Estimating the effect of transitioning to a strength-based alcohol tax system on alcohol consumption and health outcomes: a modelling study of tax reform in England.

BACKGROUND: Increasing the amount of alcohol taxation is among the most effective measures for addressing the rising global burden of alcohol harm. However, less is known about the effect of changing alcohol tax structures. Substantial reforms to UK alcohol taxation structures enacted in August, 2023, mean that all alcohol is taxed based on its ethanol content, beers and ciders sold in on-trade premises (eg, public houses) are taxed at a reduced rate (hereafter called draught relief), and beer and particularly cider remain taxed at lower rates than other alcohol of equivalent strength. We aimed to model the effect of these reforms on alcohol consumption and health and economic outcomes, and the effects of hypothetical alternative scenarios. METHODS: The Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model was used to estimate policy effects on alcohol consumption. The model is an individual-based microsimulation that uses data from the Health Survey for England, Living Costs and Food Survey, Hospital Episode Statistics, and the Office for National Statistics. Spending and revenues to retailers and the Government were estimated cumulatively for a 5-year period post-intervention. Policy effects on all-cause deaths, years of life lost, hospital admissions, and admissions costs were estimated cumulatively for a 20-year period post-intervention. FINDINGS: The reform was estimated to decrease mean weekly alcohol consumption per drinker by less than 0·05 (-0·34%) units (1 unit=8 g/10 mL ethanol), and prevent 2307 deaths and 11 510 hospital admissions during 20 years compared with no policy change. Removing draught relief was estimated to prevent 1441 further deaths and 14 247 further admissions. Hypothetical scenarios showed that removing draught relief would only slightly improve public health outcomes, and increasing tax rates for beer and ciders to match other drinks of equivalent strength would reduce consumption by a further 2·5 units per week (-17%) and deaths by approximately 74 465. INTERPRETATION: Alcohol tax structures based on alcohol strength enable tax policy to improve public health in a targeted way. However, the UK reforms are unlikely to substantially improve health outcomes as they do not raise taxes overall. Raising tax rates for the lowest taxed beer and ciders, which are favoured by those who consume harmful amounts of alcohol, could achieve substantially greater public health benefits and reduce health inequalities. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research and UK Prevention Research Partnership.

Solitary drinkers in Great Britain: How do their sociodemographic characteristics, consumption patterns, and drinking occasions differ from those who drink with others?

OBJECTIVE: Inequalities in alcohol-related harm may arise partly from differences in drinking practices between population groups. One under-researched practice associated with harm is consuming alcohol alone. We identify sociodemographic characteristics associated with drinking alone and the occasion-level characteristics associated with occasions when people drink alone. METHOD: A cross-sectional analysis of one-week drinking diaries collected between 2015 and 2019 was conducted using event-level data on 271,738 drinking occasions reported by 83,952 adult drinkers in Great Britain. Our two dependent variables were a binary indicator of reporting at least one solitary drinking occasion in the diary-week at the individual-level and a binary indicator of drinking alone at the occasion-level (event-level). RESULTS: Individual-level characteristics associated with solitary drinking were being a man (OR 1.88, 95%CI [1.80,1.96]), aged over 50 (OR 2.60, 95%CI [2.40,2.81]), not in a relationship (OR 3.39, 95%CI [3.20, 3.59]), living alone (OR 2.51, 95%CI [2.37, 2.66]), and a high-risk drinker (OR 1.54, 95%CI [1.52,1.59]). Occasion-level characteristics associated with solitary drinking were that they were more likely to occur in the off-trade (OR 3.08, 95%CI [2.95,3.21]), Monday-Thursday (OR 1.36, 95%CI [1.27,1.47]), and after 10pm (OR 1.36, 95%CI [1.27,1.47]) controlling for geographic region and the month the interview took place. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of solitary drinking largely align with characteristics we associated with drinking problems. Those who partake in at least one solitary drinking occasion are overall more likely to consume alcohol at risky levels, however, the number of drinks consumed in each occasion was lower during a solitary drinking occasion.

