Split scar sign to predict complete response in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the modality of choice for rectal cancer initial staging and restaging after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Our objective was to perform a meta-analysis of the diagnostic performance of the split scar sign (SSS) on rectal MRI in predicting complete response after neoadjuvant therapy. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched for relevant published studies through June 2023. Primary studies met eligibility criteria if they evaluated the diagnostic performance of the SSS to predict complete response on pathology or clinical follow-up in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation. A meta-analysis with a random-effects model was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of the SSS. RESULTS: A total of 4 studies comprising 377 patients met the inclusion criteria. The prevalence of complete response in the studies was 21.7-52.5%. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the SSS to predict complete response were 62.0% (95% CI, 43.5-78.5%) and 91.9% (95% CI, 78.9-97.2%), respectively. The estimated AUC for SSS was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.56-0.94) with a DOR of 18.8 (95% CI, 3.65-96.5). CONCLUSION: The presence of SSS on rectal MRI demonstrated high specificity for complete response in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. This imaging pattern can be a valuable tool to identify potential candidates for organ-sparing treatment and surveillance. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: SSS presents high specificity for complete response post-neoadjuvant. This MRI finding enhances rectal cancer treatment assessment and aids clinicians and patients in choosing watch-and-wait over immediate surgery, which can potentially reduce costs and associated morbidity. KEY POINTS: •Fifteen to 50% of rectal cancer patients achieve complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and may be eligible for a watch-and-wait strategy. •The split scar sign has high specificity for a complete response. •This imaging finding is valuable to select candidates for organ-sparing management.