Curbing the major and growing threats from invasive alien species is urgent and achievable.

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.

Global indicators of the environmental impacts of invasive alien species and their information adequacy.

Monitoring the extent to which invasive alien species (IAS) negatively impact the environment is crucial for understanding and mitigating biological invasions. Indeed, such information is vital for achieving Target 6 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, to-date indicators for tracking the environmental impacts of IAS have been either lacking or insufficient. Capitalizing on advances in data availability and impact assessment protocols, we developed environmental impact indicators to track realized and potential impacts of IAS. We also developed an information status indicator to assess the adequacy of the data underlying the impact indicators. We used data on 75 naturalized amphibians from 82 countries to demonstrate the indicators at a global scale. The information status indicator shows variation in the reliability of the data and highlights areas where absence of impact should be interpreted with caution. Impact indicators show that growth in potential impacts are dominated by predatory species, while potential impacts from both predation and disease transmission are distributed worldwide. Using open access data, the indicators are reproducible and adaptable across scales and taxa and can be used to assess global trends and distributions of IAS, assisting authorities in prioritizing control efforts and identifying areas at risk of future invasions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

A nature-positive future with biological invasions: theory, decision support and research needs.

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere.

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Including a diverse set of voices to address biological invasions.

Inclusivity is fundamental to progress in understanding and addressing the global phenomena of biological invasions because inclusivity fosters a breadth of perspectives, knowledge, and solutions. Here, we report on how the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessment on invasive alien species (IAS) prioritized inclusivity, the benefits of this approach, and the remaining challenges.

A globally integrated structure of taxonomy to support biodiversity science and conservation.

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on the coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commonality in taxonomic information required for integration. We identify essential taxonomic elements from our interoperability assessment to support improved access and integration of taxonomic data. A stronger focus on these elements has the potential to involve taxonomic communities in biodiversity science and overcome broken linkages currently limiting research capacity. We encourage a community effort to democratize taxonomic expertise and language in order to facilitate maximum interoperability and integration.

Invasive alien insects represent a clear but variable threat to biodiversity.

Invasive alien insects are an important yet understudied component of the general threat that biological invasions pose to biodiversity. We quantified the breadth and level of this threat by performing environmental impact assessments using a modified version of the Environmental Impact Assessment for Alien Taxa (EICAT) framework. This represents the largest effort to date on quantify the environmental impacts of invasive alien insects. Using a relatively large and taxonomically representative set of insect species that have established non-native populations around the globe, we tested hypotheses on: (1) socioeconomic and (2) taxonomic biases, (3) relationship between range size and impact severity and (4) island susceptibility. Socioeconomic pests had marginally more environmental impact information than non-pests and, as expected, impact information was geographically and taxonomically skewed. Species with larger introduced ranges were more likely, on average, to have the most severe local environmental impacts (i.e. a global maximum impact severity of 'Major'). The island susceptibility hypothesis found no support, and both island and mainland systems experience similar numbers of high severity impacts. These results demonstrate the high variability, both within and across species, in the ways and extents to which invasive insects impact biodiversity, even within the highest profile invaders. However, the environmental impact knowledge base requires greater taxonomic and geographic coverage, so that hypotheses about invasion impact can be developed towards identifying generalities in the biogeography of invasion impacts.

Introduced and invasive alien species of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Islands.

Open data on biological invasions are particularly critical in regions that are co-governed and/or where multiple independent parties have responsibility for preventing and controlling invasive alien species. The Antarctic is one such region where, in spite of multiple examples of invasion policy and management success, open, centralised data are not yet available. This dataset provides current and comprehensive information available on the identity, localities, establishment, eradication status, dates of introduction, habitat, and evidence of impact of known introduced and invasive alien species for the terrestrial and freshwater Antarctic and Southern Ocean region. It includes 3066 records for 1204 taxa and 36 individual localities. The evidence indicates that close to half of these species are not having an invasive impact, and that ~ 13% of records are of species considered locally invasive. The data are provided using current biodiversity and invasive alien species data and terminology standards. They provide a baseline for updating and maintaining the foundational knowledge needed to halt the rapidly growing risk of biological invasion in the region.

GIRAE: a generalised approach for linking the total impact of invasion to species' range, abundance and per-unit effects.

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3-19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the relationship between the three components of impact, an approach we term GIRAE (Generalised Impact = Range size × Abundance × per-unit Effect). We discuss how GIRAE can be applied to multiple types of impact, including environmental impacts, damage and management costs. We propose two methods for applying GIRAE. The species-specific method computes the relationship between impact, range size, abundance and per-unit effect for a given species across multiple invaded sites or regions of different sizes. The multi-species method combines data from multiple species across multiple sites or regions to calculate a per-unit effect for each species and is computed using a single regression model. The species-specific method is more accurate, but it requires a large amount of data for each species and assumes a constant per-unit effect for a species across the invaded area. The multi-species method is more easily applicable and data-parsimonious, but assumes the same relationship between impact, range size and abundance for all considered species. We illustrate these methods using data about money spent managing plant invasions in different biomes of South Africa. We found clear differences between species in terms of money spent per unit area invaded, with per-unit expenditure varying substantially between biomes for some species-insights that are useful for monitoring and evaluating management. GIRAE offers a versatile and practical method that can be applied to many different types of data to better understand and manage the impacts of biological invasions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02836-0.

Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species.

The Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species (GRIIS) is a collation of data across 196 individual country checklists of alien species, along with a designation of those species with evidence of impact at a country level. The Compendium provides a baseline for monitoring the distribution and invasion status of all major taxonomic groups, and can be used for the purpose of global analyses of introduced (alien, non-native, exotic) and invasive species (invasive alien species), including regional, single and multi-species taxon assessments and comparisons. It enables exploration of gaps and inferred absences of species across countries, and also provides one means for updating individual GRIIS Checklists. The Country Compendium is, for example, instrumental, along with data on first records of introduction, for assessing and reporting on invasive alien species targets, including for the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals. The GRIIS Country Compendium provides a baseline and mechanism for tracking the spread of introduced and invasive alien species across countries globally. Design Type(s) Data integration objective ● Observation design Measurement Type(s) Alien species occurrence ● Evidence of impact invasive alien species assessment objective Technology Type(s) Agent expert ● Data collation Factor Type(s) Geographic location ● Origin / provenance ● Habitat Sample Characteristics - Organism Animalia ● Bacteria ● Chromista ● Fungi ● Plantae ● Protista (Protozoa) ● Viruses Sample Characteristics - Location Global countries.

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

A multi-site method to capture turnover in rare to common interactions in bipartite species networks.

Ecological network structure is maintained by a generalist core of common species. However, rare species contribute substantially to both the species and functional diversity of networks. Capturing changes in species composition and interactions, measured as turnover, is central to understanding the contribution of rare and common species and their interactions. Due to a large contribution of rare interactions, the pairwise metrics used to quantify interaction turnover are, however, sensitive to compositional change in the interactions of, often rare, peripheral specialists rather than common generalists in the network. Here we expand on pairwise interaction turnover using a multi-site metric that enables quantifying turnover in rare to common interactions (in terms of occurrence of interactions). The metric further separates this turnover into interaction turnover due to species turnover and interaction rewiring. We demonstrate the application and value of this method using a host-parasitoid system sampled along gradients of environmental modification. In the study system, both the type and amount of habitat needed to maintain interaction composition depended on the properties of the interactions considered, that is, from rare to common. The analyses further revealed the potential of host switching to prevent or delay species loss, and thereby buffer the system from perturbation. Multi-site interaction turnover provides a comprehensive measure of network change that can, for example, detect ecological thresholds to habitat loss for rare to common interactions. Accurate description of turnover in common, in addition to rare, species and their interactions is particularly relevant for understanding how network structure and function can be maintained.

Mechanistic reconciliation of community and invasion ecology.

Community and invasion ecology have mostly grown independently. There is substantial overlap in the processes captured by different models in the two fields, and various frameworks have been developed to reduce this redundancy and synthesize information content. Despite broad recognition that community and invasion ecology are interconnected, a process-based framework synthesizing models across these two fields is lacking. Here we review 65 representative community and invasion models and propose a common framework articulated around six processes (dispersal, drift, abiotic interactions, within-guild interactions, cross-guild interactions, and genetic changes). The framework is designed to synthesize the content of the two fields, provide a general perspective on their development, and enable their comparison. The application of this framework and of a novel method based on network theory reveals some lack of coherence between the two fields, despite some historical similarities. Community ecology models are characterized by combinations of multiple processes, likely reflecting the search for an overarching theory to explain community assembly and structure, drawing predominantly on interaction processes, but also accounting largely for the other processes. In contrast, most models in invasion ecology invoke fewer processes and focus more on interactions between introduced species and their novel biotic and abiotic environment. The historical dominance of interaction processes and their independent developments in the two fields is also reflected in the lower level of coherence for models involving interactions, compared to models involving dispersal, drift, and genetic changes. It appears that community ecology, with a longer history than invasion ecology, has transitioned from the search for single explanations for patterns observed in nature to investigate how processes may interact mechanistically, thereby generating and testing hypotheses. Our framework paves the way for a similar transition in invasion ecology, to better capture the dynamics of multiple alien species introduced in complex communities. Reciprocally, applying insights from invasion to community ecology will help us understand and predict the future of ecological communities in the Anthropocene, in which human activities are weakening species' natural boundaries. Ultimately, the successful integration of the two fields could advance a predictive ecology that is urgently required in a rapidly changing world.

Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic.

