Importance of ventilation and occupancy to Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission rates in congregate settings.

BACKGROUND: Ventilation rates are a key determinant of the transmission rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and other airborne infections. Targeting infection prevention and control (IPC) interventions at locations where ventilation rates are low and occupancy high could be a highly effective intervention strategy. Despite this, few data are available on ventilation rates and occupancy in congregate locations in high tuberculosis burden settings. METHODS: We collected carbon dioxide concentration and occupancy data in congregate locations and public transport on 88 occasions, in Cape Town, South Africa. For each location, we estimated ventilation rates and the relative rate of infection, accounting for ventilation rates and occupancy. RESULTS: We show that the estimated potential transmission rate in congregate settings and public transport varies greatly between different settings. Overall, in the community we studied, estimated infection risk was higher in minibus taxis and trains than in salons, bars, and shops. Despite good levels of ventilation, infection risk could be high in the clinic due to high occupancy levels. CONCLUSION: Public transport in particular may be promising targets for infection prevention and control interventions in this setting, both to reduce Mtb transmission, but also to reduce the transmission of other airborne pathogens such as measles and SARS-CoV-2.

Tuberculosis from transmission in clinics in high HIV settings may be far higher than contact data suggest.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, it is generally estimated that only 0.5-0.6% of people's contacts occur in clinics. Both people with infectious tuberculosis and people with increased susceptibility to disease progression may spend more time in clinics, however, increasing the importance of clinic-based transmission to overall disease incidence.METHODS: We developed an illustrative mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in clinics and other settings. We assumed that 1% of contact time occurs in clinics. We varied the ratio of clinic contact time of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive people compared to HIV-negative people, and of people with infectious TB compared to people without TB, while keeping the overall proportion of contact time occurring in clinics, and each person's total contact time, constant.RESULTS: With clinic contact rates respectively 10 and 5 times higher in HIV-positive people and people with TB, 10.7% (plausible range 8.5-13.4%) of TB resulted from transmission in clinics. With contact rates in HIV-positive people and people with TB respectively 5 and 2 times higher, 5.3% (plausible range 4.3-6.3%) of all TB was due to transmission in clinics.CONCLUSION: The small amount of contact time that generally occurs in clinics may greatly underestimate their contribution to TB disease in high TB-HIV burden settings.

History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation.

Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and therefore accounting for its dependence on the model's input values. The method proposed is applied to a real complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus in Uganda with 22 inputs and 18 outputs, and is found to increase the efficiency of history matching, requiring 70% of the time and 43% fewer simulator evaluations compared with a previous variant of the method. The insight gained into the structure of the human immunodeficiency virus model, and the constraints placed on it, are then discussed.

Coverage of clinic-based TB screening in South Africa may be low in key risk groups.

The South African Ministry of Health has proposed screening all clinic attendees for tuberculosis (TB). Amongst other factors, male sex and bar attendance are associated with higher TB risk. We show that 45% of adults surveyed in Western Cape attended a clinic within 6 months, and therefore potentially a relatively high proportion of the population could be reached through clinic-based screening. However, fewer than 20% of all men aged 18-25 years, or men aged 26-45 who attend bars, attended a clinic. The population-level impact of clinic-based screening may be reduced by low coverage among key risk groups.

Le Ministère de la Santé d'Afrique du Sud a proposé de dépister la tuberculose (TB) chez tous les patients visitant un centre de santé. Parmi d'autres facteurs, le sexe masculin et la fréquentation des bars sont associés à un risque plus élevé de TB. Nous montrons que 45% des adultes dépistés dans la province du Cap Ouest s'étaient rendus dans un centre de santé au cours des 6 derniers mois et c'est pourquoi une proportion relativement élevée de la population pourrait être atteinte à travers un dépistage en centre de santé. Cependant, moins de 20% de tous les hommes âgés de 18­25 ans, ou des hommes âgés de 26­45 ans qui fréquentent les bars, se rendent dans un centre de santé. L'impact sur la population de ce type de dépistage pourrait donc être réduit par une faible couverture parmi les groupes à risque majeur.

El Ministerio de Salud de Suráfrica propuso una detección sistemática de la tuberculosis (TB) a todas las personas que acudían a los consultorios. Entre los factores asociados con un mayor riesgo de padecer TB están el sexo masculino y la frecuentación de bares. El presente artículo pone de manifiesto que 45% de los adultos encuestados en la Ciudad del Cabo había acudido a un establecimiento de salud en los últimos 6 meses, por lo cual se pudo llegar a una proporción relativamente alta de la población mediante esta detección sistemática. Sin embargo, menos del 20% de todos los hombres entre los 18 y los 25 años, o entre los 26 y los 45 años de edad que frecuenta los bares, acudió a los establecimientos de salud. La repercusión a escala de la población de una detección sistemática realizada en los consultorios podría verse atenuada por una baja cobertura de los grupos más vulnerables.