Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast.

Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. To understand this seeming paradox and explore policy responses, we develop the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) and analyze the long-term evolution of coastal real estate markets. C-HOM incorporates changing physical attributes of the coast, economic values of these attributes, and dynamic risks associated with storms and flooding. Resident owners, renters, and non-resident investors jointly determine coastal property values and the policy choices that influence the physical evolution of the coast. In the coupled system, we find that subsidies for coastal management, such as beach nourishment, tax advantages for high-income property owners, and stable or increasing property values outside the coastal zone all dampen the effects of SLR on coastal property values. The effects, however, are temporary and only delay precipitous declines as total inundation approaches. By removing subsidies, prices would more accurately reflect risks from SLR but also trigger more coastal gentrification, as relatively high-income owners enter the market and self-finance nourishment. Our results suggest a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions in coastal communities and allowing property markets to adjust smoothly to risks from climate change.

Evidence of Biological Self-Organization in Spatial Patterns of a Common Tropical Alga.

AbstractTropical reef communities contain spatial patterns at multiple scales, observable from microscope and satellite alike. Many of the smaller-scale patterns are generated physiologically (e.g., skeletal structures of corals at <1-m scale), while some of the larger patterns have been attributed to scale-dependent feedbacks (e.g., spur and groove reefs at 10-100-m scales). In describing the spatial patterning of reef benthic communities at landscape levels, we uncovered unique spatial patterning among living marine algae. Populations of the calcifying green alga Halimeda were observed to form a consistent polygonal pattern at a characteristic scale of 3-4 m. The pattern showed no clear evidence of having been formed through biologically created shifts in hydrodynamical conditions or related mechanisms. In considering the specifics of Halimeda growth patterns, a model of self-organization involving separation and patterned extension is proposed, a mechanism revealed in some geological pattern formation. This observation reinforces the diversity of pathways by which striking spatial patterns can occur in ecosystems.

Variations in stability revealed by temporal asymmetries in contraction of phase space flow.

Empirical diagnosis of stability has received considerable attention, often focused on variance metrics for early warning signals of abrupt system change or delicate techniques measuring Lyapunov spectra. The theoretical foundation for the popular early warning signal approach has been limited to relatively simple system changes such as bifurcating fixed points where variability is extrinsic to the steady state. We offer a novel measurement of stability that applies in wide ranging systems that contain variability in both internal steady state dynamics and in response to external perturbations. Utilizing connections between stability, dissipation, and phase space flow, we show that stability correlates with temporal asymmetry in a measure of phase space flow contraction. Our method is general as it reveals stability variation independent of assumptions about the nature of system variability or attractor shape. After showing efficacy in a variety of model systems, we apply our technique for measuring stability to monthly returns of the S&P 500 index in the time periods surrounding the global stock market crash of October 1987. Market stability is shown to be higher in the several years preceding and subsequent to the 1987 market crash. We anticipate our technique will have wide applicability in climate, ecological, financial, and social systems where stability is a pressing concern.

Modelling the linkage between coral assemblage structure and pattern of environmental forcing.

Geographical comparisons suggest that coral reef communities can vary as a function of their environmental context, differing not just in terms of total coral cover but also in terms of relative abundance (or coverage) of coral taxa. While much work has considered how shifts in benthic reef dynamics can shift dominance of stony corals relative to algal and other benthic competitors, the relative performance of coral types under differing patterns of environmental disturbance has received less attention. We construct an empirically-grounded numerical model to simulate coral assemblage dynamics under a spectrum of disturbance regimes, contrasting hydrodynamic disturbances (which cause morphology-specific, whole-colony mortality) with disturbances that cause mortality independently of colony morphology. We demonstrate that the relative representation of morphological types within a coral assemblage shows limited connection to the intensity, and essentially no connection to the frequency, of hydrodynamic disturbances. Morphological types of corals that are more vulnerable to mortality owing to hydrodynamic disturbance tend to grow faster, with rates sufficiently high to recover benthic coverage during inter-disturbance intervals. By contrast, we show that factors causing mortality without linkage to morphology, including those that cause only partial colony loss, more dramatically shift coral assemblage structure, disproportionately favouring fast-growing tabular morphologies. Furthermore, when intensity and likelihood of such disturbances increases, assemblages do not adapt smoothly and instead reveal a heightened level of temporal variance, beyond which reefs demonstrate drastically reduced coral coverage. Our findings highlight that adaptation of coral reef benthic assemblages depends on the nature of disturbances, with hydrodynamic disturbances having little to no effect on the capacity of reef coral communities to resist and recover with sustained coral dominance.

Insights into coral reef benthic dynamics from nonlinear spatial forecasting.

Nonlinear time-series forecasting, or empirical dynamic modelling, has been used extensively in the past two decades as a tool for distinguishing between random temporal behaviour and nonlinear deterministic dynamics. Previous authors have extended nonlinear time-series forecasting to continuous spatial data. Here, we adjust spatial forecasting to handle discrete data and apply the technique to explore the ubiquity of nonlinear determinism in irregular spatial configurations of coral and algal taxa from Palmyra Atoll, a relatively pristine reef in the central Pacific Ocean. We find that the spatial distributions of coral and algal taxa show signs of nonlinear determinism in some locations and that these signals can change through time. We introduce the hypothesis that nonlinear spatial determinism may be a signal of systems in intermediate developmental (i.e. successional) stages, with spatial randomness characterizing early (i.e. recruitment dominated) and late-successional (i.e. 'climax' or attractor) phases. Common state-based metrics that sum community response to environmental forcing lack resolution to detect dynamics of (potential) recovery phases; incorporating signal of spatial patterning among sessile taxa holds unique promise to elucidate dynamical characters of complex ecological systems, thereby enhancing study and response efforts.