How is alcohol consumption and heavy episodic drinking spread across different types of drinking occasion in Great Britain: An event-level latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: This paper aimed to (i) update a previous typology of British alcohol drinking occasions using a more recent and expanded dataset and revised modelling procedure, and (ii) estimate the average consumption level, prevalence of heavy drinking, and distribution of all alcohol consumption and heavy drinking within and across occasion types. METHODS: The paper uses a cross-sectional latent class analysis of event-level diary data that includes characteristics of 43,089 drinking occasions in 2019 reported by 17,821 adult drinkers in Great Britain. The latent class indicators are characteristics of off-trade only (e.g. home), on-trade only (e.g. bar) and mixed trade (e.g. home and bar) drinking occasions. These describe companions, locations, purpose, motivation, accompanying activities, timings, consumption volume in units (1 UK unit = 8g ethanol) and beverages consumed. RESULTS: The analysis identified four off-trade only, eight on-trade only and three mixed-trade occasion types (i.e. latent classes). Mean consumption per occasion varied between 4.4 units in Family meals to 17.7 units in Big nights out with pre-loading. It exceeded ten units in all mixed-trade occasion types and in Off-trade get togethers, Big nights out and Male friends at the pub. Three off-trade types accounted for 50.8% of all alcohol consumed and 51.8% of heavy drinking occasions: Quiet drink at home alone, Evening at home with partner and Off-trade get togethers. For thirteen out of fifteen occasion types, more than 25% of occasions involved heavy drinking. Conversely, 41.7% of Big nights out and 16.4% of Big nights out with preloading were not heavy drinking occasions. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption varies substantially across and within fifteen types of drinking occasion in Great Britain. Heavy drinking is common in most occasion types. However, moderate drinking is also common in occasion types often characterised as heavy drinking practices. Mixed-trade drinking occasions are particularly likely to involve heavy drinking.

Change and stability in British drinking practices and culture between 2009 and 2019: A longitudinal latent class analysis of drinking occasions.

Rationale: Theories of practice can support understanding of health-related behaviours, but few studies use quantitative methods to understand time-trends in practices. This paper describes changes in the prevalence and performance of alcohol drinking practices in Great Britain between 2009 and 2019. Methods: Latent class analyses of annual cross-sectional data collected between 2009 and 2019. The dataset come from a one-week retrospective diary survey of adults resident in Great Britain. It contains 604,578 drinking occasions reported by 213,470 adults (18+) who consumed alcohol in the diary-week. The measures describe occasion characteristics including companions, location, motivation, timings, accompanying activities and alcohol consumed. We estimate separate latent class models for each year and for off-trade only (e.g. home), on-trade only (e.g. bar) and mixed-trade occasions. Results: We identified fifteen practices; four off-trade only, eight on-trade only and three mixed-trade. The prevalence of practices was largely stable over time except for shifts away from drinking with a partner and towards drinking alone in the off-trade, and shifts away from Big nights out and towards other forms of heavy drinking in the on-trade. We identified five key trends in the performance of practices: (i) spirits increasingly replaced wine as the main beverage consumed in occasions; (ii) home-drinking moved away from routinised wine-drinking with meals on weekdays and towards spirits-drinking on weekends; (iii) the Male friends at the pub practice changed less than other pub-drinking practices; (iv) Big nights out started later, often in nightclubs, and involved less pub-drinking or heavy drinking and (v) the meal-based and Going out with partner practice formats showed few changes over time. Conclusion: Key recent trends in British drinking practices include a decline in routinised wine-drinking at home, a transformation of big nights out and a mixture of stability and change in pub- and meal-based practices.

Situated drinking: The association between eating and alcohol consumption in Great Britain.

