Longitudinal associations between exclusive, dual and polytobacco use and respiratory illness among youth.

BACKGROUND: The health consequences of polytobacco use are not well understood. We evaluated prospective associations between exclusive, dual, and polytobacco use and diagnosed bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough among US youth. METHODS: Data came from Waves 1-5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We categorized time-varying past 30-day tobacco use into seven categories: (1) non-current use; exclusive use of 2) cigarettes, 3) e-cigarettes, and 4) other combustible products (OC; pipes, hookah, and cigars); dual use of 5) e-cigarettes + cigarettes or e-cigarettes + OC, and 6) cigarettes + OC; and 7) polyuse of all three products. The outcome was parent-reported diagnosis of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough among youth. We conducted weighted multilevel Poisson models (person n = 17,517, 43,290 observations) to examine the longitudinal exposure-outcome relationship, adjusting for covariates: sex, age, race and ethnicity, parental education, body mass index, secondhand smoke exposure, and household use of combustible products. RESULTS: Compared to nonuse, exclusive cigarette use (Risk Ratio (RR) = 1.83, 95% CI 1.25-2.68), exclusive e-cigarette use (RR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.15), combustible product + e-cigarette dual use (RR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.04), cigarettes + OC dual use (RR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.11-3.48), and polytobacco use (RR = 3.06 95% CI 1.67-5.63) were associated with a higher risk of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough. In additional analyses, we found that the risk ratio for polytobacco use was higher compared to exclusive e-cigarette use (RR 2.01 CI 95% 1.02-3.95), but not higher compared to exclusive cigarette use (RR 1.67 CI 95% 0.85-3.28). CONCLUSION: We found that exclusive, dual, and poly tobacco use were all associated with higher risk of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough compared to non-current use.

The Public Health Impact of a Ban on Flavored Cigars: A Decision-Theoretic Policy Framework.

INTRODUCTION: Half of adult cigar users report flavored cigars as their usual brand. The FDA proposed prohibiting "all characterizing flavors in cigars" and "menthol… in cigarettes." We provide evidence on cigar and cigarette transitions and a framework to assess the impact of a U.S. flavored cigar ban. METHODS: Using PATH Waves 1-4, we estimated use patterns and annual transitions among flavored cigars, non-flavored cigars, cigarettes, and among adults aged 18-34 and aged 35+. We also consider ENDS-related transitions. We developed a decision-theoretic framework for examining the impact of a flavored cigar ban alone, and the impact of a flavored cigar with a menthol cigarette ban with and without a non-tobacco flavored ENDS ban. RESULTS: Cigar users exhibited less stable use than cigarette users, with a large portion of cigar users switching to cigarette use each year. Past studies provide limited information on transitions between cigar and ENDS use. Our policy framework suggests that imposing a flavored cigar ban alone may be partially undermined by the substitution of menthol cigarettes for flavored cigars. While adding a menthol cigarette to a flavored cigar ban is expected to improve public health, a simultaneously implemented ENDS may offset some of the gains. DISCUSSION: Our analysis suggests the information necessary to gauge the public health impact of a cigar flavor ban alone and with flavor bans on cigarettes and ENDS. Further research is needed on ENDS vis-a'-vis cigar use, and the impact of enforcement and non-flavor-related policies on flavor ban effectiveness. IMPLICATIONS: Unlike menthol cigarette use and menthol bans, flavored cigar use and flavored cigar bans have received minimal attention. Transitions from cigars, especially dual and flavored use, are generally common compared to cigarettes. Our policy framework suggests important public health impacts. A flavored cigar ban absent a menthol cigarette ban may be partially undermined by the substitution of menthol cigarettes for flavored cigars. Adding a menthol cigarette ban is expected to offset such substitution and improve public health. However, simultaneously adding an ENDS with a flavored cigar and menthol cigarette ban may reduce the public health impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar flavor ban since flavored cigar users would be less able to substitute a lower-risk alternative.

Smoking patterns by birth cohort in Argentina: an age-period-cohort population-based modeling study.