Influence of aggregation on benthic coral reef spatio-temporal dynamics.

Spatial patterning of coral reef sessile benthic organisms can constrain competitive and demographic rates, with implications for dynamics over a range of time scales. However, techniques for quantifying and analysing reefscape behaviour, particularly at short to intermediate time scales (weeks to decades), are lacking. An analysis of the dynamics of coral reefscapes simulated with a lattice model shows consistent trends that can be categorized into four stages: a repelling stage that moves rapidly away from an unstable initial condition, a transient stage where spatial rearrangements bring key competitors into contact, an attracting stage where the reefscape decays to a steady-state attractor, and an attractor stage. The transient stage exhibits nonlinear dynamics, whereas the other stages are linear. The relative durations of the stages are affected by the initial spatial configuration as characterized by coral aggregation-a measure of spatial clumpiness, which together with coral and macroalgae fractional cover, more completely describe modelled reefscape dynamics. Incorporating diffusional processes results in aggregated patterns persisting in the attractor. Our quantitative characterization of reefscape dynamics has possible applications to other spatio-temporal systems and implications for reef restoration: high initial aggregation patterns slow losses in herbivore-limited systems and low initial aggregation configurations accelerate growth in herbivore-dominated systems.

Herbivore space use influences coral reef recovery.

Herbivores play an important role in marine communities. On coral reefs, the diversity and unique feeding behaviours found within this functional group can have a comparably diverse set of impacts in structuring the benthic community. Here, using a spatially explicit model of herbivore foraging, we explore how the spatial pattern of grazing behaviours impacts the recovery of a reef ecosystem, considering movements at two temporal scales-short term (e.g. daily foraging patterns) and longer term (e.g. monthly movements across the landscape). Model simulations suggest that more spatially constrained herbivores are more effective at conferring recovery capability by providing a favourable environment to coral recruitment and growth. Results also show that the composition of food available to the herbivore community is linked directly to the pattern of space use by herbivores. To date, most studies of variability among the impacts of herbivore species have considered the diversity of feeding modes and mouthparts. Our work provides a complementary view of spatial patterns of foraging, revealing that variation in movement behaviours alone can affect patterns of benthic change, and thus broadens our view of realized links between herbivore diversity and reef recovery.

Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

Understanding human-landscape interactions in the "Anthropocene".

This article summarizes the primary outcomes of an interdisciplinary workshop in 2010, sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation, focused on developing key questions and integrative themes for advancing the science of human-landscape systems. The workshop was a response to a grand challenge identified recently by the U.S. National Research Council (2010a)--"How will Earth's surface evolve in the "Anthropocene?"--suggesting that new theories and methodological approaches are needed to tackle increasingly complex human-landscape interactions in the new era. A new science of human-landscape systems recognizes the interdependence of hydro-geomorphological, ecological, and human processes and functions. Advances within a range of disciplines spanning the physical, biological, and social sciences are therefore needed to contribute toward interdisciplinary research that lies at the heart of the science. Four integrative research themes were identified--thresholds/tipping points, time scales and time lags, spatial scales and boundaries, and feedback loops--serving as potential focal points around which theory can be built for human-landscape systems. Implementing the integrative themes requires that the research communities: (1) establish common metrics to describe and quantify human, biological, and geomorphological systems; (2) develop new ways to integrate diverse data and methods; and (3) focus on synthesis, generalization, and meta-analyses, as individual case studies continue to accumulate. Challenges to meeting these needs center on effective communication and collaboration across diverse disciplines spanning the natural and social scientific divide. Creating venues and mechanisms for sustained focused interdisciplinary collaborations, such as synthesis centers, becomes extraordinarily important for advancing the science.

Spatial dynamics of benthic competition on coral reefs.

The community structure of sedentary organisms is largely controlled by the outcome of direct competition for space. Understanding factors defining competitive outcomes among neighbors is thus critical for predicting large-scale changes, such as transitions to alternate states within coral reefs. Using a spatially explicit model, we explored the importance of variation in two spatial properties in benthic dynamics on coral reefs: (1) patterns of herbivory are spatially distinct between fishes and sea urchins and (2) there is wide variation in the areal extent into which different coral species can expand. We reveal that the size-specific, competitive asymmetry of corals versus fleshy algae highlights the significance of spatial patterning of herbivory and of coral growth. Spatial dynamics that alter the demographic importance of coral recruitment and maturation have profound effects on the emergent structure of the reef benthic community. Spatially constrained herbivory (as by sea urchins) is more effective than spatially unconstrained herbivory (as by many fish) at opening space for the time needed for corals to settle and to recruit to the adult population. Further, spatially unconstrained coral growth (as by many branching coral species) reduces the number of recruitment events needed to fill a habitat with coral relative to more spatially constrained growth (as by many massive species). Our model predicts that widespread mortality of branching corals (e.g., Acropora spp) and herbivorous sea urchins (particularly Diadema antillarum) in the Caribbean has greatly reduced the potential for restoration across the region.