Aims: This paper examines the co-occurrence of drinking alcohol and eating in Great Britain. Applying a practice-theoretical framework, it attends primarily to the nature and characteristics of events - to social situations. It asks whether drinking events involving food are significantly different from those without, whether differences are the same at home as on commercial public premises, and whether differences are the same for men and women. The focus is especially on episodes of drinking with meals at home, an infrequently explored context for a substantial proportion of contemporary alcohol consumption. Data: Employing a secondary analysis of commercial data about the British population in 2016, we examine reports of 47,645 drinking events, on commercial premises and at other locations, to explore how eating food and consumption of alcoholic beverages affect one another. Three types of event are compared - drinking with meals, with snacks, and without any food. Variables describing situations include group size and composition, temporal and spatial parameters, beverages, purposes, and simultaneous activities. Basic sociodemographic characteristics of respondents are also examined, with a special focus on the effects of gender. Results: Behaviours differ between settings. The presence of food at a drinking episode is associated with different patterns of participation, orientations, and quantities and types of beverage consumed. Gender, age, and class differences are apparent. Conclusions: Patterns of alcohol consumption are significantly affected by the accompaniment of food. This is a much-neglected topic that would benefit from further comparative and time series studies to determine the consequences for behaviour and intervention.

Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England.

AIMS: Evidence exists on the potential impact of national level minimum unit price (MUP) policies for alcohol. This study investigated the potential effectiveness of implementing MUP at regional and local levels compared with national implementation. DESIGN: Evidence synthesis and computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (Local Authority version 4.0; SAPMLA). SETTING: Results are produced for 23 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in North West England, 12 UTLAs in North East England, 15 UTLAs in Yorkshire and Humber, the nine English Government Office regions and England as a whole. CASES: Health Survey for England (HSE) data 2011-13 (n = 24 685). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, retailers' revenues, hospitalizations, National Health Service costs, crimes and alcohol-attributable deaths and health inequalities. FINDINGS: Implementing a local £0.50 MUP for alcohol in northern English regions is estimated to result in larger percentage reductions in harms than the national average. The reductions for England, North West, North East and Yorkshire and Humber regions, respectively, in annual alcohol-attributable deaths are 1024 (-10.4%), 205 (-11.4%), 121 (-17.4%) and 159 (-16.9%); for hospitalizations are 29 943 (-4.6%), 5956 (-5.5%), 3255 (-7.9%) and 4610 (-6.9%); and for crimes are 54 229 (-2.4%), 8528 (-2.5%), 4380 (-3.5%) and 8220 (-3.2%). Results vary among local authorities; for example, annual alcohol-attributable deaths estimated to change by between -8.0 and -24.8% throughout the 50 UTLAs examined. CONCLUSIONS: A minimum unit price local policy for alcohol is likely to be more effective in those regions, such as the three northern regions of England, which have higher levels of alcohol consumption and higher rates of alcohol harm than for the national average. In such regions, the minimum unit price policy would achieve larger reductions in alcohol consumption, alcohol-attributable mortality, hospitalization rates, NHS costs, crime rates and health inequalities.

Understanding changes in the locations of drinking occasions in Great Britain: An age-period-cohort analysis of repeat cross-sectional market research data, 2001-2019.

INTRODUCTION: The 21st century has seen wide-ranging changes in drinking locations in Great Britain, with on-trade alcohol sales decreasing and off-trade sales increasing. To better understand the underlying time-trends in consumer behaviour, we examine age-period-cohort (APC) effects related to changes in the share of individuals' drinking occasions taking place in: (i) on-trade versus off-trade locations; and (ii) specific on-trade or off-trade locations, that is traditional/community pubs, modern pubs/bars/café bars, nightclubs/late-night venues, restaurants/pub restaurants, social/working men's clubs, golf/other sports clubs/venues, at home (social setting) and at home (non-social setting). METHODS: Repeat cross-sectional 1-week drinking diary data, collected 2001-2019. APC analysis via negative binomial regression models for each gender (N = 162,296 men, 138,452 women). RESULTS: A smaller/declining proportion of occasions took place in on-trade compared to off-trade locations. Recent cohorts tended to have a larger share of on-trade occasions than previous cohorts, driven by their larger share of occasions in modern pubs/bars/café bars and nightclubs/late-night venues. Meanwhile, occasions in social/working men's clubs, golf/other sports clubs/venues and traditional/community pubs tended to be popular among older men, but have declined. Finally, the growth of off-trade drinking appears to be driven by a growth of off-trade drinking in non-social settings, in particular by older people/cohorts. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the declining prominence of certain on-trade locations, and increasing prominence of home drinking in non-social settings, within British drinking practices. While rising non-social home drinking is concerning, it is positive from a public health perspective that it does not appear to be shared by recent cohorts.