Background: Argentina's smoking rates remain high. We aim to estimate Argentina age-specific histories of smoking initiation, cessation, prevalence, and intensity by birth-cohort to inform policy interventions. Methods: Modeling study. Data from three Argentinian nationally representative surveys conducted from 2004 to 2018 (n = 268,193) were used to generate smoking histories. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling (CISNET) Network Lung Working Group age, period, and cohort modeling approach was used to calculate smoking initiation and cessation probabilities, ever and current smoking prevalence, and intensity (cigarettes per day, CPD) by age, sex, and birth cohort from 1950 to 2018. Findings: Ever smoking prevalence increases with age up to 25 and decreases with birth cohorts after 1990. Smoking initiation peaks between 15 and 18 years of age. Among females, initiation probabilities increased until the 1955 cohort, reaching a second peak in 1980-85 cohorts and declining thereafter. Males have higher initiation probabilities than females. Among males, initiation has decreased since the 1950 birth cohort, with a slight increase around the 1985 cohort. Current smoking prevalence has been decreasing since the 1960 birth cohort, except for a peak in 1980-85 cohorts. Cessation increases with age. Mean CPD increases with age and peaks around age 40, appearing flat in females since the 1985 cohort. Interpretation: Recent birth cohorts seem to be experiencing lower rates of initiation, stable rates of quitting and lower current and ever smoking prevalence. The stabilization of cessation probabilities and mean CPD indicate the need to strengthen existing tobacco control measures and advance new ones. Funding: NIH/NCI U01CA253858 grant.

Birth-cohort patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use among adolescents in the US.

BACKGROUND: E-cigarette use has increased considerably among US adolescents. While many studies have described cross-sectional prevalence trends of youth e-cigarette use, less is known about cohort or generational initiation and use patterns. METHODS: We used data from the US National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) from 2014 to 2022 and age-period-cohort models to analyze age-specific patterns of e-cigarette use initiation and prevalence by cohort and calendar. For comparison, we also examined initiation and prevalence for cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco, using NYTS data from 1999 to 2022. RESULTS: Age-specific e-cigarette initiation and prevalence varied considerably by calendar year and birth cohort. There was a rapid increase in e-cigarette initiation and prevalence starting with the 1995 birth cohort, peaking with the 2005 birth cohort, and showing signs of decline with more recent cohorts. In contrast, there were substantial continuous reductions in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use initiation and prevalence by birth cohort. While the reductions in cigarette smoking started with the 1980s birth cohorts, cigar and smokeless initiation and prevalence did not decrease until the 1990-1995 cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their recent emergence, e-cigarette use has varied considerably across US adolescent cohorts. After early increases, e-cigarette use and initiation peaked with the 2005 birth cohort. These patterns are in contrast with the continuous decreases by cohort in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use and initiation. As the tobacco product landscape continues to evolve, it will be essential to monitor patterns of use of adolescent and young adult cohorts as they age into adulthood.

Cross-sectional patterns and longitudinal transitions of unflavored and flavored cigar use without and with cigarettes among United States adults.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of US adults who smoke cigars use flavored cigars, illustrating their broad appeal; however, their long-term impact on cigar and cigarette use is unknown. METHODS: Using restricted data from Waves 1-5 (2013-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, we investigated cross-sectional patterns and longitudinal transition rates of unflavored and flavored cigar use with and without cigarettes among a nationally representative sample of US adults. RESULTS: Proportionally, more adults who used flavored cigars without or with cigarettes were younger and female. More adults with exclusive cigar use were non-Hispanic Black. More adults with dual use had lower educational attainment. The median number of cigars smoked daily and tobacco dependence was highest among adults who used flavored cigars with cigarettes. Only 14.6% of adults with exclusive flavored cigar use at Wave 1 continued their use to Wave 5, with most transitioning to non-current (46.4%) or exclusive cigarette use (22.9%). Likewise, 13.8% of adults with dual flavored cigar and cigarette use at Wave 1 continued their use to Wave 5, with 57.6% transitioning to exclusive cigarette use and 19.7% transitioning to non-current use. Comparatively, 72.9% of adults with exclusive cigarette use continued their use to Wave 5, while 23.6% transitioned to non-current use. CONCLUSION: Adult cigar use was less stable than cigarette use, particularly among those who use flavored cigars. Future research should investigate whether these transition patterns between flavored and unflavored cigar and cigarette use vary across sociodemographic groups and their potential long-term health implications.

