Multicenter validation of FIB-6 as a novel machine learning non-invasive score to rule out liver cirrhosis in biopsy-proven MAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We previously developed and validated a non-invasive diagnostic index based on routine laboratory parameters for predicting the stage of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) called FIB-6 through machine learning with random forests algorithm using retrospective data of 7238 biopsy-proven CHC patients. Our aim is to validate this novel score in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). METHOD: Performance of the new score was externally validated in cohorts from one site in Egypt (n = 674) and in 5 different countries (n = 1798) in Iran, KSA, Greece, Turkey and Oman. Experienced pathologists using METAVIR scoring system scored the biopsy samples. Results were compared with FIB-4, APRI, and AAR. RESULTS: A total of 2472 and their liver biopsy results were included, using the optimal cutoffs of FIB-6 indicated a reliable performance in diagnosing cirrhosis, severe fibrosis, and significant fibrosis with sensitivity = 70.5%, specificity = 62.9%. PPV = 15.0% and NPV = 95.8% for diagnosis of cirrhosis. For diagnosis of severe fibrosis (F3 and F4), the results were 86.5%, 24.0%, 15.1% and 91.9% respectively, while for diagnosis of significant fibrosis (F2, F3 and F4), the results were 87.0%, 16.4%, 24.8% and 80.0%). Comparing the results of FIB-6 rule-out cutoffs with those of FIB-4, APRI, and AAR, FIB-6 had the highest sensitivity and NPV (97.0% and 94.7%), as compared to FIB-4 (71.6% and 94.7%), APRI (36.4% and 90.7%), and AAR (61.2% and 90.9%). CONCLUSION: FIB-6 score is an accurate, simple, NIT for ruling out advanced fibrosis and liver cirrhosis in patients with MAFLD.

Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Obesity: Do we Need two Operators for Accurate Evaluation of Liver Stiffness?

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Transient elastography is gaining popularity as a non-invasive method for predicting liver fibrosis, but inter observer agreement and factors influencing reproducibility have not been adequately assessed. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at Specialized Medical Hospital and the Egyptian Liver Foundation, Mansoura, Egypt. The inclusion criteria were: age older than 18 years and chronic infection by hepatitis C. The exclusion criteria were the presence of ascites, pacemaker or pregnancy. Three hundred and fifty-six patients participated in the study. Therefore, 356 pairs of exams were done by two operators on the same day. RESULTS: The overall inter observer agreement ICC was 0.921. The correlation the two operators was excellent (Spearman's value q = 0.808, p < 0.001). Inter-observer reliability values were κ = 0.557 (p < 0.001). A not negligible discordance of fibrosis staging between operators was observed (87 cases, 24.4%). Discordance of at least one stage and for two or more stages of fibrosis occurred in 60 (16.9%) and 27 cases (7.6%) respectively. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) is the main factor associated with discordance (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Although liver stiffness measurement has had an excellent correlation between the two operators, TE presented an inter-observer variability that may not be negligible.

Cancer incidence in egypt: results of the national population-based cancer registry program.

Background. This paper aims to present cancer incidence rates at national and regional level of Egypt, based upon results of National Cancer Registry Program (NCRP). Methods. NCRP stratified Egypt into 3 geographical strata: lower, middle, and upper. One governorate represented each region. Abstractors collected data from medical records of cancer centers, national tertiary care institutions, Health Insurance Organization, Government-Subsidized Treatment Program, and death records. Data entry was online. Incidence rates were calculated at a regional and a national level. Future projection up to 2050 was also calculated. Results. Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were 166.6 (both sexes), 175.9 (males), and 157.0 (females). Commonest sites were liver (23.8%), breast (15.4%), and bladder (6.9%) (both sexes): liver (33.6%) and bladder (10.7%) among men, and breast (32.0%) and liver (13.5%) among women. By 2050, a 3-fold increase in incident cancer relative to 2013 was estimated. Conclusion. These data are the only available cancer rates at national and regional levels of Egypt. The pattern of cancer indicated the increased burden of liver cancer. Breast cancer occupied the second rank. Study of rates of individual sites of cancer might help in giving clues for preventive programs.