Globally, collapse of ecosystems-potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function-imperils biodiversity, human health and well-being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2 , from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic 'presses' and/or acute 'pulses', drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5-17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles-abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three-step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Interspecific facilitation mediates the outcome of intraspecific interactions across an elevational gradient.

Where interspecific facilitation favors the establishment of high densities of a beneficiary species, strong intraspecific competition may subsequently impede beneficiary performance. Consequently, the negative influence of intraspecific competition between beneficiary individuals could potentially outweigh the positive influence of interspecific facilitation when, for example, higher densities of a beneficiary are negated by the negative effect of crowding on beneficiary reproduction. The aim of this study was, therefore, to examine the impact of an interspecific interaction on the outcome of intraspecific interactions within the context of plant-plant facilitation. We used the cushion-forming Azorella selago and a commonly co-occurring dominant perennial grass species, Agrostis magellanica, on sub-Antarctic Marion Island as a model system. We assessed the impact of an interspecific interaction (between A. selago and A. magellanica) on the outcome of intraspecific interactions (between A. magellanica individuals), by testing if the impact of A. magellanica density on A. magellanica performance is mediated by its interaction with A. selago. We observed evidence for competition among A. magellanica conspecifics, with a decreasing proportion of A. magellanica individuals being reproductive under higher conspecific density. This negative intraspecific effect was greater on A. selago than on the adjacent substrate, suggesting that the facilitative effect of A. selago changes the intensity of intraspecific interactions between A. magellanica individuals. However, experimentally reducing A. magellanica density did not affect the species' performance. We also observed that the effect of A. selago on A. magellanica was positive, and despite the negative effect of intraspecific density on the proportion of reproductive A. magellanica individuals, the net reproductive effort of A. magellanica (i.e., the density of reproductive individuals) was significantly greater on A. selago than on the adjacent substrate. These results highlight that, in abiotically severe environments, the positive effects of interspecific facilitation by a benefactor species may outweigh the negative effects of intraspecific competition among beneficiaries. More broadly, these results suggest that both positive inter- and intraspecific biotic interactions may be key to consider when examining spatial and temporal variation in species' performance.

Soil Bacterial Communities Exhibit Strong Biogeographic Patterns at Fine Taxonomic Resolution.

Bacteria have been inferred to exhibit relatively weak biogeographic patterns. To what extent such findings reflect true biological phenomena or methodological artifacts remains unclear. Here, we addressed this question by analyzing the turnover of soil bacterial communities from three data sets. We applied three methodological innovations: (i) design of a hierarchical sampling scheme to disentangle environmental from spatial factors driving turnover; (ii) resolution of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variants to enable higher-resolution community profiling; and (iii) application of the new metric zeta diversity to analyze multisite turnover and drivers. At fine taxonomic resolution, rapid compositional turnover was observed across multiple spatial scales. Turnover was overwhelmingly driven by deterministic processes and influenced by the rare biosphere. The communities also exhibited strong distance decay patterns and taxon-area relationships, with z values within the interquartile range reported for macroorganisms. These biogeographical patterns were weakened upon applying two standard approaches to process community sequencing data: clustering sequences at 97% identity threshold and/or filtering the rare biosphere (sequences lower than 0.05% relative abundance). Comparable findings were made across local, regional, and global data sets and when using shotgun metagenomic markers. Altogether, these findings suggest that bacteria exhibit strong biogeographic patterns, but these signals can be obscured by methodological limitations. We advocate various innovations, including using zeta diversity, to advance the study of microbial biogeography.IMPORTANCE It is commonly thought that bacterial distributions show lower spatial variation than for multicellular organisms. In this article, we present evidence that these inferences are artifacts caused by methodological limitations. Through leveraging innovations in sampling design, sequence processing, and diversity analysis, we provide multifaceted evidence that bacterial communities in fact exhibit strong distribution patterns. This is driven by selection due to factors such as local soil characteristics. Altogether, these findings suggest that the processes underpinning diversity patterns are more unified across all domains of life than previously thought, which has broad implications for the understanding and management of soil biodiversity.

Basal tolerance but not plasticity gives invasive springtails the advantage in an assemblage setting.