Ambient air pollution exposure and COVID-19 related hospitalizations in Santiago, Chile.

Morbidity and mortality from several diseases are increased on days of higher ambient air pollution. We carried out a daily time-series analysis with distributive lags to study the influence of short-term air pollution exposure on COVID-19 related hospitalization in Santiago, Chile between March 16 and August 31, 2020. Analyses were adjusted for temporal trends, ambient temperature, and relative humidity, and stratified by age and sex. 26,579 COVID-19 hospitalizations were recorded of which 24,501 were laboratory confirmed. The cumulative percent change in hospitalizations (95% confidence intervals) for an interquartile range increase in air pollutants were: 1.1 (0.2, 2.0) for carbon monoxide (CO), 0.30 (0.0, 0.50) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and 2.7 (1.9, 3.0) for particulate matter of diameter ≤ 2.5 microns (PM2.5). Associations with ozone (O3), particulate matter of diameter ≤ 10 microns (PM10) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were not significant. The observed effect of PM2.5 was significantly greater for females and for those individuals ≥ 65 years old. This study provides evidence that daily increases in air pollution, especially PM2.5, result in a higher observed risk of hospitalization from COVID-19. Females and the elderly may be disproportionately affected.

The Potential Impact of Oral Nicotine Pouches on Public Health: A Scoping Review.

INTRODUCTION: Oral nicotine pouches (ONPs) are a new class of nicotine products. This scoping review summarizes evidence on ONPs and explores their potential public health impact. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted a structured literature search for empirical studies across three electronic databases through January 10, 2024. Outcomes included ONP product characteristics, use patterns, beliefs and perceptions, toxicity, and marketing and sales. RESULTS: Sixty-two studies were included, 17 were industry-funded. Most studies were from the United States. While large variations across studies were observed in ONP youth prevalence estimates, nationally representative U.S. studies find current use at 1.5% and lifetime use below 2.5% through 2023. Between 35% and 42% of U.S. adolescents and young adults have heard of ONPs, and 9-21% of tobacco-naïve youth were susceptible to trying them. U.S. adult-use estimates varied widely (0.8%-3% current; 3%-16% lifetime use) and were limited to populations with a history of tobacco use. The chemical composition of ONPs suggests fewer harmful/potentially harmful compounds at lower levels than cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (SLT), except formaldehyde. Industry-funded studies find substantially less cytotoxicity compared to cigarettes and suggest that higher nicotine-strength ONPs can deliver nicotine at levels comparable to or higher than SLT or cigarettes, although with slower nicotine release than cigarettes. Evidence on the cytotoxicity of ONPs relative to SLT is mixed. CONCLUSIONS: ONPs appear to be less toxic than cigarettes and deliver comparable nicotine, presenting an alternative for combustible product users, although key data are mainly available from industry-funded studies. Data from independent research is critically needed. Industry marketing of ONPs may encourage initiation in youth and situational and dual use in adults. IMPLICATIONS: The review provides an initial assessment of the potential role of ONPs in harm reduction and aims to determine unintended consequences of their use (youth uptake and dual-use) and identify populations that disproportionately use the product. This information is essential for tobacco regulatory bodies in determining the net public health impact of nicotine pouches.

Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey.