The impact of changes in COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on alcohol consumption and drinking occasion characteristics in Scotland and England in 2020: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 lockdown restrictions affect alcohol consumption. However, existing studies lack data on how drinking practices changed as restrictions disrupted people's work, family life and socializing routines. We examined changes in consumption and drinking occasion characteristics during three periods of changing restrictions in Scotland/England. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series analysis of repeat cross-sectional market research data (assessing step-level changes). SETTING: Scotland/England, January 2009-December 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Scotland: 41 507 adult drinkers; England: 253 148 adult drinkers. MEASUREMENTS: Three intervention points: March 2020 lockdown, July 2020 easing of restrictions and October 2020 re-introduction of some restrictions. PRIMARY OUTCOME: mean units consumed per week (total/off-trade/on-trade; 1 unit = 8 g ethanol). SECONDARY OUTCOMES: drinking > 14 units per week, heavy drinking, drinking days per week, solitary drinking, drinking with family/partners, drinking with friends/colleagues, own-home drinking, drinking in someone else's home and drinking start times. FINDINGS: In Scotland, March 2020's lockdown was associated with a 2.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.61, 4.02] increase in off-trade (i.e. shop-bought) units per week, a -2.84 (95% CI = -3.63, -2.06) decrease in on-trade (i.e. licensed venues) units per week, but no statistically significant change in total units per week. July 2020's easing of restrictions was associated with a 1.33 (95% CI = 0.05, 2.62) increase in on-trade units per week, but no statistically significant total/off-trade consumption changes. October 2020's re-introduction of some restrictions was not associated with statistically significant consumption changes. Results for England were broadly similar. Lockdown restrictions were also associated with later drinking start times, fewer occasions in someone else's home and with friends/colleagues, more own-home drinking and (in Scotland only) more solitary drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in on-trade alcohol consumption following COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in Scotland/England in 2020 were mainly offset by increased own-home drinking. This largely persisted in periods of greater/lesser restrictions. The shift towards off-trade drinking involved significant changes in the characteristics of drinking occasions.

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa. METHODS: We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence. RESULTS: We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology.

An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012.

INTRODUCTION: The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) describes how attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control guide health behaviour, including alcohol consumption. Dual Process Theories (DPT) suggest that alongside these reasoned pathways, behaviour is influenced by automatic processes that are determined by the frequency of engagement in the health behaviour in the past. We present a computational model integrating TPB and DPT to determine drinking decisions for simulated individuals. We explore whether this model can reproduce historical patterns in US population alcohol use and simulate a hypothetical scenario, "Dry January", to demonstrate the utility of the model for appraising the impact of policy interventions on population alcohol use. METHOD: Constructs from the TPB pathway were computed using equations from an existing individual-level dynamic simulation model of alcohol use. The DPT pathway was initialised by simulating individuals' past drinking using data from a large US survey. Individuals in the model were from a US population microsimulation that accounts for births, deaths and migration (1984-2015). On each modelled day, for each individual, we calculated standard drinks consumed using the TPB or DPT pathway. In each year we computed total population alcohol use prevalence, frequency and quantity. The model was calibrated to alcohol use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1984-2004). RESULTS: The model was a good fit to prevalence and frequency but a poorer fit to quantity of alcohol consumption, particularly in males. Simulating Dry January in each year led to a small to moderate reduction in annual population drinking. CONCLUSION: This study provides further evidence, at the whole population level, that a combination of reasoned and implicit processes are important for alcohol use. Alcohol misuse interventions should target both processes. The integrated TPB-DPT simulation model is a useful tool for estimating changes in alcohol consumption following hypothetical population interventions.