Feasibility of breast conservation after neoadjuvant taxene based chemotherapy in locally advanced breast cancer: a Prospective Phase I trial.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is the standard care for locally advanced breast cancer. Our study aimed at evaluating the feasibility of breast conversation surgery (BCS) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty five patients had stage IIB (except those with T2N1 disease) and stage IIIA were selected to 3 cycles taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Patient who had tumours ≤5 cm underwent a tentative BCS while patients who had tumour size >5 cm underwent radical surgery. Negative margin is essential for BCS. Adjuvant chemotherapy and 3-D radiotherapy ± hormonal treatment were given to all patients. RESULTS: Thirty four patients had BCS. Response to chemotherapy was the only statistically significant factor which influences the BCS. Incidence of local recurrence was 5.9% for patients who had BCS at a median follow up 24 months. CONCLUSION: Breast conservation is feasible in selected cases of locally advanced, non metastatic cancer breast. We recommend that patients who have tumour size ≤4 cm after chemotherapy are the best candidates for BCS.

Estimation of the risk of transmission of hepatitis C between spouses in Egypt based on seroprevalence data.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) between spouses could be due to sexual contact, sharing needles, or other routes. There is uncertainty regarding the degree to which HCV is transmitted between spouses. METHODS: Data from a 1997 cross-sectional serological survey of HCV in two communities in Egypt were used to estimate the risk of transmission between spouses by simultaneously modelling the probabilities of community acquisition and spousal transmission of HCV as functions of known predictors. RESULTS: We estimate that the probability of wife-to-husband transmission was 34% (95% CI: 15-49%) and 10% (95% CI: 0-26%) for anti-HCV-positive wives with and without detectable HCV RNA, respectively. The probability of husband-to-wife transmission was estimated to be 3% (95% CI: 0-13%) and 0% (95% CI: 0-9%) for husbands with and without detectable HCV RNA, respectively, at the time of the survey. There was moderate evidence that the probability of wife-to-husband transmission differed from that of husband-to-wife transmission (P = 0.076), and there was greater risk of transmission from those with detectable RNA at the time of the survey (P = 0.046). We estimate that 6% of those infected acquired HCV from their spouse. CONCLUSION: Our study results support the possibility that HCV is transmitted between spouses in Egypt. Further research is needed to identify the exact routes of transmission so that preventive measures can be instituted.

Role of hepatitis C infection in chronic liver disease in Egypt.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is considered the most common etiology of chronic liver disease (CLD) in Egypt, where prevalence of antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) is approximately 10-fold greater than in the United States and Europe. Reported are results that show the role of HCV in both overt and occult CLD, the risk factors for CLD and for HCV infection, and the relative importance of chronic HCV, hepatitis B, or both in causing hepatic morbidity. Case patients included 237 new outpatients at the National Liver Institute. Controls comprised 212 sex- and age-matched neighbors without liver disease. Case patients were more likely than controls to report a history of blood transfusions, schistosomiasis, or parenteral therapy for schistosomiasis; to have anti-HCV, HCV RNA, hepatitis B surface antigen, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations; and to have abdominal ultrasound findings of cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and splenomegaly. Anti-HCV-positive case patients were more likely than anti-HCV-negative patients to be male, older, and farmers: to have received a blood transfusion or parenteral therapy for schistosomiasis; to have ALT elevations; and to have ultrasound findings of cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and spleen enlargement. Anti-HCV-positive controls were more likely than anti-HCV-negative controls to have received parenteral therapy for schistosomiasis. These data support the belief that HCV is the predominant cause of CLD in Egypt and suggest there is a large underlying reservoir of HCV-caused liver disease.