have affected parasite-host dynamics of native snakes in ways that are consistent with parasite spillover and demonstrate the potential for indirect effects during invasions. Additionally, we show that pythons have acquired a parasite native to their introduced range, which is the initial condition necessary for parasite spillback.
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Ecological associations where one species enhances habitat for another nearby species (facilitations) shape fundamental community dynamics and can promote niche expansion, thereby influencing how and where species persist and coexist. For the many breeding birds facing high nest-predation pressure, enemy-free space can be gained by nesting near more formidable animals for physical protection. While the benefits to protected species seem well documented, very few studies have explored whether and how protector species are affected by nest protection associations. Long-legged wading birds (Pelecaniformes and Ciconiiformes) actively choose nesting sites above resident American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), apparently to take advantage of the protection from mammalian nest predators that alligator presence offers. Previous research has shown that wading bird nesting colonies could provide substantial food for alligators in the form of dropped chicks. We compared alligator body condition in similar habitat with and without wading bird nesting colonies present. Alligator morphometric body condition indices were significantly higher in colony than in non-colony locations, an effect that was statistically independent of a range of environmental variables. Since colonially nesting birds and crocodilians co-occur in many tropical and subtropical wetlands, our results highlight a potentially widespread keystone process between two ecologically important species-groups. These findings suggest the interaction is highly beneficial for both groups of actors, and illustrate how selective pressures may have acted to form and reinforce a strongly positive ecological interaction.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos/fisiología , Aves/fisiología , Comportamiento de Nidificación/fisiología , Animales , Cruzamiento , Ecología , Ecosistema , Dinámica Poblacional , Conducta Predatoria/fisiología , Reproducción/fisiologíaRESUMEN
Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.
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Caimanes y Cocodrilos , Dieta , Ecosistema , Fenotipo , Conducta Predatoria , Animales , Carbono , Ecología , Cadena Alimentaria , Modelos BiológicosRESUMEN
It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.
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Animales Salvajes , Cambio Climático , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Humedales , Animales , Ecosistema , Florida , Predicción , Modelos Teóricos , Dinámica Poblacional , Lluvia , TemperaturaRESUMEN
Navigational ability is a critical component of an animal's spatial ecology and may influence the invasive potential of species. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) are apex predators invasive to South Florida. We tracked the movements of 12 adult Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park, six of which were translocated 21-36 km from their capture locations. Translocated snakes oriented movement homeward relative to the capture location, and five of six snakes returned to within 5 km of the original capture location. Translocated snakes moved straighter and faster than control snakes and displayed movement path structure indicative of oriented movement. This study provides evidence that Burmese pythons have navigational map and compass senses and has implications for predictions of spatial spread and impacts as well as our understanding of reptile cognitive abilities.
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Boidae/fisiología , Fenómenos de Retorno al Lugar Habitual , Especies Introducidas , Orientación , Animales , Florida , TelemetríaRESUMEN
The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.
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Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Animales , Bahías , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ciervos , Florida , Puma , Rapaces , Roedores , GorrionesRESUMEN
Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 ) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.