INTRODUTION: Studies have reported that the rapid rise in heated tobacco product (HTP) sales in Japan accompanied an accelerated decline in cigarette sales. However, these studies do not distinguish whether those who previously smoked cigarettes became dual users with HTPs (smoking fewer cigarettes) or instead switched completely to HTPs. If HTPs present lower health risks than cigarettes, replacing cigarettes with HTPs is more likely to improve public health than cigarette users continuing as dual users. METHODS: To evaluate the role of HTP introduction relative to smoking prevalence, we examine trends in cigarette prevalence as related to trends in HTP use using Japan's National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) from 2011 to 2019. We develop measures of relative changes in smoking prevalence use by age and gender in the pre-HTP and post-HTP periods. We then analyse prevalence data by year using joinpoint regression to statistically distinguish changes in trend. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-HTP 2011-2014 period, cigarette prevalence decreased more rapidly during the post-HTP 2014-2017 period, particularly among younger age groups. However, the changing format of NHNS questions limits our ability to determine the impact on smoking prevalence, particularly after 2017. CONCLUSIONS: While suggesting that HTPs helped some people who smoke to quit smoking, this study also shows the difficulties in eliciting accurate survey responses about product use and distinguishing the impact of a potentially harm-reducing product in an environment subject to rapidly evolving patterns of use.

The Impact of Model Assumptions on Personalized Lung Cancer Screening Recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations regarding personalized lung cancer screening are being informed by natural-history modeling. Therefore, understanding how differences in model assumptions affect model-based personalized screening recommendations is essential. DESIGN: Five Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models were evaluated. Lung cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distributions were compared across 4 theoretical scenarios to assess model assumptions regarding 1) sojourn times, 2) stage-specific sensitivities, and 3) screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions. Analyses were stratified by sex and smoking behavior. RESULTS: Most cancers had sojourn times <5 y (model range [MR]; lowest to highest value across models: 83.5%-98.7% of cancers). However, cancer aggressiveness still varied across models, as demonstrated by differences in proportions of cancers with sojourn times <2 y (MR: 42.5%-64.6%) and 2 to 4 y (MR: 28.8%-43.6%). Stage-specific sensitivity varied, particularly for stage I (MR: 31.3%-91.5%). Screening reduced stage IV incidence in most models for 1 y postscreening; increased sensitivity prolonged this period to 2 to 5 y. Screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions among lung cancers detected at screening ranged widely (MR: 14.6%-48.9%), demonstrating variations in modeled treatment effectiveness of screen-detected cases. All models assumed longer sojourn times and greater screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions for women. Models assuming differences in cancer epidemiology by smoking behaviors assumed shorter sojourn times and lower screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions for heavy smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Model-based personalized screening recommendations are primarily driven by assumptions regarding sojourn times (favoring longer intervals for groups more likely to develop less aggressive cancers), sensitivity (higher sensitivities favoring longer intervals), and screening-induced mortality reductions (greater reductions favoring shorter intervals). IMPLICATIONS: Models suggest longer screening intervals may be feasible and benefits may be greater for women and light smokers. HIGHLIGHTS: Natural-history models are increasingly used to inform lung cancer screening, but causes for variations between models are difficult to assess.This is the first evaluation of these causes and their impact on personalized screening recommendations through easily interpretable metrics.Models vary regarding sojourn times, stage-specific sensitivities, and screening-induced lung cancer mortality reductions.Model outcomes were similar in predicting greater screening benefits for women and potentially light smokers. Longer screening intervals may be feasible for women and light smokers.

The potential impact of removing a ban on electronic nicotine delivery systems using the Mexico smoking and vaping model (SAVM).