Is disinvestment from alcohol and drug treatment services associated with treatment access, completions and related harm? An analysis of English expenditure and outcomes data.

INTRODUCTION: The positive impact of substance use treatment is well-evidenced but there has been substantial disinvestment from publicly funded treatment services in England since 2013/2014. This paper examines whether this disinvestment from adult alcohol and drug treatment provision was associated with changes in treatment and health outcomes, including: treatment access, successful completions from treatment, alcohol-specific hospital admissions, alcohol-specific mortality and drug-related deaths. METHODS: Annual administrative data from 2013/2014 to 2018/2019 was matched at local government level and multi-level time series analysis using linear mixed-effect modelling conducted for 151 upper-tier local authorities in England. RESULTS: Between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, £212.2 million was disinvested from alcohol and drug treatment services, representing a 27% decrease. Concurrently, 11% fewer people accessed, and 21% fewer successfully completed, treatment. On average, controlling for other potential explanatory factors, a £10 000 disinvestment from alcohol and drug treatment services was associated with reductions in all treatment outcomes, including 0.3 fewer adults in treatment (95% confidence interval 0.16-0.45) and 0.21 fewer adults successfully completing treatment (95% % confidence interval 0.12-0.29). A £10 000 disinvestment from alcohol treatment was not significantly associated with changes in alcohol-specific hospital admissions or mortality, nor was disinvestment from drug treatment associated with the rate of drug-related deaths. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Local authority spending cuts to alcohol and drug treatment services in England were associated with fewer people accessing and successfully completing alcohol and drug treatment but were not associated with changes in related hospital admissions and deaths.

What Proportion of On-Trade Alcohol Is Served to Those Who Are Already Potentially Intoxicated? An Analysis of Event-Level Data.

OBJECTIVE: Overservice (i.e., venues serving alcohol to intoxicated drinkers) is a major contributor to alcohol-related harm. This article estimates the proportion of all alcohol sold in on-trade premises in Great Britain that is drunk by people likely to already be intoxicated. Secondary analyses explore variations by age and gender and from 2009 to 2017. METHOD: We used cross-sectional data from 1-week drinking diaries collected continuously from 2009 to 2017 via a nationally representative stratified quota sample of 90,968 adults resident in Britain who consumed alcohol in the on-trade across 139,938 occasions. We first identify the amount of pure alcohol consumed in occasions after individuals reach each of three consumption thresholds indicating potential intoxication: at least increasing risk (>48/64 g for women/men), at least high risk (>96/128 g), and very high risk (>144/192 g). We then calculate the proportion of all alcohol consumed in the on-trade each year that is accounted for by consumption beyond these thresholds. RESULTS: In 2017, of all on-trade alcohol consumed, an estimated 43.3% was drunk by those who had already drunk to increasing risk levels, 20.5% by those who had already drunk to high risk levels, and 10.1% by those who had already drunk to very high risk levels. Greater proportions of the alcohol consumed by women and younger people was consumed beyond these levels, but the proportion did not change substantially from 2009 to 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on the consumption threshold used, potentially intoxicated drinkers consume between 10% and 43% of pure alcohol drunk in on-trade venues in Great Britain, suggesting that overservice is commonplace.

