Development of electronic health record based algorithms to identify individuals with diabetic retinopathy.

OBJECTIVES: To develop, validate, and implement algorithms to identify diabetic retinopathy (DR) cases and controls from electronic health care records (EHRs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed and validated electronic health record (EHR)-based algorithms to identify DR cases and individuals with type I or II diabetes without DR (controls) in 3 independent EHR systems: Vanderbilt University Medical Center Synthetic Derivative (VUMC), the VA Northeast Ohio Healthcare System (VANEOHS), and Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB). Cases were required to meet 1 of the following 3 criteria: (1) 2 or more dates with any DR ICD-9/10 code documented in the EHR, (2) at least one affirmative health-factor or EPIC code for DR along with an ICD9/10 code for DR on a different day, or (3) at least one ICD-9/10 code for any DR occurring within 24 hours of an ophthalmology examination. Criteria for controls included affirmative evidence for diabetes as well as an ophthalmology examination. RESULTS: The algorithms, developed and evaluated in VUMC through manual chart review, resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.93 for cases and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.91 for controls. Implementation of algorithms yielded similar metrics in VANEOHS (PPV = 0.94; NPV = 0.86) and lower in MGB (PPV = 0.84; NPV = 0.76). In comparison, the algorithm for DR implemented in Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in VUMC yielded similar PPV (0.92) but substantially reduced NPV (0.48). Implementation of the algorithms to the Million Veteran Program identified over 62 000 DR cases with genetic data including 14 549 African Americans and 6209 Hispanics with DR. CONCLUSIONS/DISCUSSION: We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithms at 3 separate healthcare centers, with a minimum PPV of 0.84 and substantially improved NPV than existing automated methods. We strongly encourage independent validation and incorporation of features unique to each EHR to enhance algorithm performance for DR cases and controls.

Multi-omics characterization of type 2 diabetes associated genetic variation.

Discerning the mechanisms driving type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remains a challenge. To this end, we integrated omics information from 16 multi-tissue and multi-ancestry expression, protein, and metabolite quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies and 46 multi-ancestry GWAS for T2D-related traits with the largest, most ancestrally diverse T2D GWAS to date. Of the 1,289 T2D GWAS index variants, 716 (56%) demonstrated strong evidence of colocalization with a molecular or T2D-related trait, implicating 657 cis-effector genes, 1,691 distal-effector genes, 731 metabolites, and 43 T2D-related traits. We identified 773 of these cis- and distal-effector genes using either expression QTL data from understudied ancestry groups or inclusion of T2D index variants enriched in underrepresented populations, emphasizing the value of increasing population diversity in functional mapping. Linking these variants, genes, metabolites, and traits into a network, we elucidated mechanisms through which T2D-associated variation may impact disease risk. Finally, we showed that drugs targeting effector proteins were enriched in those approved to treat T2D, highlighting the potential of these results to prioritize drug targets for T2D. These results represent a leap in the molecular characterization of T2D-associated genetic variation and will aid in translating genetic findings into novel therapeutic strategies.

Variant level heritability estimates of type 2 diabetes in African Americans.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and environmental factors and is associated with an increased risk of cardiorenal complications and mortality. Though disproportionately affected by the condition, African Americans (AA) are largely underrepresented in genetic studies of T2D, and few estimates of heritability have been calculated in this race group. Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data paired with phenotypic data from ~ 19,300 AA participants of the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, Genetics of Hypertension Associated Treatments (GenHAT) study, and the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network, we estimated narrow-sense heritability using two methods: Linkage-Disequilibrium Adjusted Kinships (LDAK) and Genome-Wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA). Study-level heritability estimates adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry ranged from 18% to 34% across both methods. Overall, the current study narrows the expected range for T2D heritability in this race group compared to prior estimates, while providing new insight into the genetic basis of T2D in AAs for ongoing genetic discovery efforts.

Adaptive selection at G6PD and disparities in diabetes complications.

Diabetes complications occur at higher rates in individuals of African ancestry. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDdef), common in some African populations, confers malaria resistance, and reduces hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels by shortening erythrocyte lifespan. In a combined-ancestry genome-wide association study of diabetic retinopathy, we identified nine loci including a G6PDdef causal variant, rs1050828 -T (Val98Met), which was also associated with increased risk of other diabetes complications. The effect of rs1050828 -T on retinopathy was fully mediated by glucose levels. In the years preceding diabetes diagnosis and insulin prescription, glucose levels were significantly higher and HbA1c significantly lower in those with versus without G6PDdef. In the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, participants with G6PDdef had significantly higher hazards of incident retinopathy and neuropathy. At the same HbA1c levels, G6PDdef participants in both ACCORD and the Million Veteran Program had significantly increased risk of retinopathy. We estimate that 12% and 9% of diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy cases, respectively, in participants of African ancestry are due to this exposure. Across continentally defined ancestral populations, the differences in frequency of rs1050828 -T and other G6PDdef alleles contribute to disparities in diabetes complications. Diabetes management guided by glucose or potentially genotype-adjusted HbA1c levels could lead to more timely diagnoses and appropriate intensification of therapy, decreasing the risk of diabetes complications in patients with G6PDdef alleles.

Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Is Suboptimal in People With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction functions may not accurately predict CVD risk in people with HIV. We assessed the performance of 3 CVD risk prediction functions in 2 HIV cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: CVD risk scores were calculated in the Mass General Brigham and Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV cohorts, using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD function, the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) hard coronary heart disease function and the Framingham Heart Study hard CVD function. Outcomes were myocardial infarction or coronary death for FHS hard coronary heart disease function; and myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function. We calculated regression coefficients and assessed discrimination and calibration by sex; predicted to observed risk of outcome was also compared. In the combined cohort of 9412, 158 (1.7%) had a coronary heart disease event, and 309 (3.3%) had a CVD event. Among women, CVD risk was generally underestimated by all 3 risk functions. Among men, CVD risk was underestimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function, but overestimated by the FHS hard coronary heart disease function. Calibration was poor for women using the FHS hard CVD function and for men using all functions. Discrimination in all functions was good for women (c-statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.90) and moderate for men (c-statistics ranging from 0.71 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Established CVD risk prediction functions generally underestimate risk in people with HIV. Differences in model performance by sex underscore the need for both HIV-specific and sex-specific functions. Development of CVD risk prediction models tailored to HIV will enhance care for aging people with HIV.

Polygenic scores for longitudinal prediction of incident type 2 diabetes in an ancestrally and medically diverse primary care physician network: a patient cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic scores (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. METHODS: We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and family history of T2D; (3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; and (4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. RESULTS: PGS was associated with incident T2D in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of the top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk ((PGS-CRS interaction p = 0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Polygenic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in African Americans.

African Americans (AAs) have been underrepresented in polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we integrated genome-wide data from multiple observational studies on type 2 diabetes (T2D), encompassing a total of 101,987 AAs, to train and optimize an AA-focused T2D PRS (PRSAA), using a Bayesian polygenic modeling method. We further tested the score in three independent studies with a total of 7,275 AAs and compared the PRSAA with other published scores. Results show that a 1-SD increase in the PRSAA was associated with 40-60% increase in the odds of T2D (odds ratio [OR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.88; OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.70; and OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) across three testing cohorts. These models captured 1.0-2.6% of the variance (R2) in T2D on the liability scale. The positive predictive values for three calculated score thresholds (the top 2%, 5%, and 10%) ranged from 14 to 35%. The PRSAA, in general, performed similarly to existing T2D PRS. The need remains for larger data sets to continue to evaluate the utility of within-ancestry scores in the AA population.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.