Objective: To develop the Mexico Smoking and Vaping Model (Mexico SAVM) to estimate cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) prevalence and the public health impact of legalizing ENDS use. Methods: SAVM, a cohort-based discrete-time simulation model, compares two scenarios. The ENDS-Restricted Scenario estimates smoking prevalence and associated mortality outcomes under the current policy of an ENDS ban, using Mexico-specific population projections, death rates, life expectancy, and smoking and e-cigarette prevalence. The ENDS-Unrestricted Scenario projects smoking and vaping prevalence under a hypothetical scenario where ENDS use is allowed. The impact of legalizing ENDS use is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the ENDS-Restricted and Unrestricted scenarios. Results: Compared to a national ENDS ban, The Mexico SAVM projects that legalizing ENDS use could decrease smoking prevalence by 40.1% in males and 30.9% in females by 2049 compared to continuing the national ENDS ban. This reduction in prevalence would save 2.9 (2.5 males and 0.4 females) million life-years and avert almost 106 (91.0 males and 15.5 females) thousand deaths between 2025 and 2049. Public health gains decline by 43% to 59,748 SVADs averted when the switching rate is reduced by half and by 24.3% (92,806 SVADs averted) with a 25% ENDS risk level from that of cigarettes but increased by 24.3% (121,375 SVADs averted) with the 5% ENDS risk. Conclusions: Mexico SAVM suggests that greater access to ENDS and a more permissive ENDS regulation, simultaneous with strong cigarette policies, would reduce smoking prevalence and decrease smoking-related mortality. The unanticipated effects of an ENDS ban merit closer scrutiny, with further consideration of how specific ENDS restrictions may maximize public health benefits.

The prevalence and mortality risks of PRISm and COPD in the United States from NHANES 2007-2012.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. METHODS: We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007-2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3-4) and PRISm using FEV1/FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. RESULTS: Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007-2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9-2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0-5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7-2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7-6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007-2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

Longitudinal associations between exclusive, dual and polytobacco use and respiratory illness among youth.

Background: The health consequences of polytobacco use are still well not understand. We evaluated prospective associations between exclusive, dual, and polytobacco use and diagnosed bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough among US youth. Methods: Data came from Waves 1-5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We categorized time-varying past 30-day tobacco use into seven categories: (1) non-current use; exclusive use of 2) cigarettes, 3) electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), or 4) other combustible products (OC; pipes, hookah, and cigars); dual use of 5) ENDS + cigarettes or ENDS + OC 6) cigarettes + OC; or 7) polyuse of all three products. The outcome was incident diagnosis of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough. We conducted weighted multilevel Poisson models (person n = 17,517, 43,290 observations) to examine the longitudinal exposure-outcome relationship, adjusting for covariates: sex, age, race and ethnicity, parental education, body mass index, secondhand smoke exposure, and household use of combustible products. Results: Compared to nonuse, exclusive cigarette use (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 1.83, 95% CI 1.25-2.68), exclusive ENDS use (IRR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.15), combustible product + ENDS dual use (IRR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.04), cigarettes + OC dual use (IRR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.11-3.48), and polytobacco use (IRR = 3.06 95% CI 1.67-5.63) were associated with a higher incidence of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough. Conclusion: We found that exclusive, dual, and poly tobacco use was associated with higher incidence of bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough; Moreover, the incidence rate ratio for polytobacco use was higher than the incidence rate ratio for exclusive use compared to non-current use.

Dual and polytobacco use disparities at the intersection of age, sex, race and ethnicity, and income among US adults. Results from the 2018-2019 TUS-CPS.

Aim: We aim to describe disparities in dual and polytobacco use at the intersection of age, sex, race and ethnicity, and income. Methods: We used the 2018-2019 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to estimate the prevalence of combinations of dual (two products) and polytobacco (three or more products) use for cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco (n = 135,268). We created five mutually exclusive categories: 1) cigarettes and e-cigarettes, 2) cigarettes and cigars, 3) cigarettes and smokeless tobacco, 4) dual/polyuse without cigarettes, and 5) polyuse with cigarettes. We estimated the dual/polyuse prevalence at the intersection of age (18-34, 35-54, 55+ years), sex (male, female), race and ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and Non-Hispanic Other), and annual household income (<$50,000, $50,000-$99,999, ≥$100,000), resulting in 72 sociodemographic categories. We used a visualization tool that allowed for detailed characterization and identification of dual and polytobacco use disparities. Results: Females were in three of the top four groups with the highest cigarette and e-cigarette dual use. Cigarette and cigar dual use was disproportionately high among low-income Non-Hispanic Black male adults aged 35-54 and 18-34. The highest prevalence of both polyuse with cigarettes and dual/polyuse without cigarettes was among low-income, Non-Hispanic White male adults aged 18-34 years. Conclusion: We identified the population groups disproportionately using two or more tobacco products. This information is helpful for surveillance and for the implementation of tobacco control policies aimed at decreasing disparities in tobacco use.

