RESUMEN
The magnitude of the nitrogen (N) limitation of terrestrial carbon (C) storage over the 21st century is highly uncertain because of the complex interactions between the terrestrial C and N cycles. We use an ensemble approach to quantify and attribute process-level uncertainty in C-cycle projections by analysing a 30-member ensemble representing published alternative representations of key N cycle processes (stoichiometry, biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and ecosystem N losses) within the framework of one terrestrial biosphere model. Despite large differences in the simulated present-day N cycle, primarily affecting simulated productivity north of 40°N, ensemble members generally conform with global C-cycle benchmarks for present-day conditions. Ensemble projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) show that the increase in land C storage due to CO2 fertilization is reduced by 24 ± 15% due to N constraints, whereas terrestrial C losses associated with climate change are attenuated by 19 ± 20%. As a result, N cycling reduces projected land C uptake for the years 2006-2099 by 19% (37% decrease to 3% increase) for RCP 2.6, and by 21% (40% decrease to 9% increase) for RCP 8.5. Most of the ensemble spread results from uncertainty in temperate and boreal forests, and is dominated by uncertainty in BNF (10% decrease to 50% increase for RCP 2.6, 5% decrease to 100% increase for RCP 8.5). However, choices about the flexibility of ecosystem C:N ratios and processes controlling ecosystem N losses regionally also play important roles. The findings of this study demonstrate clearly the need for an ensemble approach to quantify likely future terrestrial C-N cycle trajectories. Present-day C-cycle observations only weakly constrain the future ensemble spread, highlighting the need for better observational constraints on large-scale N cycling, and N cycle process responses to global change.
Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Nitrógeno , Carbono , Ciclo del Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
The response of the forest carbon (C) balance to changes in nitrogen (N) deposition is uncertain, partly owing to diverging representations of N cycle processes in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here, we examined how different assumptions about the degree of flexibility of the ecosystem's C : N ratios contribute to this uncertainty, and which of these assumptions best correspond to the available data. We applied these assumptions within the framework of a DGVM and compared the results to responses in net primary productivity (NPP), leaf N concentration, and ecosystem N partitioning, observed at 22 forest N fertilization experiments. Employing flexible ecosystem pool C : N ratios generally resulted in the most convincing model-data agreement with respect to production and foliar N responses. An intermediate degree of stoichiometric flexibility in vegetation, where wood C : N ratio changes were decoupled from leaf and root C : N ratio changes, led to consistent simulation of production and N cycle responses to N addition. Assuming fixed C : N ratios or scaling leaf N concentration changes to other tissues, commonly assumed by DGVMs, was not supported by reported data. Between the tested assumptions, the simulated changes in ecosystem C storage relative to changes in C assimilation varied by up to 20%.