As global climates change, alien species are anticipated to have a growing advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts, mediated through consistent trait differences between the groups. These insights have largely been developed based on interspecific comparisons using multiple species examined from different locations. Whether such consistent physiological trait differences are present within assemblages is not well understood, especially for animals. Yet, it is at the assemblage level that interactions play out. Here, we examine whether physiological trait differences observed at the interspecific level are also applicable to assemblages. We focus on the Collembola, an important component of the soil fauna characterized by invasions globally, and five traits related to fitness: critical thermal maximum, minimum and range, desiccation resistance and egg development rate. We test the predictions that the alien component of a local assemblage has greater basal physiological tolerances or higher rates, and more pronounced phenotypic plasticity than the indigenous component. Basal critical thermal maximum, thermal tolerance range, desiccation resistance, optimum temperature for egg development, the rate of development at that optimum and the upper temperature limiting egg hatching success are all significantly higher, on average, for the alien than the indigenous components of the assemblage. Outcomes for critical thermal minimum are variable. No significant differences in phenotypic plasticity exist between the alien and indigenous components of the assemblage. These results are consistent with previous interspecific studies investigating basal thermal tolerance limits and development rates and their phenotypic plasticity, in arthropods, but are inconsistent with results from previous work on desiccation resistance. Thus, for the Collembola, the anticipated advantage of alien over indigenous species under warming and drying is likely to be manifest in local assemblages, globally.

A conceptual map of invasion biology: Integrating hypotheses into a consensus network.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biology has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamental and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypotheses about biological invasions. To make these contradictions and redundancies explicit, and to gain insight into the field's current theoretical structure, we developed and applied a Delphi approach to create a consensus network of 39 existing invasion hypotheses. RESULTS: The resulting network was analysed with a link-clustering algorithm that revealed five concept clusters (resource availability, biotic interaction, propagule, trait and Darwin's clusters) representing complementary areas in the theory of invasion biology. The network also displays hypotheses that link two or more clusters, called connecting hypotheses, which are important in determining network structure. The network indicates hypotheses that are logically linked either positively (77 connections of support) or negatively (that is, they contradict each other; 6 connections). SIGNIFICANCE: The network visually synthesizes how invasion biology's predominant hypotheses are conceptually related to each other, and thus, reveals an emergent structure - a conceptual map - that can serve as a navigation tool for scholars, practitioners and students, both inside and outside of the field of invasion biology, and guide the development of a more coherent foundation of theory. Additionally, the outlined approach can be more widely applied to create a conceptual map for the larger fields of ecology and biogeography.

Measuring continuous compositional change using decline and decay in zeta diversity.

Incidence, or compositional, matrices are generated for a broad range of research applications in biology. Zeta diversity provides a common currency and conceptual framework that links incidence-based metrics with multiple patterns of interest in biology, ecology, and biodiversity science. It quantifies the variation in species (or OTU) composition of multiple assemblages (or cases) in space or time, to capture the contribution of the full suite of narrow, intermediate, and wide-ranging species to biotic heterogeneity. Here we provide a conceptual framework for the application and interpretation of patterns of continuous change in compositional diversity using zeta diversity. This includes consideration of the survey design context, and the multiple ways in which zeta diversity decline and decay can be used to examine and test turnover in the identity of elements across space and time. We introduce the zeta ratio-based retention rate curve to quantify rates of compositional change. We illustrate these applications using 11 empirical data sets from a broad range of taxa, scales, and levels of biological organization-from DNA molecules and microbes to communities and interaction networks-including one of the original data sets used to express compositional change and distance decay in ecology. We show (1) how different sample selection schemes used during the calculation of compositional change are appropriate for different data types and questions, (2) how higher orders of zeta may in some cases better detect shifts and transitions, and (3) the relative roles of rare vs. common species in driving patterns of compositional change. By exploring the application of zeta diversity decline and decay, including the retention rate, across this broad range of contexts, we demonstrate its application for understanding continuous turnover in biological systems.

The influence of landscape, climate and history on spatial genetic patterns in keystone plants (Azorella) on sub-Antarctic islands.

The distribution of genetic variation in species is governed by factors that act differently across spatial scales. To tease apart the contribution of different processes, especially at intermediate spatial scales, it is useful to study simple ecosystems such as those on sub-Antarctic oceanic islands. In this study, we characterize spatial genetic patterns of two keystone plant species, Azorella selago on sub-Antarctic Marion Island and Azorella macquariensis on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Although both islands experience a similar climate and have a similar vegetation structure, they differ significantly in topography and geological history. We genotyped six microsatellites for 1,149 individuals from 123 sites across Marion Island and 372 individuals from 42 sites across Macquarie Island. We tested for spatial patterns in genetic diversity, including correlation with elevation and vegetation type, and clines in different directional bearings. We also examined genetic differentiation within islands, isolation-by-distance with and without accounting for direction, and signals of demographic change. Marion Island was found to have a distinct northwest-southeast divide, with lower genetic diversity and more sites with a signal of population expansion in the northwest. We attribute this to asymmetric seed dispersal by the dominant northwesterly winds, and to population persistence in a southwestern refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. No apparent spatial pattern, but greater genetic diversity and differentiation between sites, was found on Macquarie Island, which may be due to the narrow length of the island in the direction of the dominant winds and longer population persistence permitted by the lack of extensive glaciation on the island. Together, our results clearly illustrate the implications of island shape and geography, and the importance of direction-dependent drivers, in shaping spatial genetic structure.