Association between cigar use, with and without cigarettes, and incident diagnosed COPD: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While regular cigar smoking is believed to carry similar health risks as regular cigarette smoking, the impact of cigar use, alone or in combination with cigarettes, on obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been well characterized. The purpose of this study was to examine the prospective association between exclusive and dual cigar and cigarette use and incident self-reported diagnosed COPD. METHODS: This study used data from Waves 1-5 (2013-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults. Longitudinal data from adults aged 40 to 79 at Wave 1, without a pre-existing COPD diagnosis who participated at follow-up interview were analyzed. A time-varying current tobacco exposure, lagged by one wave and categorized as: (a) never/non-current use; (b) exclusive cigar use; (c) exclusive cigarette use; and (d) dual cigar/cigarette use. Multivariable models adjusted for demographics (age, sex, race or ethnicity, education), clinical risk factors (asthma, obesity), and smoking-related confounders (second-hand smoke exposure, other combustible tobacco product use, e-cigarette use, time since quitting, cigarette pack-years). The incidence of self-reported diagnosed COPD was estimated using discrete-time survival models, using a general linear modeling (GLM) approach with a binomial distribution and a complementary log-log link function. RESULTS: The analytic sample consisted of 9,556 adults with a mean (SD) age of 56 (10.4), who were predominately female (52.8%) and Non-Hispanic White (70.8%). A total of 906 respondents reported a diagnosis of COPD at follow-up. In the fully adjusted model, exclusive cigar use (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.57, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.21) was not associated with increased COPD risk compared to non-use, while exclusive cigarette use (aHR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.93) and dual cigar/cigarette use (aHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.85) were. CONCLUSIONS: Exclusive cigarette use and dual cigar/cigarette use were associated with diagnosed incident COPD. These results suggest that cigars, when used in combination with cigarettes, may be associated with poorer COPD health outcomes. Dual use may promote a higher likelihood of inhaling cigar smoke, and future research would benefit from examining whether inhalation of cigar smoke increases COPD risk.

Assessing the impact of increasing lung screening eligibility by relaxing the maximum years-since-quit threshold: A simulation modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the US Preventive Services Task Force expanded its lung screening recommendation to include persons aged 50-80 years who had ever smoked and had at least 20 pack-years of exposure and less than 15 years since quitting (YSQ). However, studies have suggested that screening persons who formerly smoked with longer YSQ could be beneficial. METHODS: The authors used two validated lung cancer models to assess the benefits and harms of screening using various YSQ thresholds (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and no YSQ) and the age at which screening was stopped. The impact of enforcing the YSQ criterion only at entry, but not at exit, also was evaluated. Outcomes included the number of screens, the percentage ever screened, screening benefits (lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained), and harms (false-positive tests, overdiagnosed cases, radiation-induced lung cancer deaths). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of restricting screening to those who had at least 5 years of life expectancy. RESULTS: As the YSQ criterion was relaxed, the number of screens and the benefits and harms of screening increased. Raising the age at which to stop screening age resulted in additional benefits but with more overdiagnosis, as expected, because screening among those older than 80 years increased. Limiting screening to those who had at least 5 years of life expectancy would maintain most of the benefits while considerably reducing the harms. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding screening to persons who formerly smoked and have greater than 15 YSQ would result in considerable increases in deaths averted and life-years gained. Although additional harms would occur, these could be moderated by ensuring that screening is restricted to only those with reasonable life expectancy.

Patient-Provider Discussion About Lung Cancer Screening by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Equitable Uptake of Lung Cancer Screening.