Combinations of Drinking Occasion Characteristics Associated with Units of Alcohol Consumed among British Adults: An Event-Level Decision Tree Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is influenced by the characteristics of drinking occasions, for example, location, timing, or the composition of the drinking group. However, the relative importance of occasion characteristics is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify which characteristics, and combinations of characteristics, are associated with units consumed within drinking occasions. It also tests whether accounting for occasion characteristics improves the prediction of consumption compared to using demographic information only. METHODS: The data come from a cross-sectional, nationally representative, online market research survey. Our sample includes 18,409 British drinkers aged 18 + who recorded the characteristics of 46,072 drinking occasions using 7-day retrospective drinking diaries in 2018. We used decision tree modeling and nested linear regression to predict units consumed in occasions using information on drinking location/venue, occasion timing, company, occasion type (e.g., a quiet night in), occasion motivation, drink type and packaging, food eaten and entertainment/ other activities during the occasion. We estimated models separately for 6 age-sex groups and controlled for usual drinking frequency, and social grade in nested linear regression models. Open Science Framework preregistration: https://osf.io/42epd. RESULTS: Our 6 final models accounted for between 55% and 71% of the variance in drinking occasion alcohol consumption. Beyond demographic characteristics (1 to 9%) and occasion duration (24 to 60%), further occasion characteristics and combinations of characteristics accounted for 31 to 70% of the total explained variance. The characteristics most strongly associated with heavy alcohol consumption were long occasion duration, drinking spirits as doubles, and drinking wine. Spirits were also consumed in light occasions, but as singles. This suggests that the serving size is an important differentiator of light and heavy occasions. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of occasion duration and drink type are strongly predictive of alcohol consumption in adults' drinking occasions. Accounting for characteristics of drinking occasions, both individually and in combination, substantially improves the prediction of alcohol consumption.

Alcohol policy and gender: a modelling study estimating gender-specific effects of alcohol pricing policies.

AIMS: To describe gender differences in alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and alcohol-attributable harm. To model the effects of alcohol pricing policies on male and female consumption and hospitalizations. DESIGN: Epidemiological simulation using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18+ years, England. INTERVENTIONS: Three alcohol pricing policies: 10% duty increase and minimum unit prices (MUP) of £0.50 and £0.70 per UK unit. MEASURES: Gender-specific baseline and key outcomes data: annual beverage-specific units of alcohol consumed and beverage-specific alcohol expenditure (household surveys). Alcohol-attributable hospital admissions (administrative data). Key model parameters: literature-based own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 beverage-by-location categories (e.g. off-trade beer). Sensitivity analysis with new gender-specific elasticities. Literature-based risk functions linking consumption and harm, gender-disaggregated where evidence was available. Population subgroups: 120 subgroups defined by gender (primary focus), age, deprivation quintile and baseline weekly consumption. FINDINGS: Women consumed 59.7% of their alcohol as off-trade wine while men consumed 49.7% as beer. Women drinkers consumed fewer units annually than men (494 versus 895) and a smaller proportion of women were high-risk drinkers (4.8 versus 7.2%). Moderate drinking women had lower hospital admission rates than men (44 versus 547 per 100 000), but rates were similar for high-risk drinking women and men (14 294 versus 13 167 per 100 000). All three policies led to larger estimated reductions in consumption and admission rates among men than women. For example, a £0.50 MUP led to a 5.3% reduction in consumption and a 4.1% reduction in admissions for men but a 0.7% reduction in consumption and a 1.6% reduction in hospitalizations for women. CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and harm show strong gender patterns among adult drinkers in England. Alcohol pricing policies are estimated to be more effective at reducing consumption and harm for men than women.

A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models.

This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour mechanisms that give rise to the dynamics of population-level alcohol use: a single-theory model of norm theory and a multi-theory model that combines norm theory with role theory. The MBSSM architecture provides a computational environment within which theories based on social mechanisms can be represented, compared, and integrated. The architecture plays a fundamental enabling role within a wider simulation model-based framework of abductive reasoning in which families of theories are tested for their ability to explain concrete social phenomena.