BACKGROUND: Physician-patient discussions regarding lung cancer screening (LCS) are uncommon and its racial and ethnic disparities are under-investigated. We examined the racial and ethnic disparities in the trends and frequency of LCS discussion among the LCS-eligible United States (US) population. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Health Information National Trends Survey from 2014 to 2020. LCS-eligible individuals were defined as adults aged 55 to 80 years old who have a current or former smoking history. We estimated the trends and frequency of LCS discussions and adjusted the probability of having an LCS discussion by racial and ethnic groups. RESULTS: Among 2136 LCS-eligible participants (representing 22.7 million US adults), 12.9% (95% CI, 10.9%-15%) reported discussing LCS with their providers in the past year. The frequency of LCS discussion was lowest among non-Hispanic White participants (12.3%, 95% CI, 9.9%-14.7%) compared to other racial and ethnic groups (14.1% in Hispanic to 15.3% in non-Hispanic Black). A significant increase over time was only observed among non-Hispanic Black participants (10.1% in 2014 to 22.1% in 2020; P = .05) and non-Hispanic Whites (8.5% in 2014 to 14% in 2020; P = .02). In adjusted analyses, non-Hispanic Black participants (14.6%, 95% CI, 12.3%-16.7%) had a significantly higher probability of LCS discussion than non-Hispanic Whites (12.1%, 95% CI, 11.4%-12.7%). CONCLUSION: Patient-provider LCS discussion was uncommon in the LCS-eligible US population. Non-Hispanic Black individuals were more likely to have LCS discussions than other racial and ethnic groups. There is a need for more research to clarify the discordance between LCS discussions and the actual screening uptake in this population.

Cigarette Prices and Disparities in Smoking Cessation in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Achieving cessation in people with established smoking patterns remains a challenge. Increasing cigarette prices has been one of the most successful strategies for lowering smoking rates. The extent to which it has remained effective in encouraging cessation among adults in recent years and how the effectiveness has varied by sociodemographic characteristics is unclear. AIMS AND METHODS: Using repeated cross-sectional data collected by the Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we investigate the relationship between cigarette prices and cessation from 2003 to 2019 in adults at least 25 years old. We examine the associations between price and cessation in the population overall and by sex, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: We found mixed support for associations between greater local prices and cessation. Unadjusted models showed that greater local prices were associated with greater odds of cessation, but the associations did not persist after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. The associations did not significantly differ by respondent characteristics. Sensitivity analysis using alternative specifications and retail state price as the main predictor showed similar results. Sensitivity analysis with controls for e-cigarette use in the 2014-2019 period showed that greater local price was associated with cessation among adults with less than a high school degree. When stratified by year of data collection, results show that greater local prices were associated with cessation after 2009. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the study adds to the conflicting evidence on the effectiveness of increasing prices on smoking cessation among adults with established smoking patterns. IMPLICATIONS: Higher cigarette prices have been one of the most successful tools for lowering smoking prevalence. It remains unclear how effective they have been in recent years in encouraging adults with established smoking patterns to quit. The study's results show that greater local prices were associated with higher odds of cessation, but the association did not persist after sociodemographic adjustment. In a sensitivity analysis, greater local price was associated with cessation among people with less than a high school degree in models controlling for e-cigarette use. We also found evidence that greater local price was associated with cessation after 2009. More comprehensive smoke-free coverage was also associated with greater odds of cessation. The study's results highlight that encouraging cessation among adults with an established smoking pattern remains a challenging policy problem even when cigarette prices rise.

Responses to Real-World and Hypothetical E-Cigarette Flavor Bans Among US Young Adults Who Use Flavored E-Cigarettes.

INTRODUCTION: E-cigarette flavor bans could reduce or exacerbate population health harms. To determine how US e-cigarette flavor restrictions might influence tobacco use behavior, this study assesses responses to real-world and hypothetical flavor bans among young adults who use flavored e-cigarettes. AIMS AND METHODS: An online, national survey of young adults ages 18-34 who use flavored e-cigarettes was conducted in 2021 (n = 1253), oversampling states affected by e-cigarette flavor restrictions. Participants were asked about their responses to real-world changes in the availability of flavored e-cigarettes. Unaffected participants were asked to predict their responses under a hypothetical federal e-cigarette flavor ban. RESULTS: The most common response to real-world changes in flavored e-cigarettes availability was to continue vaping (~80%). Among those who exclusively vaped, 12.5% switched to combustible tobacco. Quitting all forms of tobacco was selected by 5.3% of those exclusively vape versus 4.2% who dual use. Under a hypothetical federal ban, more than half of respondents stated they would continue vaping; 20.9% and 42.5% of those who exclusively vape versus dual use would use combustible tobacco. Quitting all tobacco products was endorsed by 34.5% and 17.2% of those who exclusively vape versus dual use. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults who vape flavored e-cigarettes have mixed responses to e-cigarette flavor bans. Under both real-world and hypothetical e-cigarette flavor bans, most who use flavored e-cigarettes continue vaping. Under a real-world ban, the second most common response among those who exclusively vape is to switch to smoking; under a hypothetical federal ban, it is to quit all tobacco. IMPLICATIONS: This is the first national survey to directly ask young adults who use flavored e-cigarettes about their responses to real-world changes in flavored e-cigarette availability due to state and local flavor restrictions. The survey also asked individuals to predict their responses under a hypothetical federal e-cigarette flavor ban. Most who use flavored e-cigarettes would continue vaping following e-cigarette flavor restrictions, but many would switch to or continue using combustible tobacco, highlighting potential negative public health consequences of these policies. Policymakers must consider the impact of e-cigarette flavor bans on both e-cigarette and cigarette use.

Responses to Real-World and Hypothetical Menthol Flavor Bans Among US Young Adults Who Smoke Menthol Cigarettes.

INTRODUCTION: Menthol cigarette bans have been implemented in some US states and localities, and a federal ban is being proposed by the FDA. This study asks how young adults who use menthol cigarettes respond to changes in menthol cigarette availability. AIMS AND METHODS: An online survey of young adults ages 18-34 who reported smoking menthol cigarettes on ≥7 of 30 days around Thanksgiving 2019 (n = 734), oversampling Massachusetts-the first state with a menthol ban. Participants reported their tobacco use behavior following real-world menthol cigarette bans or predicted their behavior under a hypothetical federal ban. RESULTS: Most respondents who exclusively smoked versus dual used with e-cigarettes continued smoking/using combustible tobacco following real-world bans (95.3% vs. 86.9%), accessing menthol cigarettes from other jurisdictions. Fewer who smoked exclusively responded by using e-cigarettes compared to those who dual used (3.9% vs. 43.7%). Quitting all tobacco use (ie, no smoking, vaping, or any tobacco use) was uncommon for both groups (3.6% vs. 9.0%). Under a hypothetical ban, majorities of those who exclusively smoke and who dual use predicted they would continue smoking (72.2% vs. 71.8%); fewer who smoke exclusively would use e-cigarettes compared to those who dual use (14.7% vs. 41.4%). Those who smoke exclusively were more likely to report quitting all tobacco compared to those who dual use (29.6% vs. 12.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Under real-world and hypothetical menthol cigarette bans, most respondents continued smoking. However, more young adults continued smoking following real-world bans, reflecting the limitations of local/state restrictions when menthol cigarettes are available in other jurisdictions. IMPLICATIONS: This survey asked young adults who use menthol cigarettes how they responded to real-world changes in the availability of menthol cigarettes; 89% reported continuing to smoke. Those who smoked exclusively were far less likely to respond by switching to e-cigarettes compared to people who dual used both products. Under a hypothetical federal menthol cigarette ban, 72% of young adults predicted that they would continue smoking. Quitting all tobacco was less common in the real-world scenario compared to the hypothetical ban. Access to menthol cigarettes in other jurisdictions and flavored cigars likely dampen the public health benefit of menthol cigarette bans.