Effects on alcohol consumption of announcing and implementing revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines: findings from an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In January 2016, the UK announced and began implementing revised guidelines for low-risk drinking of 14 units (112 g) per week for men and women. This was a reduction from the previous guidelines for men of 3-4 units (24-32 g) per day. There was no large-scale promotion of the revised guidelines beyond the initial media announcement. This paper evaluates the effect of announcing the revised guidelines on alcohol consumption among adults in England. METHODS: Data come from a monthly repeat cross-sectional survey of approximately 1700 adults living in private households in England collected between March 2014 and October 2017. The primary outcomes are change in level and time trend of participants' Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) scores. RESULTS: In December 2015, the modelled average AUDIT-C score was 2.719 out of 12 and was decreasing by 0.003 each month. After January 2016, AUDIT-C scores increased immediately but non-significantly to 2.720 (ß=0.001, CI -0.079 to 0.099) and the trend changed significantly such that scores subsequently increased by 0.005 each month (ß=0.008, CI 0.001 to 0.015), equivalent to 0.5% of the population increasing their AUDIT-C score by 1 point each month. Secondary analyses indicated the change in trend began 7 months before the guideline announcement and that AUDIT-C scores reduced significantly but temporarily for 4 months after the announcement (ß=-0.087, CI -0.167 to 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Announcing new UK drinking guidelines did not lead to a substantial or sustained reduction in drinking or a downturn in the long-term trend in alcohol consumption, but there was evidence of a temporary reduction in consumption.

Drinking contexts and their association with acute alcohol-related harm: A systematic review of event-level studies on adults' drinking occasions.

ISSUES: Event-level alcohol research can inform prevention efforts by determining whether drinking contexts-such as people or places-are associated with harmful outcomes. This review synthesises evidence on associations between characteristics of adults' drinking occasions and acute alcohol-related harm. APPROACH: We systematically searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid PsycInfo and the Web of Science Social Sciences Citation Index. Eligible papers used quantitative designs and event-level data collection methods. They linked one or more drinking contexts to acute alcohol-related harm. Following extraction of study characteristics, methods and findings, we assessed study quality and narratively synthesised the findings. PROSPERO ID: CRD42018119701. KEY FINDINGS: Searches identified 95 eligible papers, 65 (68%) of which study young adults and 62 (65%) of which are set in the United States, which limits generalisability to other populations. These papers studied a range of harms from assault to drink driving. Study quality is good overall although measures often lack validation. We found substantial evidence for direct effects of drinking context on harms. All of the contextual characteristics types studied (e.g. people, place, timing, psychological states, drink type) were consistently associated with harms. Certain contexts were frequently studied and associated with harms, in particular, weekend drinking, drinking in licensed premises and concurrent illicit drug use. IMPLICATIONS: The findings of our review indicate target drinking contexts for prevention efforts that are consistently associated with increased acute alcohol-related harm. CONCLUSION: A large range of contextual characteristics of drinking occasions are directly associated with acute alcohol-related harm, over and above levels of consumption.

Contextual characteristics of adults' drinking occasions and their association with levels of alcohol consumption and acute alcohol-related harm: a mapping review.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is a growing literature using event-level methods to estimate associations between contextual characteristics of drinking occasions, consumption levels and acute harms. This literature spans many research traditions and has not been brought together as a whole. This mapping review aimed to identify and describe the theoretical approaches to conceptualizing drinking occasions, study designs, predictors and outcome measures used in existing research with a view to identifying dominant approaches, research gaps and areas for further synthesis. METHODS: Eligible papers studied adults' drinking occasions using quantitative event-level methods and considered one or more contextual characteristics (e.g. venue, timing or company) and at least one event-level consumption or acute alcohol-related harm outcome. We systematically searched Ovid MEDLINE, PsycInfo and the Web of Science Social Sciences Citation Index, extracting data on studies' theoretical approach, data collection methods, settings, populations, drinking occasion characteristics and outcome measures. RESULTS: Searches identified 278 eligible papers (from 1975 to 2019), predominantly published after 2010 (n = 181; 65.1%). Most papers reported research conducted in the United States (n = 170; 61.2%) and half used student participants (n = 133; 47.8%). Papers typically lacked a stated theoretical approach (n = 203; 73.0%). Consistent with this, only 53 (19.1%) papers studied three or more occasion characteristics and most used methods that assume occasion characteristics do not change during an occasion (n = 189; 68.0%). The most common outcome type considered was consumption (n = 224; 80.6%) and only a few papers studied specific acute harm outcomes such as unprotected sex (n = 24; 8.6%), drink driving (n = 14; 5.0%) or sexual violence (n = 9; 3.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Studies from 1975 to 2019 using event-level methods to estimate associations between contextual characteristics of drinking occasions, consumption levels and acute harms were largely focused on students and consumption outcomes, and most have considered a limited range of contextual characteristics.

Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for us health policy appraisal.

Largescale individual-level and agent-based models are gaining importance in health policy appraisal and evaluation. Such models require the accurate depiction of the jurisdiction's population over extended time periods to enable modeling of the development of non-communicable diseases under consideration of historical, sociodemographic developments. We developed CASCADEPOP to provide a readily available sociodemographic micro-synthesis and microsimulation platform for US populations. The micro-synthesis method used iterative proportional fitting to integrate data from the US Census, the American Community Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Multiple Cause of Death Files, and several national surveys to produce a synthetic population aged 12 to 80 years on 01/01/1980 for five states (California, Minnesota, New York, Tennessee, and Texas) and the US. Characteristics include individuals' age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital/employment/parental status, education, income and patterns of alcohol use as an exemplar health behavior. The microsimulation simulates individuals' sociodemographic life trajectories over 35 years to 31/12/2015 accounting for population developments including births, deaths, and migration. Results comparing the 1980 micro-synthesis against observed data shows a successful depiction of state and US population characteristics and of drinking. Comparing the microsimulation over 30 years with Census data also showed the successful simulation of sociodemographic developments. The CASCADEPOP platform enables modelling of health behaviors across individuals' life courses and at a population level. As it contains a large number of relevant sociodemographic characteristics it can be further developed by researchers to build US agent-based models and microsimulations to examine health behaviors, interventions, and policies.

The role of personality functioning in drug misuse treatment engagement.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Personality functioning is predictive of drug misuse and relapse, yet little is known about the role of personality in engagement with the treatment process. This study aimed to estimate the extent to which broad- and facet-level characteristic adaptations contribute to or hinder treatment engagement, while controlling for psychosocial indicators. DESIGN: Multi-site cross-sectional survey. SETTING: In-patient treatment units covering 80% of residential treatment entries in Greece. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 338 service users, 287 (84.9%) male, 51 (15.1%) female, average age 33.4 years. MEASUREMENTS: Expressions of personality functioning (characteristic adaptations) were assessed using the Severity Indices of Personality Problems (SIPP-118). Treatment engagement was measured using the Client Evaluation of Self and Treatment, in-patient version (CEST). FINDINGS: Dysfunctional levels of relational capacities predicted counselling rapport [ß = 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.326-2.69, P = 0.013], treatment participation (ß = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.15-3.11, P < 0.001) and treatment satisfaction (ß = 1.65, 95% CI = 0.735-2.57, P < 0.001). Counselling rapport was also predicted by dysfunctional levels in self-control (ß = 1.78, 95% CI = 0.899-2.67, P < 0.001), self-reflective functioning at the facet-level (ß = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.01-3.46, P < 0.001) and aggression regulation (ß = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.438-2.42, P = 0.005). Dysfunctional levels on social concordance (ß = -1.90, 95% CI = -2.87 to -0.941, P = 0.001), emotional regulation (ß = 1.90, 95% CI = 0.87-2.92, P < 0.001) and intimacy (ß = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.31-3.05, P < 0.001) were significant predictors of treatment participation. Treatment readiness and desire for help predicted treatment engagement. CONCLUSIONS: In people attending substance use treatment services, maladaptive interpersonal patterns and relational intimacy, emotional dysregulation and impulse control may be associated with low levels of counselling rapport and treatment participation. Low frustration tolerance and aggressive impulses also appeared to predict low participation.